Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.
25. Billy Wagner
JAWS: 23.7 (32.5 Average HOF RP)
Billy Wagner was drafted 12th overall by the Houston Astros out of Ferrum College in Virginia in 1993. Although he was largely deployed as a starter on his climb through the Astros system, Wagner’s future was in the bullpen. After a single hitter cameo in the big leagues in 1995, Wagner was in the big leagues for good by June of 1996.
Listed at 5-10, 180 pounds, the undersized lefty pumped upper 90s fastballs past hitters while seldom needing a second pitch. For 16 seasons, Billy Wagner was one of the top relief pitchers in the game.
In nine seasons with the Astros, Wagner was utterly dominant. In 464 games, he finished with a 171 ERA+. He is Houston’s all-time leader in saves (225), WHIP (1.04), K/9 (12.4), and H/9 (5.9). Wagner was a three-time All Star in Houston. In 1999 he was Rolaids Relief Man, and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He received MVP votes in 1999 and 2003.
Although the Astros made the playoffs four times with Wagner as their closer, the club was never able to advance past the NLDS.
Heading Back East
Following the 2003 season, with Wagner becoming more expensive, the Astros traded him to the Phillies. Wagner was better still in Philadelphia. In 2004-2005, Wagner posted a 240 ERA+. He was an All Star in 2005.
Wagner became a free agent after the 2005 season. He signed a four-year contract with the Mets. Wagner remained dominant during his early years in New York. He finished with a 183 ERA+ mark over 183 games for the Mets. He was twice an All Star, and finished sixth in the 2006 Cy Young voting.
The Mets made the post season once during Wagner’s tenure. In 2006, Wagner recorded two saves in the Mets sweep of the Dodgers in the NLDS. The Mets lost a heartbreaking seven-game NLCS to the eventual world champion Cardinals.
Wagner’s age-37 season was marred by injuries. He made just two appearances for the Mets in 2009 before he was dealt to the Red Sox in August.
He closed out his career with a dominant 2010 campaign with the Braves. Wagner made the All Star team for the seventh time in his career, and helped the Braves to a Wild Card berth.
Hall of Fame?
Billy Wagner is, without question, one of the best relievers in history. From 1996-2008, Wagner’s consistent dominance of the late innings in the National League was a given.
Wagner is now in his fifth season on the ballot. He is the top remaining eligible relief pitcher by JAWS. Unfortunately, he faces a steep uphill climb after earning just 16.7% of the vote in 2019.
The pure reliever is still a relatively new problem for voters to grapple with. The candidacies of Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman both resulted in quick enshrinement. It is clear that Wagner is not viewed on par with those late-inning legends. Still, Wagner is sixth all-time in saves and seventh among relievers in Win Probability Added.
The likelihood is that Wagner continues to gain votes in the coming years, but ultimately falls short of election by the BBWAA. Lee Smith‘s selection by the Veteran’s Committee in 2019 may be his best-case scenario.