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2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (16-20)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the first piece in the series. Players 21-25 by JAWS.

20. Miguel Tejada

JAWS: 41.9 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Miguel Tejada was born and raised in Bani, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Oakland Athletics in July, 1993. Tejada came stateside in 1995 and quickly established himself as a well-rounded shortstop prospect in his age-21 season. He was a Baseball America Top-100 prospect for three straight seasons, including back-to-back top-10 rankings in 1997 and 1998.

In seven seasons with Oakland, Tejada hit .270/.331/.460 for 107 OPS+. From 1998-2003, he averaged 3.7 bWAR. In 2002, he won the American League MVP on the strength of a .308/.354/.508, 128 OPS+ line with 34 homers and 131 RBI.

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series. With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. After the 2003 season, the A’s allowed Tejada to depart via free agency to the Baltimore Orioles.

Tejada’s stretch in Baltimore from 2004-2007 was the best of his career. He averaged .311/.362/.501, 124 OPS+, and 5.0 bWAR. He made the All Star team three times, and won two Silver Sluggers. The Orioles had a losing record each season. They dealt Tejada to Houston after the 2007 season.

Tejada made the All Star team both seasons in Houston, but his production began to slip. He averaged 101 OPS+ and 1.9 bWAR.

From 2010-2011, Tejada bounced around from Baltimore to San Diego, and San Francisco. After missing the 2012 season, Tejada returned for 53 games with Kansas City in 2013, his final stint in the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

Miguel Tejada was one of the top shortstops in baseball during an era of great shortstops. Tejada was a six-time All Star who won two Silver Sluggers, and the 2002 A.L. MVP.

JAWS ranks him as the top shortstop on the 2019 Ballot in his first year of eligibility. His well-rounded skill set, and incredible durability (he played 162 games every season from 2001-2006), helped him accumulate more career bWAR than Omar Vizquel in 797 fewer games.

Ultimately, Tejada’s statistical case leaves him shy of the Hall of Fame standard at the position. When combined with the cloud of PED evidence surrounding his career, Tejada stands little chance of induction. It is entirely possible that he falls off the ballot after this year.

19. Mariano Rivera

JAWS: 42.5 (32.3 Average HOF RP)

Mariano Rivera was signed as an amateur free agent out of Panama by the New York Yankees in 1990. Rivera excelled during his minor league career in the Yankees system while splitting time between starting and relieving. Rivera made his big league debut at the age of 25 in 1995. Although he started 10 games during his rookie year, Rivera’s destiny was in the bullpen.

Beginning in 1996, Rivera embarked on an incredibly dominant career as a reliever. For the next 18 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera was consistently among the best relievers in the game. His utter dominance in the late innings was a key element of the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The Yankees made the playoffs 13 straight seasons from 1995-2007 and 17 times in Rivera’s 19 seasons with the club. Rivera was a key piece of five World Series championships (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009).

His legacy in the postseason leaves no doubt about Rivera’s place in baseball history. In 141 career playoff innings across 96 games, Rivera was 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.70 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP. Simply put, if the Yankees handed Mariano Rivera a lead in October, the game was over.

Mariano Rivera finished his career with a record of 82-60, 652 saves, a 2.21 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 205 ERA+ over 1283.2 innings.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons with the New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera carved out his legacy as the greatest closer in baseball history.

Rivera was a 13-time All Star, five-time Rolaids Reliever of the Year, and five-time World Champion. He was the ALCS MVP against Boston in 2003, and the World Series MVP against Atlanta in 1999.

He is baseball’s all-time leader in saves (652) and ERA+ (205).

Rivera ranks second all-time in JAWS among relievers, trailing only Dennis Eckersley whose 12 seasons and 361 games as a starting pitcher hardly makes for an apples to apples comparison.

Rivera appears to be a slam dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer. The only real question seems to be whether or not he will make history one more time as the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

18. Fred McGriff

JAWS: 44.3 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Fred McGriff was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1981 graduate of Jefferson High School, McGriff was selected in the 9th round by the New York Yankees. After the 1982 season, the 19-year-old McGriff was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. McGriff had a cup of coffee with Toronto in 1986, and was in the majors for good in 1987.

From 1987-1990, McGriff averaged .278/.390/.531, 154 OPS+, and 4.8 bWAR. He led the league in homers (36) and OPS+ (165) en route to a Silver Slugger award in 1989.

In one of the most fascinating trades in baseball history, the Blue Jays shipped McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter in December, 1990. The deal worked out famously for the Blue Jays while McGriff and Fernandez both had All Star seasons in San Diego.

In parts of three seasons with the Padres, McGriff averaged .281/.388/.519 and 149 OPS+. He led the National League with 35 homers in 1992, earning All Star and Silver Slugger honors in the process.

With the Padres in the midst of a brutal 1993 season, McGriff was traded to the Atlanta Braves in July. He remained with Atlanta through 1997, helping to propel the Braves to four division championships, and the 1995 World Series championship. In parts of five seasons in Atlanta, McGriff hit .293/.369/.516 and 128 OPS+. He was a three-time All Star for the Braves.

Following the 1997 season, the Braves sold McGriff to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays who were heading into their inaugural season as an expansion franchise. Now in his mid-30s, McGriff remained an above-average, and sometimes excellent, hitter in his home town. He made his fifth, and final, All Star team in 2000.

At the 2001 trade deadline, Tampa dealt McGriff to the Chicago Cubs. He remained in Chicago through the 2002 season. McGriff spent 2003 with the Dodgers, and wrapped up his career back in Tampa for 27 games in 2004.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons, Fred McGriff hit .284/.377/.509, good for 134 OPS+. His 493 career homers fall just shy of the magical 500 threshold. A five-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger, McGriff was one of the most feared sluggers of his era.

