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2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Josh Beckett

Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

20. Josh Beckett

JAWS: 33.4 (61.5 Average HOF SP)

Josh Beckett was drafted 2nd overall by the Florida Marlins out of Spring High School in Texas in 1999. The hype around Josh Beckett, the prospect, was tremendous. As a 6’5″ flamethrower from Texas, Beckett was anointed as the heir apparent to the throne previously occupied by Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan.

Baseball America immediately ranked Beckett as the 19th best prospect in the game. Beckett was excellent in his professional debut at Low-A, and jumped to 3rd in Baseball America’s 2001 list. When he torched High-A and Double-A en route to an impressive four-game big league debut, he was recognized as the top prospect in the game heading into 2002.

Beckett made the opening day starting rotation in 2002. Just 22, Beckett was the youngest, and arguably most precocious talent among an impressive group of young players. The Marlins won just 79 games, but the experience gained across the roster would pay dividends.

2003: An Improbable Run

The 2003 Marlins would continue to be carried by a group of future Franchise Phenoms. Beckett was joined by first baseman Derrek Lee, second baseman Luis Castillo, and third baseman Mike Lowell in an impressive homegrown core. The Marlins also made a number of significant changes to their roster heading into 2003. The addition of future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez as a free agent transformed the every day lineup. Speedy leadoff man Juan Pierre was acquired from Colorado. Rookie phenom Dontrelle Willis was a revelation in the rotation.

91 wins was good enough for the Marlins to win the N.L. Wild Card in 2003. Although he missed a hanful of starts for the second straight year, by the time the calendar hit October, Josh Beckett was regarded as Florida’s ace.

Beckett was out-dueled by San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt in the opening game of the NLDS. Florida rebounded to win the next three games– including two one-run wins– to advance to the NLCS against the Cubs.

Beckett again started the series opener. This time, he was battered by a strong Cubs lineup. The Marlins offense picked up the slack. An 11th inning homer by Lowell secured the opener. The Cubs took the next three games to jump out to a seemingly insurmountable 3-1 series lead.

Game five in Florida was a rematch of game one with Beckett opposed by Carlos Zambrano. This time it was all Josh Beckett. The budding ace went the distance, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out 11. Florida won 4-0 to stay alive.

Game six in Chicago was destined to be etched into baseball lore. Down 3-0 in the 8th, the Marlins– aided by fate— broke through for eight runs to even the series.

Game seven in Chicago was a slug fest early. A three-run top of the 5th put Florida ahead 6-5. Jack McKeon turned to Beckett– on just two days– rest to preserve the lead. Beckett worked four innings, allowing just a solo homer to pinch hitter Troy O’Leary in the 7th before handing the ball to closer Ugueth Urbina to nail down the win.

2003 World Series Champions

The 2003 World Series pitted the Marlins against the undisputed powerhouse of the day, the New York Yankees. The Marlins managed a split of the first two games in New York. Beckett was excellent in game three, allowing two runs over 7.1 innings while striking out 10. Unfortunately, future Hall of Famer Mike Mussina was better, and the Yankees won 6-1 to take the series lead.

Florida won games four and five by a combined three runs to retake the series lead. The series returned to New York for a game six showdown between Beckett and one of the Yankees all-time greats, Andy Pettitte. Beckett was masterful. He went the distance, scattering just five hits and two walks while striking out nine. In hostile territory, Josh Beckett shutout the New York Yankees, and the Marlins captured the second world championship in franchise history. Josh Beckett was voted World Series MVP.

2004-2005

Following the October glory of 2003, Beckett and the Marlins remained strong, but couldn’t quite recreate the magic. The Marlins won 83 games and missed the playoffs in both 2004-2005. For his part, Beckett averaged 168 innings of 3.57 ERA/113 ERA+.

With their championship core either gone, aging, or becoming more expensive, the Marlins elected to retool after 2005. In November, they traded Beckett and Lowell to the Boston Red Sox for a package headlined by another future Marlins great, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez.

Red Sox Nation

Entering his age 26 season, Josh Beckett already had a World Series MVP to his credit. His arrival in Boston carried lofty expectations for one of baseball’s most rabid fan bases.

The adjustment to the American League did not go smoothly. Although Beckett set career highs in innings (204.2) and wins (16) for the 2006 Red Sox, his 5.01 ERA was also the worst of his career. The Red Sox finished third in the A.L. East, and missed the playoffs.

Delivering on the Promise

In 2007, Josh Beckett followed the worst season of his young career with the best. Beckett led the A.L. in wins (20) and FIP (3.08) as the ace of a Red Sox club that won 96 games, and the division crown. Beckett made his first All Star team, finished second in the Cy Young race, and received MVP votes for the only time in his career.

In the 2007 post season, Josh Beckett did exactly what he was brought to Boston to do– deliver a championship.

In the opening game of the ALDS, Beckett scattered four hits while striking out eight to shutout the Angels. Boston swept the series.

In game one of the ALCS, Beckett held Cleveland to two runs over six innings to earn the win. The Indians shocked the world by taking the next three games to put Boston on the brink of the elimination. With their season on the line, Josh Beckett delivered again. In Cleveland for game five, Beckett allowed one run while striking out 11 over eight innings to keep the Red Sox alive. When the series returned home, the Red Sox throttled the upstart Indians to punch their ticket to the fall classic for the second time in four years. Josh Beckett was the ALCS MVP.

The 2007 World Series started in Boston with Josh Beckett on the mound for the Red Sox against the Colorado Rockies. Beckett allowed one run over seven innings while striking out nine for his fourth win of the post season. The Red Sox swept the Rockies to win the 7th championship in franchise history.

Red Sox Revelry

The years following the 2007 championship were a mixed bag for Beckett and the Red Sox. From 2008-2011, Beckett averaged 177 innings, 12 wins, 3.98 ERA, 113 ERA+, and 3.3 bWAR. He sandwiched All Star seasons in 2009 and 2011 with arguably the worst season of his career in 2010. The Red Sox averaged 92+ wins, but finished with just two Wild Card berths, and zero pennants to show for it.

In 2012, the Red Sox limped through a disappointing mess of a season. The infamous Chicken and Beer Scandal of 2011 had already claimed casualties from the Boston brain trust with Francona and G.M. Theo Epstein run out of town at season’s end. Just 53-51 at the end of July, things unraveled quickly. By August 25, the team had fallen to 60-67. Beckett was unceremoniously shipped to the Dodgers along with fellow stars Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez in a massive salary dump.

Hollywood

From 2012-2014, Beckett was mostly respectable (when available) for the Dodgers. In 35 total starts, he posted 3.39 ERA/106 ERA+. The Dodgers won N.L. West titles in 2013-2014, but injuries ended Beckett’s seasons early both years and he never appeared in a playoff game for the team. Beckett retired after the 2014 season.

Hall of Fame?

Josh Beckett’s career was, at times, everything from brilliant to frustrating and ultimately, short-lived. Over the course of his stints in Florida and Boston, Beckett often seemed to be either a brilliant revelation, or an exasperating disappointment, depending on the moment.

By his late-20s, his supreme talent, and developing resume, gave Beckett more than a puncher’s chance at the Hall of Fame. Instead, Josh Beckett was out of baseball by 35.

For all of the unrealized potential, Josh Beckett will be remembered. He will be remembered as an ace on two championship teams for two different organizations. He will be remembered for what he was: one of the best post season pitchers of the 2000s. He will be remembered for what he wasn’t: a true all-time great– a Hall of Famer.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (1-2)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 3-5 by JAWS. Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Larry Walker

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

2. Roger Clemens

JAWS: 102.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roger Clemens was born in Dayton, Ohio. When he was as sophomore in high school, he moved to Sugar Land, Texas. After graduating from Spring Woods High School in Houston, Clemens attended San Jacinto Junior College before transferring to the University of Texas. After two excellent seasons at Texas, the Boston Red Sox selected him 19th overall in the 1983 draft.

