2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Carlos Pena

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

23. Carlos Pena

JAWS: 24.6 (54.8 Average HOF 1B)

Carlos Pena was drafted 10th overall by the Texas Rangers out of Northeastern University in Boston, MA in 1998. As a supremely talented left-handed hitter with excellent defensive chops, Pena quickly became regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball. He ranked in Baseball America’s top-100 prospects three times including top-10 rankings in 2001 and 2002.

Pena earned his first cup of coffee with the 2001 Rangers. Although he had shown excellent power and on-base skills in his minor league career, Texas elected to entrust their 1B/DH spots to a host of veteran sluggers. Following the 2001 season, Pena was traded to Oakland for a package of talented youngsters who ultimately made minimal impact in Texas.

Pena began his age-24 season as Oakland’s starting first baseman. After producing just 92 OPS+ through April and May, Pena was optioned back to Triple-A. With the team in the middle of a playoff race, the A’s used Pena as a key piece to land left-handed starter Ted Lilly in a three-team trade with the Yankees and Tigers.

Detroit

The rebuilding Tigers gave Pena a better opportunity to establish himself. Pena was an above-average hitter immediately upon his arrival in Detroit. Although he produced a cumulative OPS+ of 112 over parts of four seasons in Detroit, Pena was often viewed as a disappointment.

A miserable start to the 2005 season saw Pena sent back to Triple-A for half of his age-27 season. Although he rebounded in the second half, it was clear that Pena’s grasp on a job in Detroit was tenuous.

By 2006 the Tigers had built a roster that was prepared to contend for the post season. In a surprise move, the Tigers released Pena at the end of spring training. The Tigers moved forward with Chris Shelton and Marcus Thames as their primary 1B/DH options. The club won 95 games, a Wild Card berth, and ultimately the A.L. pennant. Pena was cast into the baseball wilderness.

The End?

Carlos Pena remained unemployed for three weeks following his release from Detroit. A month before his 28th birthday, Pena signed with the Yankees in April, 2006. Pena performed respectably at Triple-A Columbus until he was released in August. He latched onto the Boston Red Sox shortly thereafter and made a brief return to the big leagues late in the season.

Pena became a free agent after the 2006 season. In January 2007, he signed with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Tampa

The opportunity to reestablish his career in Tampa would transform Carlos Pena’s future. Entering his age-29 season, Pena was a former top prospect who appeared to be a bust. A career 111 OPS+ hitter who had produced just 5.5 bWAR over six years with four different clubs, Pena seemed every bit as likely to be out of the game in another year as he was to blow up into an MVP candidate.

2007 would be Carlos Pena’s career year. He hit .282/.411/.627, 172 OPS+ while setting career highs in homers (46), RBI (121), walks (103), and bWAR (7.2). Pena received MVP votes for the first time and won the Silver Slugger.

While he would never again match the heights of 2007, Pena remained productive in Tampa. From 2008-2010, he averaged .224/.353/.479, 122 OPS+, and 3.4 bWAR. He received MVP votes again in 2008 and also won the Gold Glove. In 2009 he made his only All Star team, and led the A.L. with 39 homers.

Carlos Pena was a key piece to some of the best teams in Tampa’s short history. His transformation from disappointing former top prospect to All Star mirrored the evolution of the entire organization. Tampa’s first winning season in its history came in 2008 (year 11). The club shocked the baseball world by winning 97 games, the A.L. East title, and the American League pennant. Carlos Pena was their best player. They won the division again in 2010 as well.

Act Three

A free agent after 2010, Pena left Tampa for one year with the Cubs. Although he essentially matched his average production from the previous three seasons, Pena was entering the year-to-year phase of his career.

He returned to Tampa for a disappointing reunion in 2012. Houston gave him a shot in 2013, but the magic had run out. He returned to Texas for a brief stint in 2014 before hanging them up for good.

Hall of Fame?

There are a number of similarities between Carlos Pena’s career, and that of ballot-mate Paul Konerko. Both players were first round picks who had to bounce around before reaching their potential with other clubs. Each was a former top prospect who was temporarily viewed as a disappointment before having a memorable career. All the way down to their identical JAWS scores, and ultimate destiny to fall short of Cooperstown, Konerko and Pena were very much in the same class.

Like Konerko, Carlos Pena will be remembered here as a Franchise Phenom as well. Pena will feature on the all-time Tampa Rays team upon its release.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Paul Konerko

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

24. Paul Konerko

JAWS: 24.6 (54.8 Average HOF 1B)

Paul Konerko was drafted 13th overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of Chaparral HS in Scottsdale, AZ in 1994. Although he was drafted as a catcher, Konerko shifted from behind the plate while still in the minors. He dabbled at third base, and in left field, but settled at first. Konerko’s offensive production carried him to Baseball America Top-100 prospect status each year from 1995-1998 with a peak rank of #2 before his final season in the minors.

