Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.
Check out the previous installments in the series:
Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones
Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, and Lance Berkman
Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada
Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia
8. Edgar Martinez
JAWS: 56.0 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)
Edgar Martinez was born in New York. As a child, he moved to Puerto Rico to live with his grandparents. Martinez remained in Puerto Rico through his teenage years and graduated from Dorado High School. In December 1982, at the age of 20, the Seattle Mariners signed him out of a tryout camp in his hometown. Edgar methodically climbed through the Seattle system and made his big league debut in 1987.
Although he debuted in 1987, by the end of 1989, Martinez had just 280 big league plate appearances to his credit. Despite his clear mastery of the Triple-A level, Martinez was stuck. Although the Mariners received virtually no production at third base during those years, it took the team until 1990 (Martinez’s age-27 season) to give him regular at-bats at the big league level.
Once his path to playing time was cleared, Martinez immediately established himself as an excellent offensive player, and credible third baseman. From 1990-1991, he averged 135 OPS+ and 5.8 bWAR. Edgar broke out in 1992, winning his first batting title (.343) and leading the league in doubles (46) en route to his first All Star selection, and a Silver Slugger.
A freak leg injury in a 1993 pre-season exhibition game limited him to just 42 games that season. Martinez was healthier, and more productive, in 1994. Still, he averaged just 116 OPS+ during his shortened age 30-31 seasons.
Heading into 1995, it was fair to wonder if Edgar Martinez’s best days were already behind him. Instead, Martinez ended up being the best offensive player on a resurgent Seattle club that won the A.L. West. He led the league in hitting, OBP, and OPS+ with a .356/.479/.628, 185 OPS+ line. His 121 runs and 52 doubles were also tops in the A.L. Seattle beat the Yankees in the ALDS, but lost in six games to Cleveland in the ALCS.
Rather than suffer a steep decline in his 30s, Martinez proved to be better with age. From 1995-2003, he averaged .321/.438/.558, 159 OPS+, and 5.2 bWAR. Playing almost exclusively as a Designated Hitter, Martinez cemented his legacy as one of the greatest hitters of his generation.
Seattle won the A.L. West again in 1997 and 2001, as well as the 2000 Wild Card, but never made the World Series during Martinez’s career. He retired after the 2004 season.
Hall of Fame?
Edgar Martinez spent his entire 18-year career with the Seattle Mariners. At a time when the team could not hang onto their other stars, Edgar was a consistently excellent, and stable force for their organization. He hit .312/.418/.515, 147 OPS+ for his career. He was a seven-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers, and two batting titles. Edgar received MVP votes five times, peaking at third place in his historic 1995 season.
JAWS treats Edgar Martinez as a third-baseman, ranking him 11th all-time. In reality, Edgar served as Seattle’s DH in 1403 games, and made less than half that number of appearances in the field.
Although other Hall of Famers such as Frank Thomas and Harold Baines spent significant parts of their careers at DH, Martinez has spent the last ten years as the first pure DH to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate. His lack of defensive contributions, combined with his comparatively low counting stats stemming from his late breakthrough in the big leagues have held him back despite his excellent rate numbers.
After receiving 70.4% of the vote in his 9th season a year ago, it appears that Edgar Martinez will be elected by the BBWAA in his 10th, and final, year on the ballot. He would join former Mariners teammates Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson in representing a golden age of Mariners baseball in Cooperstown.
7. Scott Rolen
JAWS: 56.9 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)
Scott Rolen was born and raised in Southern Indiana. After graduating from Jasper High School in 1993, Rolen was a second round draft pick of the Philadelphia Phillies. By the time his first full professional season had concluded, Rolen was already recognized as one of the top prospects in baseball. He was ranked in Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects three straight seasons beginning in 1995.
Rolen made his big league debut in 1996, and became an everyday player in 1997 at the age of 22. He won the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1997, producing 4.5 bWAR and 121 OPS+.
He was better still in 1998. Rolen combined a 139 OPS+ with Gold Glove defense to produce 6.7 bWAR. It was his best season with the Phillies.
In seven seasons with Philadelphia, Rolen hit .282/.373/.504, 126 OPS+, and produced 29.3 bWAR. The Phillies failed to make the postseason during Rolen’s tenure. With their star third baseman heading towards free agency, the club traded Rolen at the 2002 deadline to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Upon arriving in St. Louis, Rolen became a driving force in the Cardinals’ runaway effort to win the N.L. Central. A contract extension kept Rolen in St. Louis for six seasons. He would go on to hit .286/.370/.510, 127 OPS+, and produce 25.9 bWAR. The Cardinals made the playoffs in four of his six seasons, won two National League pennants, and the 2006 World Series.
After 2007, coming off his second down year in three, the Cardinals swapped Rolen for Toronto third baseman Troy Glaus. Rolen rebounded in Toronto, but with the Jays out of contention in 2009, they traded him to the Cincinnati Reds in July.
