Blue Jays Archives - Franchise Phenoms

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (1-2)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 3-5 by JAWS. Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Larry Walker

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

2. Roger Clemens

JAWS: 102.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roger Clemens was born in Dayton, Ohio. When he was as sophomore in high school, he moved to Sugar Land, Texas. After graduating from Spring Woods High School in Houston, Clemens attended San Jacinto Junior College before transferring to the University of Texas. After two excellent seasons at Texas, the Boston Red Sox selected him 19th overall in the 1983 draft.

As an advanced college arm, Clemens rose quickly through the Boston system. He made his big league debut in May, 1984. Clemens quickly established himself as one of the most promising young arms in the game.

By 1986, Clemens ascended to the top of the baseball world. In 33 starts, he led the league in wins (24), ERA (2.48), and WHIP (0.97). The Red Sox cruised to the A.L. East title and advanced to the World Series before losing to the Mets. He was the unanimous A.L. Cy Young winner and took 19 of 28 first-place votes for MVP to secure that honor as well.

Clemens was again dominant in 1987. In 36 starts, he finished with a 2.97 ERA and 256 strikeouts in 281.2 innings. He led the league in wins (20), complete games (18), shutouts (7), FIP (2.91), and strikeout/walk ratio (3.08). He received 21 of 28 first-place votes to win his second straight Cy Young.

In his late-20s, Clemens would solidify his legacy as one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history. From 1988-1992, Clemens posted an average line of 253 innings, 18 wins, 236 strikeouts, 2.62 ERA, 159 ERA+, 2.53 FIP, and 8.0 bWAR. He was an All Star in four of the five seasons and finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting in each of his All Star seasons.

The Red Sox won the A.L. East in both 1988 and 1990. Both times they were swept by the Oakland Athletics in the ALCS.

Clemens won his third, and final, Cy Young with the Red Sox in 1991. He led the league in ERA (2.62), innings (271.1), strikeouts (241), and ERA+ (165).

From 1993-1996, Clemens clearly slowed down a bit as he entered his 30s. He was healthy enough to average 186 innings per season, and effective enough to post a 130 ERA+ over that stretch. Although he was still one of the best pitchers in the game, he appeared to be trending the wrong direction.

When Clemens hit the open-market as a free agent after the 1996 season, both he and the team seemed ready for a change. The best Red Sox pitcher since Cy Young signed a three-year contract with the division-rival Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto

Clearly motivated by the doubters in Boston, and nationwide, Clemens responded in a big way. During his two seasons with Toronto, he was again the best pitcher in baseball. Clemens won back-to-back Cy Youngs for the second time in his career winning 41 games and posting an absurd 196 ERA+ in the process.

Even with the best pitcher on the planet, Toronto failed to make the playoffs in 1997-1998. With just one year remaining on his contract, Toronto dealt Clemens to the New York Yankees just before the 1999 season.

New York

From 1999-2003, Clemens alternated brilliance and mediocrity in New York. He averaged 114 ERA+ over that stretch and was twice an All Star. He won his sixth Cy Young on the strength of a 20-3 record in 2001.

The Yankees made the postseason every year, and advanced to the World Series four times. In 1999 and 2000, Roger Clemens helped pitch Boston’s greatest rival to World Series championships. It was salt in the wounds of a Red Sox Nation still burdened by the Curse of the Bambino.

Houston

A free agent again after 2003, Clemens was headed for his age-41 season. Although it appeared he would retire, Clemens instead opted to follow his friend and teammate Andy Pettitte to the Houston Astros.

Clemens took to the National League very well, compiling a 38-18 record and 180 ERA+ over three seasons in Houston. He won his seventh, and final, Cy Young in 2004. He was just the fourth player at the time to win the award in both leagues. He helped pitch the Astros to their first World Series appearance in franchise history in 2005, but they were swept by the Chicago White Sox.

Semi-Retirement and Retirement

By 2006, Clemens was looking for opportunities to pitch for contenders with reduced overall levels of commitment as he apparently contemplated outright retirement. Both 2006 with Houston, and 2007 in a return engagement with the Yankees, were shortened seasons in which Clemens did not pitch until June.

Although he was still effective in these reduced seasons, the rigors of his brilliant 24-year career had taken their toll.

Roger Clemens retired after the 2007 season.

Hall of Fame?

Roger Clemens is one of the few pitchers in history for whom you could make a legitimate case as the best hurler of all-time.