Unfortunately for McGriff, much of his career was played during the peak of baseball’s steroid era. While McGriff has never been seriously linked to PED use, it is difficult to find proper context for his numbers. As a result of the high offensive bar at the position, he ranks 31st among first basemen by JAWS. More than a third of the players who rank above him are from the same generation.

2019 represents McGriff’s 10th, and final, season on the ballot. After earning just 23.2% of the vote in 2018, McGriff seems all but certain to fall short of the required 75% this year. It is fair to wonder whether he might fair better with the Today’s Game Committee in the future.

17. Roy Oswalt

JAWS: 45.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Oswalt was born and raised in Central Mississippi. A graduate of Weir High School, Oswalt played his college ball at Holmes Community College in Ridgeland, MS. The Houston Astros selected him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft out of Holmes.

Despite his small frame, Oswalt used electric stuff to post solid strikeout numbers across the Houston farm system. When he made a quantum leap with his control during the 2000 season, he jumped to #13 on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects. He made his big league debut in 2001.

Oswalt made an immediate impact in Houston working to a 170 ERA+ and fifth place Cy Young finish during his rookie season to help the Astros win the N.L. Central. He helped Houston back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2004 and 2005. In 2005, the Astros won the National League pennant as Oswalt combined with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to form the most dominant starting rotation in franchise history.

In 10 seasons with the Astros, Oswalt went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA, 133 ERA+, and 3.35 FIP. He finished in the top-five in the Cy Young voting five times, and made three All Star teams.

With Houston out of contention in 2010, they traded Oswalt to the Phillies. Oswalt helped pitch the Phillies to consecutive A.L. East titles in 2010-2011.

He signed with the Texas Rangers in May, 2012 and helped them into the Wild Card Game. He finished his career with nine games for the Rockies in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

For much of Roy Oswalt’s 13-year career, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished with a career record of 163-102, 3.36 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 3.37 FIP. He is the greatest pitcher in Astros franchise history.

In his first year on the ballot, it is not entirely clear what kind of support we can expect for Oswalt. I suspect that, ultimately, he was neither durable nor dominant enough to make up for his shortcomings in the other category. Two more years of his top level, or three to four more at his career average, would have made his case considerably more intriguing.

I think it’s possible that Oswalt can hang around on the ballot beyond this year. That’s hardly a certainty given the loaded field he is competing with for the voters’ attention.

16. Jeff Kent

JAWS: 45.6 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Jeff Kent was born and raised in Southern California. After graduating from Edison High School in Huntington Beach, he headed north to play his college ball at the University of California, Berkeley. The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Kent in the 20th round in 1989.

Although his defense was regarded with some skepticism by scouts, Kent proved himself to be a polished offensive player in a quick ascent through the Toronto system. He made his big league debut in 1992. After proving himself capable of producing at the big league level, Kent was used as the headliner in an August trade with the Mets that brought David Cone to Toronto. Cone helped pitch Toronto to a World Series title that same season.

In parts of five seasons with the Mets from 1992-1996, Kent averaged 107 OPS+ while playing passable defense at second and third. At the 1996 trade deadline, the Mets used Kent as the key piece in a deal to land All Star second baseman Carlos Baerga from the Indians.

Although the Indians won the A.L. Central in 1996, Kent made minimal impact down the stretch, or in the playoffs. In November, he was traded from Cleveland to San Francisco as part of a package for All Star third baseman Matt Williams.

Entering his age-29 season in 1997, Kent was at a crossroads. He had already been traded three times, each time as the headline piece that landed his former club an All Star in return.

In San Francisco, Kent finally found himself. Paired with Barry Bonds, he began his Giants career with consecutive top-10 MVP finishes in 1997-1998. In 1999 he began a string of three straight All Star selections. In 2000, Kent won the National League MVP with a line of .334/.424/.596, 162 OPS+, and 7.2 bWAR.

With Bonds and Kent, the Giants were in contention every season. They won the N.L. West in 1997 and 2000. They parlayed a 2002 Wild Card berth into the National League pennant. In six seasons with the Giants, Kent averaged 136 OPS+ and 5.2 bWAR. He was a three-time All Star, and won three Silver Sluggers.

After the 2002 season, Kent signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros. He remained a solid hitter, producing 121 OPS+ in two seasons. He helped Houston reach the 2004 NLCS. Kent was an All Star in 2004.

Once again a free agent after 2004, Kent signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. From 2005-2008, he averaged 119 OPS+ and 1.7 bWAR as age sapped his defensive value. He was an All Star for the final time in 2005. He helped the Dodgers to a Wild Card berth in 2006, and the N.L. West title in 2008.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Jeff Kent established a legacy as one of the best offensive second basemen in history. Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and the 2000 N.L. MVP.

Kent is now in his sixth year on the ballot. He appears to be hanging by a thread after receiving just 14.5% of the vote last year.

Although he falls short of the JAWS average for second basemen, he ranks higher than eight of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position. Offensively, he is even better. His 123 OPS+ is better than 13 of the 20. He is the all-time leader in home runs by a second baseman.

Despite his offensive prowess, Kent’s defensive track record costs him both in terms of career value produced, and in the minds of the voters. His offensive chops are such that it’s not impossible to imagine him experiencing a late surge, but it seems unlikely.

Omar Vizquel: Hall of Famer?

JAWS: 36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Omar Vizquel was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Seattle Mariners in 1984. A slightly-built switch-hitting shortstop, Vizquel’s glove work carried him through the minor leagues. He made his big league debut with Seattle in 1989.

