Tag: Larry Walker

The Mount RushWAR series will allow us to take a more in-depth look at the careers of the four players with the highest bWAR in franchise history.

Todd Helton (61.2)

Background

Todd Helton was born and raised in Knoxville, Tennessee.  After graduating from Central High School, he enrolled at the University of Tennessee.  A phenomenal high school athlete, Helton was recruited to play two-sports for the Volunteers.

Despite being selected in the second round of the 1992 draft by the San Diego Padres, Helton elected to enroll at Tennessee.  Unlike many two-sport collegiate players in recent years, Helton was a factor in both sports for the Vols.  In football, he had a temporary spin as the starting quarterback before injury opened the door for Peyton Manning.  In baseball, he was an offensive force for three seasons before a huge power surge in his junior year solidified his status as one of the best amateur players in the country.

The Rockies drafted Helton eighth overall in the 1995 draft.  He opened his first full season in pro-ball with a thorough thrashing of Double-A New Haven before finishing the year with Triple-A Colorado Springs.  Heading into 1997, Helton was ranked as the #16 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.  

After another excellent stint at Colorado Springs to begin 1997, the Rockies promoted Helton in August.  He produced roughly league-average offense while often playing out of position in the corner outfield spots.  Outside of some isolated rehab stints Helton would never return to the minors.

Rockies Career

Fellow Rockies Franchise Phenom Andres Galarraga signed as a free agent with the Braves after the 1997.  Galarraga’s departure cleared Helton to return to his natural position, first base.  He would remain the Rockies first option at the position for the next 16 seasons.

By the end of 1999, Helton had played 346 games at the big league level.  He produced a .315/.384/.554 line, good for 119 OPS+, and 5.9 bWAR.  He was an established above-average regular heading into his prime.

Breakout and Peak

As the Rockies entered a new century, 26-year-old Todd Helton was preparing to enter his magnificent prime years.  Helton exploded on the National League in 2000.  The sweet-swinging lefty led the league in all three triple-slash categories with a .372/.463/.698 line.  His 216 hits, 59 doubles, and 157 RBI were all tops in the senior circuit.  Helton made his first All Star team, won his first Silver Slugger, and finished fifth in the MVP voting.  His 8.9 bWAR led the National League and would end up being a career high.

From 2000-2005, Helton was consistently one of the most feared offensive players in the game.  Over that six-year stretch, he averaged .344/.449/.626, 158 OPS+, and 7.0 bWAR.  He won all of his personal awards during this incredible run.  Helton made five straight NL All Star teams from 2000-2004.  He won four Silver Sluggers, and three Gold Gloves.  Despite his incredible play, Helton never finished higher in the MVP race than the fifth place finish he managed in 2000.

Decline

As fate would have it, Todd Helton’s best baseball was behind him by the age of 32.  After finishing his ninth season with the Rockies at a career mark of 148 OPS+, Helton would never approach that level of production again.

In the eight seasons of the second half of his career, Helton would average just 111 OPS+ and 1.6 bWAR.  Outside of isolated excellent seasons in 2007 (133 OPS+, 4.5 bWAR) and 2009 (127 OPS+, 3.3 bWAR), Helton was seldom above-average in his final years.

2007

Not coincidentally, the Rockies best seasons during Helton’s tenure came in the second half of the 2000s.  Although past his prime, Helton was finally receiving the support he never had during his best years.  Notably, fellow Mount RushWAR honoree Troy Tulowitzki, and Franchise Phenom Matt Holliday were in their primes, and among the best players in the game during this stretch.

In 2007, Helton’s bounce back campaign was a critical supporting piece for Tulo and Holliday.  The Rockies finished 89-73 in a tie with the San Diego Padres for the NL Wild Card.  In a tie-breaking Game 163, the Rockies earned a trip to the postseason with a 9-8 win in 13 innings.  Helton showed up big including a solo homer, two walks, and two RBI.

Although Helton wasn’t much of a factor, the Rockies swept the Phillies in the NLDS to advance in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.  

