Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.
Check out the previous installments in the series:
10. Andruw Jones
JAWS: 54.7 (57.7 Average HOF CF)
Andruw Jones was born and raised in Willemstad, Curacao. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in July, 1993. Once he reached the U.S., Jones quickly stood out among his peers. Baseball America ranked him as their top prospect prior to the 1996 season.
Just 19 in 1996, Jones advanced through three levels of the minor leagues, slugging 34 homers and stealing 30 bases in just 116 games. He made his big league debut in August, and quickly earned regular playing time. Jones became an international sensation when he hit .400/.500/.750 with two homers as a teenager in the Braves 1996 World Series loss to the Yankees.
Jones quickly established himself as one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. He won 10 straight Gold Gloves as a member of the Braves, helping to anchor the defense behind one of the greatest starting rotations in history.
His offense steadily improved as well. In 12 seasons with the Braves, Jones hit .263/.342/.497, 113 OPS+. In 2005 he finished second in the MVP voting when he led the league with 51 homers and 128 RBI in addition to his excellent defense.
The Braves won the N.L. East every season from 1996-2005. They won the pennant in 1996 and 1999. Jones was a critical piece of their sustained success.
After appearing in the postseason every year since 1991, the Braves finished third in 2006-2007. In 2007, Jones produced just 87 OPS+ in his age 30 season and the Braves elected to let him walk away as a free agent.
Jones signed with the Dodgers for 2008, but struggled to remain healthy and effective. He was released that winter and signed with the Rangers. Jones spent 2009-2012 in the American League. He played single seasons in Texas, Chicago, and the final two years of his career with the Yankees where he contributed to back-to-back A.L. East titles.
Jones starred for two seasons with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japanese Pacific League where he hit 50 homers in 2013-2014, but never returned to the big leagues.
Hall of Fame?
In his 17-year career, Andruw Jones hit .254/.337/.486, 111 OPS+. A solid hitter, Jones produced nearly as much value in the field and on the bases. He was a five-time All Star who won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes five times.
Jones ranks as the 11th best center fielder by JAWS. Although he is just shy of the average mark for the position, that number is boosted by the exceptional careers of several all-time greats. Jones ranks better than 12 of the 19 Hall of Fame center fielders.
There is a strange dynamic at play regarding the candidacy of Jones. For the first 11 years of his career, there was little doubt that Jones was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. An excellent defensive player who blossomed into an elite hitter, Jones had the benefit of breaking into the big leagues younger than most, and figured to rack up massive counting stats into his 30s.
Then the last part failed to materialize. Over the last six years of his career, Jones was an entirely different player. His athleticism declined with startling rapidity sapping his defensive value to the point where he abandoned center field altogether, and spent significant time at DH during his A.L. years. He produced just 92 OPS+ and 4.7 bWAR from age 30-35 before washing out of the big leagues for good.
Jones was named on just 7.3% of the ballots during his first year of eligibility. He is teetering on the brink of falling off the ballot entirely this year. The voters appear to be aggressively penalizing him for his rapid decline, rather than properly rewarding his magnificent peak.
For me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer. If forced to choose, I prefer shorter stretches of brilliance over long-term statistical compilers. Both have their place in Cooperstown, and Andruw Jones certainly fits into the former category.
9. Manny Ramirez
JAWS: 54.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)
Manny Ramirez was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. He moved to the U.S. as a teenager, and graduated from George Washington High School in Manhattan. The Cleveland Indians drafted him 13th overall in June, 1991. A supremely talented hitter, Ramirez immediately put himself on the prospect map. After shredding the high minors in 1993, he earned a big league trial. Baseball America ranked him as their #7 prospect entering 1994.
The Cleveland Indians were on the verge of becoming one of the most successful teams of the late-90s when Ramirez burst onto the scene. They were one game out of first when the strike began in 1994. Cleveland would go on to win five straight A.L. Central titles as Ramirez established himself as one of the best hitters in the game.
During his eight seasons in Cleveland, Ramirez hit .313/.407/.592, 152 OPS+. He led the league with 165 RBI in 1999 and paced the junior circuit in slugging and OPS in 1999-2000.
Manny hit free agency after the 2000 season. He was entering his age-29 season coming off three straight top-six MVP finishes. In a move that would alter the course of two franchises, Ramirez signed with the Boston Red Sox.
In Boston, Manny was exactly as advertised. He remained of the most feared right-handed hitters in the game for eight seasons with the Red Sox. His career line in Boston was a virtual carbon copy of that in Cleveland at .312/.411/.588, 155 OPS+. He won the batting title in 2002 (.349), led the league in slugging in 2004 (.613), and had the highest OBP in the league three times as a member of the Red Sox.
Manny would end up as a central piece of Boston’s turnaround after the turn of the century. Boston won the Wild Card three straight years beginning in 2003. Their improbable ALCS comeback against the Yankees in 2004 paved the way for the franchise’s first World Series championship since 1918. Manny was the World Series MVP in the sweep of the Cardinals. When they won again in 2007, Manny was still hitting in the middle of the Boston order.
By 2008, Ramirez’s declining defensive value, and generally erratic behavior, had worn thin in Boston. It became clear that the Red Sox would not sign him to a contract extension after the season. Although he was still a productive hitter, and they were in the middle of a playoff race, the Red Sox traded Ramirez to the Dodgers at the deadline.
Ramirez dominated the stretch run in Los Angeles, helping the Dodgers to the N.L. West title. He signed a contract extension in L.A. and helped the Dodgers repeat as division champs the next year, although he was suspended 50 games for PED use.
When the Dodgers faded in 2010, they let Manny pass to the White Sox via waivers late in August. He played his final big league game for Tampa in April, 2011. Although he bounced around the Triple-A Pacific Coast League for three different teams from 2012-2014, he would never return to the Majors.
Hall of Fame?
In his incredible 19-year career, Manny Ramirez hit .312/.411/.585, 154 OPS+. His 555 career homers rank 15th all-time. Manny was a 12-time All Star who won nine Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes 11 times including eight straight top-nine finishes.
Manny ranks as the 10th best left fielder in history by JAWS. He is just above the average, and ranks better than 13 of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position.
Like half-a-dozen players on the current ballot, Ramirez’s candidacy has been torpedoed by steroid use. Ramirez tested positive three different times during his career leaving a permanent black eye on his resume.
Although his credentials place him at a level above Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa, the voters have clearly shown that they view Manny closer to that group than to Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.
Now in his third year of eligibility, Manny clearly needs a shift in the voters’ attitudes toward the steroid era to have any chance of enshrinement in Cooperstown.