Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
Billy Wagner was drafted 12th overall by the Houston Astros out of Ferrum College in Virginia in 1993. Although he was largely deployed as a starter on his climb through the Astros system, Wagner’s future was in the bullpen. After a single hitter cameo in the big leagues in 1995, Wagner was in the big leagues for good by June of 1996.
Listed at 5-10, 180 pounds, the undersized lefty pumped upper 90s fastballs past hitters while seldom needing a second pitch. For 16 seasons, Billy Wagner was one of the top relief pitchers in the game.
In nine seasons with the Astros, Wagner was utterly dominant. In 464 games, he finished with a 171 ERA+. He is Houston’s all-time leader in saves (225), WHIP (1.04), K/9 (12.4), and H/9 (5.9). Wagner was a three-time All Star in Houston. In 1999 he was Rolaids Relief Man, and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He received MVP votes in 1999 and 2003.
Although the Astros made the playoffs four times with Wagner as their closer, the club was never able to advance past the NLDS.
Heading Back East
Following the 2003 season, with Wagner becoming more expensive, the Astros traded him to the Phillies. Wagner was better still in Philadelphia. In 2004-2005, Wagner posted a 240 ERA+. He was an All Star in 2005.
Wagner became a free agent after the 2005 season. He signed a four-year contract with the Mets. Wagner remained dominant during his early years in New York. He finished with a 183 ERA+ mark over 183 games for the Mets. He was twice an All Star, and finished sixth in the 2006 Cy Young voting.
The Mets made the post season once during Wagner’s tenure. In 2006, Wagner recorded two saves in the Mets sweep of the Dodgers in the NLDS. The Mets lost a heartbreaking seven-game NLCS to the eventual world champion Cardinals.
Wagner’s age-37 season was marred by injuries. He made just two appearances for the Mets in 2009 before he was dealt to the Red Sox in August.
He closed out his career with a dominant 2010 campaign with the Braves. Wagner made the All Star team for the seventh time in his career, and helped the Braves to a Wild Card berth.
Hall of Fame?
Billy Wagner is, without question, one of the best relievers in history. From 1996-2008, Wagner’s consistent dominance of the late innings in the National League was a given.
Wagner is now in his fifth season on the ballot. He is the top remaining eligible relief pitcher by JAWS. Unfortunately, he faces a steep uphill climb after earning just 16.7% of the vote in 2019.
The pure reliever is still a relatively new problem for voters to grapple with. The candidacies of Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman both resulted in quick enshrinement. It is clear that Wagner is not viewed on par with those late-inning legends. Still, Wagner is sixth all-time in saves and seventh among relievers in Win Probability Added.
The likelihood is that Wagner continues to gain votes in the coming years, but ultimately falls short of election by the BBWAA. Lee Smith‘s selection by the Veteran’s Committee in 2019 may be his best-case scenario.
Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman.
Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada
Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia
5. Larry Walker
JAWS: 58.7 (56.8 Average HOF RF)
Larry Walker signed with the Montreal Expos as an amateur free agent out of British Columbia in November, 1984.
Walker made his big league debut with the Expos. Over six seasons in Montreal, he produced a .281/.353/.483 line, 128 OPS+, and 21.1 bWAR.
Heading into 1995, Walker signed a free agent contract with the Colorado Rockies. In 10 seasons with Colorado, he produced a .334/.426/.618 line, 147 OPS+, and 48.3 bWAR. He was one of the best all around players in the game during his time with the Rockies.
Walker spent the final two seasons of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. He remained an excellent hitter when healthy, posting a 134 OPS+ in 2004-2005. Walker helped the Cardinals reach the playoffs in both years.
I have already posted a detailed recap of Larry Walker’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.
Hall of Fame?
In his 17-year career, Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.565, 141 OPS+. A true five-tool talent, Walker contributed in every facet of the game. He was a five-time All Star who won seven Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, and three batting titles. He received MVP votes eight times, winning the award in 1997.
Walker ranks as the 10th best right fielder in history by JAWS. He is above the average of Hall of Fame right fielders, giving serious weight to his candidacy. Every right fielder with a higher JAWS score than Walker is already enshrined in Cooperstown.
2019 is Walker’s ninth year on the ballot. His candidacy seems to have suffered from a combination of the Coors Field effect, and the number of his seasons that were cut short by injuries.
He did experience a surge last year, jumping from 21.9% of the vote in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018. With two years remaining, he has significant ground to cover. It appears that he will make substantial gains this year, but it’s unclear if he will be able to close the gap to the elusive 75% mark.
For those who saw him play, Larry Walker’s tremendous physical talent placed him among the game’s all-time great five-tool players. Larry Walker was a Hall of Fame player. Hopefully he receives the formal honors that go with it.
4. Mike Mussina
JAWS: 63.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Mike Mussina was born and raised in Central Pennsylvania. A 1987 graduate of Montoursville High School, Mussina was drafted in the 11th round by the Orioles that June. Rather than sign a professional contract, he enrolled at Stanford. In 1990, after his Junior season, Mussina was once again drafted by Baltimore, this time with the 20th overall pick.
As an advanced college arm, Mussina was sent directly to Double-A after signing, and reached Triple-A by the end of his draft year. Baseball America ranked him their #19 prospect heading into 1991. Mussina returned to Triple-A Rochester for some additional seasoning. After 19 minor league starts, he made his big league debut in August, 1991.
Mussina was immediately one of the best pitchers in the American League. After a strong showing in his rookie season, “Moose” made the All Star team for the first time in 1992. He would receive that honor four more times as a member of the Orioles.
In 1996-1997, Mussina led Baltimore’s pitching staff to back-to-back playoff appearances, first as a Wild Card, then to their first A.L. East title in 14 seasons. The Orioles were defeated in the ALDS both years.
Although the Orioles struggled during Mussina’s final three seasons in Baltimore, Moose remained one of the best pitchers in the American League.
In 10 seasons with the Orioles, Mussina went 147-81 with a 3.53 ERA, and 130 ERA+. After 2000, heading into his age-32 season, Mussina hit the free agent market as one of the most sought-after hurlers in the game. Much to the chagrin of Orioles fans, Mussina inked a massive six year, $87 million contract with their division rivals, the New York Yankees.
Mussina spent the last eight years of his career in the Bronx. In 2001, he made good on the first year of his new contract with a 17-11 record, and a league-leading 2.92 FIP. His 7.1 bWAR was tops on a team full of superstars that would go on to win the American League pennant.
The Yankees made the playoffs in each of Mussina’s first seven seasons with the club. When they made it back to the World Series in 2003, Mussina was again the best player on the roster at 6.6 bWAR.
In his late-30s, Mussina was more often an average pitcher than a star. From 2004-2008, he averaged 30 starts, 14 wins, 179 innings, and 107 ERA+. He retired after the 2008 season, despite coming off his first 20-win season, and finishing with his best ERA+ (131) since his first year in New York.
Hall of Fame?
Over the course of his 18-year career, Mike Mussina was one of the most consistently excellent, and durable starters in the game. He finished with a career record of 270-153, 3.68 ERA, and 123 ERA+.
Moose was a five-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, FIP, and walk rate once each during his career. Although he never won a Cy Young, he finished six, or better, nine times including a second place finish in 1999. He was also an excellent fielder, winning seven Gold Gloves.
JAWS ranks Mussina as the 29th best starting pitcher in history, above the average for Hall of Fame starters.
Although he never quite had the same stretch of dominance as the most legendary starters in history, Mike Mussina is a Hall of Famer. For 18 seasons he was one of the most reliably excellent pitchers in the game, all while working in the American League East during the peak of the steroid era.
Now in his sixth year on the ballot, Mussina appears nearly certain of eventual induction. After earning 63.5% of the vote in 2018, he is gaining additional support, and could be elected as soon as this year.
3. Curt Schilling
JAWS: 64.1 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Curt Schilling was born in Anchorage, Alaska. Schilling’s father, a sergeant in the U.S. Army, relocated his family several time during Curt’s youth. As something of a late-bloomer, Schilling went undrafted out of Shadown Mountain High School in Phoenix. He enrolled at Yavapai College, north of Phoenix, and was picked by the Boston Red Sox in the January phase of the 1986 draft. He signed in May and began his pro career that summer.
In July, 1988 the Red Sox packaged Schilling with another future star, outfielder Brady Anderson, in a deal to land veteran pitcher Mike Boddicker from the Baltimore Orioles. Boddicker was instrumental in helping the Red Sox secure the A.L. East title, but Baltimore would win the trade in the long term.