In the NLCS, Holliday was unconscious including two homers.  Helton again struggled, but the Rockies received improbably solid pitching performances en route to a sweep of the Diamondbacks.

In their first World Series appearance in franchise history, the Rockies were matched up with the AL Champion Boston Red Sox.  Themselves a 96-win juggernaut, the Red Sox proved too much for the upstart Rockies.  Boston dominated the first and third games while holding on for one-run wins in the second and fourth to conclude the sweep.  Helton was the Rockies best hitter during the series, posting a .333/.412/.467 line.

2009

After a brutal 2008 season, the Rockies dealt Holliday to Oakland in the off-season.  In an unexpected turn of events, the Rockies rebounded from the loss of Holliday by winning 90 games, and the Wild Card, for the second time in three years.  At 3.3 bWAR, Helton was the Rockies’ most productive position player aside from Tulo.

The 2009 postseason was not as eventful as 2007 had been.  The Rockies won Game Two of the NLDS, but the Phillies took the series in four games.

The End

Aside from a 2011 season in which he was a roughly average starting first baseman, Helton struggled mightily through the final four years of his career.  Todd Helton retired after the 2013 season as the clear-cut best player in Rockies history.

Legacy

In 17 seasons with the Rockies, Todd Helton climbed to the top as the greatest player in franchise history.  No player in the team’s comparatively short history has better represented the organization.  He won four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, and was a five-time All Star.

Helton is the Rockies all-time leader in games played (2247), runs (1401), hits (2519), doubles (592), homers (369), RBI (1406), and walks (1335).  

Helton has a strong case for enshrinement in Cooperstown.  By JAWS, Helton ranks as the 15th best first baseman in history.  While that places him below the lofty average mark for the position, he is surrounded by Hall of Famers on the list.

Helton hits the ballot for the first time heading into the 2019 vote.  Larry Walker’s voting results provide a potential guide for the way Helton’s candidacy may be viewed.  Although modern metrics strip away ballpark context, baseball writers have long struggled to separate the Coors Field effect when evaluating Rockies players for awards.  Hitters are often over-penalized and pitchers under-rewarded. 

For a franchise still awaiting its first Hall of Famer, there is nobody better to end the drought than Todd Helton.

Larry Walker (48.3)

Background

Larry Walker was born and raised in Maple Ridge, British Columbia.  In November, 1984, just weeks before his 18th birthday, Walker signed as an amateur free agent with the Montreal Expos.  

Walker spent most of 1985-1989 working his way up through the Expos minor league system.  By the time he was 19 in 1986, it was clear that he had some of the best upside of any prospect in the system.  He was in Double-A by age 20.  By the end of 1989, Walker made his big league debut at 22 years old.

Expos Career

By 1990, Larry Walker was in the big leagues to stay.  He quickly established himself as an above-average big leaguer during his rookie season.  He averaged 3.4 bWAR during his first two full seasons.

Walker broke out in 1992.  He hit .301/.353/.506, 141 OPS+ and produced 5.4 bWAR.  He made the All Star team and won both the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards.  With a fifth place MVP finish under his belt, it appeared that the 25-year-old Walker was on his way to superstardom surrounded by a talented young core in Montreal.

Although his offensive production slipped a bit in 1993, Walker still produced 4.4 bWAR to help lead the Expos to their second straight winning season.  He won his second straight Gold Glove.

The strike-shortened 1994 season forever altered the course of Expos history.  When the final game was played in August, the Expos were in first place with an incredible 74-40 record.  Walker himself was leading the league with 44 doubles, and producing at new heights with 151 OPS+.

Walker hit the open market after 1994.  When the strike ended, the dominoes began to fall.  Fellow stars Ken Hill, then Marquis Grissom, were traded with just weeks before the delayed opening day.  Two days after the Grissom trade, Walker signed as a free agent with the Rockies.  

Walker finished his Expos career having produced a .281/.353/.483 line, 128 OPS+, and 21.1 bWAR.  Dark days were ahead in Montreal but at age 28, Walker’s career was just getting started.

