2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Chavez and Furcal

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

19. Eric Chavez

JAWS: 34.3 (55.7 Average HOF 3B)

Eric Chavez was drafted 10th overall by the Oakland Athletics out of Mount Carmel High School in San Diego, CA in 1996. A phenomenal talent, Chavez engineered a quick rise through the Oakland system. In 1997, he made his professional debut in High-A at 19. During his age-20 season, he conquered Double-A, Triple-A, and made his big league debut.

Heading into 1999, his age-21 season, Eric Chavez was ranked as the #3 prospect in baseball. He made the Athletics as the opening day third baseman, and never looked back.

Moneyball A’s

The start of Chavez’s career coincided with the beginning of the legendary Moneyball era in Oakland. Chavez would be at the center of a young core whose narrative would forever alter baseball.

Chavez quickly established himself as an above-average big leaguer despite his tender age. In 1999-2000, Chavez averaged 109 OPS+ and 2.2 bWAR. His defense quickly improved from solid to excellent. Meanwhile, Oakland was emerging as one of the best teams in baseball.

Beginning in 2001, Chavez took his game to another level. From 2001-2003, Chavez averaged .282/.345/.522, 127 OPS+, 38 doubles, 32 homers, 108 RBI, and 5.2 bWAR. He won three Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and received MVP votes twice.

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series.  With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. 

Rather than resign former MVP shortstop Miguel Tejada after the 2003 season, Beane opted to put his money down on Chavez. In March, 2004, Chavez signed a six-year, $66 million contract extension to remain with the A’s.

Team Leader

The contract extension ultimately kept Chavez in Oakland through the 2010 season. Unfortunately, his days as a true superstar were numbered. In 2004, Chavez basically matched the previous three years, posting 5.5 bWAR while leading the A.L. in walks (95), winning his fourth Gold Glove in a row, and again receiving MVP votes. Oakland missed the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Injuries began to steadily chip away at Chavez’s physical capabilities. In 2005-2006, he won his fifth, and sixth, consecutive Gold Gloves. At the same time, his offensive production declined from star caliber to just a tick above-average at 107 OPS+. Oakland won the A.L. West in 2006, but once again fell short of the World Series.

Early Decline

The vast majority of Chavez’s career accomplishments took place prior to his age-29 season in 2007. From 2007-2010, Chavez averaged just 38 games per season at 85 OPS+. His absence was a devastating blow to an Oakland team that had committed a significant chunk of its payroll to him. The A’s never had another winning season with Chavez on the roster.

A free agent after 2010, Chavez knocked around for a few more years. He spent 2011-2012 with a pair of division winning Yankees teams. He was especially effective in 2012, posting 125 OPS+ as a part-time DH/corner bat.

In 2013-2014, Chavez played a combined 124 games for the Diamondbacks where he continued to struggle with his health. He retired after the 2014 season.

Hall of Fame?

Eric Chavez was a sneaky star player for much of the 2000s. He won six Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Somehow, he never made an All Star team despite receiving MVP votes every year from 2002-2005.

There is no question that injuries and a premature decline robbed him of any chance at Cooperstown. At the same time, even his 7-year peak falls well short of the average mark for Hall of Fame third baseman.

Chavez is likely to be one-and-done on the Hall of Fame ballot.

18. Rafael Furcal

JAWS: 35.1 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

A native of Loma de Cabrera, Dominican Republic, Rafael Furcal signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in November, 1996. At first glance, Furcal’s diminutive frame (he’s listed at 5’8″) obscured his tremendous physical talent. A switch-hitter with explosive speed, and arm strength, Furcal developed into an impressive multi-faceted contributor.

By 1999, his age-21 season, Furcal was rated #60 on Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects. A strong year across both class-A levels saw his stock rise to #8 the following year.

In 2000, the Braves were coming off their fifth straight division title, and a World Series defeat at the hands of the Yankees. For a contending team in desperate need of a shortstop, Furcal was a revelation. He forced his way to the big leagues in April despite no experience in the high minors. Furcal won the Rookie of the Year on the strength of league-average hitting, elite base-running, and strong defense. The Braves playoff streak continued.