Over his incredible 24 seasons in the big leagues, Clemens cemented his place among baseball’s all-time greats.

Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards, the most in history. His 139.0 bWAR as a pitcher is third-most in history, and the most since integration. He is third all-time with 4672 strikeouts, and ninth in wins at 354.

For all of his on-field brilliance, Clemens is held back by a variety of other factors that have cast a dark cloud over his legacy. His personal temperament and character have been called into question in a variety of contexts. On the baseball side specifically, the court of public opinion has pretty clearly judged him guilty of steroid use during his career as well.

Each new round of Hall of Fame balloting has the potential to provide new information for how the public perception of his career may, or may not, be changing. Clemens climbed to 57.3% of the ballot in 2018. With four years remaining, it is unclear whether or not he will be able to make up the precious ground needed to get him to the 75% mark required for enshrinement in Cooperstown.

As the baseball world continues to try to sort through the mess left in the aftermath of the Steroid Era, Clemens’s legacy remains in limbo. Regardless of one’s personal opinion on how to judge these players, Roger Clemens is one of the most accomplished pitchers in big league history. However you choose to remember him, he will be remembered. In the end, that may be all that’s left for the Rocket.

1. Barry Bonds

JAWS: 117.8 (53.5 Average HOF LF)

Barry Bonds was born into Major League Baseball. The son of All Star outfielder Bobby Bonds, Barry was a second round pick of the San Francisco Giants out of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo in 1982. When the Bonds family and the Giants ended up $5,000 apart in the negotiations for his signing bonus, Barry enrolled at Arizona State. After an excellent career for the Sun Devils, Barry was drafted sixth overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1985. Bonds began the 1986 season in Triple-A, but was in the big leagues by June.

Bonds immediately established himself as one of the best all around players in the game. His broad base of tools and skills allowed him to average 124 OPS+ and 5.9 bWAR from 1986-1989. Although the Pirates turned in just one winning season in his first four, Bonds emerged as the center piece of a young, talented roster that would dominate the N.L. East in the early 90s.

1990 marked the first of three straight N.L. East championships for the Pirates. Each time they were defeated in the NLCS, first by the Cincinnati Reds, then by the Atlanta Braves in back-to-back seasons. Bonds won his first MVP award in 1990 when he led the league in slugging (.565) and OPS+ (170) while hitting 33 homers and stealing 52 bases. In 1991, he followed it up with league leading marks in OBP (.410) and OPS+ (160) en route to a second place MVP finish. In 1992, he won his second MVP after leading the league in runs (109), walks (127), OBP (.456), slugging (.624), and OPS+ (204).

San Francisco

When Barry Bonds hit free agency after the 1992 season, he was unquestionably the best player available. Entering his age-28 season, he was still young, but his personality, and asking price, limited the number of teams willing to pursue him. The new ownership group in San Francisco signed Bonds to the largest contract in baseball at $43 million over six years.

In San Francisco, Bonds remained one of the most transcendent players in the game. Over the life of his initial contract from 1993-1998, Bonds averaged .307/.445/.617, 182 OPS+, 39 homers, and 32 stolen bases. He was an All Star each season, and won his third MVP in 1993. Despite his brilliant performance, the Giants reached the playoffs just once, a division championship followed by first round defeat in 1997.

Following the 1998 home run craze, baseball had clearly undergone a paradigm shift. The high tide of offensive explosion experienced league wide during the previous decade swept the nation, including Barry Bonds.

By 2000, Bonds, now 35, was poised to take his game to another level. From 2000-2004, Bonds averaged .339/.535/.781, 241 OPS+, 52 homers, 174 walks, and 10.2 bWAR. It was the most utterly dominant stretch of offensive play in baseball history. He won the MVP each year from 2001-2004. The Giants made the playoffs in 2000, 2002, and 2003, peaking with an N.L. pennant in 2002.

Old age and injuries slowed Bonds into his 40s. Although no longer the otherworldly force he had been earlier in the decade, he was still among the best hitters in the game. In his final three seasons, from 2005-2007, Bonds averaged .274/.464/.561, 163 OPS+, but just 90 games. After he broke Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record in late 2007, his career came to an ignominious end. With mounting legal troubles presenting an ever-present cloud over his play, Bonds was not offered a contract to play in 2008. Despite coming off a season in which he led the league in walks (132), and OBP (.480), Barry Bonds never played again.

