Month: October 2018

Rockies Watch List (2019)

In the Watch List series, we will examine four current players from each franchise with the best chance of one day cracking their All-Time Team.

Kyle Freeland

Position:  LHSP

2019 Age:  26

Career bWAR with Rockies:  11.7

Kyle Freeland was the 8th overall pick in the 2014 draft.  A Colorado boy who graduated from Thomas Jefferson High School in Denver, Freeland played his college ball in the Midwest for the University of Evansville.  A three-year starter for the Purple Aces, Freeland established himself as a high-floor starting pitching prospect due to excellent command of solid stuff.  

Despite his excellent performance as an amateur, there were questions about Freeland throughout his minor league career.  Injuries limited him to just nine starts in 2015.  He immediately fell from top-prospect status.

Although he was healthy enough to make 26 starts in 2016, his stuff did not grade out as well as it did before the injury-riddled 2015 campaign.  With just 108 strikeouts in 162 innings, Freeland no longer had the look of a clear-cut top prospect.

In a surprising turn of events, Freeland made the Rockies roster to open the 2017 season.  While he wasn’t dominant, he was healthy and effective.  In 156 innings, he worked to a 123 ERA+ and 3.2 bWAR in his rookie campaign.

Freeland broke out in a big way in 2018.  With a full big league season under his belt, he improved across the board.  His pure stuff was largely similar to his rookie campaign, but the way he used it changed. 

Freeland used more four-seam fastballs up in the zone rather than sinkers down to produce more swinging strikes.  The change up, which had been perhaps his best pitch as an amateur, was once again his bread and butter.  He threw the change twice as much as he had in his rookie year, mostly at the expense of fastballs, to devastating effect.  His walk rate dropped by half a batter per nine-innings, and his strikeout rate increased 1.5 per nine.

Freeland was among the best starters in the National League in 2018.  His 164 ERA+ and 8.4 bWAR both ranked fourth.  He was particularly excellent down the stretch, including a masterful 6.2 scoreless innings to help defeat the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game.

Outlook

With two excellent seasons to open his career, Freeland is tracking very well to make a run at the All-Time Rockies Team.  With 66 appearances and 358.1 innings under his belt, Freeland already has a shockingly good case for inclusion.

The Rockies current fifth starter is Jason Jennings.  Jennings produced 10.4 bWAR with a 103 ERA+ over 941 innings and six seasons in Colorado.  Freeland has already surpassed Jennings in career bWAR in less than half the innings.

Freeland currently has a career 143 ERA+.  The Rockies current number one starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, produced a Rockies career mark of 128.  

For the present, I have opted to make Freeland earn his inclusion on the All-Time Team with a larger body of work.  With that said, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Kyle Freeland is healthy in 2019 and doesn’t push for inclusion after just his third year in the big leagues.  

German Marquez

Position:  RHSP

2019 Age:  24

Career bWAR with Rockies:  8.1

German Marquez was born in San Felix, Venezuela.  At the opening of the international signing period on July 2, 2011, the 16-year-old Marquez signed with the Tampa Bay Rays for a $225,000 bonus.

Marquez came to the U.S. in 2013.  He got his first taste of full-season ball in 2014 at the age of 19.  By the end of 2015, Marquez had succeeded at High-A.  He showed a good mixture of command and arm strength, and was starting to look more like a legitimate prospect.

In January, 2016 the Rockies acquired Marquez as a secondary piece along with dominant left-handed reliever Jake McGee in exchange for outfielder Corey Dickerson and minor league infielder Kevin Padlo.  The big leaguers, McGee and Dickerson, each ended up providing value within the range of reasonably expected outcomes for their new teams.  The Rockies figure to win the trade on the strength of the emergence of Marquez as the best overall player in the deal.

Marquez had his best season in the minors in 2016.  He was excellent in Double-A before late promotions to Triple-A, then the majors.  Heading into 2017, Marquez was suddenly recognized as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

He started 2017 back at Triple-A Albuquerque before being recalled to Colorado in late-April.  Marquez threw 162 innings with an ERA+ of 115 to produce 3.2 bWAR.  With a mid-90s heater, and solid curve, it was clear that Marquez had the makings of a rotation building block.

Marquez took another step forward in 2018.  In 196 innings, he had a 124 ERA+ and produced 4.7 bWAR.  Improved usage of his devastating mid-80s slider transformed Marquez into one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball.  His 10.6 K/9 was fourth among NL starters.  With Freeland and Marquez leading the way, the Rockies found their way into the postseason as a Wild Card team.  

Outlook

Like Freeland, Marquez has a chance to stake a claim to a spot in the All-Time Rockies rotation in short order.  He has the foundation of a solid resume, and four years of team control remaining.

Marquez has a chance to join Freeland in passing fifth starter Jason Jennings in Rockies career bWAR by the end of 2019.  His career 118 ERA+, while not on Freeland’s level, would be behind just Ubaldo Jimenez and Jhoulys Chacin among the Rockies all-time starting pitchers.  

Freeland is ahead of Marquez on the watch list at present, but not by much.  The gap between the two could be closed within a year if things broke just so.  Beyond that, the Rockies all-time fourth starter, Aaron Cook, has a similar resume to Jennings with more innings to separate the two.  It is entirely possible that Freeland and Marquez could both force their way into the Rockies all-time starting rotation in the end.

Tyler Anderson

Position:  LHSP

2019 Age:  29

Career bWAR with Rockies:  7.5

Tyler Anderson was born and raised in Las Vegas, Nevada.  A 2008 graduate of Valley High School, Anderson was a 50th round draft pick of the Twins, but elected to enroll at the University of Oregon rather than play professional ball. 

Anderson was a three-year member of the starting rotation for the Ducks.  Similarly excellent sophomore and junior seasons propped the left-hander up into first round consideration.  The Rockies took Anderson with the 20th pick in the 2011 draft.

For an advanced college left-hander with a first round pedigree, Anderson’s climb through the Rockies system was hardly swift.  He was typically solid when healthy, but injuries nagged at him year after year.  By 2014, Anderson had made Double-A in his age 24 season, but still had not started more than 23 games in any single season of his career.

When elbow woes cost him all of 2015, Anderson’s stock plummeted.  For a player who increasingly looked like a back-end starting pitcher at best, a lost season at age 25 was hardly something he could afford.

When Anderson returned to the mound healthy in 2016, it was clear he had been underestimated at his lowest point.  It took him five starts in the upper minors to earn his first big league call up in June.  In 19 starts, Anderson went 114.1 innings of 137 ERA+ to produce 3.2 bWAR.

Anderson struggled to stay on the mound again in 2017.  He missed time in June, then all of July and August before returning in September.  He finished the year with 86 innings at 105 ERA+ at the big league level producing 1.2 bWAR.

Anderson was surprisingly durable in 2018.  He established new career highs with 32 starts and 176 innings.  He worked to 103 ERA+ and produced 3.0 bWAR.  Anderson combined with Freeland and Marquez to establish a new-look Rockies rotation capable of pitching the team into the playoffs.