As the primary shortstop in Seattle from 1989-1993, Vizquel was a consistently above-average defender who often struggled mightily at the plate. He won his first Gold Glove in his final season with the Mariners. After the 1993 season, Vizquel was traded to the Cleveland Indians.

In Cleveland, Vizquel’s skill set proved particularly valuable. The Indians teams of that era were marked by incredibly deep offensive lineups and suspect pitching. They could afford to carry Vizquel’s bat in exchange for his steadying presence at shortstop.

From 1995-2001, the Indians made the playoffs six times in seven seasons with Vizquel at shortstop. They won the American League in 1995 and 1997, but were defeated by the Braves and Marlins respectively in the World Series.

By 1996, Vizquel’s offense had developed to the point where he would often flirt with league-average production. Never much of a power hitter, Vizquel managed to leverage good contact skills, control of the strike zone, and improved base running into some decent offensive years along the way.

Vizquel spent 2005-2008 with the San Francisco Giants. By the end of his Giants tenure, he was 40 years old and clearly declining. His defense was still solid– if not what it had been at his peak– but his offense had regressed to the point where he was no longer playable every day. He spent 2009-2012 with the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays before retiring after his age-45 season.

Hall of Fame?

Vizquel is one of the most interesting cases among the current candidates. He received 37% of the vote in his first year on the ballot last year, so there is clearly some staying power here.

In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter. He was an above-average offensive player just twice. His entire Hall of Fame case rests on the defensive side of the ledger.

Searching For Context

Only eight players have won more career Gold Gloves than Vizquel’s 11. Of those eight, only Jim Kaat (16x at pitcher) and Keith Hernandez (11x at first base) are not in the Hall of Fame.

By bWAR, Vizquel is the ninth-best defender of all-time. The great Orioles shortstop Mark Belanger is the only player rated higher than Vizquel who is not in the Hall of Fame.

Vizquel Among Shortstops

Proponents of Vizquel’s candidacy say that his defensive prowess is more than enough for him to be considered a Hall of Famer. Their argument typically centers around the number of Gold Gloves, indelible memories of highlight plays, and the reality that other elite defensive shortstops such as Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio, and Rabbit Maranville were elected with similarly unimpressive offensive numbers.

Omar Vizquel is not Ozzie Smith. This is the most common comparison drawn by Vizquel’s supporters, and it simply doesn’t work. Smith is the preeminent defensive player in baseball history and is ultimately without peer. Smith was also the better hitter at a career 87 OPS+, and a superior base runner. Vizquel doesn’t have to be Ozzie Smith to be worthy of the Hall of Fame, but that false equivalency is an important point to correct.

Two comparisons that actually work out pretty well for Vizquel are with Aparicio and Maranville. All three produced identical 82 OPS+ marks for their respective careers. Aparicio actually claims a rather significant offensive edge as a result of being a consistently above-average base runner. Vizquel and Maranville rank as similarly average base runners. The three are also very similar in most modern interpretations of their defensive play.

The closest active comparison to Vizquel is probably Los Angeles Angels shortstop, Andrelton Simmons. Simmons will enter his age-29 season as the premier defensive shortstop in baseball, and a career 92 OPS+ hitter. Simmons will almost certainly accrue more defensive value than Vizquel by the time his career has concluded, and could potentially accomplish that feat as soon as this coming season. Unless you believe that Simmons is a slam dunk Hall of Famer in his own right, it probably makes sense to pump the breaks on Vizquel.

Conclusion

I’m generally not a “Small Hall” kind of guy. I prefer to err on the side of generosity. I think the Hall of Fame as an institution benefits from honoring a wide variety of players.

In the end, I can’t quite get there on Vizquel. He would be among the 2-3 least impressive shortstops in the Hall of Fame if he were selected. If you merely aspire to find candidates that clear the lowest bar at their position, you can find dozens of players who could be included. I don’t necessarily believe that any new Hall of Famer has to raise the average bar for his position either, but Vizquel is too far from that mark for me.

I always admired Vizquel’s skills. There are a handful of his defensive plays that I can recall vividly from memory, and I can’t say that for more than maybe a couple of dozen players in history. At the same time, I never felt like Omar Vizquel was a truly elite player at any point during his career.

I don’t want to come off as a Vizquel basher, or dismissive of his accomplishments. Omar Vizquel was a great player. I don’t believe he was a Hall of Famer.

That doesn’t mean we should forget about him either.

Omar Vizquel Career Highlights from Major League Baseball

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (21-25)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

We begin with the players who rank 21-25 by JAWS.

25. Freddy Garcia

JAWS: 30.9 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Freddy Garcia was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Houston Astros in 1993. In 1998, the Astros packaged him with Carlos Guillen and John Halama to acquire future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson from the Seattle Mariners. Johnson made 11 dominant starts for Houston, helping them to the NL Central championship before signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks after the season. Garcia and Guillen would each end up among the greatest players in Mariners history.

In six seasons with Seattle, Freddy Garcia went 76-50 with a 114 ERA+, accumulating 18.7 bWAR. He was a two-time All Star with the Mariners and led the American League in ERA (3.05) and innings (238.2) in 2001.

With Garcia approaching free agency, the Mariners dealt him to the Chicago White Sox in June, 2004. From 2004-2006, Garcia made 82 starts for the White Sox, remaining consistently above-average in the process. He was a key piece of the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox.