Hall of Fame?

Barry Bonds is arguably the best player to ever play Major League Baseball. His 162.8 bWAR is fourth best in history, and the highest of any player since integration. His seven MVP awards are the most in history (no other player has more than three). He is baseball’s all-time leader in home runs (762), and walks (2,558). He ranks in the top five in a host of other categories.

Like Clemens, the entirety of the argument around Bonds’s place in baseball history is centered on his steroid use during his peak seasons.

Bonds and Clemens are both trending fairly well in the ballots that have been made publicly available so far. Unfortunately, they have not gained much support from returning voters, a metric which pretty clearly indicates that many are not changing their opinions on the candidacies of two of the game’s greatest players.

The symmetry of their careers and candidacies is remarkable. Each player has a claim to the title of best player in history on his respective side of the ball. Each player dominated the game on a level that may never be matched. In the end, their fates are inextricably tied together. They have trended almost identically in the Hall of Fame balloting, and it’s not hard to see that this is a neither, or both, proposition with respect to Cooperstown.

For Hall of Fame junkies, there is perhaps no more important issue to monitor over the coming years.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (6-8)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

8. Edgar Martinez

JAWS: 56.0 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)

Edgar Martinez was born in New York. As a child, he moved to Puerto Rico to live with his grandparents. Martinez remained in Puerto Rico through his teenage years and graduated from Dorado High School. In December 1982, at the age of 20, the Seattle Mariners signed him out of a tryout camp in his hometown. Edgar methodically climbed through the Seattle system and made his big league debut in 1987.

Although he debuted in 1987, by the end of 1989, Martinez had just 280 big league plate appearances to his credit. Despite his clear mastery of the Triple-A level, Martinez was stuck. Although the Mariners received virtually no production at third base during those years, it took the team until 1990 (Martinez’s age-27 season) to give him regular at-bats at the big league level.

Once his path to playing time was cleared, Martinez immediately established himself as an excellent offensive player, and credible third baseman. From 1990-1991, he averged 135 OPS+ and 5.8 bWAR. Edgar broke out in 1992, winning his first batting title (.343) and leading the league in doubles (46) en route to his first All Star selection, and a Silver Slugger.

A freak leg injury in a 1993 pre-season exhibition game limited him to just 42 games that season. Martinez was healthier, and more productive, in 1994. Still, he averaged just 116 OPS+ during his shortened age 30-31 seasons.

Heading into 1995, it was fair to wonder if Edgar Martinez’s best days were already behind him. Instead, Martinez ended up being the best offensive player on a resurgent Seattle club that won the A.L. West. He led the league in hitting, OBP, and OPS+ with a .356/.479/.628, 185 OPS+ line. His 121 runs and 52 doubles were also tops in the A.L. Seattle beat the Yankees in the ALDS, but lost in six games to Cleveland in the ALCS.

Rather than suffer a steep decline in his 30s, Martinez proved to be better with age. From 1995-2003, he averaged .321/.438/.558, 159 OPS+, and 5.2 bWAR. Playing almost exclusively as a Designated Hitter, Martinez cemented his legacy as one of the greatest hitters of his generation.

Seattle won the A.L. West again in 1997 and 2001, as well as the 2000 Wild Card, but never made the World Series during Martinez’s career. He retired after the 2004 season.

Hall of Fame?

Edgar Martinez spent his entire 18-year career with the Seattle Mariners. At a time when the team could not hang onto their other stars, Edgar was a consistently excellent, and stable force for their organization. He hit .312/.418/.515, 147 OPS+ for his career. He was a seven-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers, and two batting titles. Edgar received MVP votes five times, peaking at third place in his historic 1995 season.

JAWS treats Edgar Martinez as a third-baseman, ranking him 11th all-time. In reality, Edgar served as Seattle’s DH in 1403 games, and made less than half that number of appearances in the field.

Although other Hall of Famers such as Frank Thomas and Harold Baines spent significant parts of their careers at DH, Martinez has spent the last ten years as the first pure DH to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate. His lack of defensive contributions, combined with his comparatively low counting stats stemming from his late breakthrough in the big leagues have held him back despite his excellent rate numbers.

After receiving 70.4% of the vote in his 9th season a year ago, it appears that Edgar Martinez will be elected by the BBWAA in his 10th, and final, year on the ballot. He would join former Mariners teammates Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson in representing a golden age of Mariners baseball in Cooperstown.

