Category: Watch List

Rockies Watch List (2019)

In the Watch List series, we will examine four current players from each franchise with the best chance of one day cracking their All-Time Team.

Kyle Freeland

Position:  LHSP

2019 Age:  26

Career bWAR with Rockies:  11.7

Kyle Freeland was the 8th overall pick in the 2014 draft.  A Colorado boy who graduated from Thomas Jefferson High School in Denver, Freeland played his college ball in the Midwest for the University of Evansville.  A three-year starter for the Purple Aces, Freeland established himself as a high-floor starting pitching prospect due to excellent command of solid stuff.  

Despite his excellent performance as an amateur, there were questions about Freeland throughout his minor league career.  Injuries limited him to just nine starts in 2015.  He immediately fell from top-prospect status.

Although he was healthy enough to make 26 starts in 2016, his stuff did not grade out as well as it did before the injury-riddled 2015 campaign.  With just 108 strikeouts in 162 innings, Freeland no longer had the look of a clear-cut top prospect.

In a surprising turn of events, Freeland made the Rockies roster to open the 2017 season.  While he wasn’t dominant, he was healthy and effective.  In 156 innings, he worked to a 123 ERA+ and 3.2 bWAR in his rookie campaign.

Freeland broke out in a big way in 2018.  With a full big league season under his belt, he improved across the board.  His pure stuff was largely similar to his rookie campaign, but the way he used it changed. 

Freeland used more four-seam fastballs up in the zone rather than sinkers down to produce more swinging strikes.  The change up, which had been perhaps his best pitch as an amateur, was once again his bread and butter.  He threw the change twice as much as he had in his rookie year, mostly at the expense of fastballs, to devastating effect.  His walk rate dropped by half a batter per nine-innings, and his strikeout rate increased 1.5 per nine.

Freeland was among the best starters in the National League in 2018.  His 164 ERA+ and 8.4 bWAR both ranked fourth.  He was particularly excellent down the stretch, including a masterful 6.2 scoreless innings to help defeat the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game.

Outlook

With two excellent seasons to open his career, Freeland is tracking very well to make a run at the All-Time Rockies Team.  With 66 appearances and 358.1 innings under his belt, Freeland already has a shockingly good case for inclusion.

The Rockies current fifth starter is Jason Jennings.  Jennings produced 10.4 bWAR with a 103 ERA+ over 941 innings and six seasons in Colorado.  Freeland has already surpassed Jennings in career bWAR in less than half the innings.

Freeland currently has a career 143 ERA+.  The Rockies current number one starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, produced a Rockies career mark of 128.  

For the present, I have opted to make Freeland earn his inclusion on the All-Time Team with a larger body of work.  With that said, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Kyle Freeland is healthy in 2019 and doesn’t push for inclusion after just his third year in the big leagues.  

German Marquez

Position:  RHSP

2019 Age:  24

Career bWAR with Rockies:  8.1

German Marquez was born in San Felix, Venezuela.  At the opening of the international signing period on July 2, 2011, the 16-year-old Marquez signed with the Tampa Bay Rays for a $225,000 bonus.

Marquez came to the U.S. in 2013.  He got his first taste of full-season ball in 2014 at the age of 19.  By the end of 2015, Marquez had succeeded at High-A.  He showed a good mixture of command and arm strength, and was starting to look more like a legitimate prospect.

In January, 2016 the Rockies acquired Marquez as a secondary piece along with dominant left-handed reliever Jake McGee in exchange for outfielder Corey Dickerson and minor league infielder Kevin Padlo.  The big leaguers, McGee and Dickerson, each ended up providing value within the range of reasonably expected outcomes for their new teams.  The Rockies figure to win the trade on the strength of the emergence of Marquez as the best overall player in the deal.

Marquez had his best season in the minors in 2016.  He was excellent in Double-A before late promotions to Triple-A, then the majors.  Heading into 2017, Marquez was suddenly recognized as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

He started 2017 back at Triple-A Albuquerque before being recalled to Colorado in late-April.  Marquez threw 162 innings with an ERA+ of 115 to produce 3.2 bWAR.  With a mid-90s heater, and solid curve, it was clear that Marquez had the makings of a rotation building block.