Schilling made his big league debut with Baltimore in 1988, but failed to stick with the club until a successful stint in the bullpen during the second half of 1990. That off season, Schilling was packaged with fellow future All Stars Steve Finley, and Pete Harnisch, in a deal to acquire slugger Glenn Davis from the Houston Astros.
After one mostly unremarkable season working out of the Houston bullpen, the Astros traded Schilling to the Phillies for right-hander Jason Grimsley. Although he would have a solid 15-year career of his own, Grimsley spent the entire 1992 season in the minors before Houston released him the following spring. Curt Schilling would go on to star for the Phillies.
In 1992, Schilling spent his age-25 season split between the bullpen and the starting rotation. By the time the dust had settled, he had worked 226.1 innings at 150 ERA+ with a league-leading 0.99 WHIP. Although he struggled to replicate that dominance over the next three seasons, Schilling did help pitch the Phillies to the 1993 World Series.
For all of his tremendous talent, Schilling struggled to realize his potential. Heading into his age-29 season in 1996, Schilling had 805 big league innings under his belt at 109 ERA+. Unexpectedly, 1996 would be the season that charted a new course for the remaining 12 seasons of his career.
From 1996-1999, Schilling averaged 30 starts, 222 innings, 238 strikeouts, and 137 ERA+. He made his first All Star team during his age-30 season.
Despite having one of the best starters in the league heading up their staff, the Phillies floundered. They rattled off seven straight losing seasons after their N.L. championship in 1993. In 2000, they traded their 33-year-old ace to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
In Arizona, Schilling was paired with Randy Johnson to establish one of the most dominant 1-2 punches the game has ever seen.
In 2001, Johnson won the Cy Young, and Schilling finished second. The Diamondbacks won the N.L. West, and cruised into the playoffs ready to roll out their pair of aces. Schilling made six starts during the post season, including three in the World Series. He finished 4-0, allowing just six runs over 48.1 innings to help the Diamondbacks win the World Series in just their fourth season in existence. Schilling was the World Series MVP.
In 2002, Johnson and Schilling headed up the Cy Young balloting for the second straight season. The D’Backs won the division again, but were swept in the first round by the Cardinals.
Schilling was strong again in 2003, but after Arizona failed to make the playoffs, the club decided to go another direction. They agreed to deal Schilling to the Boston Red Sox. There, the 37-year-old ace was expected to form the same kind of dominant playoff duo that had brought a championship to the desert with another Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.
Schilling lived up to his end of the bargain, leading the A.L. with 21 wins, and a 5.80 K/BB ratio. The Red Sox made the playoffs as the Wild Card team. Schilling won three of his four playoff starts. The most famous of which was the legendary “Bloody Sock” Game Six of the ALCS as the Red Sox improbably won their third straight game to even the series with the Yankees. He also beat the Cardinals in Game Two of the World Series, putting a final stamp on his legacy as one of the most important players on the team that ended the Curse of the Bambino.
Schilling’s final season was 2007. At age 40, he made 24 regular season starts– enough to help Boston win the A.L. East title. He then went 3-0 in four playoff starts as the Red Sox won their second World Series in four years.
Hall of Fame?
Curt Schilling’s 20-year career was truly unique. Schilling compiled 79% of his career bWAR after the age of 30. His career arc defied logic making him an unlikely Hall of Fame candidate. He finished with a record of 216-146, 3.46 ERA, and 127 ERA+.
Schilling was a six-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, strikeouts, and WHIP twice each during his career. He finished fourth, or better, in the Cy Young voting four times, including three second-place finishes in a four year stretch from 2001-2004.
JAWS ranks Schilling as the 27th best starter in history, two spots ahead of Mussina. Despite his unique career path, Schilling is 15th all-time in strikeouts (3116). His 4.383 K/BB ratio is fifth best in history.
Now in his 7th year on the ballot, Schilling still has some ground to cover. After finishing with just 51.2% of the vote a year ago, his induction is not a foregone conclusion. His relative lack of support appears to be a combination of his low win total, a crowded ballot, and a series of controversial statements he has made since his retirement.
For whatever holes you might poke in Schilling’s resume, he is clearly a Hall of Famer based on merit alone. His late ascent to dominance should be easily counterbalanced by the extent of that dominance once he achieved it. Beyond that, his postseason resume, which includes World Series appearances with three different franchises, and a central role in winning three championships complete with signature moments, should remove any lingering doubt.
Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, and Lance Berkman
Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada
Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia
8. Edgar Martinez
JAWS: 56.0 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)
Edgar Martinez was born in New York. As a child, he moved to Puerto Rico to live with his grandparents. Martinez remained in Puerto Rico through his teenage years and graduated from Dorado High School. In December 1982, at the age of 20, the Seattle Mariners signed him out of a tryout camp in his hometown. Edgar methodically climbed through the Seattle system and made his big league debut in 1987.
Although he debuted in 1987, by the end of 1989, Martinez had just 280 big league plate appearances to his credit. Despite his clear mastery of the Triple-A level, Martinez was stuck. Although the Mariners received virtually no production at third base during those years, it took the team until 1990 (Martinez’s age-27 season) to give him regular at-bats at the big league level.
Once his path to playing time was cleared, Martinez immediately established himself as an excellent offensive player, and credible third baseman. From 1990-1991, he averged 135 OPS+ and 5.8 bWAR. Edgar broke out in 1992, winning his first batting title (.343) and leading the league in doubles (46) en route to his first All Star selection, and a Silver Slugger.
A freak leg injury in a 1993 pre-season exhibition game limited him to just 42 games that season. Martinez was healthier, and more productive, in 1994. Still, he averaged just 116 OPS+ during his shortened age 30-31 seasons.
Heading into 1995, it was fair to wonder if Edgar Martinez’s best days were already behind him. Instead, Martinez ended up being the best offensive player on a resurgent Seattle club that won the A.L. West. He led the league in hitting, OBP, and OPS+ with a .356/.479/.628, 185 OPS+ line. His 121 runs and 52 doubles were also tops in the A.L. Seattle beat the Yankees in the ALDS, but lost in six games to Cleveland in the ALCS.
Rather than suffer a steep decline in his 30s, Martinez proved to be better with age. From 1995-2003, he averaged .321/.438/.558, 159 OPS+, and 5.2 bWAR. Playing almost exclusively as a Designated Hitter, Martinez cemented his legacy as one of the greatest hitters of his generation.
Seattle won the A.L. West again in 1997 and 2001, as well as the 2000 Wild Card, but never made the World Series during Martinez’s career. He retired after the 2004 season.
Hall of Fame?
Edgar Martinez spent his entire 18-year career with the Seattle Mariners. At a time when the team could not hang onto their other stars, Edgar was a consistently excellent, and stable force for their organization. He hit .312/.418/.515, 147 OPS+ for his career. He was a seven-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers, and two batting titles. Edgar received MVP votes five times, peaking at third place in his historic 1995 season.
JAWS treats Edgar Martinez as a third-baseman, ranking him 11th all-time. In reality, Edgar served as Seattle’s DH in 1403 games, and made less than half that number of appearances in the field.
Although other Hall of Famers such as Frank Thomas and Harold Baines spent significant parts of their careers at DH, Martinez has spent the last ten years as the first pure DH to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate. His lack of defensive contributions, combined with his comparatively low counting stats stemming from his late breakthrough in the big leagues have held him back despite his excellent rate numbers.
After receiving 70.4% of the vote in his 9th season a year ago, it appears that Edgar Martinez will be elected by the BBWAA in his 10th, and final, year on the ballot. He would join former Mariners teammates Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson in representing a golden age of Mariners baseball in Cooperstown.
7. Scott Rolen
JAWS: 56.9 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)
Scott Rolen was born and raised in Southern Indiana. After graduating from Jasper High School in 1993, Rolen was a second round draft pick of the Philadelphia Phillies. By the time his first full professional season had concluded, Rolen was already recognized as one of the top prospects in baseball. He was ranked in Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects three straight seasons beginning in 1995.
Rolen made his big league debut in 1996, and became an everyday player in 1997 at the age of 22. He won the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1997, producing 4.5 bWAR and 121 OPS+.
He was better still in 1998. Rolen combined a 139 OPS+ with Gold Glove defense to produce 6.7 bWAR. It was his best season with the Phillies.
In seven seasons with Philadelphia, Rolen hit .282/.373/.504, 126 OPS+, and produced 29.3 bWAR. The Phillies failed to make the postseason during Rolen’s tenure. With their star third baseman heading towards free agency, the club traded Rolen at the 2002 deadline to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Upon arriving in St. Louis, Rolen became a driving force in the Cardinals’ runaway effort to win the N.L. Central. A contract extension kept Rolen in St. Louis for six seasons. He would go on to hit .286/.370/.510, 127 OPS+, and produce 25.9 bWAR. The Cardinals made the playoffs in four of his six seasons, won two National League pennants, and the 2006 World Series.