7. Scott Rolen

JAWS: 56.9 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)

Scott Rolen was born and raised in Southern Indiana. After graduating from Jasper High School in 1993, Rolen was a second round draft pick of the Philadelphia Phillies. By the time his first full professional season had concluded, Rolen was already recognized as one of the top prospects in baseball. He was ranked in Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects three straight seasons beginning in 1995.

Rolen made his big league debut in 1996, and became an everyday player in 1997 at the age of 22. He won the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1997, producing 4.5 bWAR and 121 OPS+.

He was better still in 1998. Rolen combined a 139 OPS+ with Gold Glove defense to produce 6.7 bWAR. It was his best season with the Phillies.

In seven seasons with Philadelphia, Rolen hit .282/.373/.504, 126 OPS+, and produced 29.3 bWAR. The Phillies failed to make the postseason during Rolen’s tenure. With their star third baseman heading towards free agency, the club traded Rolen at the 2002 deadline to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Upon arriving in St. Louis, Rolen became a driving force in the Cardinals’ runaway effort to win the N.L. Central. A contract extension kept Rolen in St. Louis for six seasons. He would go on to hit .286/.370/.510, 127 OPS+, and produce 25.9 bWAR. The Cardinals made the playoffs in four of his six seasons, won two National League pennants, and the 2006 World Series.

After 2007, coming off his second down year in three, the Cardinals swapped Rolen for Toronto third baseman Troy Glaus. Rolen rebounded in Toronto, but with the Jays out of contention in 2009, they traded him to the Cincinnati Reds in July.

Rolen spent the final three-plus seasons of his storied career in Cincinnati. Although he had just one star caliber season for the Reds, he did contribute to two N.L. Central titles.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Scott Rolen hit .281/.364/.490, 122 OPS+. He was a consistently excellent defensive player, and finished his career 12th in games played at third base. Rolen was a seven-time All Star who won eight Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes four times, including a fourth place finish in 2004.

Rolen ranks as the 10th best third baseman by JAWS, one spot ahead of Edgar Martinez. Unlike Martinez, Rolen is a full-fledged third baseman, and ultimately the superior overall player. Every eligible third baseman ranked above him is in the Hall of Fame.

After receiving just 10.2% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, Rolen faces an uphill battle in the coming years. The early publicly available returns indicate he should gain some ground this year, but his election is hardly imminent, or certain.

Rolen was a superior overall player to several players who are currently tracking better than him in the voting. Ultimately, I suspect that Scott Rolen will gradually gain support, and eventually earn induction in Cooperstown.

6. Roy Halladay

JAWS: 57.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Halladay was born and raised in the Denver, Colorado area. A 1995 graduate of Arvada West High School, Halladay was selected 17th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays that June. Halladay performed well in the low minors, and was pushed aggressively through the Blue Jays system. He reached Triple-A during his age-20 season, and made his big league debut the following year.

Like the Blue Jays organization, the scouting community agreed that Halladay was a premium prospect. Baseball America ranked him 38th, or better, each season from 1997-1999. In retrospect, it’s easy to see that Halladay may not have been as well prepared for the big leagues as it appeared at first glance. His strikeout/walk numbers in the high minors were unremarkable– a trend that followed him to the big leagues.

After he was battered for 19 games in 2000, Halladay carried a 5.77 ERA through 231 innings. He was sent all the way back to High Class-A in 2001. It was during his return to the minors that Halladay famously overhauled his mechanics and mental approach. By the time he returned to the big leagues in July, he was a completely different pitcher. He finished the season with 105.1 big league innings at 145 ERA+.

In 2002, Halladay proved that his transformation was permanent. He made the All Star team, and led the league with 239.1 innings at 157 ERA+.

In 2003, he upped the ante with 266 innings, also leading the league with 22 wins, nine complete games, and a 6.38 K/BB ratio. He was again an All Star, and won 26 of 28 first place votes for the Cy Young.

After injuries in 2004-2005 limited him to just 274.2 total innings, Halladay resumed his dominance of the American League in 2006. He finished his Blue Jays career with four straight top-five Cy Young finishes, and 930.1 innings at 142 ERA+.

