Tag: Indians

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (9-10)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:  

Players 11-15 by JAWS.

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

10.  Andruw Jones

JAWS:  54.7 (57.7 Average HOF CF)

Andruw Jones was born and raised in Willemstad, Curacao.  He signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in July, 1993.  Once he reached the U.S., Jones quickly stood out among his peers.  Baseball America ranked him as their top prospect prior to the 1996 season.

Just 19 in 1996, Jones advanced through three levels of the minor leagues, slugging 34 homers and stealing 30 bases in just 116 games.  He made his big league debut in August, and quickly earned regular playing time.  Jones became an international sensation when he hit .400/.500/.750 with two homers as a teenager in the Braves 1996 World Series loss to the Yankees.

Jones quickly established himself as one of the best defensive center fielders in the game.  He won 10 straight Gold Gloves as a member of the Braves, helping to anchor the defense behind one of the greatest starting rotations in history.  

His offense steadily improved as well.  In 12 seasons with the Braves, Jones hit .263/.342/.497, 113 OPS+.  In 2005 he finished second in the MVP voting when he led the league with 51 homers and 128 RBI in addition to his excellent defense.

The Braves won the N.L. East every season from 1996-2005.  They won the pennant in 1996 and 1999.  Jones was a critical piece of their sustained success.

After appearing in the postseason every year since 1991, the Braves finished third in 2006-2007.  In 2007, Jones produced just 87 OPS+ in his age 30 season and the Braves elected to let him walk away as a free agent.

Jones signed with the Dodgers for 2008, but struggled to remain healthy and effective.  He was released that winter and signed with the Rangers.  Jones spent 2009-2012 in the American League.  He played single seasons in Texas, Chicago, and the final two years of his career with the Yankees where he contributed to back-to-back A.L. East titles.  

Jones starred for two seasons with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japanese Pacific League where he hit 50 homers in 2013-2014, but never returned to the big leagues.  

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Andruw Jones hit .254/.337/.486, 111 OPS+.  A solid hitter, Jones produced nearly as much value in the field and on the bases.  He was a five-time All Star who won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger.  He received MVP votes five times.

Jones ranks as the 11th best center fielder by JAWS.  Although he is just shy of the average mark for the position, that number is boosted by the exceptional careers of several all-time greats.  Jones ranks better than 12 of the 19 Hall of Fame center fielders.  

There is a strange dynamic at play regarding the candidacy of Jones.  For the first 11 years of his career, there was little doubt that Jones was on a Hall of Fame trajectory.  An excellent defensive player who blossomed into an elite hitter, Jones had the benefit of breaking into the big leagues younger than most, and figured to rack up massive counting stats into his 30s.  

Then the last part failed to materialize.  Over the last six years of his career, Jones was an entirely different player.  His athleticism declined with startling rapidity sapping his defensive value to the point where he abandoned center field altogether, and spent significant time at DH during his A.L. years.  He produced just 92 OPS+ and 4.7 bWAR from age 30-35 before washing out of the big leagues for good.

Jones was named on just 7.3% of the ballots during his first year of eligibility.  He is teetering on the brink of falling off the ballot entirely this year.  The voters appear to be aggressively penalizing him for his rapid decline, rather than properly rewarding his magnificent peak. 

For me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer.  If forced to choose, I prefer shorter stretches of brilliance over long-term statistical compilers.  Both have their place in Cooperstown, and Andruw Jones certainly fits into the former category.

9.  Manny Ramirez

JAWS:  54.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Manny Ramirez was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  He moved to the U.S. as a teenager, and graduated from George Washington High School in Manhattan.  The Cleveland Indians drafted him 13th overall in June, 1991.  A supremely talented hitter, Ramirez immediately put himself on the prospect map.  After shredding the high minors in 1993, he earned a big league trial.  Baseball America ranked him as their #7 prospect entering 1994.

The Cleveland Indians were on the verge of becoming one of the most successful teams of the late-90s when Ramirez burst onto the scene.  They were one game out of first when the strike began in 1994.  Cleveland would go on to win five straight A.L. Central titles as Ramirez established himself as one of the best hitters in the game.