Finding His Footing

Furcal’s offensive production regressed following his Rookie of the Year campaign. In 2001-2002, he was a well below-average hitter at 82 OPS+. Solid defense and base-running ensured he remained an acceptable starting shortstop, but the overall package was decidedly underwhelming. In the meantime, the Braves kept their streak of division titles alive.

From 2003-2005, Furcal leveled out his production. Consistently improved control of the strike zone allowed him to post average offensive numbers at .285/.348/.429, 101 OPS+. The defense and base running that established his foundation now propped the overall package up to star level at an average of 4.9 bWAR during this stretch. In 2003, was an N.L. All Star, and received MVP votes, for the first time.

The Braves won the N.L. East title in each of Furcal’s six seasons with the club. For all their regular season success, Atlanta only made it past the NLDS once in those years, and never made the World Series. Furcal hit free agency after the 2005 season.

Dodger Deal

In December, 2005, Furcal signed a 3-year, $39 million contract to play shortstop for the Dodgers. In 2006, Furcal delivered a performance in line with his recent averages at 4.4 bWAR, helping the Dodgers win the Wild Card in the process.

2007 was his worst season in six years. In 2008, he was excellent when healthy, but played just 36 regular season games. L.A. won the N.L. West anyway. Furcal returned in time for a run to the NLCS.

Furcal hit the open market again after 2008. He opted to sign another three-year contract to stay with the Dodgers. He averaged 3.8 bWAR in 2009-2010. The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Phillies in five games for the second straight year in 2009. In 2010, Furcal missed most of May, and August, but was productive enough when healthy to make the All Star team.

Unexpected Glory

A miserable start to 2011 for Furcal, and the Dodgers, resulted in a deadline deal to the Cardinals. When Furcal joined the Cardinals, the team was clinging to hope at 57-52. A seemingly rejuvenated Furcal returned to form over the final 50 games, providing a needed boost. The Cardinals won 90 games, and the N.L. Wild Card.

By the time October hit, Furcal had cemented himself as the every day shortstop and leadoff hitter for the Red Birds. Although he struggled overall during the playoffs, the Cardinals defied all the odds by defeating three teams with 96 or more wins to win the World Series.

The End

Following the World Series, Furcal re-upped for two more years with St. Louis. A hot start in 2012 earned him his third, and final, All Star selection. Tommy John surgery ended his 2013 in spring training.

At age 36, he battled his way back for a nine-game cameo with the Marlins in 2014. The following year he played seven minor league games in the Royals system before retiring.

Hall of Fame?

Rafael Furcal was a three-time All Star who also has a Rookie of the Year and World Series ring to his credit. He was an exciting player to watch. He was also a winner who played on nine playoff teams.

Like Chavez, Furcal will ultimately fall short of enshrinement in Cooperstown. He neither meets the peak, nor longevity requirements of the Hall of Fame. Also like Chavez, he was talented, well-rounded player who had a memorable career.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Josh Beckett

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

20. Josh Beckett

JAWS: 33.4 (61.5 Average HOF SP)

Josh Beckett was drafted 2nd overall by the Florida Marlins out of Spring High School in Texas in 1999. The hype around Josh Beckett, the prospect, was tremendous. As a 6’5″ flamethrower from Texas, Beckett was anointed as the heir apparent to the throne previously occupied by Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan.

Baseball America immediately ranked Beckett as the 19th best prospect in the game. Beckett was excellent in his professional debut at Low-A, and jumped to 3rd in Baseball America’s 2001 list. When he torched High-A and Double-A en route to an impressive four-game big league debut, he was recognized as the top prospect in the game heading into 2002.

Beckett made the opening day starting rotation in 2002. Just 22, Beckett was the youngest, and arguably most precocious talent among an impressive group of young players. The Marlins won just 79 games, but the experience gained across the roster would pay dividends.

