In the Watch List series, we will examine four current players from each franchise with the best chance of one day cracking their All-Time Team.
Kyle Freeland
Position: LHSP
2019 Age: 26
Career bWAR with Rockies: 11.7
Kyle Freeland was the 8th overall pick in the 2014 draft. A Colorado boy who graduated from Thomas Jefferson High School in Denver, Freeland played his college ball in the Midwest for the University of Evansville. A three-year starter for the Purple Aces, Freeland established himself as a high-floor starting pitching prospect due to excellent command of solid stuff.
Despite his excellent performance as an amateur, there were questions about Freeland throughout his minor league career. Injuries limited him to just nine starts in 2015. He immediately fell from top-prospect status.
Although he was healthy enough to make 26 starts in 2016, his stuff did not grade out as well as it did before the injury-riddled 2015 campaign. With just 108 strikeouts in 162 innings, Freeland no longer had the look of a clear-cut top prospect.
In a surprising turn of events, Freeland made the Rockies roster to open the 2017 season. While he wasn’t dominant, he was healthy and effective. In 156 innings, he worked to a 123 ERA+ and 3.2 bWAR in his rookie campaign.
Freeland broke out in a big way in 2018. With a full big league season under his belt, he improved across the board. His pure stuff was largely similar to his rookie campaign, but the way he used it changed.
Freeland used more four-seam fastballs up in the zone rather than sinkers down to produce more swinging strikes. The change up, which had been perhaps his best pitch as an amateur, was once again his bread and butter. He threw the change twice as much as he had in his rookie year, mostly at the expense of fastballs, to devastating effect. His walk rate dropped by half a batter per nine-innings, and his strikeout rate increased 1.5 per nine.
Freeland was among the best starters in the National League in 2018. His 164 ERA+ and 8.4 bWAR both ranked fourth. He was particularly excellent down the stretch, including a masterful 6.2 scoreless innings to help defeat the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game.
Outlook
With two excellent seasons to open his career, Freeland is tracking very well to make a run at the All-Time Rockies Team. With 66 appearances and 358.1 innings under his belt, Freeland already has a shockingly good case for inclusion.
The Rockies current fifth starter is Jason Jennings. Jennings produced 10.4 bWAR with a 103 ERA+ over 941 innings and six seasons in Colorado. Freeland has already surpassed Jennings in career bWAR in less than half the innings.
Freeland currently has a career 143 ERA+. The Rockies current number one starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, produced a Rockies career mark of 128.
For the present, I have opted to make Freeland earn his inclusion on the All-Time Team with a larger body of work. With that said, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Kyle Freeland is healthy in 2019 and doesn’t push for inclusion after just his third year in the big leagues.
German Marquez
Position: RHSP
2019 Age: 24
Career bWAR with Rockies: 8.1
German Marquez was born in San Felix, Venezuela. At the opening of the international signing period on July 2, 2011, the 16-year-old Marquez signed with the Tampa Bay Rays for a $225,000 bonus.
Marquez came to the U.S. in 2013. He got his first taste of full-season ball in 2014 at the age of 19. By the end of 2015, Marquez had succeeded at High-A. He showed a good mixture of command and arm strength, and was starting to look more like a legitimate prospect.
In January, 2016 the Rockies acquired Marquez as a secondary piece along with dominant left-handed reliever Jake McGee in exchange for outfielder Corey Dickerson and minor league infielder Kevin Padlo. The big leaguers, McGee and Dickerson, each ended up providing value within the range of reasonably expected outcomes for their new teams. The Rockies figure to win the trade on the strength of the emergence of Marquez as the best overall player in the deal.
Marquez had his best season in the minors in 2016. He was excellent in Double-A before late promotions to Triple-A, then the majors. Heading into 2017, Marquez was suddenly recognized as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.
He started 2017 back at Triple-A Albuquerque before being recalled to Colorado in late-April. Marquez threw 162 innings with an ERA+ of 115 to produce 3.2 bWAR. With a mid-90s heater, and solid curve, it was clear that Marquez had the makings of a rotation building block.