As an advanced college arm, Clemens rose quickly through the Boston system. He made his big league debut in May, 1984. Clemens quickly established himself as one of the most promising young arms in the game.

By 1986, Clemens ascended to the top of the baseball world. In 33 starts, he led the league in wins (24), ERA (2.48), and WHIP (0.97). The Red Sox cruised to the A.L. East title and advanced to the World Series before losing to the Mets. He was the unanimous A.L. Cy Young winner and took 19 of 28 first-place votes for MVP to secure that honor as well.

Clemens was again dominant in 1987. In 36 starts, he finished with a 2.97 ERA and 256 strikeouts in 281.2 innings. He led the league in wins (20), complete games (18), shutouts (7), FIP (2.91), and strikeout/walk ratio (3.08). He received 21 of 28 first-place votes to win his second straight Cy Young.

In his late-20s, Clemens would solidify his legacy as one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history. From 1988-1992, Clemens posted an average line of 253 innings, 18 wins, 236 strikeouts, 2.62 ERA, 159 ERA+, 2.53 FIP, and 8.0 bWAR. He was an All Star in four of the five seasons and finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting in each of his All Star seasons.

The Red Sox won the A.L. East in both 1988 and 1990. Both times they were swept by the Oakland Athletics in the ALCS.

Clemens won his third, and final, Cy Young with the Red Sox in 1991. He led the league in ERA (2.62), innings (271.1), strikeouts (241), and ERA+ (165).

From 1993-1996, Clemens clearly slowed down a bit as he entered his 30s. He was healthy enough to average 186 innings per season, and effective enough to post a 130 ERA+ over that stretch. Although he was still one of the best pitchers in the game, he appeared to be trending the wrong direction.

When Clemens hit the open-market as a free agent after the 1996 season, both he and the team seemed ready for a change. The best Red Sox pitcher since Cy Young signed a three-year contract with the division-rival Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto

Clearly motivated by the doubters in Boston, and nationwide, Clemens responded in a big way. During his two seasons with Toronto, he was again the best pitcher in baseball. Clemens won back-to-back Cy Youngs for the second time in his career winning 41 games and posting an absurd 196 ERA+ in the process.

Even with the best pitcher on the planet, Toronto failed to make the playoffs in 1997-1998. With just one year remaining on his contract, Toronto dealt Clemens to the New York Yankees just before the 1999 season.

New York

From 1999-2003, Clemens alternated brilliance and mediocrity in New York. He averaged 114 ERA+ over that stretch and was twice an All Star. He won his sixth Cy Young on the strength of a 20-3 record in 2001.

The Yankees made the postseason every year, and advanced to the World Series four times. In 1999 and 2000, Roger Clemens helped pitch Boston’s greatest rival to World Series championships. It was salt in the wounds of a Red Sox Nation still burdened by the Curse of the Bambino.

Houston

A free agent again after 2003, Clemens was headed for his age-41 season. Although it appeared he would retire, Clemens instead opted to follow his friend and teammate Andy Pettitte to the Houston Astros.

Clemens took to the National League very well, compiling a 38-18 record and 180 ERA+ over three seasons in Houston. He won his seventh, and final, Cy Young in 2004. He was just the fourth player at the time to win the award in both leagues. He helped pitch the Astros to their first World Series appearance in franchise history in 2005, but they were swept by the Chicago White Sox.

Semi-Retirement and Retirement

By 2006, Clemens was looking for opportunities to pitch for contenders with reduced overall levels of commitment as he apparently contemplated outright retirement. Both 2006 with Houston, and 2007 in a return engagement with the Yankees, were shortened seasons in which Clemens did not pitch until June.

Although he was still effective in these reduced seasons, the rigors of his brilliant 24-year career had taken their toll.

Roger Clemens retired after the 2007 season.

Hall of Fame?

Roger Clemens is one of the few pitchers in history for whom you could make a legitimate case as the best hurler of all-time.

Over his incredible 24 seasons in the big leagues, Clemens cemented his place among baseball’s all-time greats.

Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards, the most in history. His 139.0 bWAR as a pitcher is third-most in history, and the most since integration. He is third all-time with 4672 strikeouts, and ninth in wins at 354.

For all of his on-field brilliance, Clemens is held back by a variety of other factors that have cast a dark cloud over his legacy. His personal temperament and character have been called into question in a variety of contexts. On the baseball side specifically, the court of public opinion has pretty clearly judged him guilty of steroid use during his career as well.

Each new round of Hall of Fame balloting has the potential to provide new information for how the public perception of his career may, or may not, be changing. Clemens climbed to 57.3% of the ballot in 2018. With four years remaining, it is unclear whether or not he will be able to make up the precious ground needed to get him to the 75% mark required for enshrinement in Cooperstown.

As the baseball world continues to try to sort through the mess left in the aftermath of the Steroid Era, Clemens’s legacy remains in limbo. Regardless of one’s personal opinion on how to judge these players, Roger Clemens is one of the most accomplished pitchers in big league history. However you choose to remember him, he will be remembered. In the end, that may be all that’s left for the Rocket.

1. Barry Bonds

JAWS: 117.8 (53.5 Average HOF LF)

Barry Bonds was born into Major League Baseball. The son of All Star outfielder Bobby Bonds, Barry was a second round pick of the San Francisco Giants out of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo in 1982. When the Bonds family and the Giants ended up $5,000 apart in the negotiations for his signing bonus, Barry enrolled at Arizona State. After an excellent career for the Sun Devils, Barry was drafted sixth overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1985. Bonds began the 1986 season in Triple-A, but was in the big leagues by June.

Bonds immediately established himself as one of the best all around players in the game. His broad base of tools and skills allowed him to average 124 OPS+ and 5.9 bWAR from 1986-1989. Although the Pirates turned in just one winning season in his first four, Bonds emerged as the center piece of a young, talented roster that would dominate the N.L. East in the early 90s.

1990 marked the first of three straight N.L. East championships for the Pirates. Each time they were defeated in the NLCS, first by the Cincinnati Reds, then by the Atlanta Braves in back-to-back seasons. Bonds won his first MVP award in 1990 when he led the league in slugging (.565) and OPS+ (170) while hitting 33 homers and stealing 52 bases. In 1991, he followed it up with league leading marks in OBP (.410) and OPS+ (160) en route to a second place MVP finish. In 1992, he won his second MVP after leading the league in runs (109), walks (127), OBP (.456), slugging (.624), and OPS+ (204).

San Francisco

When Barry Bonds hit free agency after the 1992 season, he was unquestionably the best player available. Entering his age-28 season, he was still young, but his personality, and asking price, limited the number of teams willing to pursue him. The new ownership group in San Francisco signed Bonds to the largest contract in baseball at $43 million over six years.

In San Francisco, Bonds remained one of the most transcendent players in the game. Over the life of his initial contract from 1993-1998, Bonds averaged .307/.445/.617, 182 OPS+, 39 homers, and 32 stolen bases. He was an All Star each season, and won his third MVP in 1993. Despite his brilliant performance, the Giants reached the playoffs just once, a division championship followed by first round defeat in 1997.

Following the 1998 home run craze, baseball had clearly undergone a paradigm shift. The high tide of offensive explosion experienced league wide during the previous decade swept the nation, including Barry Bonds.

By 2000, Bonds, now 35, was poised to take his game to another level. From 2000-2004, Bonds averaged .339/.535/.781, 241 OPS+, 52 homers, 174 walks, and 10.2 bWAR. It was the most utterly dominant stretch of offensive play in baseball history. He won the MVP each year from 2001-2004. The Giants made the playoffs in 2000, 2002, and 2003, peaking with an N.L. pennant in 2002.