2003: An Improbable Run

The 2003 Marlins would continue to be carried by a group of future Franchise Phenoms. Beckett was joined by first baseman Derrek Lee, second baseman Luis Castillo, and third baseman Mike Lowell in an impressive homegrown core. The Marlins also made a number of significant changes to their roster heading into 2003. The addition of future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez as a free agent transformed the every day lineup. Speedy leadoff man Juan Pierre was acquired from Colorado. Rookie phenom Dontrelle Willis was a revelation in the rotation.

91 wins was good enough for the Marlins to win the N.L. Wild Card in 2003. Although he missed a hanful of starts for the second straight year, by the time the calendar hit October, Josh Beckett was regarded as Florida’s ace.

Beckett was out-dueled by San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt in the opening game of the NLDS. Florida rebounded to win the next three games– including two one-run wins– to advance to the NLCS against the Cubs.

Beckett again started the series opener. This time, he was battered by a strong Cubs lineup. The Marlins offense picked up the slack. An 11th inning homer by Lowell secured the opener. The Cubs took the next three games to jump out to a seemingly insurmountable 3-1 series lead.

Game five in Florida was a rematch of game one with Beckett opposed by Carlos Zambrano. This time it was all Josh Beckett. The budding ace went the distance, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out 11. Florida won 4-0 to stay alive.

Game six in Chicago was destined to be etched into baseball lore. Down 3-0 in the 8th, the Marlins– aided by fate— broke through for eight runs to even the series.

Game seven in Chicago was a slug fest early. A three-run top of the 5th put Florida ahead 6-5. Jack McKeon turned to Beckett– on just two days– rest to preserve the lead. Beckett worked four innings, allowing just a solo homer to pinch hitter Troy O’Leary in the 7th before handing the ball to closer Ugueth Urbina to nail down the win.

2003 World Series Champions

The 2003 World Series pitted the Marlins against the undisputed powerhouse of the day, the New York Yankees. The Marlins managed a split of the first two games in New York. Beckett was excellent in game three, allowing two runs over 7.1 innings while striking out 10. Unfortunately, future Hall of Famer Mike Mussina was better, and the Yankees won 6-1 to take the series lead.

Florida won games four and five by a combined three runs to retake the series lead. The series returned to New York for a game six showdown between Beckett and one of the Yankees all-time greats, Andy Pettitte. Beckett was masterful. He went the distance, scattering just five hits and two walks while striking out nine. In hostile territory, Josh Beckett shutout the New York Yankees, and the Marlins captured the second world championship in franchise history. Josh Beckett was voted World Series MVP.

2004-2005

Following the October glory of 2003, Beckett and the Marlins remained strong, but couldn’t quite recreate the magic. The Marlins won 83 games and missed the playoffs in both 2004-2005. For his part, Beckett averaged 168 innings of 3.57 ERA/113 ERA+.

With their championship core either gone, aging, or becoming more expensive, the Marlins elected to retool after 2005. In November, they traded Beckett and Lowell to the Boston Red Sox for a package headlined by another future Marlins great, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez.

Red Sox Nation

Entering his age 26 season, Josh Beckett already had a World Series MVP to his credit. His arrival in Boston carried lofty expectations for one of baseball’s most rabid fan bases.

The adjustment to the American League did not go smoothly. Although Beckett set career highs in innings (204.2) and wins (16) for the 2006 Red Sox, his 5.01 ERA was also the worst of his career. The Red Sox finished third in the A.L. East, and missed the playoffs.

Delivering on the Promise

In 2007, Josh Beckett followed the worst season of his young career with the best. Beckett led the A.L. in wins (20) and FIP (3.08) as the ace of a Red Sox club that won 96 games, and the division crown. Beckett made his first All Star team, finished second in the Cy Young race, and received MVP votes for the only time in his career.

In the 2007 post season, Josh Beckett did exactly what he was brought to Boston to do– deliver a championship.

In the opening game of the ALDS, Beckett scattered four hits while striking out eight to shutout the Angels. Boston swept the series.