Rockies Career

Larry Walker made an immediate impact upon arriving in Denver.  The star right fielder filled a gaping hole in the middle of the Rockies lineup with the same type of well-rounded offensive production he had shown in Montreal.  Walker was immediately the best player on the team producing 131 OPS+ and 4.7 bWAR.

The 1995 Rockies finished 77-67 to win the National League Wild Card.  Walker was solid in the NLDS, hitting .214/.389/.429 against the Atlanta Braves.  Unfortunately, the Braves offense dominated the series.  Atlanta won in four games.  It would be Larry Walker’s first, and only, postseason series with the Rockies.

The Rockies finished above .500 again in 1996, but Walker played just 83 games.  Although still productive when he was on the field, his unavailability for half the season was too much for the team to overcome.

Rocky Mountain Peak

Healthy again for 1997, the 30-year-old Walker was about to embark on the best stretch of his entire career.  From 1997-1999 Walker averaged a preposterous .369/.451/.689 line, 167 OPS+, and 6.9 bWAR.  Injuries continued to nag at him.  He averaged just 137 games per year during this stretch.  When he was on the field, it was clear that Walker was among the very best players in the game.

1997 was his clear-cut career-year.  He led the league in homers (49), OBP (.452), slugging (.720), and bWAR (9.8).  Walker was once again and All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover.  He received 22 of 28 first place votes to win the National League MVP.

In 1998-1999, Walker won back-to-back batting titles hitting .363 and .379 respectively.  He paced the league in OBP (.458) and slugging (.710) again in 1999 as well.

From 1997-1999 Walker made three straight All Star teams, won three straight Gold Gloves, and won two Silver Sluggers.

Turn of the Century

Walker’s salary more than doubled from 1999 to 2000.  As he moved into his mid-30s, Walker’s critics increasingly pointed to his struggles with injury.  2000 was the worst season of his career up to that point as he played just 87 games and produced 110 OPS+.

Walker was largely healthy and again excellent from 2001-2003.  He averaged 140 games, .325/.431/.583, 145 OPS+, and 6.1 bWAR.  He won Gold Gloves in 2001-2002, and was an All Star in 2001.  Walker won his third batting title, hitting .350 in 2001.  Meanwhile the Rockies struggled to find pitching and won 73-74 games each season.

In 2004, the injury bug bit again.  Walker did not debut until late June.  Although he was productive when he returned, the Rockies were on the way to their worst season in a decade.  Despite producing 166 OPS+ in 38 games after coming off the disabled list, Walker was in limbo.  The Rockies weren’t in position to win, and his salary was increasingly a burden on a losing team. 

After he cleared waivers in early August, 2004, the Rockies traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals.  

Cardinals Career

Walker continued to mash upon arriving in St. Louis in August, 2004.  He took over in right field immediately, and produced 144 OPS+ in 44 games down the stretch.  The Cardinals won 105 games, and the NL Central.

Walker was a driving force behind their offensive success in the first two rounds of the 2004 playoffs, helping to propel St. Louis to the World Series.  Although Walker continued to rake during his only trip to the Fall Classic, the Cardinals were swept by a team of destiny coming out of Boston.

When available, Walker was again the regular right fielder in St. Louis in 2005.  In 100 games, he produced 130 OPS+.  The Cardinals won 100 games and the NL Central.  St. Louis was eliminated in the NLCS by the Houston Astros.

Walker’s contract expired after the 2005 season.  Although he was probably capable of continuing to contribute to a big league team offensively, a 17-year big league career had taken its toll.  Rather than return at age 39, Larry Walker hung them up for good.

Legacy

In 10 seasons with the Rockies, Larry Walker treated the fans to some of the most sublimely excellent play of that era.  A true five-tool talent, Walker contributed in every facet of the game for a decade.  In his career, Walker was a five-time All Star, won seven Gold Gloves, and three Silver Sluggers.  He won three batting titles, and an MVP for the Rockies.