Marquez took another step forward in 2018.  In 196 innings, he had a 124 ERA+ and produced 4.7 bWAR.  Improved usage of his devastating mid-80s slider transformed Marquez into one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball.  His 10.6 K/9 was fourth among NL starters.  With Freeland and Marquez leading the way, the Rockies found their way into the postseason as a Wild Card team.  

Outlook

Like Freeland, Marquez has a chance to stake a claim to a spot in the All-Time Rockies rotation in short order.  He has the foundation of a solid resume, and four years of team control remaining.

Marquez has a chance to join Freeland in passing fifth starter Jason Jennings in Rockies career bWAR by the end of 2019.  His career 118 ERA+, while not on Freeland’s level, would be behind just Ubaldo Jimenez and Jhoulys Chacin among the Rockies all-time starting pitchers.  

Freeland is ahead of Marquez on the watch list at present, but not by much.  The gap between the two could be closed within a year if things broke just so.  Beyond that, the Rockies all-time fourth starter, Aaron Cook, has a similar resume to Jennings with more innings to separate the two.  It is entirely possible that Freeland and Marquez could both force their way into the Rockies all-time starting rotation in the end.

Tyler Anderson

Position:  LHSP

2019 Age:  29

Career bWAR with Rockies:  7.5

Tyler Anderson was born and raised in Las Vegas, Nevada.  A 2008 graduate of Valley High School, Anderson was a 50th round draft pick of the Twins, but elected to enroll at the University of Oregon rather than play professional ball. 

Anderson was a three-year member of the starting rotation for the Ducks.  Similarly excellent sophomore and junior seasons propped the left-hander up into first round consideration.  The Rockies took Anderson with the 20th pick in the 2011 draft.

For an advanced college left-hander with a first round pedigree, Anderson’s climb through the Rockies system was hardly swift.  He was typically solid when healthy, but injuries nagged at him year after year.  By 2014, Anderson had made Double-A in his age 24 season, but still had not started more than 23 games in any single season of his career.

When elbow woes cost him all of 2015, Anderson’s stock plummeted.  For a player who increasingly looked like a back-end starting pitcher at best, a lost season at age 25 was hardly something he could afford.

When Anderson returned to the mound healthy in 2016, it was clear he had been underestimated at his lowest point.  It took him five starts in the upper minors to earn his first big league call up in June.  In 19 starts, Anderson went 114.1 innings of 137 ERA+ to produce 3.2 bWAR.

Anderson struggled to stay on the mound again in 2017.  He missed time in June, then all of July and August before returning in September.  He finished the year with 86 innings at 105 ERA+ at the big league level producing 1.2 bWAR.

Anderson was surprisingly durable in 2018.  He established new career highs with 32 starts and 176 innings.  He worked to 103 ERA+ and produced 3.0 bWAR.  Anderson combined with Freeland and Marquez to establish a new-look Rockies rotation capable of pitching the team into the playoffs.

Outlook

Anderson has now worked 376.1 innings at the big league level with a career ERA+ mark at 112.  With three years of team control remaining, Anderson probably has enough time to accumulate the necessary innings to put him in the discussion to pass Jason Jennings for the final spot in the team’s starting rotation.

Health will remain a concern for Anderson going forward.  While 2018’s durability represents significant progress, it’s hardly fair to call it a trend at this point.  Additionally, Anderson has looked like a back-end starter more often than not over the past two seasons.  If his effectiveness continues to drift closer to that of Jennings and Aaron Cook, his shorter track record would become a factor.

Beyond that, both Freeland and Marquez look like better bets to overtake Jennings and perhaps Cook at this point.  Anderson could more or less do his part but still end up on the outside of the final picture.  One or more of his current teammates could beat him to the punch, and raise the bar he has to clear.  In that way, Anderson is aiming at a moving target sitting behind Freeland and Marquez.

Jon Gray

Position:  RHSP

2019 Age:  27

Career bWAR with Rockies:  7.0

Jon Gray was born and raised in Oklahoma.  A 2010 graduate of Chandler High School, Gray was a 13th round draft pick of the Royals. 

