Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.
19. Eric Chavez
JAWS: 34.3 (55.7 Average HOF 3B)
Eric Chavez was drafted 10th overall by the Oakland Athletics out of Mount Carmel High School in San Diego, CA in 1996. A phenomenal talent, Chavez engineered a quick rise through the Oakland system. In 1997, he made his professional debut in High-A at 19. During his age-20 season, he conquered Double-A, Triple-A, and made his big league debut.
Heading into 1999, his age-21 season, Eric Chavez was ranked as the #3 prospect in baseball. He made the Athletics as the opening day third baseman, and never looked back.
Moneyball A’s
The start of Chavez’s career coincided with the beginning of the legendary Moneyball era in Oakland. Chavez would be at the center of a young core whose narrative would forever alter baseball.
Chavez quickly established himself as an above-average big leaguer despite his tender age. In 1999-2000, Chavez averaged 109 OPS+ and 2.2 bWAR. His defense quickly improved from solid to excellent. Meanwhile, Oakland was emerging as one of the best teams in baseball.
Beginning in 2001, Chavez took his game to another level. From 2001-2003, Chavez averaged .282/.345/.522, 127 OPS+, 38 doubles, 32 homers, 108 RBI, and 5.2 bWAR. He won three Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and received MVP votes twice.
The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series. With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources.
Rather than resign former MVP shortstop Miguel Tejada after the 2003 season, Beane opted to put his money down on Chavez. In March, 2004, Chavez signed a six-year, $66 million contract extension to remain with the A’s.
Team Leader
The contract extension ultimately kept Chavez in Oakland through the 2010 season. Unfortunately, his days as a true superstar were numbered. In 2004, Chavez basically matched the previous three years, posting 5.5 bWAR while leading the A.L. in walks (95), winning his fourth Gold Glove in a row, and again receiving MVP votes. Oakland missed the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Injuries began to steadily chip away at Chavez’s physical capabilities. In 2005-2006, he won his fifth, and sixth, consecutive Gold Gloves. At the same time, his offensive production declined from star caliber to just a tick above-average at 107 OPS+. Oakland won the A.L. West in 2006, but once again fell short of the World Series.
Early Decline
The vast majority of Chavez’s career accomplishments took place prior to his age-29 season in 2007. From 2007-2010, Chavez averaged just 38 games per season at 85 OPS+. His absence was a devastating blow to an Oakland team that had committed a significant chunk of its payroll to him. The A’s never had another winning season with Chavez on the roster.
A free agent after 2010, Chavez knocked around for a few more years. He spent 2011-2012 with a pair of division winning Yankees teams. He was especially effective in 2012, posting 125 OPS+ as a part-time DH/corner bat.
In 2013-2014, Chavez played a combined 124 games for the Diamondbacks where he continued to struggle with his health. He retired after the 2014 season.
Hall of Fame?
Eric Chavez was a sneaky star player for much of the 2000s. He won six Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Somehow, he never made an All Star team despite receiving MVP votes every year from 2002-2005.
There is no question that injuries and a premature decline robbed him of any chance at Cooperstown. At the same time, even his 7-year peak falls well short of the average mark for Hall of Fame third baseman.
Chavez is likely to be one-and-done on the Hall of Fame ballot.
18. Rafael Furcal
JAWS: 35.1 (55.0 Average HOF SS)
A native of Loma de Cabrera, Dominican Republic, Rafael Furcal signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in November, 1996. At first glance, Furcal’s diminutive frame (he’s listed at 5’8″) obscured his tremendous physical talent. A switch-hitter with explosive speed, and arm strength, Furcal developed into an impressive multi-faceted contributor.
By 1999, his age-21 season, Furcal was rated #60 on Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects. A strong year across both class-A levels saw his stock rise to #8 the following year.
In 2000, the Braves were coming off their fifth straight division title, and a World Series defeat at the hands of the Yankees. For a contending team in desperate need of a shortstop, Furcal was a revelation. He forced his way to the big leagues in April despite no experience in the high minors. Furcal won the Rookie of the Year on the strength of league-average hitting, elite base-running, and strong defense. The Braves playoff streak continued.
Finding His Footing
Furcal’s offensive production regressed following his Rookie of the Year campaign. In 2001-2002, he was a well below-average hitter at 82 OPS+. Solid defense and base-running ensured he remained an acceptable starting shortstop, but the overall package was decidedly underwhelming. In the meantime, the Braves kept their streak of division titles alive.
From 2003-2005, Furcal leveled out his production. Consistently improved control of the strike zone allowed him to post average offensive numbers at .285/.348/.429, 101 OPS+. The defense and base running that established his foundation now propped the overall package up to star level at an average of 4.9 bWAR during this stretch. In 2003, was an N.L. All Star, and received MVP votes, for the first time.
The Braves won the N.L. East title in each of Furcal’s six seasons with the club. For all their regular season success, Atlanta only made it past the NLDS once in those years, and never made the World Series. Furcal hit free agency after the 2005 season.
Dodger Deal
In December, 2005, Furcal signed a 3-year, $39 million contract to play shortstop for the Dodgers. In 2006, Furcal delivered a performance in line with his recent averages at 4.4 bWAR, helping the Dodgers win the Wild Card in the process.
2007 was his worst season in six years. In 2008, he was excellent when healthy, but played just 36 regular season games. L.A. won the N.L. West anyway. Furcal returned in time for a run to the NLCS.
Furcal hit the open market again after 2008. He opted to sign another three-year contract to stay with the Dodgers. He averaged 3.8 bWAR in 2009-2010. The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Phillies in five games for the second straight year in 2009. In 2010, Furcal missed most of May, and August, but was productive enough when healthy to make the All Star team.
Unexpected Glory
A miserable start to 2011 for Furcal, and the Dodgers, resulted in a deadline deal to the Cardinals. When Furcal joined the Cardinals, the team was clinging to hope at 57-52. A seemingly rejuvenated Furcal returned to form over the final 50 games, providing a needed boost. The Cardinals won 90 games, and the N.L. Wild Card.
By the time October hit, Furcal had cemented himself as the every day shortstop and leadoff hitter for the Red Birds. Although he struggled overall during the playoffs, the Cardinals defied all the odds by defeating three teams with 96 or more wins to win the World Series.
The End
Following the World Series, Furcal re-upped for two more years with St. Louis. A hot start in 2012 earned him his third, and final, All Star selection. Tommy John surgery ended his 2013 in spring training.
At age 36, he battled his way back for a nine-game cameo with the Marlins in 2014. The following year he played seven minor league games in the Royals system before retiring.
Hall of Fame?
Rafael Furcal was a three-time All Star who also has a Rookie of the Year and World Series ring to his credit. He was an exciting player to watch. He was also a winner who played on nine playoff teams.
Like Chavez, Furcal will ultimately fall short of enshrinement in Cooperstown. He neither meets the peak, nor longevity requirements of the Hall of Fame. Also like Chavez, he was talented, well-rounded player who had a memorable career.