The Dodgers gave Konerko brief tastes of the big leagues in 1997 and 1998. Despite his minor league success, he failed to impress. With veteran first baseman Eric Karros entrenched, and his own viability at other positions very much in question, Konerko became expendable. In July, 1998 the Dodgers traded Konerko to the Reds for All Star closer Jeff Shaw and promising left-hander Dennys Reyes.

The 22-year-old Konerko similarly failed to impress during his brief stint with Cincinnati. With Sean Casey, himself 23, in the process of establishing his career with the Reds, Konerko was again blocked. In November, 1998, the Reds dealt Konerko to the White Sox for another future All Star, and Franchise Phenom (for Seattle), center fielder Mike Cameron.

Home on the South Side

The White Sox immediately installed Konerko in their every day lineup beginning in 1999. Given the opportunity to settle into the big leagues, Konerko quickly established himself as an above-average hitter. From 1999-2002, Konerko averaged .294/.356/.499, 118 OPS+, 26 homers, and 95 RBI. He was an integral part of some ferocious White Sox lineups including the 2000 A.L. Central champions.

After making his first All Star team in 2002, Konerko struggled mightily in 2003. As the Sox battled for a playoff spot, Konerko limped to a miserable 83 OPS+ and -0.6 bWAR. The Sox finished four games behind the Twins. Fans and media alike were highly critical of their star first baseman.

Konerko rebounded in a big way in 2004. He set career highs with 41 homers and 117 RBI. At age 28, Konerko received MVP votes for the first time in his career. The toughness and resiliency he showed in bouncing back from his failed 2003 season endeared him to White Sox fans as never before.

2005

Coming off a huge season in 2004, Konerko was poised to lead the 2005 White Sox on one of the most improbable championship runs in history. Konerko produced a near carbon copy of 2004 with another 40 homer, 100 RBI campaign. The Sox won 99 games and the A.L. Central title. Konerko made his second All Star team and finished sixth in the MVP race.

“Paulie” was an absolute force during the 2005 post season. He clubbed two homers and drove in four runs in Chicago’s sweep of the Red Sox in the ALDS. His tie-breaking two run shot in sixth inning of Game 3 was an exclamation point on a dominant series for the Sox.

Konerko added two more homers and seven RBI in the ALCS as the Sox defeated the Angels in five games. He was named the series MVP.

Chicago held the home field advantage in the World Series against the Houston Astros. The Sox took the opener, but the Astros threatened to tie the series in Game 2. With Houston leading 4-2 with two outs in the seventh, Konerko stepped to the plate with the bases loaded.

The Sox hung on to win Game 2. They completed the sweep in Houston to win the franchise’s first world series championship since 1917. Paul Konerko was an instrumental figure in ending the 87-year drought between White Sox championships– the second-longest such drought in baseball history.

Captain

Following the glory of 2005, the White Sox named Konerko the fourth Team Captain in franchise history. His first-class work ethic and integrity would continue to cement his legacy as one of the most beloved players in White Sox history.

From 2006-2012, Konerko remained one of the most consistently productive hitters in baseball. He averaged .287/.369/.510, 129 OPS+, 30 homers, and 92 RBI. Konerko made four more All Star teams, and received MVP votes three times during this stretch.

The Sox made the playoffs just once more during Konerko’s tenure as A.L. Central champions in 2008.

Despite declining production, Konerko hung around in a leadership capacity in 2013-2014 before retiring after 16 seasons with the White Sox.

Hall of Fame?

Paul Konerko is one of the greatest, and most popular players in White Sox history. He is the starting first baseman and fifth place hitter on our all-time White Sox team here at Franchise Phenoms. His place in White Sox lore is firmly established.

Unfortunately for Konerko and White Sox fans alike, it appears that 2020 will be his lone year on the ballot. He falls well below the established standards for Hall of Fame first basemen.

Even if Konerko never earns enshrinement in Cooperstown, there is little doubt that he will go down in history as one of the all-time great White Sox. For Chicago fans who lived through the lean years between championships, and for those who witnessed the improbable euphoria of 2005, Paul Konerko’s memory will endure.

All-Time White Sox Team

Every week at Franchise Phenoms, I plan to release the all-time 25 man roster for a new franchise.

In addition to publishing the 25-man roster, there will be other content related to the history of the franchise’s best players.

I chose to begin with the Chicago White Sox.  I have lived most of my life in Northwest Indiana, a short 40-minute drive from the ballpark on the South Side of Chicago.  For better or worse, I was raised a White Sox fan, and that’s where we will begin.

Franchise Overview

The White Sox were founded in 1901 as a charter member of the American League.  Only eight National League franchises have played more seasons than the White Sox.

