Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.
20. Josh Beckett
JAWS: 33.4 (61.5 Average HOF SP)
Josh Beckett was drafted 2nd overall by the Florida Marlins out of Spring High School in Texas in 1999. The hype around Josh Beckett, the prospect, was tremendous. As a 6’5″ flamethrower from Texas, Beckett was anointed as the heir apparent to the throne previously occupied by Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan.
Baseball America immediately ranked Beckett as the 19th best prospect in the game. Beckett was excellent in his professional debut at Low-A, and jumped to 3rd in Baseball America’s 2001 list. When he torched High-A and Double-A en route to an impressive four-game big league debut, he was recognized as the top prospect in the game heading into 2002.
Beckett made the opening day starting rotation in 2002. Just 22, Beckett was the youngest, and arguably most precocious talent among an impressive group of young players. The Marlins won just 79 games, but the experience gained across the roster would pay dividends.
2003: An Improbable Run
The 2003 Marlins would continue to be carried by a group of future Franchise Phenoms. Beckett was joined by first baseman Derrek Lee, second baseman Luis Castillo, and third baseman Mike Lowell in an impressive homegrown core. The Marlins also made a number of significant changes to their roster heading into 2003. The addition of future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez as a free agent transformed the every day lineup. Speedy leadoff man Juan Pierre was acquired from Colorado. Rookie phenom Dontrelle Willis was a revelation in the rotation.
91 wins was good enough for the Marlins to win the N.L. Wild Card in 2003. Although he missed a hanful of starts for the second straight year, by the time the calendar hit October, Josh Beckett was regarded as Florida’s ace.
Beckett was out-dueled by San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt in the opening game of the NLDS. Florida rebounded to win the next three games– including two one-run wins– to advance to the NLCS against the Cubs.
Beckett again started the series opener. This time, he was battered by a strong Cubs lineup. The Marlins offense picked up the slack. An 11th inning homer by Lowell secured the opener. The Cubs took the next three games to jump out to a seemingly insurmountable 3-1 series lead.
Game five in Florida was a rematch of game one with Beckett opposed by Carlos Zambrano. This time it was all Josh Beckett. The budding ace went the distance, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out 11. Florida won 4-0 to stay alive.
Game six in Chicago was destined to be etched into baseball lore. Down 3-0 in the 8th, the Marlins– aided by fate— broke through for eight runs to even the series.
Game seven in Chicago was a slug fest early. A three-run top of the 5th put Florida ahead 6-5. Jack McKeon turned to Beckett– on just two days– rest to preserve the lead. Beckett worked four innings, allowing just a solo homer to pinch hitter Troy O’Leary in the 7th before handing the ball to closer Ugueth Urbina to nail down the win.
2003 World Series Champions
The 2003 World Series pitted the Marlins against the undisputed powerhouse of the day, the New York Yankees. The Marlins managed a split of the first two games in New York. Beckett was excellent in game three, allowing two runs over 7.1 innings while striking out 10. Unfortunately, future Hall of Famer Mike Mussina was better, and the Yankees won 6-1 to take the series lead.
Florida won games four and five by a combined three runs to retake the series lead. The series returned to New York for a game six showdown between Beckett and one of the Yankees all-time greats, Andy Pettitte. Beckett was masterful. He went the distance, scattering just five hits and two walks while striking out nine. In hostile territory, Josh Beckett shutout the New York Yankees, and the Marlins captured the second world championship in franchise history. Josh Beckett was voted World Series MVP.
2004-2005
Following the October glory of 2003, Beckett and the Marlins remained strong, but couldn’t quite recreate the magic. The Marlins won 83 games and missed the playoffs in both 2004-2005. For his part, Beckett averaged 168 innings of 3.57 ERA/113 ERA+.
With their championship core either gone, aging, or becoming more expensive, the Marlins elected to retool after 2005. In November, they traded Beckett and Lowell to the Boston Red Sox for a package headlined by another future Marlins great, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez.
Red Sox Nation
Entering his age 26 season, Josh Beckett already had a World Series MVP to his credit. His arrival in Boston carried lofty expectations for one of baseball’s most rabid fan bases.
The adjustment to the American League did not go smoothly. Although Beckett set career highs in innings (204.2) and wins (16) for the 2006 Red Sox, his 5.01 ERA was also the worst of his career. The Red Sox finished third in the A.L. East, and missed the playoffs.
Delivering on the Promise
In 2007, Josh Beckett followed the worst season of his young career with the best. Beckett led the A.L. in wins (20) and FIP (3.08) as the ace of a Red Sox club that won 96 games, and the division crown. Beckett made his first All Star team, finished second in the Cy Young race, and received MVP votes for the only time in his career.
In the 2007 post season, Josh Beckett did exactly what he was brought to Boston to do– deliver a championship.
In the opening game of the ALDS, Beckett scattered four hits while striking out eight to shutout the Angels. Boston swept the series.
In game one of the ALCS, Beckett held Cleveland to two runs over six innings to earn the win. The Indians shocked the world by taking the next three games to put Boston on the brink of the elimination. With their season on the line, Josh Beckett delivered again. In Cleveland for game five, Beckett allowed one run while striking out 11 over eight innings to keep the Red Sox alive. When the series returned home, the Red Sox throttled the upstart Indians to punch their ticket to the fall classic for the second time in four years. Josh Beckett was the ALCS MVP.
The 2007 World Series started in Boston with Josh Beckett on the mound for the Red Sox against the Colorado Rockies. Beckett allowed one run over seven innings while striking out nine for his fourth win of the post season. The Red Sox swept the Rockies to win the 7th championship in franchise history.
Red Sox Revelry
The years following the 2007 championship were a mixed bag for Beckett and the Red Sox. From 2008-2011, Beckett averaged 177 innings, 12 wins, 3.98 ERA, 113 ERA+, and 3.3 bWAR. He sandwiched All Star seasons in 2009 and 2011 with arguably the worst season of his career in 2010. The Red Sox averaged 92+ wins, but finished with just two Wild Card berths, and zero pennants to show for it.
In 2012, the Red Sox limped through a disappointing mess of a season. The infamous Chicken and Beer Scandal of 2011 had already claimed casualties from the Boston brain trust with Francona and G.M. Theo Epstein run out of town at season’s end. Just 53-51 at the end of July, things unraveled quickly. By August 25, the team had fallen to 60-67. Beckett was unceremoniously shipped to the Dodgers along with fellow stars Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez in a massive salary dump.
Hollywood
From 2012-2014, Beckett was mostly respectable (when available) for the Dodgers. In 35 total starts, he posted 3.39 ERA/106 ERA+. The Dodgers won N.L. West titles in 2013-2014, but injuries ended Beckett’s seasons early both years and he never appeared in a playoff game for the team. Beckett retired after the 2014 season.
Hall of Fame?
Josh Beckett’s career was, at times, everything from brilliant to frustrating and ultimately, short-lived. Over the course of his stints in Florida and Boston, Beckett often seemed to be either a brilliant revelation, or an exasperating disappointment, depending on the moment.
By his late-20s, his supreme talent, and developing resume, gave Beckett more than a puncher’s chance at the Hall of Fame. Instead, Josh Beckett was out of baseball by 35.
For all of the unrealized potential, Josh Beckett will be remembered. He will be remembered as an ace on two championship teams for two different organizations. He will be remembered for what he was: one of the best post season pitchers of the 2000s. He will be remembered for what he wasn’t: a true all-time great– a Hall of Famer.