Old age and injuries slowed Bonds into his 40s. Although no longer the otherworldly force he had been earlier in the decade, he was still among the best hitters in the game. In his final three seasons, from 2005-2007, Bonds averaged .274/.464/.561, 163 OPS+, but just 90 games. After he broke Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record in late 2007, his career came to an ignominious end. With mounting legal troubles presenting an ever-present cloud over his play, Bonds was not offered a contract to play in 2008. Despite coming off a season in which he led the league in walks (132), and OBP (.480), Barry Bonds never played again.

Hall of Fame?

Barry Bonds is arguably the best player to ever play Major League Baseball. His 162.8 bWAR is fourth best in history, and the highest of any player since integration. His seven MVP awards are the most in history (no other player has more than three). He is baseball’s all-time leader in home runs (762), and walks (2,558). He ranks in the top five in a host of other categories.

Like Clemens, the entirety of the argument around Bonds’s place in baseball history is centered on his steroid use during his peak seasons.

Bonds and Clemens are both trending fairly well in the ballots that have been made publicly available so far. Unfortunately, they have not gained much support from returning voters, a metric which pretty clearly indicates that many are not changing their opinions on the candidacies of two of the game’s greatest players.

The symmetry of their careers and candidacies is remarkable. Each player has a claim to the title of best player in history on his respective side of the ball. Each player dominated the game on a level that may never be matched. In the end, their fates are inextricably tied together. They have trended almost identically in the Hall of Fame balloting, and it’s not hard to see that this is a neither, or both, proposition with respect to Cooperstown.

For Hall of Fame junkies, there is perhaps no more important issue to monitor over the coming years.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (3-5)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman.

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

5. Larry Walker

JAWS: 58.7 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Larry Walker signed with the Montreal Expos as an amateur free agent out of British Columbia in November, 1984.

Walker made his big league debut with the Expos. Over six seasons in Montreal, he produced a .281/.353/.483 line, 128 OPS+, and 21.1 bWAR.

Heading into 1995, Walker signed a free agent contract with the Colorado Rockies. In 10 seasons with Colorado, he produced a .334/.426/.618 line, 147 OPS+, and 48.3 bWAR. He was one of the best all around players in the game during his time with the Rockies.

Walker spent the final two seasons of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. He remained an excellent hitter when healthy, posting a 134 OPS+ in 2004-2005. Walker helped the Cardinals reach the playoffs in both years.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Larry Walker’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.565, 141 OPS+. A true five-tool talent, Walker contributed in every facet of the game. He was a five-time All Star who won seven Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, and three batting titles. He received MVP votes eight times, winning the award in 1997.

Walker ranks as the 10th best right fielder in history by JAWS. He is above the average of Hall of Fame right fielders, giving serious weight to his candidacy. Every right fielder with a higher JAWS score than Walker is already enshrined in Cooperstown.

2019 is Walker’s ninth year on the ballot. His candidacy seems to have suffered from a combination of the Coors Field effect, and the number of his seasons that were cut short by injuries.

He did experience a surge last year, jumping from 21.9% of the vote in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018. With two years remaining, he has significant ground to cover. It appears that he will make substantial gains this year, but it’s unclear if he will be able to close the gap to the elusive 75% mark.

For those who saw him play, Larry Walker’s tremendous physical talent placed him among the game’s all-time great five-tool players. Larry Walker was a Hall of Fame player. Hopefully he receives the formal honors that go with it.

4. Mike Mussina

JAWS: 63.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Mike Mussina was born and raised in Central Pennsylvania. A 1987 graduate of Montoursville High School, Mussina was drafted in the 11th round by the Orioles that June. Rather than sign a professional contract, he enrolled at Stanford. In 1990, after his Junior season, Mussina was once again drafted by Baltimore, this time with the 20th overall pick.

As an advanced college arm, Mussina was sent directly to Double-A after signing, and reached Triple-A by the end of his draft year. Baseball America ranked him their #19 prospect heading into 1991. Mussina returned to Triple-A Rochester for some additional seasoning. After 19 minor league starts, he made his big league debut in August, 1991.

Mussina was immediately one of the best pitchers in the American League. After a strong showing in his rookie season, “Moose” made the All Star team for the first time in 1992. He would receive that honor four more times as a member of the Orioles.

In 1996-1997, Mussina led Baltimore’s pitching staff to back-to-back playoff appearances, first as a Wild Card, then to their first A.L. East title in 14 seasons. The Orioles were defeated in the ALDS both years.

Although the Orioles struggled during Mussina’s final three seasons in Baltimore, Moose remained one of the best pitchers in the American League.

In 10 seasons with the Orioles, Mussina went 147-81 with a 3.53 ERA, and 130 ERA+. After 2000, heading into his age-32 season, Mussina hit the free agent market as one of the most sought-after hurlers in the game. Much to the chagrin of Orioles fans, Mussina inked a massive six year, $87 million contract with their division rivals, the New York Yankees.

Mussina spent the last eight years of his career in the Bronx. In 2001, he made good on the first year of his new contract with a 17-11 record, and a league-leading 2.92 FIP. His 7.1 bWAR was tops on a team full of superstars that would go on to win the American League pennant.

The Yankees made the playoffs in each of Mussina’s first seven seasons with the club. When they made it back to the World Series in 2003, Mussina was again the best player on the roster at 6.6 bWAR.

In his late-30s, Mussina was more often an average pitcher than a star. From 2004-2008, he averaged 30 starts, 14 wins, 179 innings, and 107 ERA+. He retired after the 2008 season, despite coming off his first 20-win season, and finishing with his best ERA+ (131) since his first year in New York.

Hall of Fame?

Over the course of his 18-year career, Mike Mussina was one of the most consistently excellent, and durable starters in the game. He finished with a career record of 270-153, 3.68 ERA, and 123 ERA+.

Moose was a five-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, FIP, and walk rate once each during his career. Although he never won a Cy Young, he finished six, or better, nine times including a second place finish in 1999. He was also an excellent fielder, winning seven Gold Gloves.

JAWS ranks Mussina as the 29th best starting pitcher in history, above the average for Hall of Fame starters.

Although he never quite had the same stretch of dominance as the most legendary starters in history, Mike Mussina is a Hall of Famer. For 18 seasons he was one of the most reliably excellent pitchers in the game, all while working in the American League East during the peak of the steroid era.

Now in his sixth year on the ballot, Mussina appears nearly certain of eventual induction. After earning 63.5% of the vote in 2018, he is gaining additional support, and could be elected as soon as this year.

3. Curt Schilling

JAWS: 64.1 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Curt Schilling was born in Anchorage, Alaska. Schilling’s father, a sergeant in the U.S. Army, relocated his family several time during Curt’s youth. As something of a late-bloomer, Schilling went undrafted out of Shadown Mountain High School in Phoenix. He enrolled at Yavapai College, north of Phoenix, and was picked by the Boston Red Sox in the January phase of the 1986 draft. He signed in May and began his pro career that summer.

In July, 1988 the Red Sox packaged Schilling with another future star, outfielder Brady Anderson, in a deal to land veteran pitcher Mike Boddicker from the Baltimore Orioles. Boddicker was instrumental in helping the Red Sox secure the A.L. East title, but Baltimore would win the trade in the long term.

Schilling made his big league debut with Baltimore in 1988, but failed to stick with the club until a successful stint in the bullpen during the second half of 1990. That off season, Schilling was packaged with fellow future All Stars Steve Finley, and Pete Harnisch, in a deal to acquire slugger Glenn Davis from the Houston Astros.

After one mostly unremarkable season working out of the Houston bullpen, the Astros traded Schilling to the Phillies for right-hander Jason Grimsley. Although he would have a solid 15-year career of his own, Grimsley spent the entire 1992 season in the minors before Houston released him the following spring. Curt Schilling would go on to star for the Phillies.

In 1992, Schilling spent his age-25 season split between the bullpen and the starting rotation. By the time the dust had settled, he had worked 226.1 innings at 150 ERA+ with a league-leading 0.99 WHIP. Although he struggled to replicate that dominance over the next three seasons, Schilling did help pitch the Phillies to the 1993 World Series.

