Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.
Check out the previous installments in the series:
15. Lance Berkman
JAWS: 45.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)
Lance Berkman was born and raised in the Texas Triangle. A graduate of Canyon High School in New Braunfels, TX northeast of San Antonio, Berkman played his college ball in Houston at Rice University. The Houston Astros selected Berkman 16th overall in the 1997 draft. A Baseball America Top-100 Prospect from 1998-2000, Berkman advanced quickly through Houston’s minor league system. He made his big league debut in July, 1999.
A switch-hitter with power and patience, Berkman quickly established himself as one of the top hitters in the National League. In 12 seasons with the Astros, Berkman hit .296/.410/.594, 146 OPS+. He led the league in doubles in 2001 (55) and 2008 (46) and RBI in 2002 (128).
Berkman contributed to four Astros playoff teams including the 2005 National League Champions. He was the best player by bWAR on the 2001 N.L. Central Champions, and the 2004 N.L. Wild Card winner.
With the team struggling in 2010, the Astros traded Berkman to the Yankees at the trade deadline. Serving primarily as a DH, Berkman helped New York secure the Wild Card spot.
Berkman signed with the St. Louis Cardinals heading into 2011. It would turn out to be one of the best offensive seasons of his career. The 2011 Cardinals turned a Wild Card berth into the 12th World Series championship in franchise history. Berkman was a driving force in their victory over the Texas Rangers, hitting .423/.516/.577 with nine runs and five RBI in the seven-game series.
The Cardinals won the Wild Card again in 2012, but Berkman played just 32 games as injuries took their toll. He finished his career with the Texas Rangers in 2013.
Hall of Fame?
Lance Berkman was a marvelous all around player during his 15-year career. With a career line of .293/.406/.537, 144 OPS+, Berkman was clearly one of the most dominant hitters of his era. He was also a versatile defensive player who played at least 166 games at all three outfield spots as well as first base during his career.
He was a six-time All Star who received MVP votes in seven seasons including third-place finishes in 2002 and 2006.
In his first year on the ballot, it is unclear how the voters will treat Berkman. He spent much of his career surrounded by fellow Hall of Fame caliber talents. As a result, it is possible that he was underappreciated during his career.
Berkman ranks as the 20th best left fielder by JAWS. His career 144 OPS+ puts him well above the average for Hall of Fame left fielders. Minimal defensive value, and a comparatively short career, are probably enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.
On a loaded ballot, it’s possible Berkman fails to achieve the 5% needed to remain eligible beyond this year. He probably deserves better than that, but either way, it’s hard to see him standing out among the other stellar hitters on the ballot at this time.
14. Andy Pettitte
JAWS: 47.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Andy Pettitte was a 1990 graduate of Deer Park High School in Texas. The New York Yankees selected him as a draft-and-follow candidate in the 22nd round that June. Pettitte enrolled in San Jacinto College in Houston and showed enough in the spring of 1991 that the Yankees signed him that May. Pettitte climbed methodically through the Yankees system.
By 1995, Pettitte was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He made his debut that season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting, and helping New York to the Wild Card.
The Yankees made the playoffs every season from 1995-2003. With Pettitte providing a steady presence in their rotation, New York won the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000. Pettite finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young four times during this period.
After a tough loss to the Marlins in the 2003 World Series, Pettitte became a free agent. Entering his age-32 season, Pettitte returned home to pitch for the Houston Astros. From 2004-2006 with the Astros, Pettitte was one of the best pitchers in the National League. He helped the team to Wild Card berths in 2004-2005, and the National League pennant in 2005.
After the 2006 season, Pettitte returned to the Yankees. He spent most of the next seven years pitching for the Yankees, although he sat out the 2011 season entirely. Pettitte pitched for four more Yankees playoff teams during this stretch, and won his fifth World Series in 2009.
Hall of Fame?
Andy Pettitte finished his 18-year career with a record of 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, and 3.74 FIP. He was a three-time All Star who finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting five times.
In his first year on the ballot, Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy is probably the dividing mark for the members of the storied Yankees dynasty of that era. While Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are no doubt first-ballot Hall of Famers, the team’s success did little for the candidacies of Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, both of whom have already fallen off the ballot.
Pettitte is pretty clearly in the middle of those five. He will surely show better than Posada or Williams, but won’t achieve the same type of perhaps unanimous support as Jeter or Rivera.
Pettitte falls considerably short of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher. He is probably one of the top-100 starters in history, but that hardly ensures enshrinement in Cooperstown.