After 2007, coming off his second down year in three, the Cardinals swapped Rolen for Toronto third baseman Troy Glaus. Rolen rebounded in Toronto, but with the Jays out of contention in 2009, they traded him to the Cincinnati Reds in July.
Rolen spent the final three-plus seasons of his storied career in Cincinnati. Although he had just one star caliber season for the Reds, he did contribute to two N.L. Central titles.
Hall of Fame?
In his 17-year career, Scott Rolen hit .281/.364/.490, 122 OPS+. He was a consistently excellent defensive player, and finished his career 12th in games played at third base. Rolen was a seven-time All Star who won eight Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes four times, including a fourth place finish in 2004.
Rolen ranks as the 10th best third baseman by JAWS, one spot ahead of Edgar Martinez. Unlike Martinez, Rolen is a full-fledged third baseman, and ultimately the superior overall player. Every eligible third baseman ranked above him is in the Hall of Fame.
After receiving just 10.2% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, Rolen faces an uphill battle in the coming years. The early publicly available returns indicate he should gain some ground this year, but his election is hardly imminent, or certain.
Rolen was a superior overall player to several players who are currently tracking better than him in the voting. Ultimately, I suspect that Scott Rolen will gradually gain support, and eventually earn induction in Cooperstown.
6. Roy Halladay
JAWS: 57.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Roy Halladay was born and raised in the Denver, Colorado area. A 1995 graduate of Arvada West High School, Halladay was selected 17th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays that June. Halladay performed well in the low minors, and was pushed aggressively through the Blue Jays system. He reached Triple-A during his age-20 season, and made his big league debut the following year.
Like the Blue Jays organization, the scouting community agreed that Halladay was a premium prospect. Baseball America ranked him 38th, or better, each season from 1997-1999. In retrospect, it’s easy to see that Halladay may not have been as well prepared for the big leagues as it appeared at first glance. His strikeout/walk numbers in the high minors were unremarkable– a trend that followed him to the big leagues.
After he was battered for 19 games in 2000, Halladay carried a 5.77 ERA through 231 innings. He was sent all the way back to High Class-A in 2001. It was during his return to the minors that Halladay famously overhauled his mechanics and mental approach. By the time he returned to the big leagues in July, he was a completely different pitcher. He finished the season with 105.1 big league innings at 145 ERA+.
In 2002, Halladay proved that his transformation was permanent. He made the All Star team, and led the league with 239.1 innings at 157 ERA+.
In 2003, he upped the ante with 266 innings, also leading the league with 22 wins, nine complete games, and a 6.38 K/BB ratio. He was again an All Star, and won 26 of 28 first place votes for the Cy Young.
After injuries in 2004-2005 limited him to just 274.2 total innings, Halladay resumed his dominance of the American League in 2006. He finished his Blue Jays career with four straight top-five Cy Young finishes, and 930.1 innings at 142 ERA+.
Halladay’s tenure in Toronto came to a crossroads after the 2009 season. Despite his individual brilliance, Halladay had been unable to elevate the Blue Jays to the playoffs at any point in his career. In December, Toronto traded him to the defending champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Halladay was brilliant in his initiation to the National League in 2010. He led the league with 21 wins, 250.2 innings, and 1.1 BB/9. The Phillies won their fourth straight N.L. East title. Halladay threw a no-hitter in the NLDS opener against the Reds, but the Phillies fell to the Giants in the NLCS. After the season, Halladay won the Cy Young, making him just the fifth player to have won the award in both leagues at the time.
He was similarly excellent in 2011, pacing the N.L. in ERA+ (163) and FIP (2.20). The Phillies won the division again before losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Hallday finished second in the Cy Young race.
Injuries took their toll on Halladay after 2011. In his last two seasons, he struggled to remain on the mound, and was mostly ineffective when he did. He retired after his age-36 season.
Hall of Fame?
In his 16-year career, Roy Halladay established himself as one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. He finished with a record of 203-105 and 131 ERA+. He was even more superb in the 11 seasons in the middle of his career. From 2001-2011, he was 175-78 with a 148 ERA+.
Halladay was an eight-time All Star. He led the league in wins twice, and innings four times during his career. In addition to his two Cy Youngs, he finished fifth, or better, another five times in his career including two second-place finishes.
JAWS ranks Halladay as the 43rd best starting pitcher in history. The system is structured to reward peak level dominance, which is essential to Halladay’s case. What he lacks in longevity, and counting stats, he makes up for with his marvelous 11-year peak.
I have previously mentioned that I prefer to give considerable weight to peak level brilliance when evaluating Hall of Fame candidates. Roy Halladay is a poster boy for the reasons why. Anyone who watched him pitch during his peak knew they were witnessing a Hall of Fame career. Even if he doesn’t check all of the boxes for counting stats, there is little doubt he was one of the best pitchers of his era.
Roy Halladay appears poised to be elected to the Hall of Fame this winter, on the first ballot.
Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.
Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.
Freddy Garcia was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Houston Astros in 1993. In 1998, the Astros packaged him with Carlos Guillen and John Halama to acquire future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson from the Seattle Mariners. Johnson made 11 dominant starts for Houston, helping them to the NL Central championship before signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks after the season. Garcia and Guillen would each end up among the greatest players in Mariners history.
In six seasons with Seattle, Freddy Garcia went 76-50 with a 114 ERA+, accumulating 18.7 bWAR. He was a two-time All Star with the Mariners and led the American League in ERA (3.05) and innings (238.2) in 2001.
With Garcia approaching free agency, the Mariners dealt him to the Chicago White Sox in June, 2004. From 2004-2006, Garcia made 82 starts for the White Sox, remaining consistently above-average in the process. He was a key piece of the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox.
Chicago traded Garcia to the Phillies after the 2006 season. From 2007-2013, Garcia bounced around to six teams including a return engagement with the White Sox in 2009-2010. In 2011, he made 25 starts at 119 ERA+ to help the Yankees win the A.L. East. Overall, he struggled to remain both healthy and effective for much of his final seven seasons.
Hall of Fame?
Freddy Garcia is one of the best pitchers in the comparatively short history of the Seattle Mariners. He will be listed on the all-time Mariners starting rotation here on Franchise Phenoms. He also holds a special place in the hearts of White Sox fans for his role in ending their franchise’s World Series drought.
As his JAWS ratings would suggest, Freddy Garcia clearly falls below the standard for Hall of Fame starting pitchers. Garcia is probably one-and-done on the ballot. At the same time, he will be fondly remembered by the fan bases of at least two franchises, and that is what we’re all about at Franchise Phenoms.
24. Derek Lowe
JAWS: 31.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)
Derek Lowe was selected by the Seattle Mariners in the 8th round of the 1991 draft out of Ford High School in Dearborn, MI. Lowe made his big league debut with the Mariners in 1997. That July, he was traded with Jason Varitek to the Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb. Slocumb made minimal impact on the Mariners while Lowe and Varitek would become Franchise Phenoms for Boston.
In eight seasons with the Red Sox, Lowe would go on to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history. Lowe began his career as a versatile, mult-inning arm before becoming closer, and eventually shifting to the starting rotation for the second half of his Red Sox career. He was a two-time All Star, once as a reliever, and once as a starter. He led the league in saves in 2000, and finished third in the Cy Young voting as a starter in 2002. In 1037 innings, he posted 127 ERA+ and 19.4 bWAR.
Lowe was the winning pitcher in Game Four of the 2004 World Series, as the Red Sox finished off a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals and dispelled the Curse of the Bambino.
Following the 2004 season, Lowe signed a four-year contract to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the Dodgers, Lowe was largely the same pitcher he had been in Boston. He was a key piece of L.A.’s staring rotation, throwing strikes and racking up ground balls. He finished his Dodgers tenure with 120 ERA+ and 13.3 bWAR. Lowe helped the Dodgers to the postseason in 2006 and 2008.
In 2009, heading into his age-36 season, Lowe signed a free agent deal to join the Atlanta Braves. Although he remained durable, he was less effective during his three years in Atlanta. In 2012-2013, Lowe concluded his career by bouncing from Cleveland to the Yankees, and finally to Texas.
Hall of Fame?
Derek Lowe holds an important place in Red Sox history. His role on the 2004 World Series winners will ensure him a place in Red Sox lore.