Marquez took another step forward in 2018. In 196 innings, he had a 124 ERA+ and produced 4.7 bWAR. Improved usage of his devastating mid-80s slider transformed Marquez into one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. His 10.6 K/9 was fourth among NL starters. With Freeland and Marquez leading the way, the Rockies found their way into the postseason as a Wild Card team.
Outlook
Like Freeland, Marquez has a chance to stake a claim to a spot in the All-Time Rockies rotation in short order. He has the foundation of a solid resume, and four years of team control remaining.
Marquez has a chance to join Freeland in passing fifth starter Jason Jennings in Rockies career bWAR by the end of 2019. His career 118 ERA+, while not on Freeland’s level, would be behind just Ubaldo Jimenez and Jhoulys Chacin among the Rockies all-time starting pitchers.
Freeland is ahead of Marquez on the watch list at present, but not by much. The gap between the two could be closed within a year if things broke just so. Beyond that, the Rockies all-time fourth starter, Aaron Cook, has a similar resume to Jennings with more innings to separate the two. It is entirely possible that Freeland and Marquez could both force their way into the Rockies all-time starting rotation in the end.
Tyler Anderson
Position: LHSP
2019 Age: 29
Career bWAR with Rockies: 7.5
Tyler Anderson was born and raised in Las Vegas, Nevada. A 2008 graduate of Valley High School, Anderson was a 50th round draft pick of the Twins, but elected to enroll at the University of Oregon rather than play professional ball.
Anderson was a three-year member of the starting rotation for the Ducks. Similarly excellent sophomore and junior seasons propped the left-hander up into first round consideration. The Rockies took Anderson with the 20th pick in the 2011 draft.
For an advanced college left-hander with a first round pedigree, Anderson’s climb through the Rockies system was hardly swift. He was typically solid when healthy, but injuries nagged at him year after year. By 2014, Anderson had made Double-A in his age 24 season, but still had not started more than 23 games in any single season of his career.
When elbow woes cost him all of 2015, Anderson’s stock plummeted. For a player who increasingly looked like a back-end starting pitcher at best, a lost season at age 25 was hardly something he could afford.
When Anderson returned to the mound healthy in 2016, it was clear he had been underestimated at his lowest point. It took him five starts in the upper minors to earn his first big league call up in June. In 19 starts, Anderson went 114.1 innings of 137 ERA+ to produce 3.2 bWAR.
Anderson struggled to stay on the mound again in 2017. He missed time in June, then all of July and August before returning in September. He finished the year with 86 innings at 105 ERA+ at the big league level producing 1.2 bWAR.
Anderson was surprisingly durable in 2018. He established new career highs with 32 starts and 176 innings. He worked to 103 ERA+ and produced 3.0 bWAR. Anderson combined with Freeland and Marquez to establish a new-look Rockies rotation capable of pitching the team into the playoffs.
Outlook
Anderson has now worked 376.1 innings at the big league level with a career ERA+ mark at 112. With three years of team control remaining, Anderson probably has enough time to accumulate the necessary innings to put him in the discussion to pass Jason Jennings for the final spot in the team’s starting rotation.
Health will remain a concern for Anderson going forward. While 2018’s durability represents significant progress, it’s hardly fair to call it a trend at this point. Additionally, Anderson has looked like a back-end starter more often than not over the past two seasons. If his effectiveness continues to drift closer to that of Jennings and Aaron Cook, his shorter track record would become a factor.
Beyond that, both Freeland and Marquez look like better bets to overtake Jennings and perhaps Cook at this point. Anderson could more or less do his part but still end up on the outside of the final picture. One or more of his current teammates could beat him to the punch, and raise the bar he has to clear. In that way, Anderson is aiming at a moving target sitting behind Freeland and Marquez.
Jon Gray
Position: RHSP
2019 Age: 27
Career bWAR with Rockies: 7.0
Jon Gray was born and raised in Oklahoma. A 2010 graduate of Chandler High School, Gray was a 13th round draft pick of the Royals.