My gut feeling is that history will struggle with how to properly view Pettitte’s career. At different times, he was both one of the best pitchers in the game, and highly overrated. There is little doubt that if he had played for another organization, his resume would fall short as his win-loss record and postseason exploits are pillars of his case. At the same time, how many of the five Yankees championships he helped secure would have been won without him?
Of course, we have not even mentioned Pettitte’s admitted use of Human Growth Hormone in the middle of his career. For a player whose case is fringy to begin with, his PED use is probably too much to overcome in the current climate. If he can hang around on the ballot for a full ten-year stretch, it is possible that changing views on both PED’s, and the modern starting pitcher, could help his chances in the long run. For now, it’s hard to imagine him getting in any time soon.
13. Gary Sheffield
JAWS: 49.3 (56.8 Average HOF RF)
Gary Sheffield was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1986 graduate of Hillsborough High School, Sheffield was drafted sixth overall by the Milwaukee Brewers. Originally a shortstop, Sheffield proved to be a highly advanced offensive player in his ascension through the Brewers system. He made his big league debut late in 1988 at just 19.
The club shifted him to third base, in the big leagues, and outside of a three-win season in 1990, Sheffield struggled through most of his time with the Brewers. By the end of the 1991 season, his career OPS+ was 95 while averaging just 90 games in his three full seasons.
In Spring Training, 1992 the Brewers traded Sheffield to the San Diego Padres. With a clean start in a new organization, Sheffield thrived. He won the N.L. batting title in 1992 with a line of .330/.385/.580, 168 OPS+. In 1993, the Padres struggled, Sheffield slowed, and the All Star third baseman was traded to the Florida Marlins for a package including future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman.
Sheffield spent more time with the Marlins that anywhere else in his career. The Marlins moved him to the outfield where he would remain for the rest of his career. From 1993-1998, he hit .288/.426/.543, 156 OPS+ and produced 13.2 bWAR. He led the N.L. in OBP (.465) and OPS+ (189) in 1996.
An expansion team in 1993, the Marlins struggled to find their footing until 1997. That year they won 92 games and the N.L. Wild Card en route to the World Series. As the team’s best hitter in the regular season as well as the playoffs, no one played a larger role in Florida’s first World Series championship than Gary Sheffield.
Marlins ownership infamously tore down their championship core heading into 1998. Sheffield was traded to the Dodgers as part of a massive package that temporarily resulted in Mike Piazza joining the Marlins.
From 1998-2001 in Los Angeles, Sheffield remained one of the best hitters in baseball. He posted a .312/.424/.573, 160 OPS+ line producing 17.0 bWAR. The Dodgers never made the postseason during Sheffield’s tenure and traded him to the Braves before the 2002 season.
Sheffield posted 151 OPS+ over his two seasons in Atlanta. The 2002-2003 Braves had nearly identical seasons winning 101 games, the N.L. East title, and ultimately losing in the first round of the playoffs.
A free agent after the 2003 season, Sheffield signed with the New York Yankees. From 2004-2006 he produced 135 OPS+ and was part of three straight A.L. East championships.
After he was derailed by injuries in 2006, the Yankees traded him to the Detroit Tigers. Primarily a DH during his two seasons in Detroit, Sheffield was still an above-average hitter, but had slowed considerably. The Tigers released him prior to the 2009 season as the slugger sat with 499 career homers.
Sheffield quickly signed with the New York Mets. He played 100 games in the final season of his career, hitting 10 homers to give him a career total of 509.
Hall of Fame?
In his remarkable 22-year career, Gary Sheffield hit .292/.393/.514, 140 OPS+. His 509 career home runs rank 26th all-time. Sheffield was a nine-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes seven times including three seasons in which he finished second or third (1992, 2003, 2004).
Sheffield ranks as the 23rd best right fielder in history by JAWS. Although he ranks above 11 Hall of Famers at the position, he stands little chance of induction at this time.
In 2004, Sheffield admitted to steroid use as part of the BALCO investigation. Players with better statistical resumes who have been linked to steroid use have failed to secure the support necessary for election. Like Pettitte, this reality is probably too much for Sheffield to overcome.
Now in his fifth year of eligibility, Sheffield has some time for the ballot, and sentiment, to shift in his favor. After securing just 11% of the vote in 2018, he may have too far to go in too short a time.
