Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.
We begin with the players who rank 21-25 by JAWS.
25. Freddy Garcia
JAWS: 30.9 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Freddy Garcia was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Houston Astros in 1993. In 1998, the Astros packaged him with Carlos Guillen and John Halama to acquire future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson from the Seattle Mariners. Johnson made 11 dominant starts for Houston, helping them to the NL Central championship before signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks after the season. Garcia and Guillen would each end up among the greatest players in Mariners history.
In six seasons with Seattle, Freddy Garcia went 76-50 with a 114 ERA+, accumulating 18.7 bWAR. He was a two-time All Star with the Mariners and led the American League in ERA (3.05) and innings (238.2) in 2001.
With Garcia approaching free agency, the Mariners dealt him to the Chicago White Sox in June, 2004. From 2004-2006, Garcia made 82 starts for the White Sox, remaining consistently above-average in the process. He was a key piece of the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox.
Chicago traded Garcia to the Phillies after the 2006 season. From 2007-2013, Garcia bounced around to six teams including a return engagement with the White Sox in 2009-2010. In 2011, he made 25 starts at 119 ERA+ to help the Yankees win the A.L. East. Overall, he struggled to remain both healthy and effective for much of his final seven seasons.
Hall of Fame?
Freddy Garcia is one of the best pitchers in the comparatively short history of the Seattle Mariners. He will be listed on the all-time Mariners starting rotation here on Franchise Phenoms. He also holds a special place in the hearts of White Sox fans for his role in ending their franchise’s World Series drought.
As his JAWS ratings would suggest, Freddy Garcia clearly falls below the standard for Hall of Fame starting pitchers. Garcia is probably one-and-done on the ballot. At the same time, he will be fondly remembered by the fan bases of at least two franchises, and that is what we’re all about at Franchise Phenoms.
24. Derek Lowe
JAWS: 31.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Derek Lowe was selected by the Seattle Mariners in the 8th round of the 1991 draft out of Ford High School in Dearborn, MI. Lowe made his big league debut with the Mariners in 1997. That July, he was traded with Jason Varitek to the Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb. Slocumb made minimal impact on the Mariners while Lowe and Varitek would become Franchise Phenoms for Boston.
In eight seasons with the Red Sox, Lowe would go on to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history. Lowe began his career as a versatile, mult-inning arm before becoming closer, and eventually shifting to the starting rotation for the second half of his Red Sox career. He was a two-time All Star, once as a reliever, and once as a starter. He led the league in saves in 2000, and finished third in the Cy Young voting as a starter in 2002. In 1037 innings, he posted 127 ERA+ and 19.4 bWAR.
Lowe was the winning pitcher in Game Four of the 2004 World Series, as the Red Sox finished off a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals and dispelled the Curse of the Bambino.
Following the 2004 season, Lowe signed a four-year contract to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the Dodgers, Lowe was largely the same pitcher he had been in Boston. He was a key piece of L.A.’s staring rotation, throwing strikes and racking up ground balls. He finished his Dodgers tenure with 120 ERA+ and 13.3 bWAR. Lowe helped the Dodgers to the postseason in 2006 and 2008.
In 2009, heading into his age-36 season, Lowe signed a free agent deal to join the Atlanta Braves. Although he remained durable, he was less effective during his three years in Atlanta. In 2012-2013, Lowe concluded his career by bouncing from Cleveland to the Yankees, and finally to Texas.
Hall of Fame?
Derek Lowe holds an important place in Red Sox history. His role on the 2004 World Series winners will ensure him a place in Red Sox lore.
Lowe had an excellent 11-year stretch in Boston and L.A. where he was above-average in every season but one. For all of his reliability and sustained success, he was seldom dominant. Aside from 1999-2000 out of the bullpen, and his third-place Cy Young finish as a starter in 2002, Lowe was most often not recognized among the very best pitchers of his generation.
Like Garcia, Lowe falls well short of the Hall of Fame standards for staring pitchers and figures to have a short stay on the ballot. His immortal status in Boston will remain his true legacy.
23. Kevin Youkilis
JAWS: 31.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)
Kevin Youkilis was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Cincinnati. As a minor leaguer, Youkilis was made famous beyond his prospect status when he was dubbed “The Greek god of Walks” in Moneyball.