Their three World Series championships (1906, 1917, 2005) have them tied for 10th most in history.

The White Sox are one of 13 teams to have a franchise winning percentage over .500.  Their .503 mark puts them at 11th best in history.

Despite a long history of respectability, White Sox fans have struggled as often as not.

The Sox went without a World championship from 1917-2005.  The club made just two World Series appearances in the meantime.

The 1919 club had the second best record of any team in Sox history before infamously conspiring with gamblers to throw the World Series.  This cloud hung over the franchise for decades as the Sox made just one more World Series trip in the next 85 years.

The most telling statistic in White Sox history might be the fact that the percentage of the team’s seasons in which they have made the playoffs is the lowest of any team in history at just 7.63%.

For a franchise that has frequently fielded winning teams, the Sox have rarely rewarded their fans with a chance to see baseball in October.  

Hitters

Starting LineupNamePositionB/TbWAR/ 650OPS+Years Played
1.Joe JacksonLFL/R3.61591915-20
2.Eddie Collins2BL/R6.21331915-26
3.Frank ThomasDH (1B)R/R5.31611990-2005
4.Minnie MinosoRF (LF/3B)R/R4.71331951-57, 60-61, 64, 76, 80
5.Paul Konerko1BR/R2.11201999-2014
6.Robin Ventura3B (1B)L/R4.91171989-98
7.Luke ApplingSSR/R4.81131930-50
8.Fielder JonesCFL/R4.31121901-08
9.Sherm LollarCR/R3.61061952-63
Bench
OFMagglio OrdonezRFR/R4.01271997-2004
OFHarold BainesRFL/L2.41181980-89, 96-97, 00-01
INLuis AparicioSSR/R3.6831956-62, 68-70
INNellie Fox2BL/R3.3951950-63
CRay SchalkCR/R3.1831912-28

The White Sox careers of Frank Thomas, “Shoeless” Joe Jackson, and Eddie Collins place them among the elite in this entire exercise.

A two-time A.L. MVP, and Hall of Famer, Thomas would start at first base or DH for the all-time team of every single franchise without requiring much shuffling to make it work.  Thomas is unquestionably one of the best hitters in history.

No team has three outfielders who were better hitters than Shoeless Joe was for the White Sox.  It was a tough decision as to whether or not to include Jackson in this exercise given his involvement in the 1919 Black Sox Scandal.  Considering his performance record in the games in question, and the fact that some historians dispute his guilt, I gave him the benefit of the doubt where others throughout history have not.

Collins is part of a rare breed of player who would be a lock to start for two different franchises if I permitted players to appear for more than one team.  He was actually a better player on a rate basis with the Athletics, but accrued more playing time and total value for the White Sox.

For a team with such a long history, it’s not surprising to find that most of the starters for the Sox are approximately average at worst when compared to their counterparts on other teams.

At shortstop, Luke Appling is a Hall of Famer who spent his entire career with the franchise.  His contact/on-base skills and above-average defense over a 20-year career put him in rarefied air among South Side greats.  He was a seven-time All Star who twice finished second in the MVP voting.

Third baseman Robin Ventura was an extremely underrated player for his 10 seasons with the Sox.  He won six Gold Gloves while providing consistently above-average offensive production.

As a solid hitter who provided no value defensively, or on the bases, Paul Konerko is among the 5-10 weakest starting franchise first baseman.  Konerko became the face of the White Sox for the better part of a decade following the 2005 World Series.  He was named the team’s captain, and was beloved by the organization’s fans.  On a value basis, there is a case for his teammate, Magglio Ordonez to be inserted into the starting lineup.  Given that Konerko is on the right side of the team’s improbable 2005 championship run, he gets the nod.  Konerko was a six-time All Star.

Fielder Jones is the only member of the all-time Sox roster who played for the team during it’s inaugural season in 1901.  Jones began his career with the Brooklyn Bridegrooms in the National League before posting eight seasons as an above-average hitter and solid outfielder for the Sox.

Cuban baseball icon Minnie Minoso gets the nod in right field.  Minoso was an elite offensive player who was a seven-time All Star and two-time Gold Glover during his 12 seasons with the Sox.  Minoso finished fourth in the MVP voting four different times with the Sox.  He was famously brought back for cameo appearances with the club in 1976 and 1980 making him one of only two players to appear in the big leagues during five different decades.

Catcher Sherm Lollar played 12 years on the South Side.  He was a six-time All Star, and won three Gold Gloves while playing for the Sox.  He gets the starting nod over Hall of Famer Ray Schalk on the strength of a significantly better offensive career.

Bench

The Sox bench boasts three Hall of Famers who were excellent all around players over long careers with the club in Ray Schalk (C), Nellie Fox (2B), and Luis Aparicio (SS).