Lowe had an excellent 11-year stretch in Boston and L.A. where he was above-average in every season but one. For all of his reliability and sustained success, he was seldom dominant. Aside from 1999-2000 out of the bullpen, and his third-place Cy Young finish as a starter in 2002, Lowe was most often not recognized among the very best pitchers of his generation.
Like Garcia, Lowe falls well short of the Hall of Fame standards for staring pitchers and figures to have a short stay on the ballot. His immortal status in Boston will remain his true legacy.
23. Kevin Youkilis
JAWS: 31.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)
Kevin Youkilis was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Cincinnati. As a minor leaguer, Youkilis was made famous beyond his prospect status when he was dubbed “The Greek god of Walks” in Moneyball.
Youkilis made his big league debut for the Red Sox in May, 2004. He played a supporting role in the team’s improbable run to its first World Series championship since 1918.
Youkilis was a slightly above-average hitter from 2004-2007. His plate discipline translated nicely, but he failed to show the home run power desired for a corner player.
In the 2007 playoffs, Youkilis was a monster. He hit .500/.576/.929 in Boston’s seven game series win over the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS. The Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the World Series to earn their second championship in four seasons.
Then the power started to show. From 2008-2011, Youk was one of the best offensive players in baseball. He averaged 142 OPS+ and 5.5 bWAR per season during that stretch. He was an All Star in three of those four seasons, and twice got MVP votes finishing third in 2008, and sixth in 2009. With Youk as a driving force, Boston made the playoffs again in both 2008 and 2009.
By 2012, the 33-year-old Youkilis was slowing down. The Red Sox traded him to the White Sox in June. He was better in Chicago, but nothing like the player he had been the previous four years. He played 28 games with the Yankees in 2013, but injuries severely limited him. Youk played 21 games in Japan in 2014, but never returned to the big leagues.
Hall of Fame?
Kevin Youkilis enjoyed a surprisingly short 10-year career in the Major Leagues. His distinctive nickname, facial hair, and batting stance all contributed to a cult following in Red Sox Nation. 96% of his career bWAR was accumulated in parts of nine seasons with the Red Sox. He was a three-time All Star, and won a Gold Glove at first base in 2007.
I will confess to being mildly startled by the realization that Youk played more career games at first base than at third. His career 123 OPS+ would look considerably better at the hot corner. Either way, a 10-year career is seldom enough to earn a place in Cooperstown.
Like Garcia and Lowe, Kevin Youkilis was a great player who will be fondly remembered for his role on championship teams, but not a Hall of Famer.
22. Omar Vizquel
JAWS: 36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)
Omar Vizquel is the first truly interesting case in this exercise. Now in his second year on the ballot, Vizquel showed nicely last winter, earning 37% of the vote. As an 11-time Gold Glover and three-time All Star, Vizquel clearly has some staying power.
Vizquel is one of the best defensive players in baseball history. What makes his candidacy interesting is that it is almost entirely dependent on defense.
In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter. He was an above-average offensive player just twice. This type of candidate is rare, and Vizquel figures to be one of the more polarizing figures on the ballot in coming years.
Placido Polanco was born and raised in the Dominican Republic. After finishing high school in Santo Domingo, Polanco came to the United States. He attended Miami-Dade Junior College in Florida where he was drafted twice. First, in the 49th round by the White Sox in 1993, and then again in the 19th round by the Cardinals the following year.
At the tender age of 22, Polanco made his big league debut with the Cardinals during Mark McGwire’s home run chase in 1998. Never much of an offensive player in the minors, it took Polanco time to acclimate to the big leagues as well. He was a part-time player until 2001, and failed to post a single above-average offensive line in his five seasons with the Cardinals.
At the 2002 trade deadline, Polanco joined left-hander Bud Smith as the headliners in a package that landed Phillies Franchise PhenomScott Rolen in St. Louis. Polanco elevated his offensive game in Philadelphia by gradually unlocking a little more power and patience. He became a consistently above-average hitter with the Phillies from 2002-2005.
In June, 2005 the Phillies traded Polanco to the Detroit Tigers for closer Ugueth Urbina. Polanco had the best seasons of his career in Detroit from 2005-2009. In 2007 he earned All Star, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger honors for the first time in his career at 31 years old. He won his second Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009.
Polanco returned to Philadelphia from 2010-2012. In 2011, he made his second All Star team and won his third Gold Glove, this time at third base. He finished his career with the Marlins in 2013.
Hall of Fame?
Placido Polanco played 16 seasons in the big leagues. He was most often an average player, but occasionally a star.
Never the best player on his own team, much less the league, Polanco figures to join Garcia, Lowe, Youkilis, and probably 10 others as one-and-done’s on this year’s ballot.
Philadelphia Phillies Franchise Phenom Chase Utley was released from his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday. The move was meant to facilitate his retirement. To commemorate the end of his great career, we take a look back at one of the greatest players in Phillies franchise history. We will also explore where Utley’s legacy leaves him in the history of our great game.
Chase Utley was born and raised in Southern California. Utley was selected by his hometown team, the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second round of the 1997 amateur draft out of Polytechnic High School in Long Beach. Rather than sign with the Dodgers, he enrolled at UCLA. Following his junior season for the Bruins, Utley was selected 15th overall by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2000 draft.
Utley quickly rose through the Philadelphia farm system. By 2002, the 23-year-old infielder was in Triple-A, clearly among the best prospects in the minors.
Time Lost
The Phillies sent Utley back to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin 2003 in what would prove to be a foolish maneuver. He dominated the International League during his second stint in Triple-A while the Phillies received brutal production from a pair of veteran third basemen. Utley held his own in a 43-game trial, most of which was in August and September. The Phillies won 86 games, and finished five out of the postseason.
Inexplicably, the Phillies jerked him around again at the start of the 2004 season. Utley spent April back in Triple-A before finally earning a permanent place with the big club. David Bell was better at third than he had been the year before, and Placido Polanco was steady at second. Utley managed just 287 plate appearances in the big leagues in his age 25 season. The Phillies again won 86 games, this time finishing six out of the playoffs.
In light of the career that Utley went on to have, it is fair to wonder how much different Phillies history may have been if they had committed to him sooner. For a team in playoff contention for most of 2003-2004, an earlier emergence for one of the greatest players in franchise history could have swung the balance in their favor. Unfortunately, we will never know.
Phillies Career
The Phillies finally committed to Utley more completely in 2005. Polanco was dealt to Detroit in June, and second base in Philadelphia belonged to Chase Utley. In 147 games, he hit .291/.376/.540, good for 132 OPS+. He received some down ballot MVP votes at the conclusion of the year. The team’s inexcusable decision to stick with David Bell through his second miserable season in three years probably cost them the playoffs. With 88 wins, they finished one game out of the Wild Card, and two games out of the Division lead.
2006 would be the sixth straight 80+ win season, none of which resulted in a playoff appearance. Utley made his first All Star team and led the league with 131 runs. He also won his first Silver Slugger, and finished seventh in the MVP voting. With 85 wins, the Phillies were three games out of the Wild Card.
Getting Over The Hump
Following an extended run of respectable mediocrity, better days were ahead for the Phillies starting in 2007. Chase Utley would be right at the center of things.
From 2007-2011, the Phillies won five straight division championships. Utley hit .290/.386/.583, 132 OPS+, and averaged 6.9 bWAR during that stretch. On teams littered with some of the greatest players in franchise history, Chase Utley was arguably the best of them all.
2008
The 2007 Phillies won the NL East, but were swept in the NLDS by the Rockies. With the roster largely intact, Philadelphia repeated as division champs in 2008. Franchise PhenomsCole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins were excellent. Ryan Howard was still among the game’s most feared sluggers, and Brad Lidge was arguably the best reliever in baseball.
On a team loaded with talent, Chase Utley was clearly the best player on the roster. 2008 was Utley’s career year as his usual stellar offense was accompanied by perhaps the best defensive season of his career. He finished with a career best 9.0 bWAR.
2008 Playoffs
In the NLDS the Phillies were matched up with Wild Card team, the Milwaukee Brewers. Although Utley was the least productive regular in the Phillies lineup, his teammates carried him. Philadelphia won the series in four games and rolled into the NLCS.
In the NLCS, the Phillies had home field advantage over the NL West Champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers. With their ace Cole Hamels rested, and at the height of his powers, Philadelphia was at a decided advantage.
After a rough NLDS, Utley was excellent against the Dodgers. Hamels controlled Game One, holding L.A. to two runs in seven innings. It was Utley’s two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth that tied the game. Left fielder Pat Burrell followed suit two batters later to put the Phillies on top for good.
Utley walked four times in five trips to the plate in Game Two. His teammates slugged out an 8-5 win to take commanding position in the series.