For all of his tremendous talent, Schilling struggled to realize his potential. Heading into his age-29 season in 1996, Schilling had 805 big league innings under his belt at 109 ERA+. Unexpectedly, 1996 would be the season that charted a new course for the remaining 12 seasons of his career.

From 1996-1999, Schilling averaged 30 starts, 222 innings, 238 strikeouts, and 137 ERA+. He made his first All Star team during his age-30 season.

Despite having one of the best starters in the league heading up their staff, the Phillies floundered. They rattled off seven straight losing seasons after their N.L. championship in 1993. In 2000, they traded their 33-year-old ace to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In Arizona, Schilling was paired with Randy Johnson to establish one of the most dominant 1-2 punches the game has ever seen.

In 2001, Johnson won the Cy Young, and Schilling finished second. The Diamondbacks won the N.L. West, and cruised into the playoffs ready to roll out their pair of aces. Schilling made six starts during the post season, including three in the World Series. He finished 4-0, allowing just six runs over 48.1 innings to help the Diamondbacks win the World Series in just their fourth season in existence. Schilling was the World Series MVP.

In 2002, Johnson and Schilling headed up the Cy Young balloting for the second straight season. The D’Backs won the division again, but were swept in the first round by the Cardinals.

Schilling was strong again in 2003, but after Arizona failed to make the playoffs, the club decided to go another direction. They agreed to deal Schilling to the Boston Red Sox. There, the 37-year-old ace was expected to form the same kind of dominant playoff duo that had brought a championship to the desert with another Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.

Schilling lived up to his end of the bargain, leading the A.L. with 21 wins, and a 5.80 K/BB ratio. The Red Sox made the playoffs as the Wild Card team. Schilling won three of his four playoff starts. The most famous of which was the legendary “Bloody Sock” Game Six of the ALCS as the Red Sox improbably won their third straight game to even the series with the Yankees. He also beat the Cardinals in Game Two of the World Series, putting a final stamp on his legacy as one of the most important players on the team that ended the Curse of the Bambino.

Schilling’s final season was 2007. At age 40, he made 24 regular season starts– enough to help Boston win the A.L. East title. He then went 3-0 in four playoff starts as the Red Sox won their second World Series in four years.

Hall of Fame?

Curt Schilling’s 20-year career was truly unique. Schilling compiled 79% of his career bWAR after the age of 30. His career arc defied logic making him an unlikely Hall of Fame candidate. He finished with a record of 216-146, 3.46 ERA, and 127 ERA+.

Schilling was a six-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, strikeouts, and WHIP twice each during his career. He finished fourth, or better, in the Cy Young voting four times, including three second-place finishes in a four year stretch from 2001-2004.

JAWS ranks Schilling as the 27th best starter in history, two spots ahead of Mussina. Despite his unique career path, Schilling is 15th all-time in strikeouts (3116). His 4.383 K/BB ratio is fifth best in history.

Now in his 7th year on the ballot, Schilling still has some ground to cover. After finishing with just 51.2% of the vote a year ago, his induction is not a foregone conclusion. His relative lack of support appears to be a combination of his low win total, a crowded ballot, and a series of controversial statements he has made since his retirement.

For whatever holes you might poke in Schilling’s resume, he is clearly a Hall of Famer based on merit alone. His late ascent to dominance should be easily counterbalanced by the extent of that dominance once he achieved it. Beyond that, his postseason resume, which includes World Series appearances with three different franchises, and a central role in winning three championships complete with signature moments, should remove any lingering doubt.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (9-10)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 11-15 by JAWS.

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

10. Andruw Jones

JAWS: 54.7 (57.7 Average HOF CF)

Andruw Jones was born and raised in Willemstad, Curacao. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in July, 1993. Once he reached the U.S., Jones quickly stood out among his peers. Baseball America ranked him as their top prospect prior to the 1996 season.

Just 19 in 1996, Jones advanced through three levels of the minor leagues, slugging 34 homers and stealing 30 bases in just 116 games. He made his big league debut in August, and quickly earned regular playing time. Jones became an international sensation when he hit .400/.500/.750 with two homers as a teenager in the Braves 1996 World Series loss to the Yankees.

Jones quickly established himself as one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. He won 10 straight Gold Gloves as a member of the Braves, helping to anchor the defense behind one of the greatest starting rotations in history.

His offense steadily improved as well. In 12 seasons with the Braves, Jones hit .263/.342/.497, 113 OPS+. In 2005 he finished second in the MVP voting when he led the league with 51 homers and 128 RBI in addition to his excellent defense.

The Braves won the N.L. East every season from 1996-2005. They won the pennant in 1996 and 1999. Jones was a critical piece of their sustained success.

After appearing in the postseason every year since 1991, the Braves finished third in 2006-2007. In 2007, Jones produced just 87 OPS+ in his age 30 season and the Braves elected to let him walk away as a free agent.

Jones signed with the Dodgers for 2008, but struggled to remain healthy and effective. He was released that winter and signed with the Rangers. Jones spent 2009-2012 in the American League. He played single seasons in Texas, Chicago, and the final two years of his career with the Yankees where he contributed to back-to-back A.L. East titles.

Jones starred for two seasons with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japanese Pacific League where he hit 50 homers in 2013-2014, but never returned to the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Andruw Jones hit .254/.337/.486, 111 OPS+. A solid hitter, Jones produced nearly as much value in the field and on the bases. He was a five-time All Star who won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes five times.

Jones ranks as the 11th best center fielder by JAWS. Although he is just shy of the average mark for the position, that number is boosted by the exceptional careers of several all-time greats. Jones ranks better than 12 of the 19 Hall of Fame center fielders.

There is a strange dynamic at play regarding the candidacy of Jones. For the first 11 years of his career, there was little doubt that Jones was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. An excellent defensive player who blossomed into an elite hitter, Jones had the benefit of breaking into the big leagues younger than most, and figured to rack up massive counting stats into his 30s.

Then the last part failed to materialize. Over the last six years of his career, Jones was an entirely different player. His athleticism declined with startling rapidity sapping his defensive value to the point where he abandoned center field altogether, and spent significant time at DH during his A.L. years. He produced just 92 OPS+ and 4.7 bWAR from age 30-35 before washing out of the big leagues for good.

Jones was named on just 7.3% of the ballots during his first year of eligibility. He is teetering on the brink of falling off the ballot entirely this year. The voters appear to be aggressively penalizing him for his rapid decline, rather than properly rewarding his magnificent peak.

For me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer. If forced to choose, I prefer shorter stretches of brilliance over long-term statistical compilers. Both have their place in Cooperstown, and Andruw Jones certainly fits into the former category.

9. Manny Ramirez

JAWS: 54.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Manny Ramirez was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. He moved to the U.S. as a teenager, and graduated from George Washington High School in Manhattan. The Cleveland Indians drafted him 13th overall in June, 1991. A supremely talented hitter, Ramirez immediately put himself on the prospect map. After shredding the high minors in 1993, he earned a big league trial. Baseball America ranked him as their #7 prospect entering 1994.

The Cleveland Indians were on the verge of becoming one of the most successful teams of the late-90s when Ramirez burst onto the scene. They were one game out of first when the strike began in 1994. Cleveland would go on to win five straight A.L. Central titles as Ramirez established himself as one of the best hitters in the game.

During his eight seasons in Cleveland, Ramirez hit .313/.407/.592, 152 OPS+. He led the league with 165 RBI in 1999 and paced the junior circuit in slugging and OPS in 1999-2000.

Manny hit free agency after the 2000 season. He was entering his age-29 season coming off three straight top-six MVP finishes. In a move that would alter the course of two franchises, Ramirez signed with the Boston Red Sox.

In Boston, Manny was exactly as advertised. He remained of the most feared right-handed hitters in the game for eight seasons with the Red Sox. His career line in Boston was a virtual carbon copy of that in Cleveland at .312/.411/.588, 155 OPS+. He won the batting title in 2002 (.349), led the league in slugging in 2004 (.613), and had the highest OBP in the league three times as a member of the Red Sox.

