Joe Mauer: Hall of Famer?

Minnesota Twins all-time great Joe Mauer announced his retirement on Friday.  To commemorate the end of his great career, we take a look back at one of the greatest players in Twins franchise history.  We will also explore where Mauer’s legacy leaves him in the history of our great game.

Background

Joe Mauer was born and raised in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota.  A legendary high school athlete for Cretin-Derham Hall High School in St. Paul, Mauer was highly accomplished in multiple sports.  As a quarterback, Mauer was committed to play for Florida State.  For all of his gridiron prowess, Mauer’s destiny was on the diamond.

With the first pick in the 2001 MLB draft, the Minnesota Twins were faced with a dilemma.  The consensus top prospect in the draft was Southern California rigth-hander Mark Prior.  A dominant arm assured to arrive quickly in the majors, Prior was at the top of virtually every evaluator’s list that spring.  When the Twins balked at Prior’s contract demands, they turned to the elite prep catcher in their own backyard instead.

Drafted into a scenario fraught with potential downside, Mauer had much to prove.  The reports on his tools included an elite swing, athleticism and plus, or better, tools on the defensive side.  Still, the pick felt to many observers like little more than a penny-pinching maneuver from the Twins.  Prior’s quick ascent to the big leagues less than a year after being drafted didn’t do Mauer, or the Twins, any favors either.

As Prior quickly became a household name, Mauer methodically worked his way through the minors.  While Prior finished third in the Cy Young race in 2003, Mauer finished his age-20 season at Double-A New Britain.

Getting Settled In

Despite the fact that Mauer was Baseball America’s top prospect heading into the 2004 season, it was unclear whether he would ever live up to his draft position, or live down the reputation of being selected before Prior.  Mauer made his debut in 2004, but struggled with injuries and played just 35 games at the big league level.

In 2005, Mauer was healthy and immediately proved himself to be an above-average big league catcher.  He hit .294/.372/.411, 107 OPS+ and produced 2.8 bWAR.  By this point, it was clear that even if the Twins had not taken the best player in the draft, Mauer would be a fixture in Minnesota for years to come.

Breakout and Prime

2006 was Joe Mauer’s coming-out party.  Mauer hit .347/.429/.507, 144 OPS+ and won the American League batting title.  At 5.8 bWAR, Mauer was the most valuable catcher in baseball.  He was selected to the All Star team for the first time, and won his first Silver Slugger.  

Mauer’s breakout was well timed with those of a number of his teammates.  First baseman Justin Morneau won the MVP in 2006.   Left-hander Johan Santana won his second Cy Young Award.  22-year-old lefty Francisco Liriano came out of nowhere to join the rotation.  He posted an even better ERA+ than Santana.  Closer Joe Nathan was arguably the best reliever in the game. 

The Twins surged to 96 wins and the American League Central championship before being swept in the ALDS by the Oakland Athletics.  Despite the heartbreaking end to an excellent season, the five best players on the 2006 Twins were under 30 and returning.  The future was bright in Minnesota with Mauer leading the way.

In a regrettable twist of fate, 2006 was also the last time Mark Prior pitched in the Major Leagues.  A series of injuries held him to just 43.2 innings that season, and kept him from ever returning to a big league mound.  Prior was a brilliant supernova whose 16.6 career bWAR would still rank fourth best in his draft class despite not pitching after age 25.  The top pick, Joe Mauer, would end up being the top player in the 2001 draft after all.

Mauer came back to earth a little in 2007.  Although his underlying skills were well intact, his BABIP dropped 45 points and his overall line suffered.  He finished the year at 118 OPS+ with 3.9 bWAR.  Morneau and Santana regressed as well.  Liriano missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was never quite the same again.  The Twins finished 79-83.

Baseball’s Best Backstop

With Santana headed towards a mega-contract in free agency, Minnesota dealt him to the Mets in February, 2008.  Joe Mauer was now, officially, the face of his hometown franchise.  Mauer responded with a stretch that included some of the best baseball of his career.

Still just 25 years old, Mauer won his second batting title in 2008.  He hit .328/.413/.451, 134 OPS+ and produced 5.6 bWAR. He made his second All Star team, won his second Silver Slugger, and his first Gold Glove.  Still the preeminent catcher in the game, Mauer finished fourth in the MVP race.  The Twins rebounded to win 88 games, but lost a Game 163 tiebreaker to the White Sox to narrowly miss the playoffs.

2009 MVP

Mauer’s career-year came the following season.  In 2009, Mauer led the American League in each of the triple-slash categories with a .365/.444/.587 line.  His 171 OPS+ was also tops in the league.  For the second straight year, Mauer was an All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover.  He received all but one first-place vote for MVP. 