Outlook

Anderson has now worked 376.1 innings at the big league level with a career ERA+ mark at 112.  With three years of team control remaining, Anderson probably has enough time to accumulate the necessary innings to put him in the discussion to pass Jason Jennings for the final spot in the team’s starting rotation.

Health will remain a concern for Anderson going forward.  While 2018’s durability represents significant progress, it’s hardly fair to call it a trend at this point.  Additionally, Anderson has looked like a back-end starter more often than not over the past two seasons.  If his effectiveness continues to drift closer to that of Jennings and Aaron Cook, his shorter track record would become a factor.

Beyond that, both Freeland and Marquez look like better bets to overtake Jennings and perhaps Cook at this point.  Anderson could more or less do his part but still end up on the outside of the final picture.  One or more of his current teammates could beat him to the punch, and raise the bar he has to clear.  In that way, Anderson is aiming at a moving target sitting behind Freeland and Marquez.

Jon Gray

Position:  RHSP

2019 Age:  27

Career bWAR with Rockies:  7.0

Jon Gray was born and raised in Oklahoma.  A 2010 graduate of Chandler High School, Gray was a 13th round draft pick of the Royals. 

Instead of signing a professional contract, Gray went the Junior College route, and enrolled at East Oklahoma State College.  Gray continued to show excellent stuff, prompting the Yankees to take him in the 10th round of the 2011 draft.  Gray again opted to stay in school rather than accept the Yankees offer of $500,000.  Instead he transferred to the University of Oklahoma for his sophomore season.  

Gray made an immediate impact in the Sooners rotation as a dominant power pitcher.  His junior year was even better.  Gray was arguably the most dominant college pitcher in the nation during the 2013 campaign.  Gray’s stuff spiked– he was regularly touching triple-digits, with several reports that he hit as high as 102 for Oklahoma.  A devastating slider, and improved control, made him nearly unhittable in college.  

Desperate to develop an effective big league starting rotation, the Rockies took Gray with the third overall pick in the 2013 draft.  After turning down $500,000 two years earlier, Gray received a Rockies-record $4.8 million signing bonus.  After years of substandard big league pitching, the Rockies hoped that Gray’s elite power arsenal would finally be the antidote to pitching in Coors Field.

Gray spent the 2014 season doing solid work in his own back yard at Double-A Tulsa.  He was sent to Triple-A Albuquerque to begin 2015.  The Pacific Coast League is home to some of the most favorable offensive environments in baseball, and Gray would need the preparation for life in Colorado.  After a respectable run in Triple-A, the Rockies gave Gray his first taste of the big leagues with a nine-game trial beginning in August.  He was a little BABIP unlucky, but piled up 40 strikeouts in 40.2 innings to show he was ready for the big time.

In 2016, Gray worked 168 innings at 105 ERA+ to produce 2.0 bWAR.  He was just 24 years old.

Gray took a step forward in 2017.  Although he dealt with nagging injuries early in the year, Gray hit his stride late in the season.  In 20 starts, Gray went 110.1 innings at 138 ERA+.  He produced 3.1 bWAR in only about two-thirds of a season.  Gray showed that if he could limit walks, he was capable of working at ace-caliber levels for the Rockies.  His excellent late-season stretch helped the Rockies reach the NL Wildcard Game.

Although it appeared 2017 might be a sign of things to come for Gray, he found the going much tougher in 2018.  Gray was hit harder than at any point since his 2015 debut.  While he still put up strikeout and walk numbers inline with his overall career, he yielded 27 homers after allowing just 28 in the previous two years combined.  He contributed 1.7 bWAR towards the Rockies second straight Wild Card team.

Outlook

Gray has now worked 491.1 innings in the big leagues with a career 104 ERA+.  With three years of team control remaining, Gray is lumped into a similar category with Tyler Anderson in terms of his chances to make the All-Time Rockies Team.  You can pretty easily argue that Gray actually has a better chance. He is younger, has better pure stuff, and a better track record of health.  

Gray’s issues stem from his own inconsistency.  An extended stretch along the lines of what we saw in 2017 would allow him to lay claim to being one of the best pitchers in franchise history.  Unfortunately, 2018 is the most recent data we have.  While I fully expect that Gray has better seasons than 2018 ahead of him, its unclear how often they will come, or whether they will be in Colorado, or elsewhere in his 30s.

Wrapping Up

Even with four members of the Rockies 2018 rotation on the Watch List, there are still a few other interesting names to track.  Antonio Senzatela will be just 24 in 2019 and has already shown that he too can be an above-average big league arm.  Reliever Scott Oberg was absurdly good in 2018, but as he enters his age 29 season, it’s unclear if he can repeat it.  Outfielder David Dahl has tremendous natural offensive talent and will be just 25 next year.  If he can stay healthy, it’s not hard to imagine him putting up some huge numbers in Coors Field.

In the minors, it’s harder to find more than a couple of players that fit the mold of potential franchise greats at this point.  Former first-rounder Brendan Rodgers has long been a top prospect as a middle-infielder with big offensive potential.  Rodgers has a solid season at Double-A under his belt.  With Franchise Phenom D.J. LeMahieu heading for free agency, it’s entirely possible the Rockies will clear out second base to give Rodgers his shot.  Rodgers has the type of offensive upside that could lead to a nice career in Colorado.

2016 first-rounder Riley Pint has the same type of unbelievable stuff as Jon Gray.  At the same time, he has struggled to stay healthy and lacks Gray’s command.  An eventual move to the bullpen could be in everyone’s best interests.  

Rockies Mount RushWAR

The Mount RushWAR series will allow us to take a more in-depth look at the careers of the four players with the highest bWAR in franchise history.

Todd Helton (61.2)

Background

Todd Helton was born and raised in Knoxville, Tennessee.  After graduating from Central High School, he enrolled at the University of Tennessee.  A phenomenal high school athlete, Helton was recruited to play two-sports for the Volunteers.

Despite being selected in the second round of the 1992 draft by the San Diego Padres, Helton elected to enroll at Tennessee.  Unlike many two-sport collegiate players in recent years, Helton was a factor in both sports for the Vols.  In football, he had a temporary spin as the starting quarterback before injury opened the door for Peyton Manning.  In baseball, he was an offensive force for three seasons before a huge power surge in his junior year solidified his status as one of the best amateur players in the country.

The Rockies drafted Helton eighth overall in the 1995 draft.  He opened his first full season in pro-ball with a thorough thrashing of Double-A New Haven before finishing the year with Triple-A Colorado Springs.  Heading into 1997, Helton was ranked as the #16 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.  

After another excellent stint at Colorado Springs to begin 1997, the Rockies promoted Helton in August.  He produced roughly league-average offense while often playing out of position in the corner outfield spots.  Outside of some isolated rehab stints Helton would never return to the minors.