Manny would end up as a central piece of Boston’s turnaround after the turn of the century. Boston won the Wild Card three straight years beginning in 2003. Their improbable ALCS comeback against the Yankees in 2004 paved the way for the franchise’s first World Series championship since 1918. Manny was the World Series MVP in the sweep of the Cardinals. When they won again in 2007, Manny was still hitting in the middle of the Boston order.

By 2008, Ramirez’s declining defensive value, and generally erratic behavior, had worn thin in Boston. It became clear that the Red Sox would not sign him to a contract extension after the season. Although he was still a productive hitter, and they were in the middle of a playoff race, the Red Sox traded Ramirez to the Dodgers at the deadline.

Ramirez dominated the stretch run in Los Angeles, helping the Dodgers to the N.L. West title. He signed a contract extension in L.A. and helped the Dodgers repeat as division champs the next year, although he was suspended 50 games for PED use.

When the Dodgers faded in 2010, they let Manny pass to the White Sox via waivers late in August. He played his final big league game for Tampa in April, 2011. Although he bounced around the Triple-A Pacific Coast League for three different teams from 2012-2014, he would never return to the Majors.

Hall of Fame?

In his incredible 19-year career, Manny Ramirez hit .312/.411/.585, 154 OPS+. His 555 career homers rank 15th all-time. Manny was a 12-time All Star who won nine Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes 11 times including eight straight top-nine finishes.

Manny ranks as the 10th best left fielder in history by JAWS. He is just above the average, and ranks better than 13 of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position.

Like half-a-dozen players on the current ballot, Ramirez’s candidacy has been torpedoed by steroid use. Ramirez tested positive three different times during his career leaving a permanent black eye on his resume.

Although his credentials place him at a level above Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa, the voters have clearly shown that they view Manny closer to that group than to Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Now in his third year of eligibility, Manny clearly needs a shift in the voters’ attitudes toward the steroid era to have any chance of enshrinement in Cooperstown.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (21-25)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

We begin with the players who rank 21-25 by JAWS.

25. Freddy Garcia

JAWS: 30.9 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Freddy Garcia was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Houston Astros in 1993. In 1998, the Astros packaged him with Carlos Guillen and John Halama to acquire future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson from the Seattle Mariners. Johnson made 11 dominant starts for Houston, helping them to the NL Central championship before signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks after the season. Garcia and Guillen would each end up among the greatest players in Mariners history.

In six seasons with Seattle, Freddy Garcia went 76-50 with a 114 ERA+, accumulating 18.7 bWAR. He was a two-time All Star with the Mariners and led the American League in ERA (3.05) and innings (238.2) in 2001.

With Garcia approaching free agency, the Mariners dealt him to the Chicago White Sox in June, 2004. From 2004-2006, Garcia made 82 starts for the White Sox, remaining consistently above-average in the process. He was a key piece of the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox.

Chicago traded Garcia to the Phillies after the 2006 season. From 2007-2013, Garcia bounced around to six teams including a return engagement with the White Sox in 2009-2010. In 2011, he made 25 starts at 119 ERA+ to help the Yankees win the A.L. East. Overall, he struggled to remain both healthy and effective for much of his final seven seasons.

Hall of Fame?

Freddy Garcia is one of the best pitchers in the comparatively short history of the Seattle Mariners. He will be listed on the all-time Mariners starting rotation here on Franchise Phenoms. He also holds a special place in the hearts of White Sox fans for his role in ending their franchise’s World Series drought.

As his JAWS ratings would suggest, Freddy Garcia clearly falls below the standard for Hall of Fame starting pitchers. Garcia is probably one-and-done on the ballot. At the same time, he will be fondly remembered by the fan bases of at least two franchises, and that is what we’re all about at Franchise Phenoms.

24. Derek Lowe

JAWS: 31.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Derek Lowe was selected by the Seattle Mariners in the 8th round of the 1991 draft out of Ford High School in Dearborn, MI. Lowe made his big league debut with the Mariners in 1997. That July, he was traded with Jason Varitek to the Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb. Slocumb made minimal impact on the Mariners while Lowe and Varitek would become Franchise Phenoms for Boston.

In eight seasons with the Red Sox, Lowe would go on to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history. Lowe began his career as a versatile, mult-inning arm before becoming closer, and eventually shifting to the starting rotation for the second half of his Red Sox career. He was a two-time All Star, once as a reliever, and once as a starter. He led the league in saves in 2000, and finished third in the Cy Young voting as a starter in 2002. In 1037 innings, he posted 127 ERA+ and 19.4 bWAR.

Lowe was the winning pitcher in Game Four of the 2004 World Series, as the Red Sox finished off a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals and dispelled the Curse of the Bambino.

Following the 2004 season, Lowe signed a four-year contract to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the Dodgers, Lowe was largely the same pitcher he had been in Boston. He was a key piece of L.A.’s staring rotation, throwing strikes and racking up ground balls. He finished his Dodgers tenure with 120 ERA+ and 13.3 bWAR. Lowe helped the Dodgers to the postseason in 2006 and 2008.

In 2009, heading into his age-36 season, Lowe signed a free agent deal to join the Atlanta Braves. Although he remained durable, he was less effective during his three years in Atlanta. In 2012-2013, Lowe concluded his career by bouncing from Cleveland to the Yankees, and finally to Texas.

Hall of Fame?

Derek Lowe holds an important place in Red Sox history. His role on the 2004 World Series winners will ensure him a place in Red Sox lore.

Lowe had an excellent 11-year stretch in Boston and L.A. where he was above-average in every season but one. For all of his reliability and sustained success, he was seldom dominant. Aside from 1999-2000 out of the bullpen, and his third-place Cy Young finish as a starter in 2002, Lowe was most often not recognized among the very best pitchers of his generation.

Like Garcia, Lowe falls well short of the Hall of Fame standards for staring pitchers and figures to have a short stay on the ballot. His immortal status in Boston will remain his true legacy.

23. Kevin Youkilis

JAWS: 31.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Kevin Youkilis was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Cincinnati. As a minor leaguer, Youkilis was made famous beyond his prospect status when he was dubbed “The Greek god of Walks” in Moneyball.

Youkilis made his big league debut for the Red Sox in May, 2004. He played a supporting role in the team’s improbable run to its first World Series championship since 1918.

Youkilis was a slightly above-average hitter from 2004-2007. His plate discipline translated nicely, but he failed to show the home run power desired for a corner player.

In the 2007 playoffs, Youkilis was a monster. He hit .500/.576/.929 in Boston’s seven game series win over the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS. The Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the World Series to earn their second championship in four seasons.

Then the power started to show. From 2008-2011, Youk was one of the best offensive players in baseball. He averaged 142 OPS+ and 5.5 bWAR per season during that stretch. He was an All Star in three of those four seasons, and twice got MVP votes finishing third in 2008, and sixth in 2009. With Youk as a driving force, Boston made the playoffs again in both 2008 and 2009.

By 2012, the 33-year-old Youkilis was slowing down. The Red Sox traded him to the White Sox in June. He was better in Chicago, but nothing like the player he had been the previous four years. He played 28 games with the Yankees in 2013, but injuries severely limited him. Youk played 21 games in Japan in 2014, but never returned to the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

Kevin Youkilis enjoyed a surprisingly short 10-year career in the Major Leagues. His distinctive nickname, facial hair, and batting stance all contributed to a cult following in Red Sox Nation. 96% of his career bWAR was accumulated in parts of nine seasons with the Red Sox. He was a three-time All Star, and won a Gold Glove at first base in 2007.

I will confess to being mildly startled by the realization that Youk played more career games at first base than at third. His career 123 OPS+ would look considerably better at the hot corner. Either way, a 10-year career is seldom enough to earn a place in Cooperstown.