Chicago traded Garcia to the Phillies after the 2006 season. From 2007-2013, Garcia bounced around to six teams including a return engagement with the White Sox in 2009-2010. In 2011, he made 25 starts at 119 ERA+ to help the Yankees win the A.L. East. Overall, he struggled to remain both healthy and effective for much of his final seven seasons.

Hall of Fame?

Freddy Garcia is one of the best pitchers in the comparatively short history of the Seattle Mariners. He will be listed on the all-time Mariners starting rotation here on Franchise Phenoms. He also holds a special place in the hearts of White Sox fans for his role in ending their franchise’s World Series drought.

As his JAWS ratings would suggest, Freddy Garcia clearly falls below the standard for Hall of Fame starting pitchers. Garcia is probably one-and-done on the ballot. At the same time, he will be fondly remembered by the fan bases of at least two franchises, and that is what we’re all about at Franchise Phenoms.

24. Derek Lowe

JAWS: 31.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Derek Lowe was selected by the Seattle Mariners in the 8th round of the 1991 draft out of Ford High School in Dearborn, MI. Lowe made his big league debut with the Mariners in 1997. That July, he was traded with Jason Varitek to the Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb. Slocumb made minimal impact on the Mariners while Lowe and Varitek would become Franchise Phenoms for Boston.

In eight seasons with the Red Sox, Lowe would go on to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history. Lowe began his career as a versatile, mult-inning arm before becoming closer, and eventually shifting to the starting rotation for the second half of his Red Sox career. He was a two-time All Star, once as a reliever, and once as a starter. He led the league in saves in 2000, and finished third in the Cy Young voting as a starter in 2002. In 1037 innings, he posted 127 ERA+ and 19.4 bWAR.

Lowe was the winning pitcher in Game Four of the 2004 World Series, as the Red Sox finished off a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals and dispelled the Curse of the Bambino.

Following the 2004 season, Lowe signed a four-year contract to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the Dodgers, Lowe was largely the same pitcher he had been in Boston. He was a key piece of L.A.’s staring rotation, throwing strikes and racking up ground balls. He finished his Dodgers tenure with 120 ERA+ and 13.3 bWAR. Lowe helped the Dodgers to the postseason in 2006 and 2008.

In 2009, heading into his age-36 season, Lowe signed a free agent deal to join the Atlanta Braves. Although he remained durable, he was less effective during his three years in Atlanta. In 2012-2013, Lowe concluded his career by bouncing from Cleveland to the Yankees, and finally to Texas.

Hall of Fame?

Derek Lowe holds an important place in Red Sox history. His role on the 2004 World Series winners will ensure him a place in Red Sox lore.

Lowe had an excellent 11-year stretch in Boston and L.A. where he was above-average in every season but one. For all of his reliability and sustained success, he was seldom dominant. Aside from 1999-2000 out of the bullpen, and his third-place Cy Young finish as a starter in 2002, Lowe was most often not recognized among the very best pitchers of his generation.

Like Garcia, Lowe falls well short of the Hall of Fame standards for staring pitchers and figures to have a short stay on the ballot. His immortal status in Boston will remain his true legacy.

23. Kevin Youkilis

JAWS: 31.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Kevin Youkilis was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Cincinnati. As a minor leaguer, Youkilis was made famous beyond his prospect status when he was dubbed “The Greek god of Walks” in Moneyball.

Youkilis made his big league debut for the Red Sox in May, 2004. He played a supporting role in the team’s improbable run to its first World Series championship since 1918.

Youkilis was a slightly above-average hitter from 2004-2007. His plate discipline translated nicely, but he failed to show the home run power desired for a corner player.

In the 2007 playoffs, Youkilis was a monster. He hit .500/.576/.929 in Boston’s seven game series win over the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS. The Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the World Series to earn their second championship in four seasons.

Then the power started to show. From 2008-2011, Youk was one of the best offensive players in baseball. He averaged 142 OPS+ and 5.5 bWAR per season during that stretch. He was an All Star in three of those four seasons, and twice got MVP votes finishing third in 2008, and sixth in 2009. With Youk as a driving force, Boston made the playoffs again in both 2008 and 2009.

By 2012, the 33-year-old Youkilis was slowing down. The Red Sox traded him to the White Sox in June. He was better in Chicago, but nothing like the player he had been the previous four years. He played 28 games with the Yankees in 2013, but injuries severely limited him. Youk played 21 games in Japan in 2014, but never returned to the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

Kevin Youkilis enjoyed a surprisingly short 10-year career in the Major Leagues. His distinctive nickname, facial hair, and batting stance all contributed to a cult following in Red Sox Nation. 96% of his career bWAR was accumulated in parts of nine seasons with the Red Sox. He was a three-time All Star, and won a Gold Glove at first base in 2007.

I will confess to being mildly startled by the realization that Youk played more career games at first base than at third. His career 123 OPS+ would look considerably better at the hot corner. Either way, a 10-year career is seldom enough to earn a place in Cooperstown.

Like Garcia and Lowe, Kevin Youkilis was a great player who will be fondly remembered for his role on championship teams, but not a Hall of Famer.

22. Omar Vizquel

JAWS: 36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Omar Vizquel is the first truly interesting case in this exercise. Now in his second year on the ballot, Vizquel showed nicely last winter, earning 37% of the vote. As an 11-time Gold Glover and three-time All Star, Vizquel clearly has some staying power.

Vizquel is one of the best defensive players in baseball history. What makes his candidacy interesting is that it is almost entirely dependent on defense.

In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter. He was an above-average offensive player just twice. This type of candidate is rare, and Vizquel figures to be one of the more polarizing figures on the ballot in coming years.

As a result, I am devoting an entire separate piece to asking the question: Is Omar Vizquel a Hall of Famer?