Instead of signing a professional contract, Gray went the Junior College route, and enrolled at East Oklahoma State College. Gray continued to show excellent stuff, prompting the Yankees to take him in the 10th round of the 2011 draft. Gray again opted to stay in school rather than accept the Yankees offer of $500,000. Instead he transferred to the University of Oklahoma for his sophomore season.
Gray made an immediate impact in the Sooners rotation as a dominant power pitcher. His junior year was even better. Gray was arguably the most dominant college pitcher in the nation during the 2013 campaign. Gray’s stuff spiked– he was regularly touching triple-digits, with several reports that he hit as high as 102 for Oklahoma. A devastating slider, and improved control, made him nearly unhittable in college.
Desperate to develop an effective big league starting rotation, the Rockies took Gray with the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. After turning down $500,000 two years earlier, Gray received a Rockies-record $4.8 million signing bonus. After years of substandard big league pitching, the Rockies hoped that Gray’s elite power arsenal would finally be the antidote to pitching in Coors Field.
Gray spent the 2014 season doing solid work in his own back yard at Double-A Tulsa. He was sent to Triple-A Albuquerque to begin 2015. The Pacific Coast League is home to some of the most favorable offensive environments in baseball, and Gray would need the preparation for life in Colorado. After a respectable run in Triple-A, the Rockies gave Gray his first taste of the big leagues with a nine-game trial beginning in August. He was a little BABIP unlucky, but piled up 40 strikeouts in 40.2 innings to show he was ready for the big time.
In 2016, Gray worked 168 innings at 105 ERA+ to produce 2.0 bWAR. He was just 24 years old.
Gray took a step forward in 2017. Although he dealt with nagging injuries early in the year, Gray hit his stride late in the season. In 20 starts, Gray went 110.1 innings at 138 ERA+. He produced 3.1 bWAR in only about two-thirds of a season. Gray showed that if he could limit walks, he was capable of working at ace-caliber levels for the Rockies. His excellent late-season stretch helped the Rockies reach the NL Wildcard Game.
Although it appeared 2017 might be a sign of things to come for Gray, he found the going much tougher in 2018. Gray was hit harder than at any point since his 2015 debut. While he still put up strikeout and walk numbers inline with his overall career, he yielded 27 homers after allowing just 28 in the previous two years combined. He contributed 1.7 bWAR towards the Rockies second straight Wild Card team.
Outlook
Gray has now worked 491.1 innings in the big leagues with a career 104 ERA+. With three years of team control remaining, Gray is lumped into a similar category with Tyler Anderson in terms of his chances to make the All-Time Rockies Team. You can pretty easily argue that Gray actually has a better chance. He is younger, has better pure stuff, and a better track record of health.
Gray’s issues stem from his own inconsistency. An extended stretch along the lines of what we saw in 2017 would allow him to lay claim to being one of the best pitchers in franchise history. Unfortunately, 2018 is the most recent data we have. While I fully expect that Gray has better seasons than 2018 ahead of him, its unclear how often they will come, or whether they will be in Colorado, or elsewhere in his 30s.
Wrapping Up
Even with four members of the Rockies 2018 rotation on the Watch List, there are still a few other interesting names to track. Antonio Senzatela will be just 24 in 2019 and has already shown that he too can be an above-average big league arm. Reliever Scott Oberg was absurdly good in 2018, but as he enters his age 29 season, it’s unclear if he can repeat it. Outfielder David Dahl has tremendous natural offensive talent and will be just 25 next year. If he can stay healthy, it’s not hard to imagine him putting up some huge numbers in Coors Field.
In the minors, it’s harder to find more than a couple of players that fit the mold of potential franchise greats at this point. Former first-rounder Brendan Rodgers has long been a top prospect as a middle-infielder with big offensive potential. Rodgers has a solid season at Double-A under his belt. With Franchise Phenom D.J. LeMahieu heading for free agency, it’s entirely possible the Rockies will clear out second base to give Rodgers his shot. Rodgers has the type of offensive upside that could lead to a nice career in Colorado.
2016 first-rounder Riley Pint has the same type of unbelievable stuff as Jon Gray. At the same time, he has struggled to stay healthy and lacks Gray’s command. An eventual move to the bullpen could be in everyone’s best interests.