In game one of the ALCS, Beckett held Cleveland to two runs over six innings to earn the win. The Indians shocked the world by taking the next three games to put Boston on the brink of the elimination. With their season on the line, Josh Beckett delivered again. In Cleveland for game five, Beckett allowed one run while striking out 11 over eight innings to keep the Red Sox alive. When the series returned home, the Red Sox throttled the upstart Indians to punch their ticket to the fall classic for the second time in four years. Josh Beckett was the ALCS MVP.

The 2007 World Series started in Boston with Josh Beckett on the mound for the Red Sox against the Colorado Rockies. Beckett allowed one run over seven innings while striking out nine for his fourth win of the post season. The Red Sox swept the Rockies to win the 7th championship in franchise history.

Red Sox Revelry

The years following the 2007 championship were a mixed bag for Beckett and the Red Sox. From 2008-2011, Beckett averaged 177 innings, 12 wins, 3.98 ERA, 113 ERA+, and 3.3 bWAR. He sandwiched All Star seasons in 2009 and 2011 with arguably the worst season of his career in 2010. The Red Sox averaged 92+ wins, but finished with just two Wild Card berths, and zero pennants to show for it.

In 2012, the Red Sox limped through a disappointing mess of a season. The infamous Chicken and Beer Scandal of 2011 had already claimed casualties from the Boston brain trust with Francona and G.M. Theo Epstein run out of town at season’s end. Just 53-51 at the end of July, things unraveled quickly. By August 25, the team had fallen to 60-67. Beckett was unceremoniously shipped to the Dodgers along with fellow stars Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez in a massive salary dump.

Hollywood

From 2012-2014, Beckett was mostly respectable (when available) for the Dodgers. In 35 total starts, he posted 3.39 ERA/106 ERA+. The Dodgers won N.L. West titles in 2013-2014, but injuries ended Beckett’s seasons early both years and he never appeared in a playoff game for the team. Beckett retired after the 2014 season.

Hall of Fame?

Josh Beckett’s career was, at times, everything from brilliant to frustrating and ultimately, short-lived. Over the course of his stints in Florida and Boston, Beckett often seemed to be either a brilliant revelation, or an exasperating disappointment, depending on the moment.

By his late-20s, his supreme talent, and developing resume, gave Beckett more than a puncher’s chance at the Hall of Fame. Instead, Josh Beckett was out of baseball by 35.

For all of the unrealized potential, Josh Beckett will be remembered. He will be remembered as an ace on two championship teams for two different organizations. He will be remembered for what he was: one of the best post season pitchers of the 2000s. He will be remembered for what he wasn’t: a true all-time great– a Hall of Famer.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (11-15)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:  

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

15.  Lance Berkman

JAWS:  45.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Lance Berkman was born and raised in the Texas Triangle.  A graduate of Canyon High School in New Braunfels, TX northeast of San Antonio, Berkman played his college ball in Houston at Rice University.  The Houston Astros selected Berkman 16th overall in the 1997 draft.  A Baseball America Top-100 Prospect from 1998-2000, Berkman advanced quickly through Houston’s minor league system.  He made his big league debut in July, 1999.

A switch-hitter with power and patience, Berkman quickly established himself as one of the top hitters in the National League.  In 12 seasons with the Astros, Berkman hit .296/.410/.594, 146 OPS+.  He led the league in doubles in 2001 (55) and 2008 (46) and RBI in 2002 (128).  

Berkman contributed to four Astros playoff teams including the 2005 National League Champions.  He was the best player by bWAR on the 2001 N.L. Central Champions, and the 2004 N.L. Wild Card winner.

With the team struggling in 2010, the Astros traded Berkman to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  Serving primarily as a DH, Berkman helped New York secure the Wild Card spot.

Berkman signed with the St. Louis Cardinals heading into 2011.  It would turn out to be one of the best offensive seasons of his career.  The 2011 Cardinals turned a Wild Card berth into the 12th World Series championship in franchise history.  Berkman was a driving force in their victory over the Texas Rangers, hitting .423/.516/.577 with nine runs and five RBI in the seven-game series.