Rockies Career

Fellow Rockies Franchise Phenom Andres Galarraga signed as a free agent with the Braves after the 1997.  Galarraga’s departure cleared Helton to return to his natural position, first base.  He would remain the Rockies first option at the position for the next 16 seasons.

By the end of 1999, Helton had played 346 games at the big league level.  He produced a .315/.384/.554 line, good for 119 OPS+, and 5.9 bWAR.  He was an established above-average regular heading into his prime.

Breakout and Peak

As the Rockies entered a new century, 26-year-old Todd Helton was preparing to enter his magnificent prime years.  Helton exploded on the National League in 2000.  The sweet-swinging lefty led the league in all three triple-slash categories with a .372/.463/.698 line.  His 216 hits, 59 doubles, and 157 RBI were all tops in the senior circuit.  Helton made his first All Star team, won his first Silver Slugger, and finished fifth in the MVP voting.  His 8.9 bWAR led the National League and would end up being a career high.

From 2000-2005, Helton was consistently one of the most feared offensive players in the game.  Over that six-year stretch, he averaged .344/.449/.626, 158 OPS+, and 7.0 bWAR.  He won all of his personal awards during this incredible run.  Helton made five straight NL All Star teams from 2000-2004.  He won four Silver Sluggers, and three Gold Gloves.  Despite his incredible play, Helton never finished higher in the MVP race than the fifth place finish he managed in 2000.

Decline

As fate would have it, Todd Helton’s best baseball was behind him by the age of 32.  After finishing his ninth season with the Rockies at a career mark of 148 OPS+, Helton would never approach that level of production again.

In the eight seasons of the second half of his career, Helton would average just 111 OPS+ and 1.6 bWAR.  Outside of isolated excellent seasons in 2007 (133 OPS+, 4.5 bWAR) and 2009 (127 OPS+, 3.3 bWAR), Helton was seldom above-average in his final years.

2007

Not coincidentally, the Rockies best seasons during Helton’s tenure came in the second half of the 2000s.  Although past his prime, Helton was finally receiving the support he never had during his best years.  Notably, fellow Mount RushWAR honoree Troy Tulowitzki, and Franchise Phenom Matt Holliday were in their primes, and among the best players in the game during this stretch.

In 2007, Helton’s bounce back campaign was a critical supporting piece for Tulo and Holliday.  The Rockies finished 89-73 in a tie with the San Diego Padres for the NL Wild Card.  In a tie-breaking Game 163, the Rockies earned a trip to the postseason with a 9-8 win in 13 innings.  Helton showed up big including a solo homer, two walks, and two RBI.

Although Helton wasn’t much of a factor, the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS to advance in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.  

In the NLCS, Holliday was unconscious including two homers.  Helton again struggled, but the Rockies received improbably solid pitching performances en route to a sweep of the Diamondbacks.

In their first World Series appearance in franchise history, the Rockies were matched up with the AL Champion Boston Red Sox.  Themselves a 96-win juggernaut, the Red Sox proved too much for the upstart Rockies.  Boston dominated the first and third games while holding on for one-run wins in the second and fourth to conclude the sweep.  Helton was the Rockies best hitter during the series, posting a .333/.412/.467 line.

2009

After a brutal 2008 season, the Rockies dealt Holliday to Oakland in the off-season.  In an unexpected turn of events, the Rockies rebounded from the loss of Holliday by winning 90 games, and the Wild Card, for the second time in three years.  At 3.3 bWAR, Helton was the Rockies’ most productive position player aside from Tulo.

The 2009 postseason was not as eventful as 2007 had been.  The Rockies won Game Two of the NLDS, but the Phillies took the series in four games.

The End

Aside from a 2011 season in which he was a roughly average starting first baseman, Helton struggled mightily through the final four years of his career.  Todd Helton retired after the 2013 season as the clear-cut best player in Rockies history.

Legacy

In 17 seasons with the Rockies, Todd Helton climbed to the top as the greatest player in franchise history.  No player in the team’s comparatively short history has better represented the organization.  He won four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, and was a five-time All Star.

Helton is the Rockies all-time leader in games played (2247), runs (1401), hits (2519), doubles (592), homers (369), RBI (1406), and walks (1335).  

Helton has a strong case for enshrinement in Cooperstown.  By JAWS, Helton ranks as the 15th best first baseman in history.  While that places him below the lofty average mark for the position, he is surrounded by Hall of Famers on the list.

Helton hits the ballot for the first time heading into the 2019 vote.  Larry Walker’s voting results provide a potential guide for the way Helton’s candidacy may be viewed.  Although modern metrics strip away ballpark context, baseball writers have long struggled to separate the Coors Field effect when evaluating Rockies players for awards.  Hitters are often over-penalized and pitchers under-rewarded. 

For a franchise still awaiting its first Hall of Famer, there is nobody better to end the drought than Todd Helton.

Todd Helton Career Highlights from Major League Baseball

Larry Walker (48.3)

Background

Larry Walker was born and raised in Maple Ridge, British Columbia.  In November, 1984, just weeks before his 18th birthday, Walker signed as an amateur free agent with the Montreal Expos.  

Walker spent most of 1985-1989 working his way up through the Expos minor league system.  By the time he was 19 in 1986, it was clear that he had some of the best upside of any prospect in the system.  He was in Double-A by age 20.  By the end of 1989, Walker made his big league debut at 22 years old.

Expos Career

By 1990, Larry Walker was in the big leagues to stay.  He quickly established himself as an above-average big leaguer during his rookie season.  He averaged 3.4 bWAR during his first two full seasons.

Walker broke out in 1992.  He hit .301/.353/.506, 141 OPS+ and produced 5.4 bWAR.  He made the All Star team and won both the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards.  With a fifth place MVP finish under his belt, it appeared that the 25-year-old Walker was on his way to superstardom surrounded by a talented young core in Montreal.

Although his offensive production slipped a bit in 1993, Walker still produced 4.4 bWAR to help lead the Expos to their second straight winning season.  He won his second straight Gold Glove.

The strike-shortened 1994 season forever altered the course of Expos history.  When the final game was played in August, the Expos were in first place with an incredible 74-40 record.  Walker himself was leading the league with 44 doubles, and producing at new heights with 151 OPS+.

Walker hit the open market after 1994.  When the strike ended, the dominoes began to fall.  Fellow stars Ken Hill, then Marquis Grissom, were traded with just weeks before the delayed opening day.  Two days after the Grissom trade, Walker signed as a free agent with the Rockies.  

Walker finished his Expos career having produced a .281/.353/.483 line, 128 OPS+, and 21.1 bWAR.  Dark days were ahead in Montreal but at age 28, Walker’s career was just getting started.

Rockies Career

Larry Walker made an immediate impact upon arriving in Denver.  The star right fielder filled a gaping hole in the middle of the Rockies lineup with the same type of well-rounded offensive production he had shown in Montreal.  Walker was immediately the best player on the team producing 131 OPS+ and 4.7 bWAR.