Like Garcia and Lowe, Kevin Youkilis was a great player who will be fondly remembered for his role on championship teams, but not a Hall of Famer.

22. Omar Vizquel

JAWS: 36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Omar Vizquel is the first truly interesting case in this exercise. Now in his second year on the ballot, Vizquel showed nicely last winter, earning 37% of the vote. As an 11-time Gold Glover and three-time All Star, Vizquel clearly has some staying power.

Vizquel is one of the best defensive players in baseball history. What makes his candidacy interesting is that it is almost entirely dependent on defense.

In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter. He was an above-average offensive player just twice. This type of candidate is rare, and Vizquel figures to be one of the more polarizing figures on the ballot in coming years.

As a result, I am devoting an entire separate piece to asking the question: Is Omar Vizquel a Hall of Famer?

21. Placido Polanco

JAWS: 36.9 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Placido Polanco was born and raised in the Dominican Republic. After finishing high school in Santo Domingo, Polanco came to the United States. He attended Miami-Dade Junior College in Florida where he was drafted twice. First, in the 49th round by the White Sox in 1993, and then again in the 19th round by the Cardinals the following year.

At the tender age of 22, Polanco made his big league debut with the Cardinals during Mark McGwire’s home run chase in 1998. Never much of an offensive player in the minors, it took Polanco time to acclimate to the big leagues as well. He was a part-time player until 2001, and failed to post a single above-average offensive line in his five seasons with the Cardinals.

At the 2002 trade deadline, Polanco joined left-hander Bud Smith as the headliners in a package that landed Phillies Franchise Phenom Scott Rolen in St. Louis. Polanco elevated his offensive game in Philadelphia by gradually unlocking a little more power and patience. He became a consistently above-average hitter with the Phillies from 2002-2005.

In June, 2005 the Phillies traded Polanco to the Detroit Tigers for closer Ugueth Urbina. Polanco had the best seasons of his career in Detroit from 2005-2009. In 2007 he earned All Star, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger honors for the first time in his career at 31 years old. He won his second Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009.

Polanco returned to Philadelphia from 2010-2012. In 2011, he made his second All Star team and won his third Gold Glove, this time at third base. He finished his career with the Marlins in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Placido Polanco played 16 seasons in the big leagues. He was most often an average player, but occasionally a star.

Never the best player on his own team, much less the league, Polanco figures to join Garcia, Lowe, Youkilis, and probably 10 others as one-and-done’s on this year’s ballot.

Red Sox Mount RushWAR: Ted Williams

The Mount RushWAR series will allow us to take a more in-depth look at the careers of the four players with the highest bWAR in each franchise’s history.

Ted Williams (123.1)

Background

Ted Williams was born and raised in San Diego, California. A graduate of Herbert Hoover High School, Williams got his start in pro-ball right in his own back yard with the San Diego Padres, then members of the Double-A Pacific Coast League.

In 1937, while playing for the Padres, Williams was identified as a big league prospect. White Sox Mount RushWAR honoree, Eddie Collins, then the General Manager of the Boston Red Sox, acquired Williams from the Padres after his age-18 season.

Williams spent his age-19 season dominating the Double-A American Association for the Minneapolis Millers. He hit .366 with 43 homers, placing himself firmly on the big club’s radar for 1939.

Red Sox Career

Immediate Impact

Williams made the opening day roster for Boston in 1939. The 20-year-old outfielder was as good as advertised. Williams finished third in the league with 160 OPS+, and led the league with 145 RBI. He finished fourth in the MVP voting after his rookie season. Boston won 89 games, but finished second to the Yankees.

In 1940, Williams was again the third best hitter in the American League at 161 OPS+. He led the league with a .442 OBP, and 134 runs. Williams was selected for what would be the first of 17 seasons as an American League All Star. Boston finished in fourth place at 82-72.

.406

1941 would turn out to be among the most important years in United States history. With the nation drifting closer to eventual entry into World War II, baseball provided a welcomed distraction from world affairs. Ted Williams was right at the center of one of baseball’s most magical summers.

Williams got off to a slow start with just 19 plate appearances through the team’s first nine games in April. By the end of the month, he was playing every day, and on the verge of one of the hottest streaks of his career.

He hit .436/.540/.683 in the month of May. He finished the month in the midst of a 23-game hitting streak that would carry into June.

His season batting average crested on June 6 at .436. Although he couldn’t hold that pace, he was still hitting .404 at the end of the month.

July brought the “low point” in his season. His average dipped to .393 on July 19. He got back to .400 on July 25, and would seldom drop below that magic number the rest of the season.

From July 25 onward, Williams finished the season on a torrid pace. Over his final 64 games, he hit .417/.594/.804 with 19 homers, and an incredible 87 walks against just 15 strikeouts.

After a 4-17 stretch in late-September, his average dipped to .39955 on September 27. With the Red Sox eliminated from playoff contention, destined to yet again finish second to the Yankees, manager Joe Cronin gave Williams the option to sit out the final day and hang onto his rounded .400 average. Williams famously elected to play, finishing 6-8 on the day, and .406 on the season.

On some levels, Williams’s season is held in even greater esteem in modern times than it was as it happened. Joe DiMaggio’s record-setting 56-game hitting streak the same summer for the first-place Yankees stole some of Williams’s thunder. There have been 27 times a player ended his season with an average above .400. It had been 11 years since Bill Terry hit .401 for the New York Giants, and it was not apparent that Williams would be perhaps the last to accomplish the feat.

Before the War

1942 was yet another excellent season for Williams. Four seasons into his big league career, it was clear that Williams was one of the game’s greatest players.

From 1939-1942, Williams averaged .356/.481/.642, 190 OPS+, and 8.6 bWAR per season. He was a three-time All Star with two batting championships, and two home run titles to his credit. He had finished second in the MVP voting back-to-back seasons in 1941-1942.

World War II

With the United States military embroiled in the Second World War, Williams enlisted in the navy’s aviation program in 1943. He spent the next three years serving in the armed forces. Williams initially trained as a naval pilot before joining the Marine Corps. Upon joining the Marines, Williams was quickly assigned duties as a flight instructor during the late stages of the Pacific War.

Although Williams never served in combat, his commitment to the service of his country would become a hallmark of his legacy.

1946: Return to Baseball

The Red Sox struggled mightily without their star slugger from 1943-1945 and failed to finish above .500 during that stretch. Following the end of the War in 1945, Williams returned to the Red Sox for the 1946 season.

Now in his age-27 season, Williams proved he was still among the game’s best players despite his time away from the game. Williams was the best player in the American League in 1946. He led the league in runs (142), walks (156), OBP (.497), slugging (.667), OPS+ (215), and bWAR (10.9).

Williams joined fellow Red Sox Franchise Phenoms Bobby Doerr, and Dom DiMaggio, to form the core of a Red Sox offense that led the league by scoring 88 more runs than the next closest team. The Red Sox won 104 games to cruise to the American League pennant.

In the 1946 World Series, Boston faced the St. Louis Cardinals. Williams hit just .200/.333/.200, and the Cardinals took the series in seven games.

Ted Williams was the American League MVP in 1946. The Red Sox would never play another postseason game during the Ted Williams era.

1947-1951

Coming off a brilliant MVP season, Williams proved he had plenty left in the tank. Over the next five years, Williams averaged .340/.483/.619, 184 OPS+, and 7.7 bWAR per season. He won two more batting titles, and twice more led the league in homers during this stretch.

Williams was an All Star in each of the six seasons between his two stints in the armed forces.

He added his second MVP award in 1949 when he led the league in runs (150), doubles (39), homers (43), RBI (159), walks (162), OBP (.490), slugging (.650), OPS+ (191), and bWAR (9.1).

The Korean War

The Korean War began on June 25, 1950 when the North Korean Army invaded South Korea. With the government of the United States committed to combating the spread of communism even in foreign nations, American military involvement in the region quickly escalated.