Instead of signing a professional contract, Gray went the Junior College route, and enrolled at East Oklahoma State College.  Gray continued to show excellent stuff, prompting the Yankees to take him in the 10th round of the 2011 draft.  Gray again opted to stay in school rather than accept the Yankees offer of $500,000.  Instead he transferred to the University of Oklahoma for his sophomore season.  

Gray made an immediate impact in the Sooners rotation as a dominant power pitcher.  His junior year was even better.  Gray was arguably the most dominant college pitcher in the nation during the 2013 campaign.  Gray’s stuff spiked– he was regularly touching triple-digits, with several reports that he hit as high as 102 for Oklahoma.  A devastating slider, and improved control, made him nearly unhittable in college.  

Desperate to develop an effective big league starting rotation, the Rockies took Gray with the third overall pick in the 2013 draft.  After turning down $500,000 two years earlier, Gray received a Rockies-record $4.8 million signing bonus.  After years of substandard big league pitching, the Rockies hoped that Gray’s elite power arsenal would finally be the antidote to pitching in Coors Field.

Gray spent the 2014 season doing solid work in his own back yard at Double-A Tulsa.  He was sent to Triple-A Albuquerque to begin 2015.  The Pacific Coast League is home to some of the most favorable offensive environments in baseball, and Gray would need the preparation for life in Colorado.  After a respectable run in Triple-A, the Rockies gave Gray his first taste of the big leagues with a nine-game trial beginning in August.  He was a little BABIP unlucky, but piled up 40 strikeouts in 40.2 innings to show he was ready for the big time.

In 2016, Gray worked 168 innings at 105 ERA+ to produce 2.0 bWAR.  He was just 24 years old.

Gray took a step forward in 2017.  Although he dealt with nagging injuries early in the year, Gray hit his stride late in the season.  In 20 starts, Gray went 110.1 innings at 138 ERA+.  He produced 3.1 bWAR in only about two-thirds of a season.  Gray showed that if he could limit walks, he was capable of working at ace-caliber levels for the Rockies.  His excellent late-season stretch helped the Rockies reach the NL Wildcard Game.

Although it appeared 2017 might be a sign of things to come for Gray, he found the going much tougher in 2018.  Gray was hit harder than at any point since his 2015 debut.  While he still put up strikeout and walk numbers inline with his overall career, he yielded 27 homers after allowing just 28 in the previous two years combined.  He contributed 1.7 bWAR towards the Rockies second straight Wild Card team.

Outlook

Gray has now worked 491.1 innings in the big leagues with a career 104 ERA+.  With three years of team control remaining, Gray is lumped into a similar category with Tyler Anderson in terms of his chances to make the All-Time Rockies Team.  You can pretty easily argue that Gray actually has a better chance. He is younger, has better pure stuff, and a better track record of health.  

Gray’s issues stem from his own inconsistency.  An extended stretch along the lines of what we saw in 2017 would allow him to lay claim to being one of the best pitchers in franchise history.  Unfortunately, 2018 is the most recent data we have.  While I fully expect that Gray has better seasons than 2018 ahead of him, its unclear how often they will come, or whether they will be in Colorado, or elsewhere in his 30s.

Wrapping Up

Even with four members of the Rockies 2018 rotation on the Watch List, there are still a few other interesting names to track.  Antonio Senzatela will be just 24 in 2019 and has already shown that he too can be an above-average big league arm.  Reliever Scott Oberg was absurdly good in 2018, but as he enters his age 29 season, it’s unclear if he can repeat it.  Outfielder David Dahl has tremendous natural offensive talent and will be just 25 next year.  If he can stay healthy, it’s not hard to imagine him putting up some huge numbers in Coors Field.

In the minors, it’s harder to find more than a couple of players that fit the mold of potential franchise greats at this point.  Former first-rounder Brendan Rodgers has long been a top prospect as a middle-infielder with big offensive potential.  Rodgers has a solid season at Double-A under his belt.  With Franchise Phenom D.J. LeMahieu heading for free agency, it’s entirely possible the Rockies will clear out second base to give Rodgers his shot.  Rodgers has the type of offensive upside that could lead to a nice career in Colorado.

2016 first-rounder Riley Pint has the same type of unbelievable stuff as Jon Gray.  At the same time, he has struggled to stay healthy and lacks Gray’s command.  An eventual move to the bullpen could be in everyone’s best interests.  

