In the Watch List series, we will examine four current players from each franchise with the best chance of one day cracking their All-Time Team.
Aaron Nola
Position: RHSP
2019 Age: 26
Career bWAR with Phillies: 16.
Aaron Nola was the 7th overall pick in the 2014 draft. Pitching for his hometown team, the LSU Tigers, Nola had proven to be a dominant collegiate pitcher in the SEC. Due to his advanced command and feel, Nola was viewed as a good bet to contribute to the big league rotation in short order.
Nola climbed through the Philadelphia system quickly. He reached Double-A by the end of his draft year. Half-way through 2015, he made Triple-A. He made his big league debut just over a year after he was drafted in July, 2015.
In his 13-game trial during 2015, Nola acquitted himself nicely. The rookie right-hander posted a 107 ERA+ while continuing to demonstrate advanced command.
2016 was somewhat less successful. While suffering through an elbow injury that threatened to derail his promising career, Nola struggled a bit. In 111 innings, his ERA+ was just 87. Some bad luck on batted balls gave the impression that some of the shine had worn off the promising hurler. His 3.08 FIP, combined with a strikeout rate that was up almost a full two K/9 from his rookie year, told a very different story.
In 2017, Nola again missed a handful of starts managing injury. When he was healthy, his BABIP corrected itself while his strikeout and walk rates held strong. By the end of the season, he was healthy and rolling. He finished the year with 122 ERA+ over 168 innings, and 4.3 bWAR.
Nola blew up in 2018. In 212.1 innings over 33 starts, he was 17-6 with a 3.01 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates held steady, and this time he was lucky on the batted ball front. He finished with 175 ERA+ and 10.5 bWAR, tops among NL pitchers. He also made his first All Star team.
Outlook
Nola’s monster 2018 campaign has set him on a favorable course to make a run at the Phillies All-Time Team. With 93 starts under his belt, he is tracking quite nicely. He is 41-28 with a 3.35 ERA, 124 ERA+, and continually strong strikeout and walk rates. He now has 16.5 career bWAR.
The Phillies current fifth starter is Chris Short. Short amassed 32.1 bWAR in 14 seasons with the Phillies. In terms of longevity, Nola has some work to do to earn true consideration.
At the same time, Short is clearly reachable for Nola on the dominance side of the equation. A two-time All Star who never received Cy Young votes, Short’s spot was earned with long-term reliability. Short’s ERA+ was 105.
Nola can be a free agent after the 2021 season, giving him three more years of team control. He probably needs something more like six or seven additional healthy and effective seasons in Philadelphia to surpass Short. A contract extension will be required, but as it stands, that certainly seems possible.
Seranthony Dominguez
Position: RHRP
2019 Age: 24
Career bWAR with Phillies: 2.4
Seranthony Dominguez was signed out of the Dominican Republic in October, 2011. He spent two seasons in the Dominican Summer League before heading stateside in 2014. He pitched just 33.2 innings from 2014-2015.
By the time he was 21, Dominguez still had not established himself as a particularly interesting prospect in the Phillies system. The organization’s patience began to payoff in 2016 as he was effective across two levels of A-Ball. He was promoted to High-A in 2017 where he continued to show the ability to miss bats with premium velocity and improving secondary pitches.
Dominguez was shifted to the bullpen full-time in 2018. He was dominant across 11 appearances in the upper minors before making his big league debut at the beginning of May. By the end of the month he had worked his way into the picture for saves. By the end of the season, he had a lock on the closer’s role.
In 58 innings, Dominguez finished with a 2.95 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 16 saves. Although it’s just one season, his 142 ERA+ has him tracking towards a bullpen spot on the Phillies All-Time Team.
Outlook
With a fastball that averages 98 mph backed up by an effective slider and change up, Dominguez should have more good days ahead. His 2.85 FIP almost identically matched his actual ERA, indicating that a healthy Dominguez is a good bet to continue dominating the late innings and racking up saves for the foreseeable future.
The final three arms in the Phillies bullpen are all reachable for Dominguez. None of Turk Farrell, Ricky Bottalico, or Mitch Williams had a Phillies ERA+ better than 119.
As a player still working through his rookie contract who has already established himself as an effective late-inning force, Dominguez has a strong chance to crack the Phillies roster. General health concerns for all pitchers, and the particular volatility of relief pitchers, are the primary potential roadblocks going forward. Dominguez has work to do, but clearly has the tools, and opportunity, to be immortalized as a Phillies great.