As the war expanded, the Marines recalled experienced pilots to active duty. Williams got his orders just six games into the 1952 season. After training to operate the new planes, Williams headed to Korea on active duty in early 1953. Williams flew 39 combat missions in Korea and, on a few occasions, was lucky to return alive.

Williams was sent home in June after a series of illnesses. He was formally discharged when a cease-fire went into effect the following month. Williams was selected as an All Star in 1953 despite playing just 37 games after he returned home. In total, he had just 122 plate appearances in 43 games sandwiched around his time in the service in 1952-1953.

“The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived”

Ted Williams returned to the Red Sox full-time in 1954. Although he increasingly dealt with injuries and physical ailments into his late-30s, it was this stretch of his career where Williams cemented his place in baseball history.

In the final seven seasons of his career from 1954-1960, Williams was every bit the hitter he had always been. He averaged .337/.477/.624, 189 OPS+, and 5.3 bWAR per season. He made the All Star team in each season, and finished seventh, or better, in the MVP race five times. Even in his final season at age 41, Williams produced 190 OPS+ in 113 games.

Legacy

In 19 seasons with the Red Sox, Ted Williams was an All Star in 17 seasons.
A two-time MVP who twice won the Triple Crown, Williams is in a category all by himself in Boston lore.

He is Boston’s career leader in average (.344), OBP (.482), slugging (.634), homers (521), walks (2021), and OPS+ (190).

His advanced knowledge and understanding of the game served as the foundation of a legend that goes beyond being the very best at what he did. Williams literally wrote the book on hitting.

His career bWAR ranks 14th in history despite missing nearly five full seasons during his prime while serving in the military. Williams has the highest OBP in big league history, and ranks second in slugging. Any way you slice it, Teddy Ballgame is one of the greatest players in baseball history.

Remembering Ted Williams: A Marine Fighter Pilot

Ted Williams on SABR

American Masters: Ted Williams. Trailer from PBS

All-Time Red Sox Team

Next up Franchise Phenoms is the All-Time Red Sox Team. Boston follows the White Sox, Phillies, and Rockies as fourth up in our series.

Franchise Overview

The Red Sox were founded in 1901 as a charter member of the American League. Only eight National League franchises have played more seasons than the Red Sox.

For much of the middle portion of their existence, Red Sox history was marked by disappointment and unfulfilled promise. Boston famously did not win a World Series from 1918-2004. They made the playoffs 10 times during that period, including four trips to the fall classic. Boston fans gradually became accustomed to having their hearts ripped out in the most dramatic and agonizing fashion.

The total picture of Red Sox history is actually much prettier than the heartache in the middle. The misery of Boston fans has been book-ended by two of the most impressive stretches of any franchise in history.

The Red Sox are tied for the third most World Series championships in history with nine (1903, 1912, 1915, 1916, 1918, 2004, 2007, 2013, 2018).

Their .519 winning percentage is the fifth best all-time mark of any big league franchise.

Boston has made the playoffs in 20.3 % of their seasons, the seventh highest percentage in history.

Red Sox fans may always measure their franchise against the long-term dominance of their rivals in New York. Viewed in that context, there is still work to do. At the same time, Boston’s history would be the envy of nearly every other fan-base in America. Context is fun.

Hitters

Starting Lineup	Name	Position	B/T	bWAR/ 650	OPS+	Years Played
1.	Wade Boggs	3B	L/R	6.5	142	1982-92
2.	Ted Williams	RF (LF)	L/R	8.2	190	1939-60
3.	Nomar Garciaparra	SS (1B)	R/R	6.3	133	1996-2004
4.	David Ortiz	DH (1B)	L/L	4.2	148	2003-16
5.	Carl Yastrzemski	CF (LF/1B)	L/R	4.5	129	1961-83
6.	Jim Rice	LF	R/R	3.5	128	1974-89
7.	Dwight Evans	1B (RF)	R/R	4.3	127	1972-90
8.	Carlton Fisk	C	R/R	6.0	126	1969-80
9.	Dustin Pedroia	2B	R/R	5.0	113	2006-Present

Bench
OF	Harry Hooper	RF	L/R	3.5	114	1909-20
OF	Dom DiMaggio	CF	R/R	3.3	110	1940-53
IN	Bobby Doerr	2B	R/R	4.2	115	1937-51
IN	Rico Petrocelli	SS/3B	R/R	4.2	108	1963-76
C	Jason Varitek	C	S/R	2.8	98	1997-2011

Fenway Phenoms

Not surprisingly, for a team that has had the long-term historical success of the Red Sox, the All-Time Red Sox Team is one of the most impressive rosters in the entire exercise. The All-Time Red Sox hitters have the seventh highest average OPS+.

Boston’s all-time starting nine is an impressive collection of talent and names.

“The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived”

Any list of the greatest Red Sox in history has to begin with Ted Williams. A two-time MVP who twice won the Triple Crown, Williams is in a category all by himself in Boston lore. He was an All Star in 17 of the 19 seasons he played for the Red Sox.

His career bWAR ranks 14th in history despite missing significant time in his prime while serving in the military. Williams has the highest OBP in big league history (.482) and ranks second in slugging (.634). Any way you slice it, Teddy Ballgame is one of the greatest players in baseball history.

Red Sox Royalty

Like Williams, Carl Yastrzemski holds a special place in the hearts of Boston fans. Yaz spent his entire 23-year career in Boston, earning All Star honors in 18 of those seasons. In 1967, he propelled the Red Sox to the World Series. He won the MVP and the Triple Crown that year, captivating Red Sox Nation. He is probably more responsible for reversing the fortunes of one of the game’s great franchises than any other player.

Designated Hitter, David Ortiz is a similarly mythical figure in Boston history. A 10-time All Star, Big Papi was one of the most feared sluggers of his generation. The slayer of Boston’s postseason demons, his clutch-hitting feats are the stuff of baseball legend. Ortiz has a chance to break the stigma against players who were primarily designated hitters making the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Famers Galore

Third baseman Wade Boggs was an eight-time All Star during his 11 years in Boston. Perhaps the greatest pure hitter and on-base machine of his generation, Boggs won five batting titles, and led the league in OBP six times during his Red Sox career. He was a solid defender as well, winning two Gold Gloves to boot.

Carlton Fisk is one of the great catchers in big league history. In 11 seasons in Boston, Pudge was a seven-time All Star as one of the best offensive catchers the game has ever seen. His homer in Game Six of the 1975 World Series is one of the most iconic moments in baseball history. He made the All Star team five more times as a member of the White Sox, where he can also lay claim to the title of best catcher in their franchise’s history.

Left-fielder Jim Rice developed a reputation as one of the most feared sluggers of his day. In 16 seasons with the Red Sox, Rice was an eight-time All Star. He led the league in homers three times, and won the AL MVP in 1978.

The Rest of the Starters

Shortstop Nomar Garciaparra burst onto the scene as the 1997 AL Rookie of the Year. Nomar was a two-time batting champion, and five-time All Star in Boston. Nomar’s nine years in Boston represent one of the best offensive stretches for a shortstop in big league history.

Dwight Evans gets the nod at first base. Dewey played 19 of his 20 seasons in Boston. An excellent outfielder who won eight Gold Gloves in Boston’s difficult right field, Evans moves to first to accommodate Boston’s wealth of great outfielders. He was a three-time All Star and two-time Silver Slugger as well. A well-rounded player, he led the league in walks three times and homers, runs, and OBP once each.

Second baseman Dustin Pedroia endeared himself to Red Sox fans the way few other players have. Listed at just 5’9″, 175 pounds, Pedroia’s “Laser Show” was one of the top attractions on two World Series teams. To date, Pedroia has made the All Star team four times. He has also won four Gold Gloves, and a Silver Slugger with Boston. He was the AL MVP in 2008 when he led the league in runs, hits, and doubles.

Bench

Hall of Fame right fielder Harry Hooper is part of a deep Boston bench. A speed/OBP oriented offensive player, Hooper spent 12 years in Boston. He received MVP votes in 1913-1914. He is Boston’s career leader in triples (130).