Rolen spent the final three-plus seasons of his storied career in Cincinnati. Although he had just one star caliber season for the Reds, he did contribute to two N.L. Central titles.
Hall of Fame?
In his 17-year career, Scott Rolen hit .281/.364/.490, 122 OPS+. He was a consistently excellent defensive player, and finished his career 12th in games played at third base. Rolen was a seven-time All Star who won eight Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes four times, including a fourth place finish in 2004.
Rolen ranks as the 10th best third baseman by JAWS, one spot ahead of Edgar Martinez. Unlike Martinez, Rolen is a full-fledged third baseman, and ultimately the superior overall player. Every eligible third baseman ranked above him is in the Hall of Fame.
After receiving just 10.2% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, Rolen faces an uphill battle in the coming years. The early publicly available returns indicate he should gain some ground this year, but his election is hardly imminent, or certain.
Rolen was a superior overall player to several players who are currently tracking better than him in the voting. Ultimately, I suspect that Scott Rolen will gradually gain support, and eventually earn induction in Cooperstown.
6. Roy Halladay
JAWS: 57.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Roy Halladay was born and raised in the Denver, Colorado area. A 1995 graduate of Arvada West High School, Halladay was selected 17th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays that June. Halladay performed well in the low minors, and was pushed aggressively through the Blue Jays system. He reached Triple-A during his age-20 season, and made his big league debut the following year.
Like the Blue Jays organization, the scouting community agreed that Halladay was a premium prospect. Baseball America ranked him 38th, or better, each season from 1997-1999. In retrospect, it’s easy to see that Halladay may not have been as well prepared for the big leagues as it appeared at first glance. His strikeout/walk numbers in the high minors were unremarkable– a trend that followed him to the big leagues.
After he was battered for 19 games in 2000, Halladay carried a 5.77 ERA through 231 innings. He was sent all the way back to High Class-A in 2001. It was during his return to the minors that Halladay famously overhauled his mechanics and mental approach. By the time he returned to the big leagues in July, he was a completely different pitcher. He finished the season with 105.1 big league innings at 145 ERA+.
In 2002, Halladay proved that his transformation was permanent. He made the All Star team, and led the league with 239.1 innings at 157 ERA+.
In 2003, he upped the ante with 266 innings, also leading the league with 22 wins, nine complete games, and a 6.38 K/BB ratio. He was again an All Star, and won 26 of 28 first place votes for the Cy Young.
After injuries in 2004-2005 limited him to just 274.2 total innings, Halladay resumed his dominance of the American League in 2006. He finished his Blue Jays career with four straight top-five Cy Young finishes, and 930.1 innings at 142 ERA+.
Halladay’s tenure in Toronto came to a crossroads after the 2009 season. Despite his individual brilliance, Halladay had been unable to elevate the Blue Jays to the playoffs at any point in his career. In December, Toronto traded him to the defending champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Halladay was brilliant in his initiation to the National League in 2010. He led the league with 21 wins, 250.2 innings, and 1.1 BB/9. The Phillies won their fourth straight N.L. East title. Halladay threw a no-hitter in the NLDS opener against the Reds, but the Phillies fell to the Giants in the NLCS. After the season, Halladay won the Cy Young, making him just the fifth player to have won the award in both leagues at the time.
He was similarly excellent in 2011, pacing the N.L. in ERA+ (163) and FIP (2.20). The Phillies won the division again before losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Hallday finished second in the Cy Young race.
Injuries took their toll on Halladay after 2011. In his last two seasons, he struggled to remain on the mound, and was mostly ineffective when he did. He retired after his age-36 season.
Hall of Fame?
In his 16-year career, Roy Halladay established himself as one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. He finished with a record of 203-105 and 131 ERA+. He was even more superb in the 11 seasons in the middle of his career. From 2001-2011, he was 175-78 with a 148 ERA+.
Halladay was an eight-time All Star. He led the league in wins twice, and innings four times during his career. In addition to his two Cy Youngs, he finished fifth, or better, another five times in his career including two second-place finishes.
JAWS ranks Halladay as the 43rd best starting pitcher in history. The system is structured to reward peak level dominance, which is essential to Halladay’s case. What he lacks in longevity, and counting stats, he makes up for with his marvelous 11-year peak.
Roy Halladay died tragically in a plane crash on November 7, 2017 at the age of 40.
I have previously mentioned that I prefer to give considerable weight to peak level brilliance when evaluating Hall of Fame candidates. Roy Halladay is a poster boy for the reasons why. Anyone who watched him pitch during his peak knew they were witnessing a Hall of Fame career. Even if he doesn’t check all of the boxes for counting stats, there is little doubt he was one of the best pitchers of his era.
Roy Halladay appears poised to be elected to the Hall of Fame this winter, on the first ballot.