Phillies Watch List (2019)

In the Watch List series, we will examine four current players from each franchise with the best chance of one day cracking their All-Time Team.

Aaron Nola

Position:  RHSP

2019 Age:  26

Career bWAR with Phillies:  16.

Aaron Nola was the 7th overall pick in the 2014 draft.  Pitching for his hometown team, the LSU Tigers, Nola had proven to be a dominant collegiate pitcher in the SEC.  Due to his advanced command and feel, Nola was viewed as a good bet to contribute to the big league rotation in short order.

Nola climbed through the Philadelphia system quickly.  He reached Double-A by the end of his draft year.  Half-way through 2015, he made Triple-A.  He made his big league debut just over a year after he was drafted in July, 2015.

In his 13-game trial during 2015, Nola acquitted himself nicely.  The rookie right-hander posted a 107 ERA+ while continuing to demonstrate advanced command.

2016 was somewhat less successful.  While suffering through an elbow injury that threatened to derail his promising career, Nola struggled a bit.  In 111 innings, his ERA+ was just 87.  Some bad luck on batted balls gave the impression that some of the shine had worn off the promising hurler.  His 3.08 FIP, combined with a strikeout rate that was up almost a full two K/9 from his rookie year, told a very different story.

In 2017, Nola again missed a handful of starts managing injury.  When he was healthy, his BABIP corrected itself while his strikeout and walk rates held strong.  By the end of the season, he was healthy and rolling.  He finished the year with 122 ERA+ over 168 innings, and 4.3 bWAR.  

Nola blew up in 2018.  In 212.1 innings over 33 starts, he was 17-6 with a 3.01 ERA.  His strikeout and walk rates held steady, and this time he was lucky on the batted ball front.  He finished with 175 ERA+ and 10.5 bWAR, tops among NL pitchers.  He also made his first All Star team.

Outlook

Nola’s monster 2018 campaign has set him on a favorable course to make a run at the Phillies All-Time Team.  With 93 starts under his belt, he is tracking quite nicely.  He is 41-28 with a 3.35 ERA, 124 ERA+, and continually strong strikeout and walk rates.  He now has 16.5 career bWAR.

The Phillies current fifth starter is Chris Short.  Short amassed 32.1 bWAR in 14 seasons with the Phillies.  In terms of longevity, Nola has some work to do to earn true consideration.

At the same time, Short is clearly reachable for Nola on the dominance side of the equation.  A two-time All Star who never received Cy Young votes, Short’s spot was earned with long-term reliability.  Short’s ERA+ was 105.  

Nola can be a free agent after the 2021 season, giving him three more years of team control.  He probably needs something more like six or seven additional healthy and effective seasons in Philadelphia to surpass Short.  A contract extension will be required, but as it stands, that certainly seems possible.

Seranthony Dominguez

Position:  RHRP

2019 Age:  24

Career bWAR with Phillies:  2.4

Seranthony Dominguez was signed out of the Dominican Republic in October, 2011.  He spent two seasons in the Dominican Summer League before heading stateside in 2014.  He pitched just 33.2 innings from 2014-2015.

By the time he was 21, Dominguez still had not established himself as a particularly interesting prospect in the Phillies system.  The organization’s patience began to payoff in 2016 as he was effective across two levels of A-Ball.  He was promoted to High-A in 2017 where he continued to show the ability to miss bats with premium velocity and improving secondary pitches.

Dominguez was shifted to the bullpen full-time in 2018.  He was dominant across 11 appearances in the upper minors before making his big league debut at the beginning of May.  By the end of the month he had worked his way into the picture for saves.  By the end of the season, he had a lock on the closer’s role.

In 58 innings, Dominguez finished with a 2.95 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 16 saves.  Although it’s just one season, his 142 ERA+ has him tracking towards a bullpen spot on the Phillies All-Time Team.  

Outlook

With a fastball that averages 98 mph backed up by an effective slider and change up, Dominguez should have more good days ahead.  His 2.85 FIP almost identically matched his actual ERA, indicating that a healthy Dominguez is a good bet to continue dominating the late innings and racking up saves for the foreseeable future.

