Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.
Check out the first piece in the series. Players 21-25 by JAWS.
20. Miguel Tejada
JAWS: 41.9 (55.0 Average HOF SS)
Miguel Tejada was born and raised in Bani, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Oakland Athletics in July, 1993. Tejada came stateside in 1995 and quickly established himself as a well-rounded shortstop prospect in his age-21 season. He was a Baseball America Top-100 prospect for three straight seasons, including back-to-back top-10 rankings in 1997 and 1998.
In seven seasons with Oakland, Tejada hit .270/.331/.460 for 107 OPS+. From 1998-2003, he averaged 3.7 bWAR. In 2002, he won the American League MVP on the strength of a .308/.354/.508, 128 OPS+ line with 34 homers and 131 RBI.
The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series. With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. After the 2003 season, the A’s allowed Tejada to depart via free agency to the Baltimore Orioles.
Tejada’s stretch in Baltimore from 2004-2007 was the best of his career. He averaged .311/.362/.501, 124 OPS+, and 5.0 bWAR. He made the All Star team three times, and won two Silver Sluggers. The Orioles had a losing record each season. They dealt Tejada to Houston after the 2007 season.
Tejada made the All Star team both seasons in Houston, but his production began to slip. He averaged 101 OPS+ and 1.9 bWAR.
From 2010-2011, Tejada bounced around from Baltimore to San Diego, and San Francisco. After missing the 2012 season, Tejada returned for 53 games with Kansas City in 2013, his final stint in the big leagues.
Hall of Fame?
Miguel Tejada was one of the top shortstops in baseball during an era of great shortstops. Tejada was a six-time All Star who won two Silver Sluggers, and the 2002 A.L. MVP.
JAWS ranks him as the top shortstop on the 2019 Ballot in his first year of eligibility. His well-rounded skill set, and incredible durability (he played 162 games every season from 2001-2006), helped him accumulate more career bWAR than Omar Vizquel in 797 fewer games.
Ultimately, Tejada’s statistical case leaves him shy of the Hall of Fame standard at the position. When combined with the cloud of PED evidence surrounding his career, Tejada stands little chance of induction. It is entirely possible that he falls off the ballot after this year.
19. Mariano Rivera
JAWS: 42.5 (32.3 Average HOF RP)
Mariano Rivera was signed as an amateur free agent out of Panama by the New York Yankees in 1990. Rivera excelled during his minor league career in the Yankees system while splitting time between starting and relieving. Rivera made his big league debut at the age of 25 in 1995. Although he started 10 games during his rookie year, Rivera’s destiny was in the bullpen.
Beginning in 1996, Rivera embarked on an incredibly dominant career as a reliever. For the next 18 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera was consistently among the best relievers in the game. His utter dominance in the late innings was a key element of the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
The Yankees made the playoffs 13 straight seasons from 1995-2007 and 17 times in Rivera’s 19 seasons with the club. Rivera was a key piece of five World Series championships (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009).
His legacy in the postseason leaves no doubt about Rivera’s place in baseball history. In 141 career playoff innings across 96 games, Rivera was 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.70 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP. Simply put, if the Yankees handed Mariano Rivera a lead in October, the game was over.
Mariano Rivera finished his career with a record of 82-60, 652 saves, a 2.21 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 205 ERA+ over 1283.2 innings.
Hall of Fame?
In 19 seasons with the New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera carved out his legacy as the greatest closer in baseball history.
Rivera was a 13-time All Star, five-time Rolaids Reliever of the Year, and five-time World Champion. He was the ALCS MVP against Boston in 2003, and the World Series MVP against Atlanta in 1999.
He is baseball’s all-time leader in saves (652) and ERA+ (205).
Rivera ranks second all-time in JAWS among relievers, trailing only Dennis Eckersley whose 12 seasons and 361 games as a starting pitcher hardly makes for an apples to apples comparison.
Rivera appears to be a slam dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer. The only real question seems to be whether or not he will make history one more time as the first unanimous Hall of Famer.
18. Fred McGriff
JAWS: 44.3 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)
Fred McGriff was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1981 graduate of Jefferson High School, McGriff was selected in the 9th round by the New York Yankees. After the 1982 season, the 19-year-old McGriff was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. McGriff had a cup of coffee with Toronto in 1986, and was in the majors for good in 1987.
From 1987-1990, McGriff averaged .278/.390/.531, 154 OPS+, and 4.8 bWAR. He led the league in homers (36) and OPS+ (165) en route to a Silver Slugger award in 1989.
In one of the most fascinating trades in baseball history, the Blue Jays shipped McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter in December, 1990. The deal worked out famously for the Blue Jays while McGriff and Fernandez both had All Star seasons in San Diego.
In parts of three seasons with the Padres, McGriff averaged .281/.388/.519 and 149 OPS+. He led the National League with 35 homers in 1992, earning All Star and Silver Slugger honors in the process.
With the Padres in the midst of a brutal 1993 season, McGriff was traded to the Atlanta Braves in July. He remained with Atlanta through 1997, helping to propel the Braves to four division championships, and the 1995 World Series championship. In parts of five seasons in Atlanta, McGriff hit .293/.369/.516 and 128 OPS+. He was a three-time All Star for the Braves.
Following the 1997 season, the Braves sold McGriff to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays who were heading into their inaugural season as an expansion franchise. Now in his mid-30s, McGriff remained an above-average, and sometimes excellent, hitter in his home town. He made his fifth, and final, All Star team in 2000.
At the 2001 trade deadline, Tampa dealt McGriff to the Chicago Cubs. He remained in Chicago through the 2002 season. McGriff spent 2003 with the Dodgers, and wrapped up his career back in Tampa for 27 games in 2004.