The 1995 Rockies finished 77-67 to win the National League Wild Card.  Walker was solid in the NLDS, hitting .214/.389/.429 against the Atlanta Braves.  Unfortunately, the Braves offense dominated the series.  Atlanta won in four games.  It would be Larry Walker’s first, and only, postseason series with the Rockies.

The Rockies finished above .500 again in 1996, but Walker played just 83 games.  Although still productive when he was on the field, his unavailability for half the season was too much for the team to overcome.

Rocky Mountain Peak

Healthy again for 1997, the 30-year-old Walker was about to embark on the best stretch of his entire career.  From 1997-1999 Walker averaged a preposterous .369/.451/.689 line, 167 OPS+, and 6.9 bWAR.  Injuries continued to nag at him.  He averaged just 137 games per year during this stretch.  When he was on the field, it was clear that Walker was among the very best players in the game.

1997 was his clear-cut career-year.  He led the league in homers (49), OBP (.452), slugging (.720), and bWAR (9.8).  Walker was once again and All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover.  He received 22 of 28 first place votes to win the National League MVP.

In 1998-1999, Walker won back-to-back batting titles hitting .363 and .379 respectively.  He paced the league in OBP (.458) and slugging (.710) again in 1999 as well.

From 1997-1999 Walker made three straight All Star teams, won three straight Gold Gloves, and won two Silver Sluggers.

Turn of the Century

Walker’s salary more than doubled from 1999 to 2000.  As he moved into his mid-30s, Walker’s critics increasingly pointed to his struggles with injury.  2000 was the worst season of his career up to that point as he played just 87 games and produced 110 OPS+.

Walker was largely healthy and again excellent from 2001-2003.  He averaged 140 games, .325/.431/.583, 145 OPS+, and 6.1 bWAR.  He won Gold Gloves in 2001-2002, and was an All Star in 2001.  Walker won his third batting title, hitting .350 in 2001.  Meanwhile the Rockies struggled to find pitching and won 73-74 games each season.

In 2004, the injury bug bit again.  Walker did not debut until late June.  Although he was productive when he returned, the Rockies were on the way to their worst season in a decade.  Despite producing 166 OPS+ in 38 games after coming off the disabled list, Walker was in limbo.  The Rockies weren’t in position to win, and his salary was increasingly a burden on a losing team. 

After he cleared waivers in early August, 2004, the Rockies traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals.  

Cardinals Career

Walker continued to mash upon arriving in St. Louis in August, 2004.  He took over in right field immediately, and produced 144 OPS+ in 44 games down the stretch.  The Cardinals won 105 games, and the NL Central.

Walker was a driving force behind their offensive success in the first two rounds of the 2004 playoffs, helping to propel St. Louis to the World Series.  Although Walker continued to rake during his only trip to the Fall Classic, the Cardinals were swept by a team of destiny coming out of Boston.

When available, Walker was again the regular right fielder in St. Louis in 2005.  In 100 games, he produced 130 OPS+.  The Cardinals won 100 games and the NL Central.  St. Louis was eliminated in the NLCS by the Houston Astros.

Walker’s contract expired after the 2005 season.  Although he was probably capable of continuing to contribute to a big league team offensively, a 17-year big league career had taken its toll.  Rather than return at age 39, Larry Walker hung them up for good.

Legacy

In 10 seasons with the Rockies, Larry Walker treated the fans to some of the most sublimely excellent play of that era.  A true five-tool talent, Walker contributed in every facet of the game for a decade.  In his career, Walker was a five-time All Star, won seven Gold Gloves, and three Silver Sluggers.  He won three batting titles, and an MVP for the Rockies.

Todd Helton’s longer career has afforded him most of the records for counting stats in Rockies history.  Walker’s absence of a notable decline phase leaves him the dominant player in rate stats.  Walker is the Rockies all-time leader in average (.334), OBP (.426), slugging (.618), and OPS+ (147).

While Helton’s Hall of Fame candidacy has not yet truly begun, Walker’s is long since underway.  2019 will be Walker’s ninth year on the ballot.  According to JAWS, Walker is the 10th best right fielder in history, and just above-average for Hall of Famers at the position.

Walker’s candidacy seems to have suffered from a combination of the aforementioned Coors Field effect, and the number of his seasons that were cut short by injuries.  He did experience a surge last year, jumping from 21.9% of the vote in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018.  With two years remaining, it’s unclear if he will be able to close the substantial gap to the 75% needed for enshrinement.

For those who saw him play, Larry Walker’s tremendous physical talent placed him among the game’s all-time great five-tool players.  Larry Walker was a Hall of Fame player.  Hopefully he receives the formal honors that go with it.

Legends of the Diamond:  Larry Walker from Major League Baseball

Troy Tulowitzki (39.4)

Background

Troy Tulowitzki was born and raised in the South Bay area of California.  A graduate of Fremont High School in Sunnyvale, Tulo headed south to play his college ball at Long Beach State University. 

A three-year starter for the Dirtbags, Tulo improved each year.  As a true shortstop with impact offensive potential as well, Tulo was a top prospect by the end of his junior year.  The Rockies took him seventh overall in the 2005 MLB Draft.  

In 2006, the Rockies sent Tulo directly to Double-A Tulsa in the Texas League.  Still just 21 years old, he lived up to his reputation in his first full season in pro ball.  By the end of August, the Rockies were ready to give him a trial at the big league level.  Although he struggled a bit in his first 25-game cup of coffee, it was clear Tulo was ready for the big leagues.

Rockies Career

Tulo made an immediate impact on the Rockies fortunes in 2007.  His stellar glove work and above-average offensive production immediately made him one of the best shortstops in baseball.  The rookie sensation produced 109 OPS+ and 6.8 bWAR (still a career-high).  

October, 2007

In a tie-breaking Game 163, Tulo was 4-7 with two doubles, a triple, three runs, and an RBI as the Rockies won a 13-inning thriller 9-8 in Denver.

In the NLDS, the Rockies swept the Phillies.  Tulo doubled and homered in a 10-5 Game Two victory, but otherwise struggled at the plate.

Tulo’s offensive woes continued in the NLCS.  Fellow Franchise Phenom Matt Holliday caught fire to carry the team to a sweep of the division-rival Diamondbacks.  

Tulo fared better in the World Series, producing .718 OPS.  Unfortunately, the Boston Red Sox took one-run wins in the second and fourth games of the series to complete the sweep.  

2009

Tulo experienced a rather dramatic sophomore slump in 2008.  He went from being one of the best players in the game the year before to barely above replacement-level as he was both injured and ineffective.  The team struggled along with him, and dealt Holliday to Oakland in the off-season.

Entering 2009, it was unclear what Rockies fans could expect from their young shortstop, or the team as a whole.  Tulo answered the bell emphatically.  Although his defense would never again reach the lofty heights of his rookie year, Tulo proved he had another gear offensively.  In 151 games, he produced 131 OPS+ and 6.5 bWAR.  He finished fifth in the MVP voting.