The Twins won 87 games, which was enough to win the Central this time around.  Unfortunately, they were swept in the ALDS for the second time in four seasons, this time by the New York Yankees.  

Back to the Playoffs

The 2010 Minnesota Twins repeated as AL Central champions, this time winning 94 games.  Once again, Mauer was the best player on a division champion.  He hit .327/.402/.469, good for 140 OPS+ and 5.9 bWAR.  For the third straight season, Mauer was an All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover. 

Still an OBP machine, Mauer was the 10th best hitter in the American League in 2010.  Notably, his power output declined precipitously.  The Twins had moved into their new home ballpark at Target Field, and Mauer was impacted more than any other player.  After hitting 28 homers during his MVP campaign in 2009, he hit just nine in 2010.  

For the second straight season, the Twins met the Yankees in the ALDS.  For the second straight season, they were dispatched in three games.

A Dark Age in Minnesota

2011 marked the beginning of a brutal stretch for the Twins.  Coming off back-to-back division championships, there was reason for optimism heading into the season, but it quickly faded.  The team cratered in every facet of the game and finished with the worst record in the American League.  

For his part, Mauer played just 82 games in 2011.  Knee and shoulder injuries combined with a virus conspired to leave Mauer battling to get healthy all season.  He was never quite right and produced just 102 OPS+.

Healthy again in 2012, Mauer proved he was still a star.  He produced 140 OPS+ on the strength of a league-leading .416 OBP.  He was selected to the All Star team for the fifth time.  A healthy Mauer was not enough to save a brutal starting rotation, and the Twins were again the worst team in the American League.

2013 was more of the same for Mauer and the Twins.  The 30-year-old backstop produced 142 OPS+, making him the eighth best hitter in the A.L.  Mauer was once again an All Star and Silver Slugger.  The Twins continued to struggle, winning just 66 games.  

Decline Phase

Unbeknownst to the baseball world, Joe Mauer’s best days were behind him by the end of 2013.  A concussion suffered during the 2013 season would mark the beginning of a difficult final five seasons for the franchise icon.

To ease the burden, and limit the physical risk to their superstar, the Twins moved Mauer to first base full-time in 2014.  The move largely had the desired effect on his availability.  Mauer averaged 136 games over his final five seasons after averaging just 123 over his previous five.  He continued to battle injuries, but was mostly available.

It quickly became clear that Mauer’s was not the same player, however.  The injuries, particularly the aftereffects of his concussions, took their toll.  A career 135 OPS+ hitter through 2013, Mauer averaged just 105 OPS+ from 2014-2018.  His contact and on-base skills, once elite, were now merely above-average.  His power, initially dampened by the move to Target Field, all but evaporated.

The Twins averaged just 75 wins per season during this stretch.  Outside of a surprise 85-win season that ended in a wild card game loss to the Yankees in 2017, Minnesota was seldom relevant during Mauer’s final years.

Joe Mauer announced his retirement in November, 2018 at 35 years old.  He played his entire career for his hometown Twins.

Legacy

Through 2013, Mauer boasted a career line of .323/.405/.468, 135 OPS+, and averaged 6.2 bWAR per 650 plate appearances.  He had 1414 hits, 105 homers, 634 RBI, and more walks than strikeouts for his career.  Joe Mauer was a surefire Hall of Famer through his age-30 season.

Then the injuries set in.  Every aspect of Mauer’s game was negatively impacted by the physical beating he took during his 20s.  It is now clear that the concussions, especially, chipped away at one of the greatest talents of his generation.

Mauer’s Hall of Fame candidacy likely rests solely on the extent to which the voters consider him a catcher.  With 921 career appearances behind the plate, Mauer played there more than anywhere else.  He also made 913 appearances as a first baseman or designated hitter.  

Considered solely as a catcher, Mauer should be viewed as a slam dunk.  Notably, JAWS ranks him as the 7th best catcher in history and above the average for Hall of Famers at the position.  

If voters even partially penalize him for his time spent at first base, dramatic decline, or overall short career, his candidacy could be in jeopardy.  When compared with first basemen, Mauer falls well short of the overall standard required for enshrinement.  While it would be unfair to consider him primarily a first baseman, it’s not clear whether the voters will consider him mostly a catcher.

For my money, Joe Mauer is a Hall of Famer.  He was the best catcher in baseball for nearly a decade.  While it would have been better for baseball to see him have a more just decline phase, it wasn’t in the cards.  Given the choice, I like peak level heroics in my Hall of Famers, even if they don’t necessarily age all that well. 

Rather than focus on what didn’t go right, I prefer to remember Joe Mauer as one of the greatest catchers of my lifetime.

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