Hall of Fame?
In 19 seasons, Fred McGriff hit .284/.377/.509, good for 134 OPS+. His 493 career homers fall just shy of the magical 500 threshold. A five-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger, McGriff was one of the most feared sluggers of his era.
Unfortunately for McGriff, much of his career was played during the peak of baseball’s steroid era. While McGriff has never been seriously linked to PED use, it is difficult to find proper context for his numbers. As a result of the high offensive bar at the position, he ranks 31st among first basemen by JAWS. More than a third of the players who rank above him are from the same generation.
2019 represents McGriff’s 10th, and final, season on the ballot. After earning just 23.2% of the vote in 2018, McGriff seems all but certain to fall short of the required 75% this year. It is fair to wonder whether he might fair better with the Today’s Game Committee in the future.
17. Roy Oswalt
JAWS: 45.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Roy Oswalt was born and raised in Central Mississippi. A graduate of Weir High School, Oswalt played his college ball at Holmes Community College in Ridgeland, MS. The Houston Astros selected him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft out of Holmes.
Despite his small frame, Oswalt used electric stuff to post solid strikeout numbers across the Houston farm system. When he made a quantum leap with his control during the 2000 season, he jumped to #13 on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects. He made his big league debut in 2001.
Oswalt made an immediate impact in Houston working to a 170 ERA+ and fifth place Cy Young finish during his rookie season to help the Astros win the N.L. Central. He helped Houston back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2004 and 2005. In 2005, the Astros won the National League pennant as Oswalt combined with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to form the most dominant starting rotation in franchise history.
In 10 seasons with the Astros, Oswalt went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA, 133 ERA+, and 3.35 FIP. He finished in the top-five in the Cy Young voting five times, and made three All Star teams.
With Houston out of contention in 2010, they traded Oswalt to the Phillies. Oswalt helped pitch the Phillies to consecutive A.L. East titles in 2010-2011.
He signed with the Texas Rangers in May, 2012 and helped them into the Wild Card Game. He finished his career with nine games for the Rockies in 2013.
Hall of Fame?
For much of Roy Oswalt’s 13-year career, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished with a career record of 163-102, 3.36 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 3.37 FIP. He is the greatest pitcher in Astros franchise history.
In his first year on the ballot, it is not entirely clear what kind of support we can expect for Oswalt. I suspect that, ultimately, he was neither durable nor dominant enough to make up for his shortcomings in the other category. Two more years of his top level, or three to four more at his career average, would have made his case considerably more intriguing.
I think it’s possible that Oswalt can hang around on the ballot beyond this year. That’s hardly a certainty given the loaded field he is competing with for the voters’ attention.
16. Jeff Kent
JAWS: 45.6 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)
Jeff Kent was born and raised in Southern California. After graduating from Edison High School in Huntington Beach, he headed north to play his college ball at the University of California, Berkeley. The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Kent in the 20th round in 1989.
Although his defense was regarded with some skepticism by scouts, Kent proved himself to be a polished offensive player in a quick ascent through the Toronto system. He made his big league debut in 1992. After proving himself capable of producing at the big league level, Kent was used as the headliner in an August trade with the Mets that brought David Cone to Toronto. Cone helped pitch Toronto to a World Series title that same season.
In parts of five seasons with the Mets from 1992-1996, Kent averaged 107 OPS+ while playing passable defense at second and third. At the 1996 trade deadline, the Mets used Kent as the key piece in a deal to land All Star second baseman Carlos Baerga from the Indians.
Although the Indians won the A.L. Central in 1996, Kent made minimal impact down the stretch, or in the playoffs. In November, he was traded from Cleveland to San Francisco as part of a package for All Star third baseman Matt Williams.
Entering his age-29 season in 1997, Kent was at a crossroads. He had already been traded three times, each time as the headline piece that landed his former club an All Star in return.
In San Francisco, Kent finally found himself. Paired with Barry Bonds, he began his Giants career with consecutive top-10 MVP finishes in 1997-1998. In 1999 he began a string of three straight All Star selections. In 2000, Kent won the National League MVP with a line of .334/.424/.596, 162 OPS+, and 7.2 bWAR.
With Bonds and Kent, the Giants were in contention every season. They won the N.L. West in 1997 and 2000. They parlayed a 2002 Wild Card berth into the National League pennant. In six seasons with the Giants, Kent averaged 136 OPS+ and 5.2 bWAR. He was a three-time All Star, and won three Silver Sluggers.
After the 2002 season, Kent signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros. He remained a solid hitter, producing 121 OPS+ in two seasons. He helped Houston reach the 2004 NLCS. Kent was an All Star in 2004.
Once again a free agent after 2004, Kent signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. From 2005-2008, he averaged 119 OPS+ and 1.7 bWAR as age sapped his defensive value. He was an All Star for the final time in 2005. He helped the Dodgers to a Wild Card berth in 2006, and the N.L. West title in 2008.
Hall of Fame?
In his 17-year career, Jeff Kent established a legacy as one of the best offensive second basemen in history. Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and the 2000 N.L. MVP.
Kent is now in his sixth year on the ballot. He appears to be hanging by a thread after receiving just 14.5% of the vote last year.
Although he falls short of the JAWS average for second basemen, he ranks higher than eight of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position. Offensively, he is even better. His 123 OPS+ is better than 13 of the 20. He is the all-time leader in home runs by a second baseman.
Despite his offensive prowess, Kent’s defensive track record costs him both in terms of career value produced, and in the minds of the voters. His offensive chops are such that it’s not impossible to imagine him experiencing a late surge, but it seems unlikely.