Halladay’s tenure in Toronto came to a crossroads after the 2009 season. Despite his individual brilliance, Halladay had been unable to elevate the Blue Jays to the playoffs at any point in his career. In December, Toronto traded him to the defending champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Halladay was brilliant in his initiation to the National League in 2010. He led the league with 21 wins, 250.2 innings, and 1.1 BB/9. The Phillies won their fourth straight N.L. East title. Halladay threw a no-hitter in the NLDS opener against the Reds, but the Phillies fell to the Giants in the NLCS. After the season, Halladay won the Cy Young, making him just the fifth player to have won the award in both leagues at the time.

He was similarly excellent in 2011, pacing the N.L. in ERA+ (163) and FIP (2.20). The Phillies won the division again before losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Hallday finished second in the Cy Young race.

Injuries took their toll on Halladay after 2011. In his last two seasons, he struggled to remain on the mound, and was mostly ineffective when he did. He retired after his age-36 season.

Hall of Fame?

In his 16-year career, Roy Halladay established himself as one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. He finished with a record of 203-105 and 131 ERA+. He was even more superb in the 11 seasons in the middle of his career. From 2001-2011, he was 175-78 with a 148 ERA+.

Halladay was an eight-time All Star. He led the league in wins twice, and innings four times during his career. In addition to his two Cy Youngs, he finished fifth, or better, another five times in his career including two second-place finishes.

JAWS ranks Halladay as the 43rd best starting pitcher in history. The system is structured to reward peak level dominance, which is essential to Halladay’s case. What he lacks in longevity, and counting stats, he makes up for with his marvelous 11-year peak.

Roy Halladay died tragically in a plane crash on November 7, 2017 at the age of 40.

I have previously mentioned that I prefer to give considerable weight to peak level brilliance when evaluating Hall of Fame candidates. Roy Halladay is a poster boy for the reasons why. Anyone who watched him pitch during his peak knew they were witnessing a Hall of Fame career. Even if he doesn’t check all of the boxes for counting stats, there is little doubt he was one of the best pitchers of his era.

Roy Halladay appears poised to be elected to the Hall of Fame this winter, on the first ballot.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (16-20)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the first piece in the series. Players 21-25 by JAWS.

20. Miguel Tejada

JAWS: 41.9 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Miguel Tejada was born and raised in Bani, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Oakland Athletics in July, 1993. Tejada came stateside in 1995 and quickly established himself as a well-rounded shortstop prospect in his age-21 season. He was a Baseball America Top-100 prospect for three straight seasons, including back-to-back top-10 rankings in 1997 and 1998.

In seven seasons with Oakland, Tejada hit .270/.331/.460 for 107 OPS+. From 1998-2003, he averaged 3.7 bWAR. In 2002, he won the American League MVP on the strength of a .308/.354/.508, 128 OPS+ line with 34 homers and 131 RBI.

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series. With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. After the 2003 season, the A’s allowed Tejada to depart via free agency to the Baltimore Orioles.

Tejada’s stretch in Baltimore from 2004-2007 was the best of his career. He averaged .311/.362/.501, 124 OPS+, and 5.0 bWAR. He made the All Star team three times, and won two Silver Sluggers. The Orioles had a losing record each season. They dealt Tejada to Houston after the 2007 season.

Tejada made the All Star team both seasons in Houston, but his production began to slip. He averaged 101 OPS+ and 1.9 bWAR.

From 2010-2011, Tejada bounced around from Baltimore to San Diego, and San Francisco. After missing the 2012 season, Tejada returned for 53 games with Kansas City in 2013, his final stint in the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

Miguel Tejada was one of the top shortstops in baseball during an era of great shortstops. Tejada was a six-time All Star who won two Silver Sluggers, and the 2002 A.L. MVP.

JAWS ranks him as the top shortstop on the 2019 Ballot in his first year of eligibility. His well-rounded skill set, and incredible durability (he played 162 games every season from 2001-2006), helped him accumulate more career bWAR than Omar Vizquel in 797 fewer games.

Ultimately, Tejada’s statistical case leaves him shy of the Hall of Fame standard at the position. When combined with the cloud of PED evidence surrounding his career, Tejada stands little chance of induction. It is entirely possible that he falls off the ballot after this year.

19. Mariano Rivera

JAWS: 42.5 (32.3 Average HOF RP)

Mariano Rivera was signed as an amateur free agent out of Panama by the New York Yankees in 1990. Rivera excelled during his minor league career in the Yankees system while splitting time between starting and relieving. Rivera made his big league debut at the age of 25 in 1995. Although he started 10 games during his rookie year, Rivera’s destiny was in the bullpen.