The Cardinals won the Wild Card again in 2012, but Berkman played just 32 games as injuries took their toll.  He finished his career with the Texas Rangers in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Lance Berkman was a marvelous all around player during his 15-year career.  With a career line of .293/.406/.537, 144 OPS+, Berkman was clearly one of the most dominant hitters of his era.  He was also a versatile defensive player who played at least 166 games at all three outfield spots as well as first base during his career.

He was a six-time All Star who received MVP votes in seven seasons including third-place finishes in 2002 and 2006.

In his first year on the ballot, it is unclear how the voters will treat Berkman.  He spent much of his career surrounded by fellow Hall of Fame caliber talents.  As a result, it is possible that he was underappreciated during his career.

Berkman ranks as the 20th best left fielder by JAWS.  His career 144 OPS+ puts him well above the average for Hall of Fame left fielders.  Minimal defensive value, and a comparatively short career, are probably enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.  

On a loaded ballot, it’s possible Berkman fails to achieve the 5% needed to remain eligible beyond this year.  He probably deserves better than that, but either way, it’s hard to see him standing out among the other stellar hitters on the ballot at this time.  

14.  Andy Pettitte

JAWS:  47.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Andy Pettitte was a 1990 graduate of Deer Park High School in Texas.  The New York Yankees selected him as a draft-and-follow candidate in the 22nd round that June.  Pettitte enrolled in San Jacinto College in Houston and showed enough in the spring of 1991 that the Yankees signed him that May.  Pettitte climbed methodically through the Yankees system. 

By 1995, Pettitte was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.  He made his debut that season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting, and helping New York to the Wild Card. 

The Yankees made the playoffs every season from 1995-2003.  With Pettitte providing a steady presence in their rotation, New York won the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000.  Pettite finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young four times during this period.

After a tough loss to the Marlins in the 2003 World Series, Pettitte became a free agent.  Entering his age-32 season, Pettitte returned home to pitch for the Houston Astros.  From 2004-2006 with the Astros, Pettitte was one of the best pitchers in the National League.  He helped the team to Wild Card berths in 2004-2005, and the National League pennant in 2005.  

After the 2006 season, Pettitte returned to the Yankees.  He spent most of the next seven years pitching for the Yankees, although he sat out the 2011 season entirely.  Pettitte pitched for four more Yankees playoff teams during this stretch, and won his fifth World Series in 2009.

Hall of Fame?

Andy Pettitte finished his 18-year career with a record of 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, and 3.74 FIP.  He was a three-time All Star who finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting five times.  

In his first year on the ballot, Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy is probably the dividing mark for the members of the storied Yankees dynasty of that era.  While Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are no doubt first-ballot Hall of Famers, the team’s success did little for the candidacies of Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, both of whom have already fallen off the ballot. 

Pettitte is pretty clearly in the middle of those five.  He will surely show better than Posada or Williams, but won’t achieve the same type of perhaps unanimous support as Jeter or Rivera.  

Pettitte falls considerably short of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher.  He is probably one of the top-100 starters in history, but that hardly ensures enshrinement in Cooperstown.  

My gut feeling is that history will struggle with how to properly view Pettitte’s career.  At different times, he was both one of the best pitchers in the game, and highly overrated.  There is little doubt that if he had played for another organization, his resume would fall short as his win-loss record and postseason exploits are pillars of his case.  At the same time, how many of the five Yankees championships he helped secure would have been won without him?  

Of course, we have not even mentioned Pettitte’s admitted use of Human Growth Hormone in the middle of his career.  For a player whose case is fringy to begin with, his PED use is probably too much to overcome in the current climate.  If he can hang around on the ballot for a full ten-year stretch, it is possible that changing views on both PED’s, and the modern starting pitcher, could help his chances in the long run.  For now, it’s hard to imagine him getting in any time soon.

13.  Gary Sheffield

JAWS:  49.3 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Gary Sheffield was born and raised in Tampa, Florida.  A 1986 graduate of Hillsborough High School, Sheffield was drafted sixth overall by the Milwaukee Brewers.  Originally a shortstop, Sheffield proved to be a highly advanced offensive player in his ascension through the Brewers system.  He made his big league debut late in 1988 at just 19.