Center fielder Dom DiMaggio played his entire 11-year career with the Red Sox. He was a seven-time All Star despite missing his age 26-28 seasons in military service during World War II. DiMaggio received MVP votes six times, including a 9th place finish in 1946. He twice led the league in runs, and once each in triples and stolen bases.

Hall of Fame second baseman Bobby Doerr headlines the Boston bench. With more power than a typical middle infielder, Doerr racked up nine All Star selections in 14 seasons with Boston. He led the league in slugging in 1944. Doerr received MVP votes eight times, finishing third in 1946.

Rico Petrocelli spent 13 years in Boston, splitting his time between shortstop and third base. A well-regarded defensive player who as occasionally excellent at the plate as well, Petrocelli was one of the more underrated players of his generation. He was a two-time All Star, and received MVP votes three times. In 1969, he clubbed 40 homers en route to an incredible 10.0 bWAR to lead the American League, but finished just 7th in the MVP race.

Jason Varitek gets the nod as the backup catcher. As captain of the Red Sox for the final seven seasons of his 15-year career, Varitek was at the center of some of the best teams in Boston history including two World Series champions. The switch-hitter was a three-time All Star who also pulled in Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards in 2005. He received down-ballot MVP consideration three times.

Pitchers

Starting Rotation	Name	B/T	ERA+	Years Played
1.	Cy Young	R/R	147	1901-08
2.	Pedro Martinez	R/R	191	1998-2004
3.	Roger Clemens	R/R	145	1984-96
4.	Jon Lester	L/L	120	2006-14
5.	Luis Tiant	R/R	119	1971-78

Bullpen
LR	Tim Wakefield	R/R	106	1995-2011
RP	Bob Stanley	R/R	119	1977-89
RP	Derek Lowe	R/R	128	1998-2004
RP	Ellis Kinder	R/R	135	1948-55
SU	Dick Radatz	R/R	147	1962-66
CL	Jonathan Papelbon	R/R	197	2005-11

Starting Rotation

The Red Sox carry a truly elite collection of all-time pitching talent. The 144 OPS+ average of their five starting pitchers is the best of any all-time team’s rotation.

All-Time Greats

The Name

The man whose name is synonymous with pitching excellence fronts Boston’s rotation. Cy Young started his career with nine seasons for the now-defunct Cleveland Spiders, then two in St. Louis before coming to Boston in 1901. In eight seasons with the Red Sox, Cy Young solidified his status as a big league legend.

Young won the Triple Crown while pitching for Boston in 1901. Overall, he led the league in wins three times, innings twice, ERA and strikeouts once each for the Red Sox. Modern metrics view him favorably as well. He led the league in FIP three times, WHIP four times, and strikeout-to-walk ratio five times during his time in Boston. He eclipsed nine bWAR an incredible four times during his Boston years alone. Cy Young remains baseball’s all-time leader in wins (511), starts (815), complete games (749), and innings (7356).

The Force

Name recognition gets Cy Young the ceremonial top spot in Boston’s rotation, but Pedro Martinez has a legitimate claim to the title of best Red Sox pitcher in history. Pedro’s seven-year run in Boston is considered among the best stretches of any pitcher, in any era, in history. His pinpoint control of some of the best stuff the game has ever seen often made him unhittable.

Like Cy Young himself, Pedro has a Triple Crown to his credit with the Red Sox in 1999. Pedro was a four-time All Star in Boston. He won back-to-back Cy Youngs in 1999-2000 and finished in the top-five four more times. He also received MVP votes five times, including back-to-back top-five finishes in his Cy Young seasons.

Martinez led the league in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, FIP, and K/9 in the same season four times with the Red Sox. In a loaded pantheon of Boston starting pitchers, Pedro has the top strikeout and strikeout-walk rates in team history. While he may not have the longevity of some of Boston’s other pitchers, there is little debate that he was the most dominant.

The Rocket

Roger Clemens spent the first 13 seasons of his 24-year career in Boston giving him the longest tenure of any member of the rotation. With some of the most explosive stuff the game had seen in its history, Clemens became an icon nationwide. He would go on to forge one of the most remarkable, and controversial, careers in big league history, and it all began in Boston.

Clemens won the first of three Cy Young awards with Boston at age 23 in 1986 when he was also the MVP. He backed it up with another Cy Young season in 1987 before winning his third in 1991. Clemens also had three other top-six finishes with the Red Sox. He earned MVP votes four times in Boston. He was a five-time All Star for the Red Sox.

Clemens led the league in FIP six times as a member of the Red Sox. He also paced in the A.L. in ERA, ERA+, and strikeout-to-walk ratio four times, and wins, strikeouts, and WHIP twice each. Clemens leads Red Sox pitchers in wins, strikeouts, and shutouts for his career. With the most pitching bWAR of any Red Sox hurler, we will dig deeper into his career in the Mount RushWAR series.

The Lefty

Jon Lester spent the first nine years of his career in Boston. Although rarely recognized as among the very best pitchers in the game, his steadiness in big games proved invaluable on the road to two World Series titles in Boston. Lester was a three-time All Star in Boston. He finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2010 and 2014. He led the league in K/9 in 2010.

The Cuban

One of the best Latin pitchers in history, Luis Tiant began his career in Cleveland before coming to Boston at age 30 in 1971. At a time in his career when it appeared his best days were behind him, Tiant’s eight years in Boston were his renaissance. In Boston, he was a two-time All Star who finished sixth or better in the Cy Young voting three times while earning MVP votes in each of those seasons. Tiant led the league in ERA in 1972, and WHIP in 1973.

Bullpen

As good as Boston’s all-time starting rotation is, the bullpen isn’t far behind. The average ERA+ for Boston’s all-time relievers is tied for sixth best.

Jonathan Papelbon gets the nod at closer for the Red Sox. His 197 ERA+ over seven seasons in Boston is the fourth best mark of any Franchise Phenom reliever. Papelbon made four straight All Star teams from 2006-2009. He earned saves in three of Boston’s four World Series wins, including the clincher, in 2007. His 219 saves are the most in Red Sox history.

In five years with Boston, Dick Radatz was one of the most effective relievers in baseball. He was utterly dominant for his first three seasons, and led the league in saves twice during that stretch. He was a two-time All Star who twice finished in the top-10 in the MVP voting. Radatz still has the lowest Hit/9 rate of any pitcher in Boston history.

Ellis Kinder began his Red Sox career as a starter, including a 23-win season in 1949. He ultimately shifted to the bullpen, and was primarily a reliever for five of his eight years in Boston. Kinder led the league in saves, and appearances, in 1951 and 1953. He finished 11th, or better, in the MVP race three times.

Acquired from the Mariners in the same trade that brought fellow Franchise Phenom Jason Varitek to Boston, Derek Lowe would go on to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history. Lowe began his career as a versatile, mult-inning arm before becoming closer, and eventually shifting to the starting rotation for the second half of his Red Sox career. He was a two-time All Star, once as a reliever, and once as a starter. He led the league in saves in 2000, and finished third in the Cy Young as a starter in 2002.

Bob Stanley spent his entire 13-year career in Boston, primarily as a reliever. A versatile pitcher who regularly threw multiple innings out of the bullpen, Stanley was one of Boston’s most trusted arms for more than a decade. He was a two-time All Star who twice finished seventh in the Cy Young voting, and earned MVP votes three times. He led the league in ERA+ in 1982. Stanley remains Boston’s all-time leader in games pitched (637) and games finished (377).

Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield rounds out the Boston pitching staff. Although he was primarily a starter in his 17 seasons with Boston, he did make 160 relief appearances. Wakefield finished third in the Cy Young voting in his 1995 Red Sox debut. He would go on to be a critical piece of two World Series teams. He was an All Star in 2009. Wakefield is Boston’s all-time leader in games started (430) and innings (3006).