Beginning in 1996, Rivera embarked on an incredibly dominant career as a reliever. For the next 18 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera was consistently among the best relievers in the game. His utter dominance in the late innings was a key element of the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The Yankees made the playoffs 13 straight seasons from 1995-2007 and 17 times in Rivera’s 19 seasons with the club. Rivera was a key piece of five World Series championships (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009).

His legacy in the postseason leaves no doubt about Rivera’s place in baseball history. In 141 career playoff innings across 96 games, Rivera was 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.70 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP. Simply put, if the Yankees handed Mariano Rivera a lead in October, the game was over.

Mariano Rivera finished his career with a record of 82-60, 652 saves, a 2.21 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 205 ERA+ over 1283.2 innings.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons with the New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera carved out his legacy as the greatest closer in baseball history.

Rivera was a 13-time All Star, five-time Rolaids Reliever of the Year, and five-time World Champion. He was the ALCS MVP against Boston in 2003, and the World Series MVP against Atlanta in 1999.

He is baseball’s all-time leader in saves (652) and ERA+ (205).

Rivera ranks second all-time in JAWS among relievers, trailing only Dennis Eckersley whose 12 seasons and 361 games as a starting pitcher hardly makes for an apples to apples comparison.

Rivera appears to be a slam dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer. The only real question seems to be whether or not he will make history one more time as the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

18. Fred McGriff

JAWS: 44.3 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Fred McGriff was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1981 graduate of Jefferson High School, McGriff was selected in the 9th round by the New York Yankees. After the 1982 season, the 19-year-old McGriff was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. McGriff had a cup of coffee with Toronto in 1986, and was in the majors for good in 1987.

From 1987-1990, McGriff averaged .278/.390/.531, 154 OPS+, and 4.8 bWAR. He led the league in homers (36) and OPS+ (165) en route to a Silver Slugger award in 1989.

In one of the most fascinating trades in baseball history, the Blue Jays shipped McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter in December, 1990. The deal worked out famously for the Blue Jays while McGriff and Fernandez both had All Star seasons in San Diego.

In parts of three seasons with the Padres, McGriff averaged .281/.388/.519 and 149 OPS+. He led the National League with 35 homers in 1992, earning All Star and Silver Slugger honors in the process.

With the Padres in the midst of a brutal 1993 season, McGriff was traded to the Atlanta Braves in July. He remained with Atlanta through 1997, helping to propel the Braves to four division championships, and the 1995 World Series championship. In parts of five seasons in Atlanta, McGriff hit .293/.369/.516 and 128 OPS+. He was a three-time All Star for the Braves.

Following the 1997 season, the Braves sold McGriff to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays who were heading into their inaugural season as an expansion franchise. Now in his mid-30s, McGriff remained an above-average, and sometimes excellent, hitter in his home town. He made his fifth, and final, All Star team in 2000.

At the 2001 trade deadline, Tampa dealt McGriff to the Chicago Cubs. He remained in Chicago through the 2002 season. McGriff spent 2003 with the Dodgers, and wrapped up his career back in Tampa for 27 games in 2004.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons, Fred McGriff hit .284/.377/.509, good for 134 OPS+. His 493 career homers fall just shy of the magical 500 threshold. A five-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger, McGriff was one of the most feared sluggers of his era.

Unfortunately for McGriff, much of his career was played during the peak of baseball’s steroid era. While McGriff has never been seriously linked to PED use, it is difficult to find proper context for his numbers. As a result of the high offensive bar at the position, he ranks 31st among first basemen by JAWS. More than a third of the players who rank above him are from the same generation.

2019 represents McGriff’s 10th, and final, season on the ballot. After earning just 23.2% of the vote in 2018, McGriff seems all but certain to fall short of the required 75% this year. It is fair to wonder whether he might fair better with the Today’s Game Committee in the future.

17. Roy Oswalt

JAWS: 45.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Oswalt was born and raised in Central Mississippi. A graduate of Weir High School, Oswalt played his college ball at Holmes Community College in Ridgeland, MS. The Houston Astros selected him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft out of Holmes.

Despite his small frame, Oswalt used electric stuff to post solid strikeout numbers across the Houston farm system. When he made a quantum leap with his control during the 2000 season, he jumped to #13 on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects. He made his big league debut in 2001.