The club shifted him to third base, in the big leagues, and outside of a three-win season in 1990, Sheffield struggled through most of his time with the Brewers.   By the end of the 1991 season, his career OPS+ was 95 while averaging just 90 games in his three full seasons.

In Spring Training, 1992 the Brewers traded Sheffield to the San Diego Padres.  With a clean start in a new organization, Sheffield thrived.  He won the N.L. batting title in 1992 with a line of .330/.385/.580, 168 OPS+.  In 1993, the Padres struggled, Sheffield slowed, and the All Star third baseman was traded to the Florida Marlins for a package including future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman.

Sheffield spent more time with the Marlins that anywhere else in his career.  The Marlins moved him to the outfield where he would remain for the rest of his career.  From 1993-1998, he hit .288/.426/.543, 156 OPS+ and produced 13.2 bWAR.  He led the N.L. in OBP (.465) and OPS+ (189) in 1996. 

An expansion team in 1993, the Marlins struggled to find their footing until 1997.  That year they won 92 games and the N.L. Wild Card en route to the World Series.  As the team’s best hitter in the regular season as well as the playoffs, no one played a larger role in Florida’s first World Series championship than Gary Sheffield.

Marlins ownership infamously tore down their championship core heading into 1998.  Sheffield was traded to the Dodgers as part of a massive package that temporarily resulted in Mike Piazza joining the Marlins.  

From 1998-2001 in Los Angeles, Sheffield remained one of the best hitters in baseball.  He posted a .312/.424/.573, 160 OPS+ line producing 17.0 bWAR.  The Dodgers never made the postseason during Sheffield’s tenure and traded him to the Braves before the 2002 season.

Sheffield posted 151 OPS+ over his two seasons in Atlanta.  The 2002-2003 Braves had nearly identical seasons winning 101 games, the N.L. East title, and ultimately losing in the first round of the playoffs.

A free agent after the 2003 season, Sheffield signed with the New York Yankees.  From 2004-2006 he produced 135 OPS+ and was part of three straight A.L. East championships.

After he was derailed by injuries in 2006, the Yankees traded him to the Detroit Tigers.  Primarily a DH during his two seasons in Detroit, Sheffield was still an above-average hitter, but had slowed considerably.  The Tigers released him prior to the 2009 season as the slugger sat with 499 career homers.

Sheffield quickly signed with the New York Mets.  He played 100 games in the final season of his career, hitting 10 homers to give him a career total of 509.

Hall of Fame?

In his remarkable 22-year career, Gary Sheffield hit .292/.393/.514, 140 OPS+.  His 509 career home runs rank 26th all-time.  Sheffield was a nine-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes seven times including three seasons in which he finished second or third (1992, 2003, 2004).

Sheffield ranks as the 23rd best right fielder in history by JAWS.  Although he ranks above 11 Hall of Famers at the position, he stands little chance of induction at this time.  

In 2004, Sheffield admitted to steroid use as part of the BALCO investigation.  Players with better statistical resumes who have been linked to steroid use have failed to secure the support necessary for election.  Like Pettitte, this reality is probably too much for Sheffield to overcome. 

Now in his fifth year of eligibility, Sheffield has some time for the ballot, and sentiment, to shift in his favor.  After securing just 11% of the vote in 2018, he may have too far to go in too short a time.

12.  Sammy Sosa

JAWS:  51.2 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Sammy Sosa was born and raised in San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic.  He signed as an amateur free agent with the Texas Rangers in July, 1985.  As a young player, Sosa was wiry strong and explosive, but raw.  His tantalizing physical tools allowed him to climb through the Rangers system.  Despite the obvious flaws in his game, notably a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, Sosa made his big league debut with Texas at 20.

That same season, the Rangers used Sosa as part of a package to land White Sox Franchise Phenom Harold Baines at the trade deadline.  Sosa continued to flash his physical talent with the White Sox, but failed to make significant progress in refining his game.  Sosa was essentially a replacement-level player during his time with the White Sox. 