In an improbable turn of events, the Rockies rebounded from the loss of Holliday by winning 90 games, and the Wild Card, for the second time in three years.  Tulo was once again the best player on a playoff team.

The 2009 postseason was not as eventful as 2007 had been.  The Rockies won Game Two of the NLDS, but the Phillies took the series in four games.

2010-2015

After making the postseason in two of his first three years, it appeared that a team built around Troy Tulowitzki might have a chance to be a perennial playoff contender in Colorado.  As fate would have it, the Rockies would have just one more winning season, and never again made the playoffs, during Tulo’s tenure.

For his part, Tulo’s play was not the problem.  He was a consistently above-average, and often excellent, hitter while remaining a plus defender.  Tulo made the All Star team in five of the six seasons.  He won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards in 2010-2011.  He was arguably the best shortstop in the game for much of this period.

By 2015, the Rockies were in the midst of their fifth straight losing season.  Now 30, Tulo was still productive when healthy, but had averaged just 88 games per season in the previous three years.  The baseball world began to wonder if Colorado’s best chance to build a winner had to begin with trading the face of their franchise.  

On July 28, 2015 the Rockies dealt the best shortstop in their history to the Toronto Blue Jays.  Colorado accepted a package of three talented young arms headlined by Jeff Hoffman in the hopes that they could begin to build a better pitching staff.  Although the team returned to the postseason in 2017-2018, the players acquired for Tulo had little to do with the team’s success.  In the end, the financial resources regained by clearing the remaining five guaranteed seasons from Tulo’s contract were probably more important than the prospects.

Blue Jays Career

Although his offense never quite blossomed as Toronto hoped down the stretch, Tulo’s defensive play made him a welcomed upgrade at shortstop in 2015.  The Jays finished the year with 93 wins to take the AL East.

On a star-studded roster, Tulo was more of a supporting player in October.  In a drama-packed ALDS series, the Blue Jays defeated the Rangers in five games.  The 2015 ALCS was probably the best postseason series of Tulo’s career up to that point.  He posted .826 OPS, but the Blue Jays were defeated in six games by the Royals.

Tulo was above-average for the Jays again in 2016.  Toronto finished 89-73, then defeated the Orioles in the Wild Card Game.  Tulo hit .462/.462/.846 to help lead the offense as the Jays swept Texas in an ALDS rematch.  The ALCS was a different story both for Tulo, and the Jays.  Pitching dominated on both sides, but the Indians defeated Toronto in five games.

Injuries limited Tulo to just 66 games in 2017.  He then missed the entire 2018 season while still working to get healthy.  With two guaranteed seasons remaining, time will tell whether one of the great shortstops of this generation has anything left in the tank.

Legacy

In 10 seasons with the Colorado Rockies, Troy Tulowitzki cemented his status as the greatest shortstop in franchise history.  Tulo was a remarkable defensive player at a premium position, who at times, was also among the game’s best hitters.  He is a five-time All Star who won two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers.

Tulo is the Rockies career leader in Defensive bWAR.

Up until the age of 31, Tulo had the look of a sure-fire Hall of Famer.  Entering his age-34 season, there remains a two-part question:

  1. How much baseball does Troy Tulowitzki’s body have left?
  2. Has he done enough already to earn consideration for Cooperstown?

Only time will provide the answer to the first question.  As for the second, the answer appears to be ‘probably not’.  JAWS ranks him as the 26th best shortstop in history.  While he would not be the least-accomplished shortstop to earn enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, there are also a few with better credentials who were not selected.  He fares a little better when considering just his peak.  Even then, he is probably below-average for Hall of Famers at the position.

Tulo’s candidacy appears to rest then on his ability to return to the field healthy for at least a few more seasons of above-average production.  At this point, the probability of that is anybody’s guess.

Regardless of where he may end up among baseball’s all-time greats, Troy Tulowitzki will long be remembered as one of the best players the Rockies have ever had.

Troy Tulowitzki’s Greatest Moments with the Rockies from Major League Baseball

Nolan Arenado (33.1)

Background

Nolan Arenado was born and raised in Southern California.  A graduate of El Toro High School in Lake Forest, Arenado was selected in the second round (59th overall) of the 2009 draft.  Arenado was promoted a level at a time during a methodical climb through the Rockies system.  

The early scouting reports on Arenado in the minor leagues portrayed a player who was likely to be a talented hitter with a good approach and above-average power.  Questions persisted about his defensive skills and whether or not he would be able to be an adequate third baseman.  

His offensive development in the minor leagues followed the early reports.  He controlled the strike zone well and racked up doubles.  By the time he was 22 years old, Arenado’s defense had improved dramatically.  With that final piece of his development complete, Arenado was on on his way to the big leagues.

Rockies Career

Nolan Arenado made his big league debut at the end of April, 2013.  In a surprising reversal from his early days as a pro, Arenado’s early value was mostly wrapped up in his glove work.  A well below-average hitter in his first big league campaign, Arenado still produced 3.8 bWAR on the strength of his excellent defensive play.  He won his first Gold Glove as a rookie.

Arenado’s power began to show up more consistently during 2014.  He finished the year at 115 OPS+ and 4.1 bWAR despite playing just 111 games.  He won his second Gold Glove.

Breakout

Arenado consolidated his skills in 2015.  Now 24 years old, he was already regarded as perhaps the best defensive third baseman in baseball.  2015 brought the offensive breakout the Rockies had hoped for.  Arenado produced 124 OPS+ and utilized the friendly environment of Coors Field to lead the NL in homers (42) and RBI (130).  He won his third straight Gold Glove, and his first Silver Slugger.  He was also an All Star for the first time and finished eighth in the MVP race.

2016 was a near carbon copy of the previous year.  Arenado produced 129 OPS+.  He led the league in homers (41) and RBI (133) for the second straight season.  His 6.6 bWAR made him the second most productive player in the NL, although he finished fifth for MVP.  For the second straight year he was an All Star, Gold Glover, and Silver Slugger.

Arenado was better still in 2017.  He produced 130 OPS+, and his 7.2 bWAR established a new career-high.  His 43 doubles were tops in the NL.  For the third straight year he was an All Star, Gold Glover, and Silver Slugger.  He finished fourth in the MVP voting.

The 2017 Rockies finished 87-75 to earn a spot in the National League Wild Card Game.  Arenado hit a solo-homer and scored twice, but the Diamondbacks took the game 11-8.

2018

After a brief taste of postseason baseball in 2017, the Rockies were primed to take another step forward in 2018.  Arenado had the best offensive season of his career, producing 133 OPS+ and winning his third NL homerun crown with 38.  He made his fourth straight All Star team.

Arenado’s brilliance was complimented run for run by fellow Franchise Phenom Trevor Story at shortstop.  The emergence of Kyle Freeland and German Marquez in the starting rotation gave the Rockies perhaps the best 1-2 punch in franchise history.  The Rockies won 91 games, and finished tied for first place with the Dodgers in the NL West.  