During his eight seasons in Cleveland, Ramirez hit .313/.407/.592, 152 OPS+.  He led the league with 165 RBI in 1999 and paced the junior circuit in slugging and OPS in 1999-2000.

Manny hit free agency after the 2000 season.  He was entering his age-29 season coming off three straight top-six MVP finishes.  In a move that would alter the course of two franchises, Ramirez signed with the Boston Red Sox.

In Boston, Manny was exactly as advertised.  He remained of the most feared right-handed hitters in the game for eight seasons with the Red Sox.  His career line in Boston was a virtual carbon copy of that in Cleveland at .312/.411/.588, 155 OPS+.  He won the batting title in 2002 (.349), led the league in slugging in 2004 (.613), and had the highest OBP in the league three times as a member of the Red Sox.

Manny would end up as a central piece of Boston’s turnaround after the turn of the century.  Boston won the Wild Card three straight years beginning in 2003.  Their improbable ALCS comeback against the Yankees in 2004 paved the way for the franchise’s first World Series championship since 1918.  Manny was the World Series MVP in the sweep of the Cardinals.  When they won again in 2007, Manny was still hitting in the middle of the Boston order.

By 2008, Ramirez’s declining defensive value, and generally erratic behavior, had worn thin in Boston.  It became clear that the Red Sox would not sign him to a contract extension after the season.  Although he was still a productive hitter, and they were in the middle of a playoff race, the Red Sox traded Ramirez to the Dodgers at the deadline.

Ramirez dominated the stretch run in Los Angeles, helping the Dodgers to the N.L. West title.  He signed a contract extension in L.A. and helped the Dodgers repeat as division champs the next year, although he was suspended 50 games for PED use.    

When the Dodgers faded in 2010, they let Manny pass to the White Sox via waivers late in August.  He played his final big league game for Tampa in April, 2011.  Although he bounced around the Triple-A Pacific Coast League for three different teams from 2012-2014, he would never return to the Majors. 

Hall of Fame?

In his incredible 19-year career, Manny Ramirez hit .312/.411/.585, 154 OPS+.  His 555 career homers rank 15th all-time.  Manny was a 12-time All Star who won nine Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes 11 times including eight straight top-nine finishes.  

Manny ranks as the 10th best left fielder in history by JAWS.  He is just above the average, and ranks better than 13 of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position.  

Like half-a-dozen players on the current ballot, Ramirez’s candidacy has been torpedoed by steroid use.  Ramirez tested positive three different times during his career leaving a permanent black eye on his resume. 

Although his credentials place him at a level above Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa, the voters have clearly shown that they view Manny closer to that group than to Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Now in his third year of eligibility, Manny clearly needs a shift in the voters’ attitudes toward the steroid era to have any chance of enshrinement in Cooperstown.

Omar Vizquel: Hall of Famer?

JAWS:  36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Omar Vizquel was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Seattle Mariners in 1984.  A slightly-built switch-hitting shortstop, Vizquel’s glove work carried him through the minor leagues.  He made his big league debut with Seattle in 1989.

As the primary shortstop in Seattle from 1989-1993, Vizquel was a consistently above-average defender who often struggled mightily at the plate.  He won his first Gold Glove in his final season with the Mariners.  After the 1993 season, Vizquel was traded to the Cleveland Indians.

In Cleveland, Vizquel’s skill set proved particularly valuable.  The Indians teams of that era were marked by incredibly deep offensive lineups and suspect pitching.  They could afford to carry Vizquel’s bat in exchange for his steadying presence at shortstop.

From 1995-2001, the Indians made the playoffs six times in seven seasons with Vizquel at shortstop.  They won the American League in 1995 and 1997, but were defeated by the Braves and Marlins respectively in the World Series.

By 1996, Vizquel’s offense had developed to the point where he would often flirt with league-average production.  Never much of a power hitter, Vizquel managed to leverage good contact skills, control of the strike zone, and improved base running into some decent offensive years along the way.