Out west, the Dodgers took Game Three. The Phillies answered back in Game Four. Utley had three hits and an RBI in the win. In Game Five, Utley was 0-4 but walked twice and scored. Hamels allowed one run over seven innings, and the Phillies clinched their first World Series trip since 1980. Utley hit .353/.522/.647 in the series to lead the offense.
2008 World Series
Coming off an incredible Game Seven victory over the Red Sox in the ALCS, the Tampa Bay Rays were riding hot. Themselves winners of 97 games in the regular season, the Rays were loaded with some of their own franchise greats.
Hamels was rested enough to start Game One. Utley delivered the first blow with a two-run homer off Scott Kazmir in the top of the first. Hamels allowed two runs in seven innings before turning it over to the bullpen. Philadelphia took the opener 3-2.
James Shields held the Phillies at bay in Game Two. Tampa won 4-2 to even the series.
Utley delivered again in Game Three. This time it was a solo homer off Matt Garza to lead off the bottom of the sixth to extend the Phillies lead to 3-1. They held on to win 5-4.
The Philadelphia offense exploded in Game Four behind Joe Blanton. Ryan Howard homered twice, and drove in five runs. Utley walked twice and scored a pair of runs. The Phillies won 10-2 to take a 3-1 series lead.
Game Five featured Hamels against Kazmir again. Hamels cemented his place as the World Series MVP allowing just two runs over six innings. In a game that was ultimately decided by the bullpens, Philadelphia won 4-3 to secure their second championship in franchise history. Utley hit just .167 in the series, but homered twice, walked five times, ultimately leading the Phillies with five runs scored.
Repeat?
The 2009 Phillies returned the core of their championship team. The additions of veterans Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee as well as the emergence of J.A. Happ helped infuse the team with new blood as well. With 93 wins, the Phillies took their third straight NL East title.
For the fourth straight season, Chase Utley was an All Star and received MVP votes. His 8.2 bWAR was only slightly lower than his 2008 career year. His consistently excellent play was once again a driving force in the team’s success.
In a series that featured three one-run games, the Phillies defeated the Rockies in four games in the NLDS. Utley hit .429/.556/.643 to help lead the way.
For the second straight season, the Phillies met the Dodgers in the NLCS. Utley struggled, but still managed to reach base eight times in five games. The offense and starting rotation carried a suspect bullpen in blowout wins in the third and fifth games. The Phillies took the series in five to win their second straight National League pennant.
In the World Series, the Phillies were matched up with the New York Yankees. Utley was otherworldly. In six games, he hit .286/.400/1.048. His five homers, seven runs, and eight RBI were tops for the series. Unfortunately, the pitching staff was less impressive. The Yankees took the series in six to dethrone the defending champs.
Super Teams (2010-2011)
With their remarkable core of position players still under team control, and nearing the end of their respective primes, the clock was ticking after 2009. To their great credit, Phillies management went all in. In December 2009, they traded for another ace in Roy Halladay.
When the 2010 team made a late push to close the gap in the division to 3.5 games in late July, the front office acted again. They shipped three talented young players, including Happ, to the Astros for veteran ace Roy Oswalt.
With three of the best pitchers in baseball on their staff, the Phillies finally overtook the Braves in September. They finished the season with 97 wins and their fourth straight NL East title.
2010 Playoffs
Utley was yet again at the heart of things when the Phillies swept the Reds in the NLDS. His three runs, and four RBI led the way. When Roy Halladay tossed a no-hitter in Game One, it seemed the Phillies might be the favorites heading deeper into October.
Unfortunately, the Phillies ran into another loaded pitching staff in the NLCS. The San Francisco Giants matched the Phillies pitch for pitch. After three one-run victories, the Giants sent the Phillies home in six games.
2011
With the core of their offense returning, and one of the most talented starting rotations in modern history, the 2011 Phillies were a juggernaut. At 3.8 bWAR, Utley ranked just fifth on the team behind the trio of aces Lee, Halladay, and Hamels as well as center fielder Shane Victorino. Their 102-60 record is the best in franchise history.
When the most talented team in franchise history lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in five games in the NLDS, it was a crushing blow. A veteran team with dominant starting pitching, and a core of position players who had won rings just a few years before, the Phillies were widely considered the favorites in 2011. For his part, Utley was excellent leading the Phillies offense with a .438/.571/.688 line in the series.
It Ended Without Us Knowing
With the bulk of the team returning yet again in 2012, it seemed the Phillies were as good a bet as anyone to head back to the postseason. Then the season began, and it quickly became apparent that 2012 was a new year. By June 12, the Phillies were 9.5 games out. They never led the division after opening day.
Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz were still solid on offense. Hamels and Lee were still among the games best starters. Unfortunately, everyone else struggled. The remaining core group of veterans looked significantly older. The optimism that persisted even after their disappointing loss in 2011 was quickly gone as the team had to confront the prospect of an expensive core of veterans aging in a less than graceful fashion.
Utley remained one of the top second basemen in the game in 2013-2014. Most efforts to patch the roster failed, however. The core of some of the greatest teams in Phillies history was depleted beyond repair.
In 2015, father time finally caught up to Utley as well. After 73 rough games, the Phillies traded one of the greatest players in their history to the eventual NL West champion Dodgers in an under the radar August deal.
After Philadelphia
After moving to the Dodgers, Utley instantly went from being the face of a franchise to just another player. He was acquired not to save the team, but to support it.
From 2015-2018, Utley served as a semi-regular player, platoon option, and veteran leader in Los Angeles. On a wonderfully deep and versatile roster, Utley was just one of the boys. Still, he contributed to four straight division champions. He even returned to the World Series in 2017 when the Dodgers were defeated by the Houston Astros.
Utley announced his intention to retire after the 2018 season before it concluded. The Dodgers made the World Series for the second straight season in 2018, but were defeated by the Boston Red Sox in five games. Utley was left off the playoff roster.
Legacy
I like Chase Utley as a Hall of Fame candidate. At the same time, I suspect that many modern baseball fans have severely underappreciated him. There are probably a variety of factors at play here.
His particular contributions were diverse and wide-ranging. Chase Utley was good at just about everything on a baseball field. At the same time, he was not elite at most of those things outside of the occasional peak season in one skill or another. Because he was above-average or better at just about everything, he was always great even when it wasn’t totally obvious.
Beyond his sneaky greatness, or perhaps because of it, Utley was often not identified as the best player on his own team. Howard and Rollins each won NL MVP awards in seasons when Chase Utley was actually the best player on the Phillies.
Finally, his delayed ascension to big league stardom is probably still a factor even after a stellar 16-year career. Utley didn’t debut until he was 24. He wasn’t an everyday player until he was 26. Most Hall of Fame players simply get started younger. That lost time cost him some important counting stats in the end.
Chase Utley was a six-time All Star and won four Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes four times, but never finished higher than seventh. Viewing him in the context of his place among the all-time Phillies greats might be the most favorable light in which to appreciate his excellent career.
Utley is ranked as the 11th best second baseman in history by JAWS. He comes in right above the current average for Hall of Famers at the position. His peak was fairly short by Hall of Fame standards, but that shouldn’t detract from his case. As a great player on great teams, his intangibles should earn him any benefit of the doubt.
Chase Utley’s Career Highlights from Major League Baseball
In the Watch List series, we will examine four current players from each franchise with the best chance of one day cracking their All-Time Team.
Aaron Nola
Position: RHSP
2019 Age: 26
Career bWAR with Phillies: 16.
Aaron Nola was the 7th overall pick in the 2014 draft. Pitching for his hometown team, the LSU Tigers, Nola had proven to be a dominant collegiate pitcher in the SEC. Due to his advanced command and feel, Nola was viewed as a good bet to contribute to the big league rotation in short order.
Nola climbed through the Philadelphia system quickly. He reached Double-A by the end of his draft year. Half-way through 2015, he made Triple-A. He made his big league debut just over a year after he was drafted in July, 2015.
In his 13-game trial during 2015, Nola acquitted himself nicely. The rookie right-hander posted a 107 ERA+ while continuing to demonstrate advanced command.
2016 was somewhat less successful. While suffering through an elbow injury that threatened to derail his promising career, Nola struggled a bit. In 111 innings, his ERA+ was just 87. Some bad luck on batted balls gave the impression that some of the shine had worn off the promising hurler. His 3.08 FIP, combined with a strikeout rate that was up almost a full two K/9 from his rookie year, told a very different story.
In 2017, Nola again missed a handful of starts managing injury. When he was healthy, his BABIP corrected itself while his strikeout and walk rates held strong. By the end of the season, he was healthy and rolling. He finished the year with 122 ERA+ over 168 innings, and 4.3 bWAR.