Oswalt made an immediate impact in Houston working to a 170 ERA+ and fifth place Cy Young finish during his rookie season to help the Astros win the N.L. Central. He helped Houston back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2004 and 2005. In 2005, the Astros won the National League pennant as Oswalt combined with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to form the most dominant starting rotation in franchise history.

In 10 seasons with the Astros, Oswalt went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA, 133 ERA+, and 3.35 FIP. He finished in the top-five in the Cy Young voting five times, and made three All Star teams.

With Houston out of contention in 2010, they traded Oswalt to the Phillies. Oswalt helped pitch the Phillies to consecutive A.L. East titles in 2010-2011.

He signed with the Texas Rangers in May, 2012 and helped them into the Wild Card Game. He finished his career with nine games for the Rockies in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

For much of Roy Oswalt’s 13-year career, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished with a career record of 163-102, 3.36 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 3.37 FIP. He is the greatest pitcher in Astros franchise history.

In his first year on the ballot, it is not entirely clear what kind of support we can expect for Oswalt. I suspect that, ultimately, he was neither durable nor dominant enough to make up for his shortcomings in the other category. Two more years of his top level, or three to four more at his career average, would have made his case considerably more intriguing.

I think it’s possible that Oswalt can hang around on the ballot beyond this year. That’s hardly a certainty given the loaded field he is competing with for the voters’ attention.

16. Jeff Kent

JAWS: 45.6 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Jeff Kent was born and raised in Southern California. After graduating from Edison High School in Huntington Beach, he headed north to play his college ball at the University of California, Berkeley. The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Kent in the 20th round in 1989.

Although his defense was regarded with some skepticism by scouts, Kent proved himself to be a polished offensive player in a quick ascent through the Toronto system. He made his big league debut in 1992. After proving himself capable of producing at the big league level, Kent was used as the headliner in an August trade with the Mets that brought David Cone to Toronto. Cone helped pitch Toronto to a World Series title that same season.

In parts of five seasons with the Mets from 1992-1996, Kent averaged 107 OPS+ while playing passable defense at second and third. At the 1996 trade deadline, the Mets used Kent as the key piece in a deal to land All Star second baseman Carlos Baerga from the Indians.

Although the Indians won the A.L. Central in 1996, Kent made minimal impact down the stretch, or in the playoffs. In November, he was traded from Cleveland to San Francisco as part of a package for All Star third baseman Matt Williams.

Entering his age-29 season in 1997, Kent was at a crossroads. He had already been traded three times, each time as the headline piece that landed his former club an All Star in return.

In San Francisco, Kent finally found himself. Paired with Barry Bonds, he began his Giants career with consecutive top-10 MVP finishes in 1997-1998. In 1999 he began a string of three straight All Star selections. In 2000, Kent won the National League MVP with a line of .334/.424/.596, 162 OPS+, and 7.2 bWAR.

With Bonds and Kent, the Giants were in contention every season. They won the N.L. West in 1997 and 2000. They parlayed a 2002 Wild Card berth into the National League pennant. In six seasons with the Giants, Kent averaged 136 OPS+ and 5.2 bWAR. He was a three-time All Star, and won three Silver Sluggers.

After the 2002 season, Kent signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros. He remained a solid hitter, producing 121 OPS+ in two seasons. He helped Houston reach the 2004 NLCS. Kent was an All Star in 2004.

Once again a free agent after 2004, Kent signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. From 2005-2008, he averaged 119 OPS+ and 1.7 bWAR as age sapped his defensive value. He was an All Star for the final time in 2005. He helped the Dodgers to a Wild Card berth in 2006, and the N.L. West title in 2008.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Jeff Kent established a legacy as one of the best offensive second basemen in history. Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and the 2000 N.L. MVP.

Kent is now in his sixth year on the ballot. He appears to be hanging by a thread after receiving just 14.5% of the vote last year.

Although he falls short of the JAWS average for second basemen, he ranks higher than eight of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position. Offensively, he is even better. His 123 OPS+ is better than 13 of the 20. He is the all-time leader in home runs by a second baseman.

Despite his offensive prowess, Kent’s defensive track record costs him both in terms of career value produced, and in the minds of the voters. His offensive chops are such that it’s not impossible to imagine him experiencing a late surge, but it seems unlikely.