21. Placido Polanco

JAWS: 36.9 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Placido Polanco was born and raised in the Dominican Republic. After finishing high school in Santo Domingo, Polanco came to the United States. He attended Miami-Dade Junior College in Florida where he was drafted twice. First, in the 49th round by the White Sox in 1993, and then again in the 19th round by the Cardinals the following year.

At the tender age of 22, Polanco made his big league debut with the Cardinals during Mark McGwire’s home run chase in 1998. Never much of an offensive player in the minors, it took Polanco time to acclimate to the big leagues as well. He was a part-time player until 2001, and failed to post a single above-average offensive line in his five seasons with the Cardinals.

At the 2002 trade deadline, Polanco joined left-hander Bud Smith as the headliners in a package that landed Phillies Franchise Phenom Scott Rolen in St. Louis. Polanco elevated his offensive game in Philadelphia by gradually unlocking a little more power and patience. He became a consistently above-average hitter with the Phillies from 2002-2005.

In June, 2005 the Phillies traded Polanco to the Detroit Tigers for closer Ugueth Urbina. Polanco had the best seasons of his career in Detroit from 2005-2009. In 2007 he earned All Star, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger honors for the first time in his career at 31 years old. He won his second Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009.

Polanco returned to Philadelphia from 2010-2012. In 2011, he made his second All Star team and won his third Gold Glove, this time at third base. He finished his career with the Marlins in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Placido Polanco played 16 seasons in the big leagues. He was most often an average player, but occasionally a star.

Never the best player on his own team, much less the league, Polanco figures to join Garcia, Lowe, Youkilis, and probably 10 others as one-and-done’s on this year’s ballot.

Chase Utley: Hall of Famer?

Philadelphia Phillies Franchise Phenom Chase Utley was released from his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday. The move was meant to facilitate his retirement. To commemorate the end of his great career, we take a look back at one of the greatest players in Phillies franchise history. We will also explore where Utley’s legacy leaves him in the history of our great game.

For more on recently retired greats, check out my piece on Joe Mauer’s Hall of Fame case.

Background

Chase Utley was born and raised in Southern California. Utley was selected by his hometown team, the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second round of the 1997 amateur draft out of Polytechnic High School in Long Beach. Rather than sign with the Dodgers, he enrolled at UCLA. Following his junior season for the Bruins, Utley was selected 15th overall by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2000 draft.

Utley quickly rose through the Philadelphia farm system. By 2002, the 23-year-old infielder was in Triple-A, clearly among the best prospects in the minors.

Time Lost

The Phillies sent Utley back to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin 2003 in what would prove to be a foolish maneuver. He dominated the International League during his second stint in Triple-A while the Phillies received brutal production from a pair of veteran third basemen. Utley held his own in a 43-game trial, most of which was in August and September. The Phillies won 86 games, and finished five out of the postseason.

Inexplicably, the Phillies jerked him around again at the start of the 2004 season. Utley spent April back in Triple-A before finally earning a permanent place with the big club. David Bell was better at third than he had been the year before, and Placido Polanco was steady at second. Utley managed just 287 plate appearances in the big leagues in his age 25 season. The Phillies again won 86 games, this time finishing six out of the playoffs.

In light of the career that Utley went on to have, it is fair to wonder how much different Phillies history may have been if they had committed to him sooner. For a team in playoff contention for most of 2003-2004, an earlier emergence for one of the greatest players in franchise history could have swung the balance in their favor. Unfortunately, we will never know.

Phillies Career

The Phillies finally committed to Utley more completely in 2005.
Polanco was dealt to Detroit in June, and second base in Philadelphia belonged to Chase Utley. In 147 games, he hit .291/.376/.540, good for 132 OPS+. He received some down ballot MVP votes at the conclusion of the year. The team’s inexcusable decision to stick with David Bell through his second miserable season in three years probably cost them the playoffs. With 88 wins, they finished one game out of the Wild Card, and two games out of the Division lead.

2006 would be the sixth straight 80+ win season, none of which resulted in a playoff appearance. Utley made his first All Star team and led the league with 131 runs. He also won his first Silver Slugger, and finished seventh in the MVP voting. With 85 wins, the Phillies were three games out of the Wild Card.

Getting Over The Hump

Following an extended run of respectable mediocrity, better days were ahead for the Phillies starting in 2007. Chase Utley would be right at the center of things.

From 2007-2011, the Phillies won five straight division championships. Utley hit .290/.386/.583, 132 OPS+, and averaged 6.9 bWAR during that stretch. On teams littered with some of the greatest players in franchise history, Chase Utley was arguably the best of them all.

2008

The 2007 Phillies won the NL East, but were swept in the NLDS by the Rockies. With the roster largely intact, Philadelphia repeated as division champs in 2008. Franchise Phenoms Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins were excellent. Ryan Howard was still among the game’s most feared sluggers, and Brad Lidge was arguably the best reliever in baseball.

On a team loaded with talent, Chase Utley was clearly the best player on the roster. 2008 was Utley’s career year as his usual stellar offense was accompanied by perhaps the best defensive season of his career. He finished with a career best 9.0 bWAR.

2008 Playoffs

In the NLDS the Phillies were matched up with Wild Card team, the Milwaukee Brewers. Although Utley was the least productive regular in the Phillies lineup, his teammates carried him. Philadelphia won the series in four games and rolled into the NLCS.

In the NLCS, the Phillies had home field advantage over the NL West Champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers. With their ace Cole Hamels rested, and at the height of his powers, Philadelphia was at a decided advantage.