Nola blew up in 2018. In 212.1 innings over 33 starts, he was 17-6 with a 3.01 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates held steady, and this time he was lucky on the batted ball front. He finished with 175 ERA+ and 10.5 bWAR, tops among NL pitchers. He also made his first All Star team.
Outlook
Nola’s monster 2018 campaign has set him on a favorable course to make a run at the Phillies All-Time Team. With 93 starts under his belt, he is tracking quite nicely. He is 41-28 with a 3.35 ERA, 124 ERA+, and continually strong strikeout and walk rates. He now has 16.5 career bWAR.
The Phillies current fifth starter is Chris Short. Short amassed 32.1 bWAR in 14 seasons with the Phillies. In terms of longevity, Nola has some work to do to earn true consideration.
At the same time, Short is clearly reachable for Nola on the dominance side of the equation. A two-time All Star who never received Cy Young votes, Short’s spot was earned with long-term reliability. Short’s ERA+ was 105.
Nola can be a free agent after the 2021 season, giving him three more years of team control. He probably needs something more like six or seven additional healthy and effective seasons in Philadelphia to surpass Short. A contract extension will be required, but as it stands, that certainly seems possible.
Seranthony Dominguez
Position: RHRP
2019 Age: 24
Career bWAR with Phillies: 2.4
Seranthony Dominguez was signed out of the Dominican Republic in October, 2011. He spent two seasons in the Dominican Summer League before heading stateside in 2014. He pitched just 33.2 innings from 2014-2015.
By the time he was 21, Dominguez still had not established himself as a particularly interesting prospect in the Phillies system. The organization’s patience began to payoff in 2016 as he was effective across two levels of A-Ball. He was promoted to High-A in 2017 where he continued to show the ability to miss bats with premium velocity and improving secondary pitches.
Dominguez was shifted to the bullpen full-time in 2018. He was dominant across 11 appearances in the upper minors before making his big league debut at the beginning of May. By the end of the month he had worked his way into the picture for saves. By the end of the season, he had a lock on the closer’s role.
In 58 innings, Dominguez finished with a 2.95 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 16 saves. Although it’s just one season, his 142 ERA+ has him tracking towards a bullpen spot on the Phillies All-Time Team.
Outlook
With a fastball that averages 98 mph backed up by an effective slider and change up, Dominguez should have more good days ahead. His 2.85 FIP almost identically matched his actual ERA, indicating that a healthy Dominguez is a good bet to continue dominating the late innings and racking up saves for the foreseeable future.
The final three arms in the Phillies bullpen are all reachable for Dominguez. None of Turk Farrell, Ricky Bottalico, or Mitch Williams had a Phillies ERA+ better than 119.
As a player still working through his rookie contract who has already established himself as an effective late-inning force, Dominguez has a strong chance to crack the Phillies roster. General health concerns for all pitchers, and the particular volatility of relief pitchers, are the primary potential roadblocks going forward. Dominguez has work to do, but clearly has the tools, and opportunity, to be immortalized as a Phillies great.
Rhys Hoskins
Position: LF/1B
2019 Age: 26
Career bWAR with Phillies: 2.5
Rhys Hoskins was a fifth round draft pick out of Sacramento State University in 2014. A big-bodied slugger, Hoskins posted a 1.001 OPS during his draft year in the WAC. He was productive during his first full professional season, but as a right-handed hitter with limited defensive value, it was fair to be skeptical about his long term prospects.
In 2016, Hoskins mashed 38 homers in the hitter-friendly confines of Reading in the Double-A Eastern League. With the power starting to play in games, it was clear Hoskins was a bat to watch going forward.
After he hit 29 homers in 115 games to begin the 2017 season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies promoted him to the big leagues in August. The 24-year-old slugged another 18 homers in just 50 games, giving him 47 total for the year. Rhys Hoskins had arrived.
Hoskins split time between first base and left field during his debut. After the Phillies signed Carlos Santana in the off season, it was clear that Hoskins would have to spend more time in left going forward.
2018 was another solid season at the plate for Hoskins. Although he exhibited a little less control over the strike zone, and his torrid home run pace from 2017 inevitably slowed, he still posted 125 OPS+ with 34 homers and 87 walks.
Outlook
Through his first 203 games, Hoskins has posted an excellent 134 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR. The disparity between his offensive exploits and overall value to the Phillies is wrapped up on the defensive side of the ball. An adequate first baseman, but below-average left fielder, Hoskins’s career WAR totals figure to be held down as a result of the Phillies playing him out of position.
His competition in the outfield is fierce with Hall of Famers and elite hitters littered across the roster. At first, he is well off the pace of Dick Allen, and likewise has a long way to go to match Ryan Howard‘s body of work in Philly.
Hoskins can be a free agent after the 2023 season. He probably isn’t a strong bet to be an all-time Phillies great. At the same time, his elite power production gives him a better chance than most to crack the roster of one of the game’s oldest franchises.
Jorge Alfaro
Position: C
2019 Age: 26
Career bWAR with Phillies: 1.7
Jorge Alfaro was signed by the Texas Rangers out of Colombia in January, 2010. During his climb through the Texas system, Alfaro earned the nickname “The Legend” for his prodigious physical tools highlighted by an 80-grade arm, and 70 power.
By the time Alfaro was 20, it appeared that he was on the fast track to super-stardom as an exciting two-way catcher. Instead, the upper-minors revealed that his control of the strike zone was problematic, and his defense needed refinement. The package was still attractive, but by the time he was 22, he was no longer untouchable.
With the Rangers working towards an AL West championship in 2015, the club pulled the trigger on a deal to acquire Phillies Franchise Phenom, Cole Hamels at the July 31 trade deadline. Alfaro was one of the headliners in the six-player return the Phillies received for one of the best pitchers in their history.
Alfaro made his debut in Philadelphia the next year with a cup of coffee. He spent most of 2017 languishing in Triple-A before showing signs of life in the majors during August and September.
In 2018, he was the primary catcher for the Phillies. In 108 games, he posted 95 OPS+ while playing respectable defense and contributing 1.2 bWAR.
Outlook
Alfaro remains under Phillies control through the 2023 season. Offensively, the strike zone remains an issue, but the power is still there. The tools to be an above-average defender remain as well.
The backup catcher for the Phillies, Mike Lieberthal, averaged less than two WAR/season even during his prime. Alfaro has already proven he can match that level of production while retaining the upside to be even better.
Given that Lieberthal played 1174 games over parts of 13 seasons in Philly, Alfaro will have to cash in on the promise of his prospect days to overtake him.
Wrapping Up
The 2018 Phillies boasted a foursome of additional pitchers who produced 2+ bWAR. Nick Pivetta, Victor Arano, and Zack Eflin probably lack the pure stuff and upside to be realistic candidates as starting pitchers. Vince Velasquez has some of the best stuff on the staff, but has yet to really put it all together heading into his age 27 season.
In the minor leagues, the Phillies system has some depth, but appears to be lacking in upside. Top-prospect Sixto Sanchez has the type of stuff you can dream on, but has yet to reach Double-A and fought through a balky elbow this year. Third baseman Alec Bohm was the third overall pick out of Wichita State in 2018. His pro debut was unimpressive, but the upside to be an impact corner bat remains.
The Mount RushWAR series will allow us to take a more in-depth look at the careers of the four players with the highest bWAR in franchise history.
Mike Schmidt (106.8)
Background
Mike Schmidt was born and raised in Dayton, Ohio. After graduating from Fairview High School, Schmidt attended Ohio University where he played shortstop.
He was drafted by the Phillies in the second round of the 1971 June Amateur Draft. Schmidt went straight to Double-A Reading after the draft where he was respectable, if not impressive.
He played the bulk of the 1972 season at Triple-A for the Eugene Emeralds. He was largely moved off of shortstop, instead splitting his time between second and third base. Offensively, he dominated the Pacific Coast League. Schmidt posted a .960 OPS and hit 26 homers. He earned his first taste of the big leagues with a September call up.
Phillies Career
Although he didn’t play until the team’s 11th game in 1973, Schmidt had played his last game in the minors. He quickly took over as the team’s regular third baseman, but struggled to adjust offensively. Schmidt finished his rookie year hitting just .196/.324/.373.
Breakout
At 24 years old in 1974, Mike Schmidt was heading for a breakout season. After averaging more than one strikeout per game as a rookie, Schmidt proved that the swing and miss in his game was not a fatal flaw.