In Game 163, Arenado and Story hit back-to-back solo homers off Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen in the ninth inning, but the Dodgers held on for a 5-2 win.

The Rockies then hopped on a plane and flew overnight to Chicago for the NL Wild Card Game against the Cubs.  Colorado struck early with a sacrifice fly from Arenado in the top of the first inning.  The Cubs tied the game in the bottom of the eighth.  The Colorado bullpen was tough as nails, and the Rockies left Chicago a 2-1 winner in 13 innings to advance to the NLDS.

In their first NLDS appearance in nine seasons, the Rockies offense was stifled by the deep and versatile pitching staff of the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Rockies scored just two runs in the three-game Brewers sweep.

Looking Ahead

As one of the few Mount RushWAR faces across the league who is still active with the team he represents, Nolan Arenado’s Rockies legacy is unfinished.  Arenado will be just 28 years old in 2019.  The Rockies have one year of guaranteed team-control remaining.

Reports from the immediate aftermath of their NLDS loss to the Brewers indicate that there have been no formal extension talks between the Rockies and the best third baseman in their history.  As one of the most consistently excellent players in baseball over the past five seasons, Arenado’s market value is through the roof heading into what could be his final year in Colorado.

While he has already established himself as one of the greatest players in Rockies history, a lengthy contract extension could allow him to challenge for a higher spot on the mountain.  It’s not hard to imagine him passing Tulo in career WAR with the Rockies in 2019.  Passing Walker and Helton represent increasingly tougher challenges, but they are both theoretically in reach under the right circumstances. 

With a contract extension and continued good health, it’s entirely possible that Nolan Arenado could one day climb to the top of the Rockie Mountain version of Mount RushWAR.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6_x8lQ6llk
Nolan Arenado 2018 Highlights from Sports Productions on You Tube

All-Time Rockies Team

Next up on Franchise Phenoms is the All-Time Rockies Team.  Colorado follows the White Sox and Phillies as third up in our series.

Franchise Overview

The Colorado Rockies were founded in 1993.  They joined the National League that season along with the Florida Marlins.  Only the Diamondbacks and Rays are newer to Major League Baseball than the 1993 expansion teams.

The Rockies are one of seven teams that have never won an World Series.

The team’s 0.473 winning percentage is 25th all-time.  The Rockies have had just nine winning seasons out of 26.

Despite all of their lean years along the way, Rockies fans have been fortunate in terms of playoff appearances.  Colorado has made the playoffs in 19.2% of the team’s seasons, the eighth best mark in history.

Hitters

Starting LineupNamePositionB/TbWAR/650OPS+Years Played
1.Ellis BurksCF (RF/LF)R/R3.81281994-98
2.Larry WalkerRFL/R6.71471995-2004
3.Matt HollidayLFR/R4.11312004-08, 18
4.Todd Helton1BL/L4.31331997-2013
5.Troy TulowitzkiSSR/R5.91232006-15
6.Nolan Arenado3BR/R5.71222013-Present
7.Chris IannettaCR/R1.8952006-11, 18-Present
8.D.J. LeMahieu2BR/R2.9932012-18
9.PitcherP
Bench
OFCarlos GonzalezRF/LF/CFL/L3.11162009-18
OFCharlie BlackmonCF/RFL/L2.51162011-Present
1BAndres Galarraga1BR/R3.31251993-97
INVinny Castilla3B/SSR/R2.61061993-99, 2004, 06
INTrevor StorySSR/R5.41132016-Present
CJeff ReedCL/R2.5991996-99

Slugging at Altitude

Playing their home games in Denver has given Rockies hitters the benefit of arguably the most favorable hitting environment in big league history.  The Rockies have an impressive history of offensive production.

On Top of the Mountain

First baseman Todd Helton is the historical face of the Rockies franchise.  Helton played his entire 17-year career in Colorado.  Helton was a five-time All Star who won four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves in his career.  Even after accounting for Coors Field, Helton was regularly one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.

The Rockies have yet to have a player elected to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.  At this moment, Helton probably has the best chance to be the first.  He is probably among the top 15-20 first basemen in baseball history.

There is a case to be made that right fielder Larry Walker had an even better career than Helton.  Walker was already one of the best outfielders in the National League when he left the Montreal Expos to sign as a free agent with the Rockies.  Walker made four All Star teams in Colorado.  He also won five Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers with the Rockies.  Walker was the National League MVP in 1997 when he led the league in homers (49), OBP (.452), and slugging (.720).  Hall of Fame voters have struggled with how to account for the impact of Colorado on his offensive production.  As modern metrics help provide context, Walker may still have a late surge in support coming.

Current third baseman Nolan Arenado could find himself on the level of Walker and Helton before long.  Arenado is crafting a case as one of the best defensive third basemen in history, winning the Gold Glove in each of his first five seasons.  In addition to his glove work, Arenado has become one of the most feared hitters in baseball.  He has made four straight All Star teams, won three straight Silver Sluggers, and finished eighth or better in the MVP voting three years running.

Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki seemed to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory for much of his 10 seasons in Colorado.  Tulo is a five-time All Star with two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers to his credit.  One of the most well-rounded players in the game for the bulk of an eight-year period, Tulo finished eighth or better in the MVP voting three straight times.  By age 30, injuries had taken their toll.  He was frequently unavailable and less effective when he was.  Now with the Blue Jays, and with two more guaranteed seasons left on his contract, Tulo will try to bounce back after missing all of 2018.

Smaller Peaks

Matt Holliday gets the nod in left field.  Holliday earned a place among the all-time Rockies greats in his first five seasons.  A three-time All Star and Silver Slugger winner, Holliday had a chance to join the upper tier of Rockies elite.  Instead he was traded to Oakland heading into free agency and made four more All Star teams with the St. Louis Cardinals.  In a great addendum, 11 seasons after he departed, Holliday came out of retirement late in 2018 to help the Rockies win a Wild Card spot and advance in the playoffs.

Center fielder Ellis Burks was a tremendously talented, and underrated, player for much of his 18-year career.  Although he bounced around a bit, some of his best seasons were in Colorado.  1996 was his career year.  He finished third in the MVP voting, made the All Star team, and won a Silver Slugger.

Current second baseman D.J. LeMahieu has crafted a unique path to the All-Time Rockies Team.  On the strength of an excellent contact and on-base profile, LeMahieu made himself a respectable hitter despite minimal power.  His solid glove work at second is the final piece to a fine package.  He is a two-time All Star with two Gold Gloves.  He won the NL batting title in 2016.  He heads into free agency this winter leaving his Rockies future in limbo for the time being.

Chris Iannetta starts at catcher.  A roughly league-average hitter over seven seasons and two stints with the Rockies, Iannetta was a contributor to three of the five playoff teams in franchise history.  He is under contract for 2019 with a chance to add to his legacy.