Schalk received MVP votes four different times in his 17 years with the Sox.

Fox was a 12-time All Star who led the league in hits four times.  He added three Gold Gloves and is well-regarded for his defense.  In 1959, as the best player on the American League Champion “Go-Go” White Sox, Fox was also the AL MVP.

Aparicio played 10 of his 18 seasons with the White Sox.  He was a six-time All Star and seven-time Gold Glover in Chicago.  He led the league in stolen bases for nine straight seasons to begin his career, seven of which were with the Sox.  In 1959, he finished second to his double play partner Fox in the MVP race.

Organizational favorite Harold Baines was the first overall draft pick in 1977.  He was a solid hitter, and four-time All Star in 14 seasons with the Sox.  Some of his best offensive seasons were spent as a designated hitter in exile with other American League teams in the 1990s.

Venezuelan right fielder Magglio Ordonez rounds out the offense.  Ordonez was a four-time All Star in eight seasons with the Sox.  Terrible timing of a nasty knee injury in 2004 hastened his departure via free agency to Detroit the following winter.  Maggs remained a productive hitter with Detroit including a second place MVP finish in 2007.

Pitchers

Starting RotationNameB/TERA+Years Played
1.Ed WalshR/R1471904-16
2.Billy PierceL/L1231949-61
3.Mark BuehrleL/L1202000-11
4.Red FaberS/R1191914-33
5.Chris SaleL/L1352010-16
Bullpen
LRTed LyonsS/R1181923-46
RPBobby ThigpenR/R1261986-93
RPBobby JenksR/R1362005-10
RPRoberto HernandezR/R1541991-97
SUKeith FoulkeR/R1661997-2002
CLHoyt WilhelmR/R1711963-68

The White Sox boast the sixth best starting pitching rotation of any all-time team by average ERA+.  

Hall of Famer Ed Walsh spent 13 seasons with the Sox during which time he was, at times, arguably the best pitcher in baseball.  He accumulated nearly all of his career value in Chicago.  His 1.82 career ERA and 2.02 FIP are the best in baseball history. 

Billy Pierce spent 13 seasons on the South Side.  He was a seven-time All Star.  He led the league in Wins, Strikeouts, and ERA at different times during his White Sox tenure.

Mark Buehrle is perhaps one of the more improbable all-time greats in history.  A soft-tossing left-hander who first signed as a 38th round pick, Buehrle was a four-time All Star in 12 seasons for the Sox.  He threw both a perfect game and a no-hitter with the Sox.  He is one of just seven players to accomplish that feat in history.

Hall of Famer Red Faber pitched his entire 20-year career for the Sox.  He led the league in ERA and Complete Games in back to back seasons (1921-22).

The most controversial selection to the White Sox pitching staff is probably Chris Sale.  Sale pitched just seven seasons and 1110 innings with the Sox before being traded to Boston after the 2016 season.  Sale was a five-time All Star with the White Sox, finishing sixth or better in the Cy Young voting in each of those seasons.  He led the league in Strikeouts and ERA+ once each along the way.  A quick Twitter Poll of my followers indicated most fans believe he had done enough to qualify for the list.

Bullpen

The White Sox have a long history of solid relief pitching as well.  The average ERA+ of their relievers is third best of any all-time team.

As is my custom, most teams stash another elite starting pitcher in their bullpen.  Hall of Famer Ted Lyons was bumped from the rotation to include Sale, but his 21-year White Sox career lands him in the pen.  Lyons led the league in Wins and Innings twice each, and ERA once, during his career.  He did make 110 career relief appearances.

Knuckleballer Hoyt Wilhelm gets the nod at closer.  Wilhelm pitched for nine different teams in his career, but threw more innings for the Sox than any other.  An old-school fireman who averaged nearly two innings per appearance for the Sox, Wilhelm was dominant during his six seasons on the South Side.

Like Wilhelm, change up specialist Keith Foulke spent six years with the Sox finishing 10th in the 1999 Cy Young vote.

Roberto Hernandez spent seven seasons with the Sox before bouncing around to nine other teams.  He finished sixth in the Cy Young voting and was an All Star in 1996.

Bobby Jenks burst onto the scene for the Sox in 2005 before earning the closer’s role late in the regular season.  His 100+ MPH heater helped him convert four of five save chances that October including the World Series clincher.  He made the All Star team in 2006-2007 before departing as a free agent after the 2010 season.

Bobby Thigpen spent eight seasons with the Sox.  He had a career year in 1990 making the All Star team and finishing in the top-five in both the Cy Young and MVP voting.  His 57 saves that year stood as the single season record until 2008 when Francisco Rodriguez saved 62 for the Angels.  He is Chicago’s franchise leader with 201 career saves.