Vizquel spent 2005-2008 with the San Francisco Giants.  By the end of his Giants tenure, he was 40 years old and clearly declining.  His defense was still solid– if not what it had been at his peak– but his offense had regressed to the point where he was no longer playable every day.  He spent 2009-2012 with the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays before retiring after his age-45 season.

Hall of Fame?

Vizquel is one of the most interesting cases among the current candidates.  He received 37% of the vote in his first year on the ballot last year, so there is clearly some staying power here. 

In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter.  He was an above-average offensive player just twice.  His entire Hall of Fame case rests on the defensive side of the ledger.

Searching For Context

Only eight players have won more career Gold Gloves than Vizquel’s 11.  Of those eight, only Jim Kaat (16x at pitcher) and Keith Hernandez (11x at first base) are not in the Hall of Fame. 

By bWAR, Vizquel is the ninth-best defender of all-time.  The great Orioles shortstop Mark Belanger is the only player rated higher than Vizquel who is not in the Hall of Fame.

Vizquel Among Shortstops

Proponents of Vizquel’s candidacy say that his defensive prowess is more than enough for him to be considered a Hall of Famer.  Their argument typically centers around the number of Gold Gloves, indelible memories of highlight plays, and the reality that other elite defensive shortstops such as Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio, and Rabbit Maranville were elected with similarly unimpressive offensive numbers.

Omar Vizquel is not Ozzie Smith.  This is the most common comparison drawn by Vizquel’s supporters, and it simply doesn’t work.  Smith is the preeminent defensive player in baseball history and is ultimately without peer.  Smith was also the better hitter at a career 87 OPS+, and a superior base runner.  Vizquel doesn’t have to be Ozzie Smith to be worthy of the Hall of Fame, but that false equivalency is an important point to correct.

Two comparisons that actually work out pretty well for Vizquel are with Aparicio and Maranville.  All three produced identical 82 OPS+ marks for their respective careers.  Aparicio actually claims a rather significant offensive edge as a result of being a consistently above-average base runner.  Vizquel and Maranville rank as similarly average base runners.  The three are also very similar in most modern interpretations of their defensive play.

The closest active comparison to Vizquel is probably Los Angeles Angels shortstop, Andrelton Simmons.  Simmons will enter his age-29 season as the premier defensive shortstop in baseball, and a career 92 OPS+ hitter.  Simmons will almost certainly accrue more defensive value than Vizquel by the time his career has concluded, and could potentially accomplish that feat as soon as this coming season.  Unless you believe that Simmons is a slam dunk Hall of Famer in his own right, it probably makes sense to pump the breaks on Vizquel.

Conclusion

I’m generally not a “Small Hall” kind of guy.  I prefer to err on the side of generosity.  I think the Hall of Fame as an institution benefits from honoring a wide variety of players.  

In the end, I can’t quite get there on Vizquel.  He would be among the 2-3 least impressive shortstops in the Hall of Fame if he were selected.  If you merely aspire to find candidates that clear the lowest bar at their position, you can find dozens of players who could be included.  I don’t necessarily believe that any new Hall of Famer has to raise the average bar for his position either, but Vizquel is too far from that mark for me.

I always admired Vizquel’s skills.  There are a handful of his defensive plays that I can recall vividly from memory, and I can’t say that for more than maybe a couple of dozen players in history.  At the same time, I never felt like Omar Vizquel was a truly elite player at any point during his career.  

I don’t want to come off as a Vizquel basher, or dismissive of his accomplishments.  Omar Vizquel was a great player.  I don’t believe he was a Hall of Famer. 

That doesn’t mean we should forget about him either.

Omar Vizquel Career Highlights from Major League Baseball

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (21-25)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

We begin with the players who rank 21-25 by JAWS.

25.  Freddy Garcia

JAWS:  30.9 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Freddy Garcia was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Houston Astros in 1993.  In 1998, the Astros packaged him with Carlos Guillen and John Halama to acquire future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson from the Seattle Mariners.  Johnson made 11 dominant starts for Houston, helping them to the NL Central championship before signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks after the season.  Garcia and Guillen would each end up among the greatest players in Mariners history.