12. Sammy Sosa
JAWS: 51.2 (56.8 Average HOF RF)
Sammy Sosa was born and raised in San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Texas Rangers in July, 1985. As a young player, Sosa was wiry strong and explosive, but raw. His tantalizing physical tools allowed him to climb through the Rangers system. Despite the obvious flaws in his game, notably a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, Sosa made his big league debut with Texas at 20.
That same season, the Rangers used Sosa as part of a package to land White Sox Franchise Phenom Harold Baines at the trade deadline. Sosa continued to flash his physical talent with the White Sox, but failed to make significant progress in refining his game. Sosa was essentially a replacement-level player during his time with the White Sox.
Prior to the 1992 season, the Sox made a decision that would alter the fate of both Chicago franchises. They traded Sammy Sosa to the Cubs as the headline piece for All Star outfielder George Bell. At 32, Bell had just two seasons left in the big leagues while the 23-year-old Sosa would go on to become one of the best players in Cubs history.
Sosa steadily improved during his early years with the Cubs, settling in as an above-average hitter by 1993. In 1995, Sosa began a streak of nine straight seasons in which he would received MVP votes. He was a 30/30 player in both 1993 and 1995. He hit 40 homers for the first time in 1996.
Everything changed for Sammy Sosa, and Major League Baseball, in 1998. During that famed summer, Sosa and Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire embarked on their epic chase of Roger Maris‘s single-season home run record. McGwire finished with 70 to set the new record, but Sosa also broke the old record with 66 of his own. Sosa led the league in runs (134) and RBI (158). The Cubs won the N.L. Wild Card, and Sosa the MVP.
Sosa remained one of the most feared sluggers in baseball for years. He hit 63 homers in 1999, and 64 in 2001, making him the only player in history with three 60-homer seasons. When the Cubs won the N.L. Central in 2003, Sosa was still their best hitter.
In 13 seasons with the Cubs, Sosa hit .284/.358/.569, 139 OPS+, and 545 homers.
His final years in Chicago were marred by a suspension for corking his bat, increased suspicion about steroid usage, and alienation of the organization he had carried for a decade.
Sosa was traded to Baltimore before the 2006 season. He sat out 2007. He then returned to hit 21 homers for the Rangers in 2008 allowing him to eclipse the 600 mark for his career.
Hall of Fame?
In his 18-year career, Sammy Sosa hit .273/.344/.534, 128 OPS+. His 609 career homers rank ninth all-time. Sosa was a seven-time All Star who won six Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes nine times. He finished second in 2001, and won the award during his incredible 1998 season.
Sosa ranks as the 18th best right fielder by JAWS, five spots ahead of Sheffield, and above two more Hall of Famers. Despite his on-paper advantages, he has actually fared worse than Sheffield up to this point in the process.
Even more so than Sheffield, Sosa is a poster boy for the steroid era. Despite suspicions that engulfed the late stages of his career, and a June, 2009 New York Times report claiming he tested positive in 2003, Sosa has remained evasive on the subject in retirement. The issue remains the cause of friction with Cubs ownership to this day.
Now in his seventh year on the ballot, Sosa has even less time for things to swing in his favor than Sheffield. He earned just 7.8% of the vote in 2018.
11. Todd Helton
JAWS: 53.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)
Todd Helton was the 8th overall pick by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Tennessee in the 1995 draft.
He played his entire 17-year career with the Rockies. His career line of .316/.414/.539, 133 OPS+, and 61.2 bWAR makes him the best player in franchise history.
I have already posted a detailed recap of Todd Helton’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.
Hall of Fame?
Todd Helton was a five-time All Star who won four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.
Helton has a strong case for enshrinement in Cooperstown. By JAWS, Helton ranks as the 15th best first baseman in history. While that places him just below the lofty average mark for the position, he is surrounded by Hall of Famers on the list.
2019 is Helton’s first year on the ballot. Now in his ninth year on the ballot, Larry Walker’s results provide a potential guide for the way Helton’s candidacy may be viewed. Although modern metrics strip away ballpark context, baseball writers have long struggled to separate the Coors Field effect when evaluating Rockies players for awards. Hitters are often over-penalized and pitchers under-rewarded.
Walker is running out of time in his bid to be elected by the writers, but Helton figures to benefit in the long run as the writers grapple with Walker’s candidacy. At some point, these two players will force BBWAA members to determine what, exactly, a Rockies hitter would have to do to earn their vote. How preposterous do the numbers have to be?
In my world, both Helton and Walker are Hall of Fame players. I am cautiously optimistic that they will each be recognized as such at some point in the future.