Although he would lead the National League in strikeouts in each of the next three seasons, he more than compensated by leading the league in home runs each year as well.
A Golden Age
By 1976, the 26 year old Schmidt was universally recognized as one of the best players in baseball. He had been an All Star in 1974 while finishing 6th in the MVP race. After receiving down-ballot consideration again in 1975, it was easy to wonder what was next for the emerging young star.
With Schmidt leading an incredibly deep lineup, the Phillies were one of the most feared teams of the late 1970s. A solid starting rotation led by fellow Franchise Phenom Steve Carlton, and a deep bullpen, allowed the Phillies to win three straight National League East Championships from 1976-1978.
The Phillies were defeated in the NLCS each season. Despite setting a new franchise record with 101 wins in back-to-back seasons in 1976-1977, the Phillies failed to even reach the World Series. It seemed possible that the Phillies would waste this unprecedented run
When the Phillies slipped to fourth place in 1979, it seemed fair to wonder if they had missed their window for a World Series. The performances of several key players fell off considerably, but Schmidt remained excellent. He set a new career high with 45 homers, and led the league with 120 walks.
1980
The 1980 Philadelphia Phillies finished second in the NL in runs scored despite half of the regular players being below-average hitters. Mike Schmidt picked up the slack.
Schmidt led the league with career-highs in homers (48) and RBI (121). He also paced the circuit in slugging (.624) and OPS+ (171)– his second best marks in those categories. Schmidt made the All Star Team, and won both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger at third base. He was the unanimous National League MVP.
The Phillies won the NL East at 91-71. Though Schmidt struggled in the NLCS, his teammates carried him to victory over the Houston Astros in five games.
The 1980 World Series pit the Phillies against the Kansas City Royals, themselves winners of 97 games. On baseball’s grandest stage, Mike Schmidt came back to life.
Philadelphia took the opener at home. Schmidt played the hero in Game Two. His one-out double off Dan Quisenberry in the bottom of the 8th broke a 4-4 tie and put the Phillies up for good.
The Royals tied the series at two games each back home in Kansas City. Schmidt’s solo homer broke a scoreless tie in the fourth inning of Game Five. It was his second of the series. The Phillies won 4-3 to retake the series lead.
Back home in Philadelphia for Game Six, Schmidt led the charge again. His RBI single in the bottom of the third put the Phillies ahead for good. After the game, Schmidt was named the World Series MVP. He hit .381/.462/.714 over the six games. His two homers, seven RBI, and six runs all paced the Phillies during the series.
In plain and simple terms, there is no way the Philadelphia Phillies win the 1980 World Series without Michael Jack Schmidt.
What do you do for an encore?
The Phillies returned the bulk of their 1980 championship squad in 1981. When the players went on strike on June 12, the Phillies were sitting atop the NL East at 34-21.
Mike Schmidt was still at the peak of his powers in 1981. He would finish the strike-shortened season as the NL leader in runs, homers, RBI, walks, OBP, slugging, and OPS+. Schmidt was one of the great casualties of the strike. He played 102 of Philadelphia’s 107 games and was on pace to challenge for career highs in just about every statistical category. Although it wasn’t unanimous this time, Schmidt was named NL MVP for the second straight season.
Play did not resume until August 10. For playoff purposes, the league announced that the season would be divided into two halves. The division leaders for each half of the season would play each other in an additional playoff round. The Phillies went 25-27 in the second half, finishing third in the east behind the Montreal Expos. The Division Series went the full five games, but the Expos defeated the Phillies, ending their championship defense.
In 1982, the Phillies missed the postseason for what would be just the second time in eight seasons. Schmidt led the NL in OPS+ for the third straight season at 161. He was also tops in walks (107), OBP (.403), and slugging (.547).
1983
The 1983 season was yet another vintage Mike Schmidt campaign. Now 33 years old, Schmidt once again put the Philadelphia offense on his back. He led the NL in OPS+ for the fourth straight season at 156. His career-high 128 walks fueled a .399 OBP– both marks were tops in the NL. His 40 homers also led the league.
The Phillies won 90 games, and the NL East, in 1983. Schmidt terrorized the Dodgers in the NLCS. He finished the series with a .467/.529/.800 line as the Phillies won in four games.
The World Series matched Philadelphia with a 98-win Baltimore Orioles team. The Baltimore pitching staff proved too much for the Phillies to handle. Schmidt struggled, and with his fortunes went those of the Phillies. Baltimore took the series in five games, winning three of them by just one run.
Final Stage
It would be a decade before the Phillies would return to the playoffs. In the final six seasons of Schmidt’s career, the Phillies had a winning record just once more, a second-place finish in 1986.
For his part, Schmidt remained excellent for much of that stretch. From 1984-1988, Schmidt posted a .279/.377/.520 line, good for 144 OPS+. He made the All Star team three more times in his mid-30s, and was the NL MVP for the third and final time in 1986.
Despite a sub-par start by his standards, Schmidt was selected to the All-Star team for the 12th and final time in 1989. Unfortunately, May 28 would be his last game of any kind.
Legacy
For a franchise whose overall track record has been pretty poor, Mike Schmidt was the driving force behind some of the best teams in Phillies history. Philadelphia made seven playoff appearances during Schmidt’s career. They also played in three World Series, including the first championship in franchise history.
Mike Schmidt is easily the best player in Phillies history. He is the franchise leader in games played (2404), runs (1506), total bases (4404), homers (548), RBI (1595), walks (1507), and times on base (3820).
Schmidt was, by any measure, one of the greatest players of his era. He led the NL in bWAR for position players four times. He paced the senior circuit in homers eight times, OPS+ six times, slugging five times, RBI and walks four times each, OBP three times, and runs once.
Schmidt received MVP votes in 12 different seasons. He finished in the top-three five times, and won the award in 1980, 1981, and 1986. He ranks 11th all-time in career MVP Shares. He was a 12-time All Star who won 10 Gold Gloves, and six Silver Sluggers.
At 25th all-time in bWAR, Schmidt is arguably the greatest third baseman in history. No player who played a majority of his games at the hot corner has more career WAR than Schmidt. His truly unique combination of power, patience, and elite defensive play at third base has no true parallel in the annals of our great game.
Mike Schmidt Highlights. Jack Rackham on YouTube
Robin Roberts (71.8)
Background
Robin Roberts was born and raised in Springfield, Illinois. After graduating from Lanphier High School, Roberts enrolled in Michigan State University. Initially a basketball player for the Spartans, Roberts walked on to the baseball team as a pitcher in 1946. By the end of 1947, Roberts had signed a contract with the Phillies.
Roberts began his professional career by going 9-1 with the Wilmington Blue Rocks in the Class-B Interstate League. From Delaware, he was summoned to the big club in June, 1948.
Phillies Career
Upon his arrival in Philadelphia, the 21-year-old Roberts was immediately inserted into the starting rotation. Over his first two seasons, he established himself as an effective pitcher, posting a 112 ERA+ in 373.1 innings.
Breakout
1950 was a big year in Phillies history, and Roberts was at the center of it. At age 23, Roberts took a step forward into the upper-echelon of National League pitchers. Roberts was second in the NL with 304.1 innings, second with 20 wins, and fifth in ERA+ at 133. His 7.4 bWAR was tops among NL hurlers.
With Roberts leading the way, the Phillies won the National League pennant with a 91-63 record. 1950 was just the second World Series appearance in Phillies history. In the series, the Phillies ran into a juggernaut in the New York Yankees. Roberts allowed just two runs in 11 innings during the series, but the Phillies offense only mustered five runs total. New York won three one-run games, and swept Philadelphia. It would be 30 years before the Phillies would return to the fall classic.
Peak Roberts
From 1950-1956, Roberts was regarded as one of the best pitchers in the National League. He averaged 319 innings per season at 125 ERA+ during this stretch to accumulate a 157-96 record. He was an All Star during each of the seven seasons. He received MVP votes each year as well, peaking at second place during his 28-win campaign in 1952.
Roberts was the definition of durable during his prime. His excellent control allowed him to pile up effective innings year after year. He led the league in games started six times, innings and complete games five times each, and wins four times. He also had the lowest walk rate, and highest strikeout/walk ratio, in the NL four times. Roberts paced the NL in strikeouts and FIP twice each, and had the lowest WHIP in the league once as well.
For all of his personal excellence, Roberts was unable to lead a Philadelphia return to the postseason after 1950. The club would finish no better than third for the remainder of his tenure.
Decline
Although Roberts made the National League All Star team for the seventh straight time in 1956, his decline had already begun. That season was his worst up to that point in his career, and marked the beginning of a decline from excellence to mediocrity.