In six seasons with Seattle, Freddy Garcia went 76-50 with a 114 ERA+, accumulating 18.7 bWAR.  He was a two-time All Star with the Mariners and led the American League in ERA (3.05) and innings (238.2) in 2001.  

With Garcia approaching free agency, the Mariners dealt him to the Chicago White Sox in June, 2004.  From 2004-2006, Garcia made 82 starts for the White Sox, remaining consistently above-average in the process.  He was a key piece of the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox.

Chicago traded Garcia to the Phillies after the 2006 season.  From 2007-2013, Garcia bounced around to six teams including a return engagement with the White Sox in 2009-2010.  In 2011, he made 25 starts at 119 ERA+ to help the Yankees win the A.L. East.  Overall, he struggled to remain both healthy and effective for much of his final seven seasons.

Hall of Fame?

Freddy Garcia is one of the best pitchers in the comparatively short history of the Seattle Mariners.  He will be listed on the all-time Mariners starting rotation here on Franchise Phenoms.  He also holds a special place in the hearts of White Sox fans for his role in ending their franchise’s World Series drought.

As his JAWS ratings would suggest, Freddy Garcia clearly falls below the standard for Hall of Fame starting pitchers.  Garcia is probably one-and-done on the ballot.  At the same time, he will be fondly remembered by the fan bases of at least two franchises, and that is what we’re all about at Franchise Phenoms.

24.  Derek Lowe

JAWS:  31.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Derek Lowe was selected by the Seattle Mariners in the 8th round of the 1991 draft out of Ford High School in Dearborn, MI.  Lowe made his big league debut with the Mariners in 1997.  That July, he was traded with Jason Varitek to the Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb.  Slocumb made minimal impact on the Mariners while Lowe and Varitek would become Franchise Phenoms for Boston.

In eight seasons with the Red Sox, Lowe would go on to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history.  Lowe began his career as a versatile, mult-inning arm before becoming closer, and eventually shifting to the starting rotation for the second half of his Red Sox career.  He was a two-time All Star, once as a reliever, and once as a starter.  He led the league in saves in 2000, and finished third in the Cy Young voting as a starter in 2002.  In 1037 innings, he posted 127 ERA+ and 19.4 bWAR.

Lowe was the winning pitcher in Game Four of the 2004 World Series, as the Red Sox finished off a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals and dispelled the Curse of the Bambino. 

Following the 2004 season, Lowe signed a four-year contract to join the Los Angeles Dodgers.  With the Dodgers, Lowe was largely the same pitcher he had been in Boston.  He was a key piece of L.A.’s staring rotation, throwing strikes and racking up ground balls.  He finished his Dodgers tenure with 120 ERA+ and 13.3 bWAR.  Lowe helped the Dodgers to the postseason in 2006 and 2008.  

In 2009, heading into his age-36 season, Lowe signed a free agent deal to join the Atlanta Braves.  Although he remained durable, he was less effective during his three years in Atlanta.  In 2012-2013, Lowe concluded his career by bouncing from Cleveland to the Yankees, and finally to Texas.

Hall of Fame?

Derek Lowe holds an important place in Red Sox history.  His role on the 2004 World Series winners will ensure him a place in Red Sox lore.

Lowe had an excellent 11-year stretch in Boston and L.A. where he was above-average in every season but one.  For all of his reliability and sustained success, he was seldom dominant.  Aside from 1999-2000 out of the bullpen, and his third-place Cy Young finish as a starter in 2002, Lowe was most often not recognized among the very best pitchers of his generation.

Like Garcia, Lowe falls well short of the Hall of Fame standards for staring pitchers and figures to have a short stay on the ballot.  His immortal status in Boston will remain his true legacy.

23.  Kevin Youkilis

JAWS:  31.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Kevin Youkilis was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Cincinnati.  As a minor leaguer, Youkilis was made famous beyond his prospect status when he was dubbed “The Greek god of Walks” in Moneyball.  

Youkilis made his big league debut for the Red Sox in May, 2004.  He played a supporting role in the team’s improbable run to its first World Series championship since 1918. 