Youkilis made his big league debut for the Red Sox in May, 2004. He played a supporting role in the team’s improbable run to its first World Series championship since 1918.
Youkilis was a slightly above-average hitter from 2004-2007. His plate discipline translated nicely, but he failed to show the home run power desired for a corner player.
In the 2007 playoffs, Youkilis was a monster. He hit .500/.576/.929 in Boston’s seven game series win over the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS. The Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the World Series to earn their second championship in four seasons.
Then the power started to show. From 2008-2011, Youk was one of the best offensive players in baseball. He averaged 142 OPS+ and 5.5 bWAR per season during that stretch. He was an All Star in three of those four seasons, and twice got MVP votes finishing third in 2008, and sixth in 2009. With Youk as a driving force, Boston made the playoffs again in both 2008 and 2009.
By 2012, the 33-year-old Youkilis was slowing down. The Red Sox traded him to the White Sox in June. He was better in Chicago, but nothing like the player he had been the previous four years. He played 28 games with the Yankees in 2013, but injuries severely limited him. Youk played 21 games in Japan in 2014, but never returned to the big leagues.
Hall of Fame?
Kevin Youkilis enjoyed a surprisingly short 10-year career in the Major Leagues. His distinctive nickname, facial hair, and batting stance all contributed to a cult following in Red Sox Nation. 96% of his career bWAR was accumulated in parts of nine seasons with the Red Sox. He was a three-time All Star, and won a Gold Glove at first base in 2007.
I will confess to being mildly startled by the realization that Youk played more career games at first base than at third. His career 123 OPS+ would look considerably better at the hot corner. Either way, a 10-year career is seldom enough to earn a place in Cooperstown.
Like Garcia and Lowe, Kevin Youkilis was a great player who will be fondly remembered for his role on championship teams, but not a Hall of Famer.
22. Omar Vizquel
JAWS: 36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)
Omar Vizquel is the first truly interesting case in this exercise. Now in his second year on the ballot, Vizquel showed nicely last winter, earning 37% of the vote. As an 11-time Gold Glover and three-time All Star, Vizquel clearly has some staying power.
Vizquel is one of the best defensive players in baseball history. What makes his candidacy interesting is that it is almost entirely dependent on defense.
In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter. He was an above-average offensive player just twice. This type of candidate is rare, and Vizquel figures to be one of the more polarizing figures on the ballot in coming years.
As a result, I am devoting an entire separate piece to asking the question: Is Omar Vizquel a Hall of Famer?
21. Placido Polanco
JAWS: 36.9 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)
Placido Polanco was born and raised in the Dominican Republic. After finishing high school in Santo Domingo, Polanco came to the United States. He attended Miami-Dade Junior College in Florida where he was drafted twice. First, in the 49th round by the White Sox in 1993, and then again in the 19th round by the Cardinals the following year.
At the tender age of 22, Polanco made his big league debut with the Cardinals during Mark McGwire’s home run chase in 1998. Never much of an offensive player in the minors, it took Polanco time to acclimate to the big leagues as well. He was a part-time player until 2001, and failed to post a single above-average offensive line in his five seasons with the Cardinals.
At the 2002 trade deadline, Polanco joined left-hander Bud Smith as the headliners in a package that landed Phillies Franchise Phenom Scott Rolen in St. Louis. Polanco elevated his offensive game in Philadelphia by gradually unlocking a little more power and patience. He became a consistently above-average hitter with the Phillies from 2002-2005.
In June, 2005 the Phillies traded Polanco to the Detroit Tigers for closer Ugueth Urbina. Polanco had the best seasons of his career in Detroit from 2005-2009. In 2007 he earned All Star, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger honors for the first time in his career at 31 years old. He won his second Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009.
Polanco returned to Philadelphia from 2010-2012. In 2011, he made his second All Star team and won his third Gold Glove, this time at third base. He finished his career with the Marlins in 2013.
Hall of Fame?
Placido Polanco played 16 seasons in the big leagues. He was most often an average player, but occasionally a star.
Never the best player on his own team, much less the league, Polanco figures to join Garcia, Lowe, Youkilis, and probably 10 others as one-and-done’s on this year’s ballot.