Rhys Hoskins
Position: LF/1B
2019 Age: 26
Career bWAR with Phillies: 2.5
Rhys Hoskins was a fifth round draft pick out of Sacramento State University in 2014. A big-bodied slugger, Hoskins posted a 1.001 OPS during his draft year in the WAC. He was productive during his first full professional season, but as a right-handed hitter with limited defensive value, it was fair to be skeptical about his long term prospects.
In 2016, Hoskins mashed 38 homers in the hitter-friendly confines of Reading in the Double-A Eastern League. With the power starting to play in games, it was clear Hoskins was a bat to watch going forward.
After he hit 29 homers in 115 games to begin the 2017 season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies promoted him to the big leagues in August. The 24-year-old slugged another 18 homers in just 50 games, giving him 47 total for the year. Rhys Hoskins had arrived.
Hoskins split time between first base and left field during his debut. After the Phillies signed Carlos Santana in the off season, it was clear that Hoskins would have to spend more time in left going forward.
2018 was another solid season at the plate for Hoskins. Although he exhibited a little less control over the strike zone, and his torrid home run pace from 2017 inevitably slowed, he still posted 125 OPS+ with 34 homers and 87 walks.
Outlook
Through his first 203 games, Hoskins has posted an excellent 134 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR. The disparity between his offensive exploits and overall value to the Phillies is wrapped up on the defensive side of the ball. An adequate first baseman, but below-average left fielder, Hoskins’s career WAR totals figure to be held down as a result of the Phillies playing him out of position.
His competition in the outfield is fierce with Hall of Famers and elite hitters littered across the roster. At first, he is well off the pace of Dick Allen, and likewise has a long way to go to match Ryan Howard‘s body of work in Philly.
Hoskins can be a free agent after the 2023 season. He probably isn’t a strong bet to be an all-time Phillies great. At the same time, his elite power production gives him a better chance than most to crack the roster of one of the game’s oldest franchises.
Jorge Alfaro
Position: C
2019 Age: 26
Career bWAR with Phillies: 1.7
Jorge Alfaro was signed by the Texas Rangers out of Colombia in January, 2010. During his climb through the Texas system, Alfaro earned the nickname “The Legend” for his prodigious physical tools highlighted by an 80-grade arm, and 70 power.
By the time Alfaro was 20, it appeared that he was on the fast track to super-stardom as an exciting two-way catcher. Instead, the upper-minors revealed that his control of the strike zone was problematic, and his defense needed refinement. The package was still attractive, but by the time he was 22, he was no longer untouchable.
With the Rangers working towards an AL West championship in 2015, the club pulled the trigger on a deal to acquire Phillies Franchise Phenom, Cole Hamels at the July 31 trade deadline. Alfaro was one of the headliners in the six-player return the Phillies received for one of the best pitchers in their history.
Alfaro made his debut in Philadelphia the next year with a cup of coffee. He spent most of 2017 languishing in Triple-A before showing signs of life in the majors during August and September.
In 2018, he was the primary catcher for the Phillies. In 108 games, he posted 95 OPS+ while playing respectable defense and contributing 1.2 bWAR.
Outlook
Alfaro remains under Phillies control through the 2023 season. Offensively, the strike zone remains an issue, but the power is still there. The tools to be an above-average defender remain as well.
The backup catcher for the Phillies, Mike Lieberthal, averaged less than two WAR/season even during his prime. Alfaro has already proven he can match that level of production while retaining the upside to be even better.
Given that Lieberthal played 1174 games over parts of 13 seasons in Philly, Alfaro will have to cash in on the promise of his prospect days to overtake him.
Wrapping Up
The 2018 Phillies boasted a foursome of additional pitchers who produced 2+ bWAR. Nick Pivetta, Victor Arano, and Zack Eflin probably lack the pure stuff and upside to be realistic candidates as starting pitchers. Vince Velasquez has some of the best stuff on the staff, but has yet to really put it all together heading into his age 27 season.
In the minor leagues, the Phillies system has some depth, but appears to be lacking in upside. Top-prospect Sixto Sanchez has the type of stuff you can dream on, but has yet to reach Double-A and fought through a balky elbow this year. Third baseman Alec Bohm was the third overall pick out of Wichita State in 2018. His pro debut was unimpressive, but the upside to be an impact corner bat remains.