Bench

Based on the total bodies of their work, either Carlos Gonzalez, or Charlie Blackmon, might have a case to start in center over Burks.

Cargo has three All Star selections under his belt along with two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers.  He won the batting title and finished third in the MVP voting in 2010.  After signing a one-year deal to return for 2018, he is a free agent again this winter.

A late-bloomer, Blackmon was not a regular player until he was 27.  He is a three-time All Star with two Silver Sluggers to his credit.  He won the batting title and finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2017.  With a contract guaranteed through 2021 with two player options at the end, Blackmon will have every opportunity to overtake Burks and enter the starting lineup.

Current shortstop Trevor Story has a steeper climb to catch Tulo.  He was an All Star as a 25-year-old in 2018.  Entering his prime with four years of team control remaining, Story could make it interesting with his solid all around game.

Teammates with the Rockies for the first five years of the franchise’s existence, Andres Galarraga and Vinny Castilla joined Walker, Burks, and Dante Bichette as the Blake Street Bombers in the organization’s heyday of absurd offensive production.

Galaragga came to the Rockies at age 32.  The Big Cat took to altitude.  He earned two All Star selections and won a Silver Slugger.  He finished in the top-10 of the MVP voting four times with the Rockies including 1996 when he led the league with 47 homers and 150 RBI.

Castilla joins relievers Steve Reed and Curt Leskanic as the only players selected by the Rockies in the 1992 Expansion Draft to make the Rockies All-Time Team.  The third baseman was a two-time All Star and won two Silver Sluggers with the Rockies.

Jeff Reed is the backup catcher.  He came to the Rockies as a free agent at age 33.  He was a league-average hitter over four seasons in Colorado.  

Pitchers

Starting RotationNameB/TERA+Years Played
1.Ubaldo JimenezR/R1282006-11
2.Jhoulys ChacinR/R1202009-14
3.Jorge De La RosaL/L1062008-16
4.Aaron CookR/R1062002-11
5.Jason JenningsL/R1032001-06
Bullpen
LRCurt LeskanicR/R1081993-99
RPBruce RuffinS/L1311993-97
RPRafael BetancourtR/R1312009-15
RPAdam OttavinoS/R1362012-18
SUSteve ReedR/R1401993-97, 2003-04
CLBrian FuentesL/L1442002-08

Pitching at Altitude

Just as the Rockie Mountain air has historically benefited Colorado’s hitters, it has traditionally had the inverse effect on their pitching staff.  Although they have turned out some decent relievers (19th best All-Time Team), the starting pitching (25th) has consistently struggled to give the Rockies a chance to contend.

Starting Rotation

In six seasons with the Rockies, Ubaldo Jimenez turned in a handful of the best starting pitching seasons in franchise history.  2010 was his career year.  He made the All Star team and finished 19-8 with a 161 ERA+.  He was third in the Cy Young voting, the highest finish in Rockies history.

Like Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin pitched six years in Colorado.  Although not a prolific strikeout pitcher, Chacin mixed pitches effectively enough to be a consistently above-average starter in baseball’s least forgiving environment.

Left-hander Jorge De La Rosa is the Rockies all-time leader in wins (86) and strikeouts (985).  In nine seasons with Colorado, De La Rosa posted above-average ERA+ marks six times.

In ten seasons with the Rockies, sinker-baller Aaron Cook had above-average ERA+ marks seven times.  His reliability allowed him to set the Rockies career records for starts (206), and innings (1312.1).  He was an All Star in 2008.

Fellow sinker-baller Jason Jennings gets the final spot.  Jennings spent six seasons in Colorado finishing just above-average for his career.  He was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2002.  

Bullpen

Left-hander Brian Fuentes is the most successful closer in Rockies history.  A consistently devastating force for seven years with the Rockies, his 115 saves are tops in franchise history.  He made three-straight All Star teams from 2005-2007.

Steve Reed utilized a nearly submarine delivery to help keep the ball in the park for seven seasons with the Rockies.  Although he was never the team’s full-time closer, his 140 ERA+ over 499 innings give him a strong case as the most effective right-handed reliever in Rockies history.

Current setup man Adam Ottavino has been a force for most of his seven seasons with the Rockies.  Like Reed, he has seldom been called on to save games, instead using his explosive stuff to preserve leads and bridge the gap to the ninth inning.  He is a free agent after 2018.

Rafael Betancourt spent six seasons in a rather specialized role for the Rockies.  He worked just 275.2 innings over 309 games.  His excellent command of nasty stuff proved to be a devastating combination.  There is a strong case for his inclusion in the all-time bullpen of the Cleveland Indians as well.

Left-hander Bruce Ruffin signed a free agent deal to join the Rockies for their inaugural season.  He saved 60 games in five seasons as one of the more underrated relievers of the mid-90s.

Another original Rockies player, Curt Leskanic pitched parts of seven seasons with the club.  From 1995-1999 he averaged 66 games and 78 innings per seasons as the team’s most versatile reliever.  

Phillies Watch List (2019)

In the Watch List series, we will examine four current players from each franchise with the best chance of one day cracking their All-Time Team.

Aaron Nola

Position:  RHSP

2019 Age:  26

Career bWAR with Phillies:  16.

Aaron Nola was the 7th overall pick in the 2014 draft.  Pitching for his hometown team, the LSU Tigers, Nola had proven to be a dominant collegiate pitcher in the SEC.  Due to his advanced command and feel, Nola was viewed as a good bet to contribute to the big league rotation in short order.

Nola climbed through the Philadelphia system quickly.  He reached Double-A by the end of his draft year.  Half-way through 2015, he made Triple-A.  He made his big league debut just over a year after he was drafted in July, 2015.

In his 13-game trial during 2015, Nola acquitted himself nicely.  The rookie right-hander posted a 107 ERA+ while continuing to demonstrate advanced command.

2016 was somewhat less successful.  While suffering through an elbow injury that threatened to derail his promising career, Nola struggled a bit.  In 111 innings, his ERA+ was just 87.  Some bad luck on batted balls gave the impression that some of the shine had worn off the promising hurler.  His 3.08 FIP, combined with a strikeout rate that was up almost a full two K/9 from his rookie year, told a very different story.

In 2017, Nola again missed a handful of starts managing injury.  When he was healthy, his BABIP corrected itself while his strikeout and walk rates held strong.  By the end of the season, he was healthy and rolling.  He finished the year with 122 ERA+ over 168 innings, and 4.3 bWAR.  

Nola blew up in 2018.  In 212.1 innings over 33 starts, he was 17-6 with a 3.01 ERA.  His strikeout and walk rates held steady, and this time he was lucky on the batted ball front.  He finished with 175 ERA+ and 10.5 bWAR, tops among NL pitchers.  He also made his first All Star team.

Outlook

Nola’s monster 2018 campaign has set him on a favorable course to make a run at the Phillies All-Time Team.  With 93 starts under his belt, he is tracking quite nicely.  He is 41-28 with a 3.35 ERA, 124 ERA+, and continually strong strikeout and walk rates.  He now has 16.5 career bWAR.