After a rough NLDS, Utley was excellent against the Dodgers.
Hamels controlled Game One, holding L.A. to two runs in seven innings. It was Utley’s two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth that tied the game. Left fielder Pat Burrell followed suit two batters later to put the Phillies on top for good.

Utley walked four times in five trips to the plate in Game Two. His teammates slugged out an 8-5 win to take commanding position in the series.

Out west, the Dodgers took Game Three. The Phillies answered back in Game Four. Utley had three hits and an RBI in the win. In Game Five, Utley was 0-4 but walked twice and scored. Hamels allowed one run over seven innings, and the Phillies clinched their first World Series trip since 1980. Utley hit .353/.522/.647 in the series to lead the offense.

2008 World Series

Coming off an incredible Game Seven victory over the Red Sox in the ALCS, the Tampa Bay Rays were riding hot. Themselves winners of 97 games in the regular season, the Rays were loaded with some of their own franchise greats.

Hamels was rested enough to start Game One. Utley delivered the first blow with a two-run homer off Scott Kazmir in the top of the first. Hamels allowed two runs in seven innings before turning it over to the bullpen. Philadelphia took the opener 3-2.

James Shields held the Phillies at bay in Game Two. Tampa won 4-2 to even the series.

Utley delivered again in Game Three. This time it was a solo homer off Matt Garza to lead off the bottom of the sixth to extend the Phillies lead to 3-1. They held on to win 5-4.

The Philadelphia offense exploded in Game Four behind Joe Blanton. Ryan Howard homered twice, and drove in five runs. Utley walked twice and scored a pair of runs. The Phillies won 10-2 to take a 3-1 series lead.

Game Five featured Hamels against Kazmir again. Hamels cemented his place as the World Series MVP allowing just two runs over six innings. In a game that was ultimately decided by the bullpens, Philadelphia won 4-3 to secure their second championship in franchise history. Utley hit just .167 in the series, but homered twice, walked five times, ultimately leading the Phillies with five runs scored.

Repeat?

The 2009 Phillies returned the core of their championship team. The additions of veterans Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee as well as the emergence of J.A. Happ helped infuse the team with new blood as well. With 93 wins, the Phillies took their third straight NL East title.

For the fourth straight season, Chase Utley was an All Star and received MVP votes. His 8.2 bWAR was only slightly lower than his 2008 career year. His consistently excellent play was once again a driving force in the team’s success.

In a series that featured three one-run games, the Phillies defeated the Rockies in four games in the NLDS. Utley hit .429/.556/.643 to help lead the way.

For the second straight season, the Phillies met the Dodgers in the NLCS. Utley struggled, but still managed to reach base eight times in five games. The offense and starting rotation carried a suspect bullpen in blowout wins in the third and fifth games. The Phillies took the series in five to win their second straight National League pennant.

In the World Series, the Phillies were matched up with the New York Yankees. Utley was otherworldly. In six games, he hit .286/.400/1.048. His five homers, seven runs, and eight RBI were tops for the series. Unfortunately, the pitching staff was less impressive. The Yankees took the series in six to dethrone the defending champs.

Super Teams (2010-2011)

With their remarkable core of position players still under team control, and nearing the end of their respective primes, the clock was ticking after 2009. To their great credit, Phillies management went all in. In December 2009, they traded for another ace in Roy Halladay.

When the 2010 team made a late push to close the gap in the division to 3.5 games in late July, the front office acted again. They shipped three talented young players, including Happ, to the Astros for veteran ace Roy Oswalt.

With three of the best pitchers in baseball on their staff, the Phillies finally overtook the Braves in September. They finished the season with 97 wins and their fourth straight NL East title.

2010 Playoffs

Utley was yet again at the heart of things when the Phillies swept the Reds in the NLDS. His three runs, and four RBI led the way. When Roy Halladay tossed a no-hitter in Game One, it seemed the Phillies might be the favorites heading deeper into October.

Unfortunately, the Phillies ran into another loaded pitching staff in the NLCS. The San Francisco Giants matched the Phillies pitch for pitch. After three one-run victories, the Giants sent the Phillies home in six games.

2011

With the core of their offense returning, and one of the most talented starting rotations in modern history, the 2011 Phillies were a juggernaut. At 3.8 bWAR, Utley ranked just fifth on the team behind the trio of aces Lee, Halladay, and Hamels as well as center fielder Shane Victorino. Their 102-60 record is the best in franchise history.

When the most talented team in franchise history lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in five games in the NLDS, it was a crushing blow. A veteran team with dominant starting pitching, and a core of position players who had won rings just a few years before, the Phillies were widely considered the favorites in 2011. For his part, Utley was excellent leading the Phillies offense with a .438/.571/.688 line in the series.

It Ended Without Us Knowing

With the bulk of the team returning yet again in 2012, it seemed the Phillies were as good a bet as anyone to head back to the postseason. Then the season began, and it quickly became apparent that 2012 was a new year. By June 12, the Phillies were 9.5 games out. They never led the division after opening day.

Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz were still solid on offense. Hamels and Lee were still among the games best starters. Unfortunately, everyone else struggled. The remaining core group of veterans looked significantly older. The optimism that persisted even after their disappointing loss in 2011 was quickly gone as the team had to confront the prospect of an expensive core of veterans aging in a less than graceful fashion.

Utley remained one of the top second basemen in the game in 2013-2014. Most efforts to patch the roster failed, however. The core of some of the greatest teams in Phillies history was depleted beyond repair.

In 2015, father time finally caught up to Utley as well. After 73 rough games, the Phillies traded one of the greatest players in their history to the eventual NL West champion Dodgers in an under the radar August deal.