Todd Helton’s longer career has afforded him most of the records for counting stats in Rockies history.  Walker’s absence of a notable decline phase leaves him the dominant player in rate stats.  Walker is the Rockies all-time leader in average (.334), OBP (.426), slugging (.618), and OPS+ (147).

While Helton’s Hall of Fame candidacy has not yet truly begun, Walker’s is long since underway.  2019 will be Walker’s ninth year on the ballot.  According to JAWS, Walker is the 10th best right fielder in history, and just above-average for Hall of Famers at the position.

Walker’s candidacy seems to have suffered from a combination of the aforementioned Coors Field effect, and the number of his seasons that were cut short by injuries.  He did experience a surge last year, jumping from 21.9% of the vote in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018.  With two years remaining, it’s unclear if he will be able to close the substantial gap to the 75% needed for enshrinement.

For those who saw him play, Larry Walker’s tremendous physical talent placed him among the game’s all-time great five-tool players.  Larry Walker was a Hall of Fame player.  Hopefully he receives the formal honors that go with it.

Troy Tulowitzki (39.4)

Background

Troy Tulowitzki was born and raised in the South Bay area of California.  A graduate of Fremont High School in Sunnyvale, Tulo headed south to play his college ball at Long Beach State University. 

A three-year starter for the Dirtbags, Tulo improved each year.  As a true shortstop with impact offensive potential as well, Tulo was a top prospect by the end of his junior year.  The Rockies took him seventh overall in the 2005 MLB Draft.  

In 2006, the Rockies sent Tulo directly to Double-A Tulsa in the Texas League.  Still just 21 years old, he lived up to his reputation in his first full season in pro ball.  By the end of August, the Rockies were ready to give him a trial at the big league level.  Although he struggled a bit in his first 25-game cup of coffee, it was clear Tulo was ready for the big leagues.

Rockies Career

Tulo made an immediate impact on the Rockies fortunes in 2007.  His stellar glove work and above-average offensive production immediately made him one of the best shortstops in baseball.  The rookie sensation produced 109 OPS+ and 6.8 bWAR (still a career-high).  

October, 2007

In a tie-breaking Game 163, Tulo was 4-7 with two doubles, a triple, three runs, and an RBI as the Rockies won a 13-inning thriller 9-8 in Denver.

In the NLDS, the Rockies swept the Phillies.  Tulo doubled and homered in a 10-5 Game Two victory, but otherwise struggled at the plate.

Tulo’s offensive woes continued in the NLCS.  Fellow Franchise Phenom Matt Holliday caught fire to carry the team to a sweep of the division-rival Diamondbacks.  

Tulo fared better in the World Series, producing .718 OPS.  Unfortunately, the Boston Red Sox took one-run wins in the second and fourth games of the series to complete the sweep.  

2009

Tulo experienced a rather dramatic sophomore slump in 2008.  He went from being one of the best players in the game the year before to barely above replacement-level as he was both injured and ineffective.  The team struggled along with him, and dealt Holliday to Oakland in the off-season.

Entering 2009, it was unclear what Rockies fans could expect from their young shortstop, or the team as a whole.  Tulo answered the bell emphatically.  Although his defense would never again reach the lofty heights of his rookie year, Tulo proved he had another gear offensively.  In 151 games, he produced 131 OPS+ and 6.5 bWAR.  He finished fifth in the MVP voting.

In an improbable turn of events, the Rockies rebounded from the loss of Holliday by winning 90 games, and the Wild Card, for the second time in three years.  Tulo was once again the best player on a playoff team.

The 2009 postseason was not as eventful as 2007 had been.  The Rockies won Game Two of the NLDS, but the Phillies took the series in four games.

2010-2015

After making the postseason in two of his first three years, it appeared that a team built around Troy Tulowitzki might have a chance to be a perennial playoff contender in Colorado.  As fate would have it, the Rockies would have just one more winning season, and never again made the playoffs, during Tulo’s tenure.