Prior to the 1992 season, the Sox made a decision that would alter the fate of both Chicago franchises.  They traded Sammy Sosa to the Cubs as the headline piece for All Star outfielder George Bell.  At 32, Bell had just two seasons left in the big leagues while the 23-year-old Sosa would go on to become one of the best players in Cubs history.

Sosa steadily improved during his early years with the Cubs, settling in as an above-average hitter by 1993.  In 1995, Sosa began a streak of nine straight seasons in which he would received MVP votes.  He was a 30/30 player in both 1993 and 1995.  He hit 40 homers for the first time in 1996.

 Everything changed for Sammy Sosa, and Major League Baseball, in 1998.  During that famed summer, Sosa and Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire embarked on their epic chase of Roger Maris‘s single-season home run record.  McGwire finished with 70 to set the new record, but Sosa also broke the old record with 66 of his own.  Sosa led the league in runs (134) and RBI (158).  The Cubs won the N.L. Wild Card, and Sosa the MVP.

Sosa remained one of the most feared sluggers in baseball for years.  He hit 63 homers in 1999, and 64 in 2001, making him the only player in history with three 60-homer seasons.  When the Cubs won the N.L. Central in 2003, Sosa was still their best hitter.  

In 13 seasons with the Cubs, Sosa hit .284/.358/.569, 139 OPS+, and 545 homers.

His final years in Chicago were marred by a suspension for corking his bat, increased suspicion about steroid usage, and alienation of the organization he had carried for a decade. 

Sosa was traded to Baltimore before the 2006 season.  He sat out 2007.  He then returned to hit 21 homers for the Rangers in 2008 allowing him to eclipse the 600 mark for his career.

Hall of Fame?

In his 18-year career, Sammy Sosa hit .273/.344/.534, 128 OPS+.  His 609 career homers rank ninth all-time.  Sosa was a seven-time All Star who won six Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes nine times.  He finished second in 2001, and won the award during his incredible 1998 season.

Sosa ranks as the 18th best right fielder by JAWS, five spots ahead of Sheffield, and above two more Hall of Famers.  Despite his on-paper advantages, he has actually fared worse than Sheffield up to this point in the process.

Even more so than Sheffield, Sosa is a poster boy for the steroid era.  Despite suspicions that engulfed the late stages of his career, and a June, 2009 New York Times report claiming he tested positive in 2003, Sosa has remained evasive on the subject in retirement.  The issue remains the cause of friction with Cubs ownership to this day.

Now in his seventh year on the ballot, Sosa has even less time for things to swing in his favor than Sheffield.  He earned just 7.8% of the vote in 2018.

11.  Todd Helton

JAWS:  53.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Todd Helton was the 8th overall pick by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Tennessee in the 1995 draft.

He played his entire 17-year career with the Rockies.  His career line of .316/.414/.539, 133 OPS+, and 61.2 bWAR makes him the best player in franchise history.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Todd Helton’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

Todd Helton was a five-time All Star who won four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.  

Helton has a strong case for enshrinement in Cooperstown.  By JAWS, Helton ranks as the 15th best first baseman in history.  While that places him just below the lofty average mark for the position, he is surrounded by Hall of Famers on the list.

2019 is Helton’s first year on the ballot.  Now in his ninth year on the ballot, Larry Walker’s results provide a potential guide for the way Helton’s candidacy may be viewed.  Although modern metrics strip away ballpark context, baseball writers have long struggled to separate the Coors Field effect when evaluating Rockies players for awards.  Hitters are often over-penalized and pitchers under-rewarded. 

Walker is running out of time in his bid to be elected by the writers, but Helton figures to benefit in the long run as the writers grapple with Walker’s candidacy.  At some point, these two players will force BBWAA members to determine what, exactly, a Rockies hitter would have to do to earn their vote.  How preposterous do the numbers have to be?

In my world, both Helton and Walker are Hall of Fame players.  I am cautiously optimistic that they will each be recognized as such at some point in the future.