The Phillies current fifth starter is Chris Short.  Short amassed 32.1 bWAR in 14 seasons with the Phillies.  In terms of longevity, Nola has some work to do to earn true consideration.

At the same time, Short is clearly reachable for Nola on the dominance side of the equation.  A two-time All Star who never received Cy Young votes, Short’s spot was earned with long-term reliability.  Short’s ERA+ was 105.  

Nola can be a free agent after the 2021 season, giving him three more years of team control.  He probably needs something more like six or seven additional healthy and effective seasons in Philadelphia to surpass Short.  A contract extension will be required, but as it stands, that certainly seems possible.

Seranthony Dominguez

Position:  RHRP

2019 Age:  24

Career bWAR with Phillies:  2.4

Seranthony Dominguez was signed out of the Dominican Republic in October, 2011.  He spent two seasons in the Dominican Summer League before heading stateside in 2014.  He pitched just 33.2 innings from 2014-2015.

By the time he was 21, Dominguez still had not established himself as a particularly interesting prospect in the Phillies system.  The organization’s patience began to payoff in 2016 as he was effective across two levels of A-Ball.  He was promoted to High-A in 2017 where he continued to show the ability to miss bats with premium velocity and improving secondary pitches.

Dominguez was shifted to the bullpen full-time in 2018.  He was dominant across 11 appearances in the upper minors before making his big league debut at the beginning of May.  By the end of the month he had worked his way into the picture for saves.  By the end of the season, he had a lock on the closer’s role.

In 58 innings, Dominguez finished with a 2.95 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 16 saves.  Although it’s just one season, his 142 ERA+ has him tracking towards a bullpen spot on the Phillies All-Time Team.  

Outlook

With a fastball that averages 98 mph backed up by an effective slider and change up, Dominguez should have more good days ahead.  His 2.85 FIP almost identically matched his actual ERA, indicating that a healthy Dominguez is a good bet to continue dominating the late innings and racking up saves for the foreseeable future.

The final three arms in the Phillies bullpen are all reachable for Dominguez.  None of Turk Farrell, Ricky Bottalico, or Mitch Williams had a Phillies ERA+ better than 119.  

As a player still working through his rookie contract who has already established himself as an effective late-inning force, Dominguez has a strong chance to crack the Phillies roster.  General health concerns for all pitchers, and the particular volatility of relief pitchers, are the primary potential roadblocks going forward.  Dominguez has work to do, but clearly has the tools, and opportunity, to be immortalized as a Phillies great.

Rhys Hoskins

Position:  LF/1B

2019 Age:  26

Career bWAR with Phillies:  2.5

Rhys Hoskins was a fifth round draft pick out of Sacramento State University in 2014.  A big-bodied slugger, Hoskins posted a 1.001 OPS during his draft year in the WAC.  He was productive during his first full professional season, but as a right-handed hitter with limited defensive value, it was fair to be skeptical about his long term prospects.

In 2016, Hoskins mashed 38 homers in the hitter-friendly confines of Reading in the Double-A Eastern League.  With the power starting to play in games, it was clear Hoskins was a bat to watch going forward.

After he hit 29 homers in 115 games to begin the 2017 season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies promoted him to the big leagues in August.  The 24-year-old slugged another 18 homers in just 50 games, giving him 47 total for the year.  Rhys Hoskins had arrived.

Hoskins split time between first base and left field during his debut.  After the Phillies signed Carlos Santana in the off season, it was clear that Hoskins would have to spend more time in left going forward.  

2018 was another solid season at the plate for Hoskins.  Although he exhibited a little less control over the strike zone, and his torrid home run pace from 2017 inevitably slowed, he still posted 125 OPS+ with 34 homers and 87 walks.  

Outlook

Through his first 203 games, Hoskins has posted an excellent 134 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR.  The disparity between his offensive exploits and overall value to the Phillies is wrapped up on the defensive side of the ball.  An adequate first baseman, but below-average left fielder, Hoskins’s career WAR totals figure to be held down as a result of the Phillies playing him out of position.

His competition in the outfield is fierce with Hall of Famers and elite hitters littered across the roster.  At first, he is well off the pace of Dick Allen, and likewise has a long way to go to match Ryan Howard‘s body of work in Philly.

Hoskins can be a free agent after the 2023 season.  He probably isn’t a strong bet to be an all-time Phillies great.  At the same time, his elite power production gives him a better chance than most to crack the roster of one of the game’s oldest franchises.

Jorge Alfaro

Position:  C

2019 Age:  26

Career bWAR with Phillies:  1.7

Jorge Alfaro was signed by the Texas Rangers out of Colombia in January, 2010.  During his climb through the Texas system, Alfaro earned the nickname “The Legend” for his prodigious physical tools highlighted by an 80-grade arm, and 70 power.  

By the time Alfaro was 20, it appeared that he was on the fast track to super-stardom as an exciting two-way catcher.  Instead, the upper-minors revealed that his control of the strike zone was problematic, and his defense needed refinement.  The package was still attractive, but by the time he was 22, he was no longer untouchable.

With the Rangers working towards an AL West championship in 2015, the club pulled the trigger on a deal to acquire Phillies Franchise Phenom, Cole Hamels at the July 31 trade deadline.  Alfaro was one of the headliners in the six-player return the Phillies received for one of the best pitchers in their history.

Alfaro made his debut in Philadelphia the next year with a cup of coffee.  He spent most of 2017 languishing in Triple-A before showing signs of life in the majors during August and September.

In 2018, he was the primary catcher for the Phillies.  In 108 games, he posted 95 OPS+ while playing respectable defense and contributing 1.2 bWAR.  

Outlook

Alfaro remains under Phillies control through the 2023 season.  Offensively, the strike zone remains an issue, but the power is still there.  The tools to be an above-average defender remain as well.  

The backup catcher for the Phillies, Mike Lieberthal, averaged less than two WAR/season even during his prime.  Alfaro has already proven he can match that level of production while retaining the upside to be even better. 

Given that Lieberthal played 1174 games over parts of 13 seasons in Philly, Alfaro will have to cash in on the promise of his prospect days to overtake him.

Wrapping Up

The 2018 Phillies boasted a foursome of additional pitchers who produced 2+ bWAR.  Nick Pivetta, Victor Arano, and Zack Eflin probably lack the pure stuff and upside to be realistic candidates as starting pitchers.  Vince Velasquez has some of the best stuff on the staff, but has yet to really put it all together heading into his age 27 season.

In the minor leagues, the Phillies system has some depth, but appears to be lacking in upside.  Top-prospect Sixto Sanchez has the type of stuff you can dream on, but has yet to reach Double-A and fought through a balky elbow this year.  Third baseman Alec Bohm was the third overall pick out of Wichita State in 2018.  His pro debut was unimpressive, but the upside to be an impact corner bat remains.