For his part, Tulo’s play was not the problem.  He was a consistently above-average, and often excellent, hitter while remaining a plus defender.  Tulo made the All Star team in five of the six seasons.  He won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards in 2010-2011.  He was arguably the best shortstop in the game for much of this period.

By 2015, the Rockies were in the midst of their fifth straight losing season.  Now 30, Tulo was still productive when healthy, but had averaged just 88 games per season in the previous three years.  The baseball world began to wonder if Colorado’s best chance to build a winner had to begin with trading the face of their franchise.  

On July 28, 2015 the Rockies dealt the best shortstop in their history to the Toronto Blue Jays.  Colorado accepted a package of three talented young arms headlined by Jeff Hoffman in the hopes that they could begin to build a better pitching staff.  Although the team returned to the postseason in 2017-2018, the players acquired for Tulo had little to do with the team’s success.  In the end, the financial resources regained by clearing the remaining five guaranteed seasons from Tulo’s contract were probably more important than the prospects.

Blue Jays Career

Although his offense never quite blossomed as Toronto hoped down the stretch, Tulo’s defensive play made him a welcomed upgrade at shortstop in 2015.  The Jays finished the year with 93 wins to take the AL East.

On a star-studded roster, Tulo was more of a supporting player in October.  In a drama-packed ALDS series, the Blue Jays defeated the Rangers in five games.  The 2015 ALCS was probably the best postseason series of Tulo’s career up to that point.  He posted .826 OPS, but the Blue Jays were defeated in six games by the Royals.

Tulo was above-average for the Jays again in 2016.  Toronto finished 89-73, then defeated the Orioles in the Wild Card Game.  Tulo hit .462/.462/.846 to help lead the offense as the Jays swept Texas in an ALDS rematch.  The ALCS was a different story both for Tulo, and the Jays.  Pitching dominated on both sides, but the Indians defeated Toronto in five games.

Injuries limited Tulo to just 66 games in 2017.  He then missed the entire 2018 season while still working to get healthy.  With two guaranteed seasons remaining, time will tell whether one of the great shortstops of this generation has anything left in the tank.

Legacy

In 10 seasons with the Colorado Rockies, Troy Tulowitzki cemented his status as the greatest shortstop in franchise history.  Tulo was a remarkable defensive player at a premium position, who at times, was also among the game’s best hitters.  He is a five-time All Star who won two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers.

Tulo is the Rockies career leader in Defensive bWAR.

Up until the age of 31, Tulo had the look of a sure-fire Hall of Famer.  Entering his age-34 season, there remains a two-part question:

1. How much baseball does Troy Tulowitzki’s body have left?
2. Has he done enough already to earn consideration for Cooperstown?

Only time will provide the answer to the first question.  As for the second, the answer appears to be ‘probably not’.  JAWS ranks him as the 26th best shortstop in history.  While he would not be the least-accomplished shortstop to earn enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, there are also a few with better credentials who were not selected.  He fares a little better when considering just his peak.  Even then, he is probably below-average for Hall of Famers at the position.

Tulo’s candidacy appears to rest then on his ability to return to the field healthy for at least a few more seasons of above-average production.  At this point, the probability of that is anybody’s guess.

Regardless of where he may end up among baseball’s all-time greats, Troy Tulowitzki will long be remembered as one of the best players the Rockies have ever had.

Nolan Arenado (33.1)

Background

Nolan Arenado was born and raised in Southern California.  A graduate of El Toro High School in Lake Forest, Arenado was selected in the second round (59th overall) of the 2009 draft.  Arenado was promoted a level at a time during a methodical climb through the Rockies system.  

The early scouting reports on Arenado in the minor leagues portrayed a player who was likely to be a talented hitter with a good approach and above-average power.  Questions persisted about his defensive skills and whether or not he would be able to be an adequate third baseman.  

His offensive development in the minor leagues followed the early reports.  He controlled the strike zone well and racked up doubles.  By the time he was 22 years old, Arenado’s defense had improved dramatically.  With that final piece of his development complete, Arenado was on on his way to the big leagues.