The final three arms in the Phillies bullpen are all reachable for Dominguez.  None of Turk Farrell, Ricky Bottalico, or Mitch Williams had a Phillies ERA+ better than 119.  

As a player still working through his rookie contract who has already established himself as an effective late-inning force, Dominguez has a strong chance to crack the Phillies roster.  General health concerns for all pitchers, and the particular volatility of relief pitchers, are the primary potential roadblocks going forward.  Dominguez has work to do, but clearly has the tools, and opportunity, to be immortalized as a Phillies great.

Rhys Hoskins

Position:  LF/1B

2019 Age:  26

Career bWAR with Phillies:  2.5

Rhys Hoskins was a fifth round draft pick out of Sacramento State University in 2014.  A big-bodied slugger, Hoskins posted a 1.001 OPS during his draft year in the WAC.  He was productive during his first full professional season, but as a right-handed hitter with limited defensive value, it was fair to be skeptical about his long term prospects.

In 2016, Hoskins mashed 38 homers in the hitter-friendly confines of Reading in the Double-A Eastern League.  With the power starting to play in games, it was clear Hoskins was a bat to watch going forward.

After he hit 29 homers in 115 games to begin the 2017 season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies promoted him to the big leagues in August.  The 24-year-old slugged another 18 homers in just 50 games, giving him 47 total for the year.  Rhys Hoskins had arrived.

Hoskins split time between first base and left field during his debut.  After the Phillies signed Carlos Santana in the off season, it was clear that Hoskins would have to spend more time in left going forward.  

2018 was another solid season at the plate for Hoskins.  Although he exhibited a little less control over the strike zone, and his torrid home run pace from 2017 inevitably slowed, he still posted 125 OPS+ with 34 homers and 87 walks.  

Outlook

Through his first 203 games, Hoskins has posted an excellent 134 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR.  The disparity between his offensive exploits and overall value to the Phillies is wrapped up on the defensive side of the ball.  An adequate first baseman, but below-average left fielder, Hoskins’s career WAR totals figure to be held down as a result of the Phillies playing him out of position.

His competition in the outfield is fierce with Hall of Famers and elite hitters littered across the roster.  At first, he is well off the pace of Dick Allen, and likewise has a long way to go to match Ryan Howard‘s body of work in Philly.

Hoskins can be a free agent after the 2023 season.  He probably isn’t a strong bet to be an all-time Phillies great.  At the same time, his elite power production gives him a better chance than most to crack the roster of one of the game’s oldest franchises.

Jorge Alfaro

Position:  C

2019 Age:  26

Career bWAR with Phillies:  1.7

Jorge Alfaro was signed by the Texas Rangers out of Colombia in January, 2010.  During his climb through the Texas system, Alfaro earned the nickname “The Legend” for his prodigious physical tools highlighted by an 80-grade arm, and 70 power.  

By the time Alfaro was 20, it appeared that he was on the fast track to super-stardom as an exciting two-way catcher.  Instead, the upper-minors revealed that his control of the strike zone was problematic, and his defense needed refinement.  The package was still attractive, but by the time he was 22, he was no longer untouchable.

With the Rangers working towards an AL West championship in 2015, the club pulled the trigger on a deal to acquire Phillies Franchise Phenom, Cole Hamels at the July 31 trade deadline.  Alfaro was one of the headliners in the six-player return the Phillies received for one of the best pitchers in their history.

Alfaro made his debut in Philadelphia the next year with a cup of coffee.  He spent most of 2017 languishing in Triple-A before showing signs of life in the majors during August and September.

In 2018, he was the primary catcher for the Phillies.  In 108 games, he posted 95 OPS+ while playing respectable defense and contributing 1.2 bWAR.  

Outlook

Alfaro remains under Phillies control through the 2023 season.  Offensively, the strike zone remains an issue, but the power is still there.  The tools to be an above-average defender remain as well.  

The backup catcher for the Phillies, Mike Lieberthal, averaged less than two WAR/season even during his prime.  Alfaro has already proven he can match that level of production while retaining the upside to be even better. 

Given that Lieberthal played 1174 games over parts of 13 seasons in Philly, Alfaro will have to cash in on the promise of his prospect days to overtake him.