After Philadelphia

After moving to the Dodgers, Utley instantly went from being the face of a franchise to just another player. He was acquired not to save the team, but to support it.

From 2015-2018, Utley served as a semi-regular player, platoon option, and veteran leader in Los Angeles. On a wonderfully deep and versatile roster, Utley was just one of the boys. Still, he contributed to four straight division champions. He even returned to the World Series in 2017 when the Dodgers were defeated by the Houston Astros.

Utley announced his intention to retire after the 2018 season before it concluded. The Dodgers made the World Series for the second straight season in 2018, but were defeated by the Boston Red Sox in five games. Utley was left off the playoff roster.

Legacy

I like Chase Utley as a Hall of Fame candidate. At the same time, I suspect that many modern baseball fans have severely underappreciated him. There are probably a variety of factors at play here.

His particular contributions were diverse and wide-ranging. Chase Utley was good at just about everything on a baseball field. At the same time, he was not elite at most of those things outside of the occasional peak season in one skill or another. Because he was above-average or better at just about everything, he was always great even when it wasn’t totally obvious.

Beyond his sneaky greatness, or perhaps because of it, Utley was often not identified as the best player on his own team. Howard and Rollins each won NL MVP awards in seasons when Chase Utley was actually the best player on the Phillies.

Finally, his delayed ascension to big league stardom is probably still a factor even after a stellar 16-year career. Utley didn’t debut until he was 24. He wasn’t an everyday player until he was 26. Most Hall of Fame players simply get started younger. That lost time cost him some important counting stats in the end.

Chase Utley was a six-time All Star and won four Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes four times, but never finished higher than seventh. Viewing him in the context of his place among the all-time Phillies greats might be the most favorable light in which to appreciate his excellent career.

Utley is ranked as the 11th best second baseman in history by JAWS. He comes in right above the current average for Hall of Famers at the position. His peak was fairly short by Hall of Fame standards, but that shouldn’t detract from his case. As a great player on great teams, his intangibles should earn him any benefit of the doubt.

Chase Utley’s Career Highlights from Major League Baseball

Joe Mauer: Hall of Famer?

Minnesota Twins all-time great Joe Mauer announced his retirement on Friday. To commemorate the end of his great career, we take a look back at one of the greatest players in Twins franchise history. We will also explore where Mauer’s legacy leaves him in the history of our great game.

Background

Joe Mauer was born and raised in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota. A legendary high school athlete for Cretin-Derham Hall High School in St. Paul, Mauer was highly accomplished in multiple sports. As a quarterback, Mauer was committed to play for Florida State. For all of his gridiron prowess, Mauer’s destiny was on the diamond.

With the first pick in the 2001 MLB draft, the Minnesota Twins were faced with a dilemma. The consensus top prospect in the draft was Southern California rigth-hander Mark Prior. A dominant arm assured to arrive quickly in the majors, Prior was at the top of virtually every evaluator’s list that spring. When the Twins balked at Prior’s contract demands, they turned to the elite prep catcher in their own backyard instead.

Drafted into a scenario fraught with potential downside, Mauer had much to prove. The reports on his tools included an elite swing, athleticism and plus, or better, tools on the defensive side. Still, the pick felt to many observers like little more than a penny-pinching maneuver from the Twins. Prior’s quick ascent to the big leagues less than a year after being drafted didn’t do Mauer, or the Twins, any favors either.

As Prior quickly became a household name, Mauer methodically worked his way through the minors. While Prior finished third in the Cy Young race in 2003, Mauer finished his age-20 season at Double-A New Britain.

Getting Settled In

Despite the fact that Mauer was Baseball America’s top prospect heading into the 2004 season, it was unclear whether he would ever live up to his draft position, or live down the reputation of being selected before Prior. Mauer made his debut in 2004, but struggled with injuries and played just 35 games at the big league level.

In 2005, Mauer was healthy and immediately proved himself to be an above-average big league catcher. He hit .294/.372/.411, 107 OPS+ and produced 2.8 bWAR. By this point, it was clear that even if the Twins had not taken the best player in the draft, Mauer would be a fixture in Minnesota for years to come.

Breakout and Prime

2006 was Joe Mauer’s coming-out party. Mauer hit .347/.429/.507, 144 OPS+ and won the American League batting title. At 5.8 bWAR, Mauer was the most valuable catcher in baseball. He was selected to the All Star team for the first time, and won his first Silver Slugger.

Mauer’s breakout was well timed with those of a number of his teammates. First baseman Justin Morneau won the MVP in 2006. Left-hander Johan Santana won his second Cy Young Award. 22-year-old lefty Francisco Liriano came out of nowhere to join the rotation. He posted an even better ERA+ than Santana. Closer Joe Nathan was arguably the best reliever in the game.

The Twins surged to 96 wins and the American League Central championship before being swept in the ALDS by the Oakland Athletics. Despite the heartbreaking end to an excellent season, the five best players on the 2006 Twins were under 30 and returning. The future was bright in Minnesota with Mauer leading the way.

In a regrettable twist of fate, 2006 was also the last time Mark Prior pitched in the Major Leagues. A series of injuries held him to just 43.2 innings that season, and kept him from ever returning to a big league mound. Prior was a brilliant supernova whose 16.6 career bWAR would still rank fourth best in his draft class despite not pitching after age 25. The top pick, Joe Mauer, would end up being the top player in the 2001 draft after all.

Mauer came back to earth a little in 2007. Although his underlying skills were well intact, his BABIP dropped 45 points and his overall line suffered. He finished the year at 118 OPS+ with 3.9 bWAR. Morneau and Santana regressed as well. Liriano missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was never quite the same again. The Twins finished 79-83.