Rockies Career

Nolan Arenado made his big league debut at the end of April, 2013.  In a surprising reversal from his early days as a pro, Arenado’s early value was mostly wrapped up in his glove work.  A well below-average hitter in his first big league campaign, Arenado still produced 3.8 bWAR on the strength of his excellent defensive play.  He won his first Gold Glove as a rookie.

Arenado’s power began to show up more consistently during 2014.  He finished the year at 115 OPS+ and 4.1 bWAR despite playing just 111 games.  He won his second Gold Glove.

Breakout

Arenado consolidated his skills in 2015.  Now 24 years old, he was already regarded as perhaps the best defensive third baseman in baseball.  2015 brought the offensive breakout the Rockies had hoped for.  Arenado produced 124 OPS+ and utilized the friendly environment of Coors Field to lead the NL in homers (42) and RBI (130).  He won his third straight Gold Glove, and his first Silver Slugger.  He was also an All Star for the first time and finished eighth in the MVP race.

2016 was a near carbon copy of the previous year.  Arenado produced 129 OPS+.  He led the league in homers (41) and RBI (133) for the second straight season.  His 6.6 bWAR made him the second most productive player in the NL, although he finished fifth for MVP.  For the second straight year he was an All Star, Gold Glover, and Silver Slugger.

Arenado was better still in 2017.  He produced 130 OPS+, and his 7.2 bWAR established a new career-high.  His 43 doubles were tops in the NL.  For the third straight year he was an All Star, Gold Glover, and Silver Slugger.  He finished fourth in the MVP voting.

The 2017 Rockies finished 87-75 to earn a spot in the National League Wild Card Game.  Arenado hit a solo-homer and scored twice, but the Diamondbacks took the game 11-8.

2018

After a brief taste of postseason baseball in 2017, the Rockies were primed to take another step forward in 2018.  Arenado had the best offensive season of his career, producing 133 OPS+ and winning his third NL homerun crown with 38.  He made his fourth straight All Star team.

Arenado’s brilliance was complimented run for run by fellow Franchise Phenom Trevor Story at shortstop.  The emergence of Kyle Freeland and German Marquez in the starting rotation gave the Rockies perhaps the best 1-2 punch in franchise history.  The Rockies won 91 games, and finished tied for first place with the Dodgers in the NL West.  

In Game 163, Arenado and Story hit back-to-back solo homers off Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen in the ninth inning, but the Dodgers held on for a 5-2 win.

The Rockies then hopped on a plane and flew overnight to Chicago for the NL Wild Card Game against the Cubs.  Colorado struck early with a sacrifice fly from Arenado in the top of the first inning.  The Cubs tied the game in the bottom of the eighth.  The Colorado bullpen was tough as nails, and the Rockies left Chicago a 2-1 winner in 13 innings to advance to the NLDS.

In their first NLDS appearance in nine seasons, the Rockies offense was stifled by the deep and versatile pitching staff of the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Rockies scored just two runs in the three-game Brewers sweep.

Looking Ahead

As one of the few Mount RushWAR faces across the league who is still active with the team he represents, Nolan Arenado’s Rockies legacy is unfinished.  Arenado will be just 28 years old in 2019.  The Rockies have one year of guaranteed team-control remaining.

Reports from the immediate aftermath of their NLDS loss to the Brewers indicate that there have been no formal extension talks between the Rockies and the best third baseman in their history.  As one of the most consistently excellent players in baseball over the past five seasons, Arenado’s market value is through the roof heading into what could be his final year in Colorado.

While he has already established himself as one of the greatest players in Rockies history, a lengthy contract extension could allow him to challenge for a higher spot on the mountain.  It’s not hard to imagine him passing Tulo in career WAR with the Rockies in 2019.  Passing Walker and Helton represent increasingly tougher challenges, but they are both theoretically in reach under the right circumstances. 

With a contract extension and continued good health, it’s entirely possible that Nolan Arenado could one day climb to the top of the Rockie Mountain version of Mount RushWAR.