Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.
22. Alfonso Soriano
JAWS: 27.8 (53.6 Average HOF LF)
A native of baseball hotbed San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, Alfonso Soriano’s route to the big leagues was unconventional. Rather than sign with a big league club during his teenage years like most of his countrymen, Soriano instead began his professional career with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of the Japanese Central League.
A salary dispute led Soriano to challenge his contract status in Japan. Major League Baseball declared Soriano a free agent and he signed with the Yankees in September, 1998.
Soriano’s explosive athleticism immediately created high hopes in New York. His unique blend of power and speed was truly exciting. Soriano was quickly recognized as a top prospect. Baseball America ranked him 39th, or better, every year from 1999-2001.
The Yankee Years
Soriano became the Yankees every day second baseman in 2001. Although he was a below average hitter, and replacement level player overall, it was clear he had serious potential.
Soriano broke out in 2002. He was selected to the All Star team and led the A.L. in runs (128), hits (209), and stolen bases (41) while also clubbing 51 doubles, 39 homers, and 102 RBI. He finished third in the MVP race and won the Silver Slugger.
Soriano made the All Star team, and received MVP votes, again in 2003. The Yankees won 101 games en route to their ninth straight playoff appearance. After losing to the Marlins in the World Series, the New York front office was rabid with urgency to get back to the top of the mountain.
In the winter of 2004, the Texas Rangers did the unthinkable and made the reigning MVP, Alex Rodriguez, available in trade talks. A frenzied bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox ensued. In the end, it was New York’s willingness to include Soriano, himself a budding All Star talent, that sealed the deal for the Yankees.
Texas
In Texas, Soriano joined a talented young core of position players. While he was an All Star and Silver Slugger again in 2004-2005, his offensive production fell short of the level he had established the previous two seasons with the Yankees. At the same time, his defensive work at the keystone was increasingly scrutinized. As a team, the Rangers pitching was largely miserable, and they finished third both years.
2006 was Soriano’s final season before free agency. With the looming likelihood that he would test the open market, Texas opted to deal Soriano to the Nationals for a package of young players headlined by Brad Wilkerson.
Washington
In Washington, Soriano joined a club that had its own All Star second baseman, Jose Vidro. The Nationals moved Soriano to left field in deference to Vidro. Playing for a contract on a last place team, Soriano flourished. His 135 OPS+ was a career high. He was again an All Star and Silver Slugger while finishing sixth in the MVP race.
Coming off a career year, Soriano was in prime position to enter free agency. In November, 2006 he landed an 8-year, $136 million contract with the Cubs. In Chicago, Soriano was expected to the center piece of a rebuilding Cubs club that had immediate playoff aspirations.
136 Million Dollar Man
Expectations were high for Soriano, and the Cubs, entering 2007. Soriano largely delivered on those lofty expectations in the early years of his deal. The Cubs won back-to-back division titles in 2007-2008. Soriano averaged .291/.340/.547, 121 OPS+, and 3.1 bWAR while making the All Star team both years.
Soriano’s remaining time in Chicago was less pleasant. Although he was often an above-average hitter (107 OPS+ from 2009-2013), his best days were clearly behind him. While he was tolerable in the outfield, he was never quite good. His once dynamic power speed combo was reduced to a power-only profile. The power he did produce was the result of a free-swinging approach that included a below-average OBP, and an inconvenient number of strikeouts.
The Cubs failed to make the playoffs again during Soriano’s tenure. Searching for an offensive boost of their own in 2013, a struggling Yankees club traded for Soriano in July. Although he finished 2013 on a high note, Soriano struggled mightily in 2014. He was released that July and never played in the big leagues again.
Hall of Fame?
Alfonso Soriano was one of the most dynamic, and exciting players of the 2000s. From 2001-2008, he averaged .283/.330/.520, 117 OPS+, 38 doubles, 33 homers, 31 stolen bases, and 3.7 bWAR. He was an All Star every year from 2002-2008, and won four Silver Sluggers.
His eight-year peak certainly created the foundation for a potentially compelling Hall of Fame case. Unfortunately, his decline phase was not particularly graceful. While he remained a productive hitter, he was stylistically frustrating to watch. Because of the expectations associated with his contract, I suspect people remember too much of this phase of his career, and not enough of his prime.
Memories aside, the numbers paint a clear picture. Soriano was one of the better players of his decade, but well shy of Cooperstown standards.
21. Brian Roberts
JAWS: 29.2 (56.9 Average HOF 2B)
Brian Roberts was drafted 50th overall by the Baltimore Orioles out of the University of South Carolina in 1999. A polished switch-hitter and infielder with good speed, Roberts raced through the Baltimore system and made his big league debut just two years later.
Although he initially controlled the strike zone and made consistent contact, Roberts lacked meaningful power. He struggled to adjust to the big leagues, and produced just 68 OPS+ through his first 441 plate appearances in 2001-2002.
His offensive production improved to passable in 2003. From 2003-2004, Roberts averaged 89 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR while settling in as Baltimore’s every day second baseman. He led the A.L. with 50 doubles in 2004.
Breakout
2005 was a career year for Roberts. At age 27, he was one of the best hitters in the A.L. Roberts produced .314/.387/.514, 139 OPS+, and 7.3 bWAR. He made the All Star team for the first time. 2005 was also the only season in which Roberts received MVP votes.
Although he never had another year as good as 2005, Roberts remained a sneaky star level player for the rest of the decade. From 2005-2010, Roberts averaged .292/.368/.447, 114 OPS+, 40 doubles, 32 stolen bases, and 4.0 bWAR.
In 2007 he made his second All Star team, and led the league with 50 stolen bases. In 2009, he paced the circuit in doubles for the second time with 56.
Unfortunately, the best of his career was largely lost on the broader baseball community. From 2001-2011, Baltimore never won more than 78 games. While Roberts was often excellent, his teams were decidedly awful.
Decline
Roberts began a steep decline phase in 2011. Injuries quickly derailed his career. He played in just 39 games that season. In his final three seasons with the Orioles, Roberts averaged just 44 games per year and was largely ineffective when he did play. Baltimore did win the Wild Card in 2012, but Roberts was sidelined for the ALDS against the Yankees.
Roberts was a free agent for the first time in his career heading into 2014. He signed with the Yankees. Roberts was given first crack at the second base job among a group of fellow aging former stars. While he was respectable, the team struggled to keep its head above water. Roberts was released in August– just a matter of a few weeks after Alfonso Soriano as it turned out. He never played in the big leagues again.
Hall of Fame?
Brian Roberts was quietly excellent for most of a decade with the Orioles. He was largely underappreciated at the time– a product of playing on some of the worst Orioles teams ever.
By JAWS he is the 58th best second baseman in history. An excellent career to be sure, but well shy of Hall of Fame standards.
Like Soriano, Roberts is probably going to fall off the ballot after his first year. Both players had star caliber seasons. Neither player sustained that level of play long enough to build a Hall of Fame resume.