Baseball’s Best Backstop

With Santana headed towards a mega-contract in free agency, Minnesota dealt him to the Mets in February, 2008. Joe Mauer was now, officially, the face of his hometown franchise. Mauer responded with a stretch that included some of the best baseball of his career.

Still just 25 years old, Mauer won his second batting title in 2008. He hit .328/.413/.451, 134 OPS+ and produced 5.6 bWAR. He made his second All Star team, won his second Silver Slugger, and his first Gold Glove. Still the preeminent catcher in the game, Mauer finished fourth in the MVP race. The Twins rebounded to win 88 games, but lost a Game 163 tiebreaker to the White Sox to narrowly miss the playoffs.

2009 MVP

Mauer’s career-year came the following season. In 2009, Mauer led the American League in each of the triple-slash categories with a .365/.444/.587 line. His 171 OPS+ was also tops in the league. For the second straight year, Mauer was an All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover. He received all but one first-place vote for MVP.

The Twins won 87 games, which was enough to win the Central this time around. Unfortunately, they were swept in the ALDS for the second time in four seasons, this time by the New York Yankees.

Back to the Playoffs

The 2010 Minnesota Twins repeated as AL Central champions, this time winning 94 games. Once again, Mauer was the best player on a division champion. He hit .327/.402/.469, good for 140 OPS+ and 5.9 bWAR. For the third straight season, Mauer was an All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover.

Still an OBP machine, Mauer was the 10th best hitter in the American League in 2010. Notably, his power output declined precipitously. The Twins had moved into their new home ballpark at Target Field, and Mauer was impacted more than any other player. After hitting 28 homers during his MVP campaign in 2009, he hit just nine in 2010.

For the second straight season, the Twins met the Yankees in the ALDS. For the second straight season, they were dispatched in three games.

A Dark Age in Minnesota

2011 marked the beginning of a brutal stretch for the Twins. Coming off back-to-back division championships, there was reason for optimism heading into the season, but it quickly faded. The team cratered in every facet of the game and finished with the worst record in the American League.

For his part, Mauer played just 82 games in 2011. Knee and shoulder injuries combined with a virus conspired to leave Mauer battling to get healthy all season. He was never quite right and produced just 102 OPS+.

Healthy again in 2012, Mauer proved he was still a star. He produced 140 OPS+ on the strength of a league-leading .416 OBP. He was selected to the All Star team for the fifth time. A healthy Mauer was not enough to save a brutal starting rotation, and the Twins were again the worst team in the American League.

2013 was more of the same for Mauer and the Twins. The 30-year-old backstop produced 142 OPS+, making him the eighth best hitter in the A.L. Mauer was once again an All Star and Silver Slugger. The Twins continued to struggle, winning just 66 games.

Decline Phase

Unbeknownst to the baseball world, Joe Mauer’s best days were behind him by the end of 2013. A concussion suffered during the 2013 season would mark the beginning of a difficult final five seasons for the franchise icon.

To ease the burden, and limit the physical risk to their superstar, the Twins moved Mauer to first base full-time in 2014. The move largely had the desired effect on his availability. Mauer averaged 136 games over his final five seasons after averaging just 123 over his previous five. He continued to battle injuries, but was mostly available.

It quickly became clear that Mauer’s was not the same player, however. The injuries, particularly the aftereffects of his concussions, took their toll. A career 135 OPS+ hitter through 2013, Mauer averaged just 105 OPS+ from 2014-2018. His contact and on-base skills, once elite, were now merely above-average. His power, initially dampened by the move to Target Field, all but evaporated.

The Twins averaged just 75 wins per season during this stretch. Outside of a surprise 85-win season that ended in a wild card game loss to the Yankees in 2017, Minnesota was seldom relevant during Mauer’s final years.

Joe Mauer announced his retirement in November, 2018 at 35 years old. He played his entire career for his hometown Twins.

Legacy

Through 2013, Mauer boasted a career line of .323/.405/.468, 135 OPS+, and averaged 6.2 bWAR per 650 plate appearances. He had 1414 hits, 105 homers, 634 RBI, and more walks than strikeouts for his career. Joe Mauer was a surefire Hall of Famer through his age-30 season.

Then the injuries set in. Every aspect of Mauer’s game was negatively impacted by the physical beating he took during his 20s. It is now clear that the concussions, especially, chipped away at one of the greatest talents of his generation.

Mauer’s Hall of Fame candidacy likely rests solely on the extent to which the voters consider him a catcher. With 921 career appearances behind the plate, Mauer played there more than anywhere else. He also made 913 appearances as a first baseman or designated hitter.

Considered solely as a catcher, Mauer should be viewed as a slam dunk. Notably, JAWS ranks him as the 7th best catcher in history and above the average for Hall of Famers at the position.

If voters even partially penalize him for his time spent at first base, dramatic decline, or overall short career, his candidacy could be in jeopardy. When compared with first basemen, Mauer falls well short of the overall standard required for enshrinement. While it would be unfair to consider him primarily a first baseman, it’s not clear whether the voters will consider him mostly a catcher.

For my money, Joe Mauer is a Hall of Famer. He was the best catcher in baseball for nearly a decade. While it would have been better for baseball to see him have a more just decline phase, it wasn’t in the cards. Given the choice, I like peak level heroics in my Hall of Famers, even if they don’t necessarily age all that well.

Rather than focus on what didn’t go right, I prefer to remember Joe Mauer as one of the greatest catchers of my lifetime.

Sixteen years after no. 1 pick, no regrets for Twins or Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer Lived Up to the Hype

Joe Mauer Career Highlights from Major League Baseball