Youkilis was a slightly above-average hitter from 2004-2007.  His plate discipline translated nicely, but he failed to show the home run power desired for a corner player.  

In the 2007 playoffs, Youkilis was a monster.  He hit .500/.576/.929 in Boston’s seven game series win over the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS.  The Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the World Series to earn their second championship in four seasons.

Then the power started to show.  From 2008-2011, Youk was one of the best offensive players in baseball.  He averaged 142 OPS+ and 5.5 bWAR per season during that stretch.  He was an All Star in three of those four seasons, and twice got MVP votes finishing third in 2008, and sixth in 2009.  With Youk as a driving force, Boston made the playoffs again in both 2008 and 2009.

By 2012, the 33-year-old Youkilis was slowing down.  The Red Sox traded him to the White Sox in June.  He was better in Chicago, but nothing like the player he had been the previous four years.  He played 28 games with the Yankees in 2013, but injuries severely limited him.  Youk played 21 games in Japan in 2014, but never returned to the big leagues.  

Hall of Fame?

Kevin Youkilis enjoyed a surprisingly short 10-year career in the Major Leagues.  His distinctive nickname, facial hair, and batting stance all contributed to a cult following in Red Sox Nation.  96% of his career bWAR was accumulated in parts of nine seasons with the Red Sox.  He was a three-time All Star, and won a Gold Glove at first base in 2007.

I will confess to being mildly startled by the realization that Youk played more career games at first base than at third.  His career 123 OPS+ would look considerably better at the hot corner.  Either way, a 10-year career is seldom enough to earn a place in Cooperstown.  

Like Garcia and Lowe, Kevin Youkilis was a great player who will be fondly remembered for his role on championship teams, but not a Hall of Famer.

22.  Omar Vizquel

JAWS:  36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Omar Vizquel is the first truly interesting case in this exercise.  Now in his second year on the ballot, Vizquel showed nicely last winter, earning 37% of the vote.  As an 11-time Gold Glover and three-time All Star, Vizquel clearly has some staying power.

Vizquel is one of the best defensive players in baseball history.  What makes his candidacy interesting is that it is almost entirely dependent on defense. 

In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter.  He was an above-average offensive player just twice.  This type of candidate is rare, and Vizquel figures to be one of the more polarizing figures on the ballot in coming years.

As a result, I am devoting an entire separate piece to asking the question:  Is Omar Vizquel a Hall of Famer?

21.  Placido Polanco

JAWS:  36.9 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Placido Polanco was born and raised in the Dominican Republic.  After finishing high school in Santo Domingo, Polanco came to the United States.  He attended Miami-Dade Junior College in Florida where he was drafted twice.  First, in the 49th round by the White Sox in 1993, and then again in the 19th round by the Cardinals the following year.

At the tender age of 22, Polanco made his big league debut with the Cardinals during Mark McGwire’s home run chase in 1998.  Never much of an offensive player in the minors, it took Polanco time to acclimate to the big leagues as well.  He was a part-time player until 2001, and failed to post a single above-average offensive line in his five seasons with the Cardinals.

At the 2002 trade deadline, Polanco joined left-hander Bud Smith as the headliners in a package that landed Phillies Franchise Phenom Scott Rolen in St. Louis.  Polanco elevated his offensive game in Philadelphia by gradually unlocking a little more power and patience.  He became a consistently above-average hitter with the Phillies from 2002-2005.

In June, 2005 the Phillies traded Polanco to the Detroit Tigers for closer Ugueth Urbina.  Polanco had the best seasons of his career in Detroit from 2005-2009.  In 2007 he earned All Star, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger honors for the first time in his career at 31 years old.  He won his second Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009.

Polanco returned to Philadelphia from 2010-2012.  In 2011, he made his second All Star team and won his third Gold Glove, this time at third base.  He finished his career with the Marlins in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Placido Polanco played 16 seasons in the big leagues.  He was most often an average player, but occasionally a star. 

Never the best player on his own team, much less the league, Polanco figures to join Garcia, Lowe, Youkilis, and probably 10 others as one-and-done’s on this year’s ballot.