Wrapping Up

The 2018 Phillies boasted a foursome of additional pitchers who produced 2+ bWAR.  Nick Pivetta, Victor Arano, and Zack Eflin probably lack the pure stuff and upside to be realistic candidates as starting pitchers.  Vince Velasquez has some of the best stuff on the staff, but has yet to really put it all together heading into his age 27 season.

In the minor leagues, the Phillies system has some depth, but appears to be lacking in upside.  Top-prospect Sixto Sanchez has the type of stuff you can dream on, but has yet to reach Double-A and fought through a balky elbow this year.  Third baseman Alec Bohm was the third overall pick out of Wichita State in 2018.  His pro debut was unimpressive, but the upside to be an impact corner bat remains.  

White Sox Watch List (2019)

In the Watch List series, we will examine four current players from each franchise with the best chance of one day cracking their All-Time Team.

Eloy Jimenez

Position:  OF

2019 Age:  22

Career bWAR with Sox:  0

Although he has yet to make his big league debut, the legend surrounding White Sox outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez has already begun to grow.

Jimenez played the entire 2018 season at age 21, and dominated the upper minors all year.  In a season split between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte, Jimenez established himself as the best outfield prospect in the minors.  In 108 games he combined to hit .337/.384/.577 with 28 doubles, 22 homers, and 32 walks against just 69 strikeouts.

Although he was clearly ready for a promotion late in the summer, the White Sox opted to shut him down at the conclusion of Charlotte’s season.  In the process, the Sox will secure an extra season of control over Jimenez during what figure to be his prime years.

Jimenez remains on track to be a standout hitter at the big league level as soon as next season.  As a corner outfielder he may not provide much defensive value, but he should be able to hold his own on that front.

It remains to be seen if the present drama over his delayed promotion to the big leagues will factor into any future contract extension discussions.  Regardless, Jimenez is as good a bet as any current player to have a long, dominant career on the South Side.

Outlook

The reserve outfielders on the White Sox All-Time Team are no slouches, but Jimenez clearly has the talent to perform at that level, or better, for years to come.  Harold Baines has a lengthy career, and strong White Sox legacy to overcome.  Meanwhile, Magglio Ordonez posted better rate numbers than Baines, but his White Sox career was significantly shorter.  Jimenez could, theoretically, follow a similar career path to either player.  In a perfect world, he would combine the best attributes of both to push for a spot among the Sox All-Time starting nine.

Jose Abreu

Position:  1B

2019 Age:  32

Career bWAR with Sox:  18.7

When Jose Abreu signed a free agent with the White Sox in October, 2013, nobody seemed to be sure exactly how his dominance in Cuba would translate to the highest level of the game.

Abreu proved to be an immediate impact player.  In 2014, he led the AL in OPS+ (173) and slugging (.581) on the way to the All Star game, Rookie of the Year honors, and a 4th place finish in the MVP voting.  

Unfortunately, 2014 has represented Abreu’s career year up to this point.  Given that he was 27 years old at the time, it may stay that way.

On the other hand, Abreu has been remarkably consistent since.  With about two weeks remaining in the 2018 season, Abreu sits with a career 138 OPS+, while averaging 3.7 bWAR/season.

Outlook

Abreu’s career to date demonstrates the potential to end up in the same category as Baines, Ordonez, and even starting first baseman Paul Konerko among the great sluggers in White Sox history.

At this point, Abreu’s greatest hurdle appears to be father time.  He has a chance to be a free agent after the 2019 season.  Were he to depart after next season, he would almost definitely fall short of the bar needed for inclusion on the All-Time Team.  A contract extension appears to necessary for him to get there.  In the event of an extension, he would probably need to remain a well above-average hitter into his mid-30s to secure his place.

None of that is impossible, but it’s hardly probable.  Even still, the first five years of his career have produced enough of a foundation for Abreu to sit near the top of the White Sox Watch List.

Yoan Moncada

Position:  2B

2019 Age:  24

Career bWAR with Sox:  3.1

Like his countryman Abreu, Yoan Moncada is among the highest profile Cuban players in recent years.  After signing as a free agent with the Red Sox in March, 2015, Moncada quickly established himself as one of the top prospects in the minor leagues.  The White Sox acquired him from Boston in December, 2016 as part of the deal that sent Franchise Phenom Chris Sale to the Red Sox.

After a cup of coffee with Boston, the White Sox brough Moncada to the big leagues for good in July, 2017.

At this point, Moncada clearly has work to do in order to realize his considerable potential.  He figures to finish the 2018 season with a little over 200 career games in the big leagues, and a career OPS+ on the low side of average.  He is on pace to the lead the American League in strikeouts this year.  His defense at second base is currently adequate at best.

While it’s fair to say that some of the shine has worn off of Moncada since his days as a top prospect, there is still reason to be hopeful.  His loud tools, including 60-grade power, and 70-grade speed, landed him a massive $31.5 million signing bonus as an amateur.  Despite his slow adaptation to the big leagues, those tools remain the basis for his potential to be an all-time great for the White Sox.

His current 162 game average clearly demonstrates a talented, but flawed player.  The .228/.315/.397 line is carrying the heavy weight of 231 strikeouts.  At the same time, he is averaging 74 walks, 28 doubles, 7 triples, and 20 homers. 

Outlook

While the current version of Moncada is a far cry from an all-time great, there is hope.  Moncada would hardly be the first player to consolidate his skills, and emerge as a much better player in his prime.  Any meaningful improvement in his strikeout rate, for example, would beget tremendous improvements across the board on offense.

Similarly, there is significant room for improvement on defense.  Improved focus and technique at second base, or perhaps even a position switch to the outfield, could suddenly make Moncada a much more valuable player.

At this point, the Sox control Moncada’s rights through the 2023 season.  With the team in the middle of a massive rebuild, they remain heavily invested in his development.  If he realizes his ridiculous potential, it will likely be in Chicago.

I’m willing to bet on the tools, and skills, he has already shown.  I fully expect Moncada to be a star-caliber player at some point in his career.  In order to have a chance to edge out Hall of Famers such as Luis Aparicio, and Nellie Fox, he will have to make those adjustments sooner, rather than later.

Michael Kopech

Position:  RHSP

2019 Age:  23

Career bWAR with Sox:  0.1

Michael Kopech was the 33rd overall pick in the 2014 draft.  The Boston Red Sox bet on Kopech’s impressive physical tools including elite arm strength, and a projectable frame.

In his methodical climb through the Boston system, Kopech’s projection slowly became reality.  His velocity continued to climb, regularly reaching triple digits.  The life on his heater helps make the pitch an elite offering.  While Kopech struggled with the finer points of pitching including control and changing speeds in the low-minors, the talent was obvious.

By the end of 2016, Kopech was clearly making progress across the board.  In December, Kopech joined Yoan Moncada as the headliners in the White Sox return for Chris Sale.  

For much of 2017-2018, Kopech was largely the same pitcher.  A flame-thrower with filthy stuff whose shaky control threatened to undermine the entire package as a starter. 

Midway through 2018, Kopech’s command took a quantum leap.  He mowed down Triple-A hitters in July and August before earning his first start in the big leagues on August 21.  The command largely survived the trip to Chicago, and Kopech flashed moments of dominance in his first three starts.

After he was roughed up in his fourth outing on September 4, it was announced that Kopech had been diagnosed with a UCL tear.  With Tommy John surgery lurking, Kopech now stands to face the long road to recovery while missing the entire 2019 season.

Outlook

I must confess that I am not particularly optimistic about Kopech’s chances to be an all-time great for the White Sox.  While I expect that he will continue to show dominance when healthy, it remains to be seen how often he will be able to manage that.  In any case, we won’t know anything new until 2020.

Wrapping Up

Despite all of the questions surrounding Kopech, his immense physical talent gives him the edge for the final spot on this list.

Starting pitchers Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez have all shown flashes, but due to lesser stuff, and shorter length of team control remaining, none of them are better bets than Kopech.

Reliever Nate Jones holds a career 137 ERA+, but has struggled to stay healthy the past two seasons.  He probably needs 2-3 more healthy, and effective, seasons to be considered.

Shortstop Tim Anderson is not far from Moncada at this stage in their careers.  He has been similarly inconsistent on defense, and his hacktastic approach makes it less likely he develops into a superstar than his double-play partner.