In his final six seasons in Philadelphia (1956-1961) Roberts saw his yearly averages drop sharply from his peak. While he maintained his excellent control, he proved to be increasingly hittable. He averaged 238 innings at 94 ERA+ for some of the worst Phillies teams in history. Following a terrible 1961 campaign for Roberts, and the club, it was time for a change.
Post-Phillies Career
After the 1961 season, the Phillies sold Roberts to the Yankees. He was released by the Yankees in May without making an appearance for the club.
Baltimore signed him shortly after his departure from New York. In parts of four seasons with the Orioles, Roberts reestablished himself as an above average pitcher. He worked 761.1 innings at 115 ERA+ for Baltimore before they released him July, 1965.
The Astros brought him on board shortly thereafter. Roberts was excellent down the stretch for Houston in 1965. 1966 was a different story. Roberts was adequate, but below-average for Houston through early July. He was again released, this time hooking up with the Cubs to finish out the season, and his career with 48.1 final innings.
Legacy
While he isn’t the most famous pitcher in Phillies history, Robin Roberts produced more value over the course of his career than any other. What he lacked in dominance he made up for with control, reliability, and durability.
Roberts remains the franchise’s all-time leader in games pitched (529), innings (3739.1), and complete games (272). He was a seven-time All Star.
Roberts was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1976. Although he lacks the big strikeout numbers, or win totals of some of his fellow Hall of Famers, his career resume speaks for itself. Ultimately, he has a case to be included among the top 25-30 pitchers in big league history.
Robin Roberts biography from the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum
Steve Carlton (69.6)
Background
Steve Carlton was born and raised in Miami, Florida. After graduating from North High School in Miami, Carlton stayed in town and attended Miami-Dade College. In October, 1963 while still enrolled in college, Carlton signed as an amateur free agent with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Still just 19 years old, Carlton spent the 1964 season climbing the ladder in the Cardinals farm system. In a season split between three levels of the minor leagues, Carlton demonstrated his overwhelming stuff as he struck out 191 hitters in 178 innings. Although his control was still a work in progress (he had 102 walks), it was clear that he had big league stuff.
Cardinals Career
Carlton broke camp with the big club in 1965. He was effective, but used sparingly. The following season he opened up back at Triple-A Tulsa before returning to St. Louis in late July. He made the starting rotation for good in 1967, at the age of 22.
In seven seasons with the Cardinals from 1965-1971, Carlton proved to be one of the most tantalizingly talented left-handers in the game. Though he was a three-time All Star in St. Louis, the best was yet to come.
While demanding a pay raise in early 1972, Carlton held out. The Cardinals ownership, frustrated with their inability to make progress with the talented 27-year-old, traded him to Philadelphia.
In the type of deal you almost never see in the modern game, Carlton was dealt for 26-year-old right-hander Rick Wise, himself coming off an All Star campaign with the Phillies. Wise was an above-average starter for two seasons with the Cardinals– even making the All Star Team in 1973– but it was the Phillies who altered the direction of their franchise with this move.
Phillies Career
Carlton began his career in Philadelphia furious over having been traded. The motivation to prove his worth to the baseball world served to help elevate his game to a new level. Upon arriving in Philadelphia, Carlton immediately became the best pitcher in the league. Lefty won the pitching triple crown, leading the league in wins (27), ERA (1.97), and strikeouts (310). He also paced the circuit in innings (346.1) and complete games (30). Although the team limped to a sixth place finish, Carlton flourished. He was unanimously selected as the NL Cy Young winner and finished 5th in the MVP voting after the season.
From 1973-1976, Carlton remained a workhorse for the Phillies. He averaged 273 innings, 16 complete games, 16 wins, and 212 strikeouts per season during that stretch. At the same time, he was never quite as dominant as he had been in 1972. Although he won 20 games and finished fourth in the Cy Young in 1976, his ERA+ was just 113. His total ERA+ over these four years was just 108.
As a team, the Phillies were on the upswing. They finished second in the NL East in 1975 on the strength of an emerging core of talented hitters led by Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski. In 1976, the Phillies won 101 games, but were swept by the Reds in the NLCS.
Rebirth
In 1977, the 32-year-old Carlton was reborn. He led the NL with 23 wins, and finished third in ERA+ at 153. The Phillies won 101 games for the second straight season. As the ace of their staff, Carlton cruised to his second career Cy Young. He also finished 5th in the MVP voting. Unfortunately, his command abandoned him in two starts in the NLCS, and the Dodgers took the series in four games.
Lefty was excellent again in 1978, working 247.1 innings at a 126 ERA+. The Phillies won the NL East for the third straight year. Facing the Dodgers again, Carlton was better this time around. His complete game effort in Game Three was the only Phillies win in the series.
At age 34, Carlton had a bit of a down year in 1979. He worked 251 innings at 106 ERA+, still managing to win 18 games and make the All Star team. The Phillies finished fourth.
1980
In 1980, it seemed fair to wonder if the world had already seen Carlton’s best. Instead, the 35-year-old turned in one of the best seasons of his career. He led the NL in wins (24), innings (304), strikeouts (286), and ERA+ (162). The Phillies won 91 games, and returned to the playoffs. Carlton received all but one first place vote to win his third Cy Young.
Up to this point in his career, Steve Carlton had been a mixed bag in the postseason. Whether early in his career in St. Louis, or more recently with the Phillies, Carlton had often failed to live up to his reputation as one of the game’s best hurlers. All that was about to change in October, 1980.
In the NLCS, the Phillies were matched up with the Houston Astros. Carlton got the ball in the opener. He allowed just one run in seven innings to give the Phillies an early series lead. The Astros won the next two games, setting Carlton up for Game Four. He battled through 5.1 innings, allowing just two runs before turning the game over to the bullpen who eventually secured the win in 10 innings. The Phillies took Game Five, once again in 10 innings to secure their first National League pennant since Robin Roberts led the staff in 1950.
The 1980 World Series would pit the Phillies against a 97-win Kansas City Royals club. The Phillies won the opener, 7-6 at home, setting up Lefty for Game Two. Carlton fought his control all night, but battled through eight innings, allowing just three earned runs and striking out 10 to earn the win.
Back in Kansas City, the Royals took the next two games to even the series. In Game Five, the Phillies offense rallied for two runs in the top of the ninth off of AL saves leader Dan Quisenberry to retake the lead in the series. The table was set for Carlton back home in Philly.
In the biggest game of his career, Steve Carlton delivered. He went seven innings, scattered seven base runners, struck out seven, and allowed just one run before handing the ball over to fellow Franchise Phenom, Tug McGraw for the save. Steve Carlton had led the Phillies to their first World Championship in franchise history.
Age Is Just A Number
Although it seemed Carlton had slowed down in his early-thirties, 1980 proved he had something left in the tank. 1981-1982 proved he had plenty.
In 1981, the Phillies championship defense was caught up in the drama of that year’s players strike. In a seasoned shortened by the labor stoppage, Carlton proved he was still dominant. He led the NL with 8.5 K/9 and posted 151 ERA+ in 190 innings. For all his dominance during the regular season, he was less effective in the playoffs. Carlton suffered two losses in the NLDS as the Phillies lost to the Expos in five games. Carlton was again an All Star, finished third in the Cy Young voting, ninth in the MVP race, and won his only career Gold Glove.
1982 would serve as icing on the cake of a Hall of Fame career. At age 37, Carlton had one more Cy Young run in him. He led the league in wins (23), innings (295.2), complete games (19), and strikeouts (286). The Phillies finished second in the NL East.
Although he was nearly as good in 1983 as he had been the year before, Carlton received less recognition. Teammate John Denny exploded for a Cy Young of his own in a career year. With Denny and Carlton fronting the rotation, the Phillies won the NL East at 90-72. The veteran lefty shredded the Dodgers in the NLCS, allowing just one run in 13.2 innings to help propel the Phillies to another World Series. Unfortunately, the Philadelphia bats went quiet, and Baltimore took the series in five games.
Decline Phase
By the time he finished his age 38 season, Lefty had 4558.2 big league innings under his belt. Father time finally caught up with Carlton beginning in 1984. Although he had two more above-average seasons left in him, durability was a concern where it never had been before. Carlton averaged just 160 innings in 1984-1985.
When Carlton started 1986 with a 6.18 ERA in 16 starts, it was clear that his best days were well behind him. The Phillies released the most dominant pitcher in their history on June 24.
Carlton spent the remainder of 1986-1988 bouncing between the Giants, White Sox, Indians, and Twins. After four rough outings with the Twins in 1988, Carlton was done for good at 43 years old.
Legacy
Over his incredible 24 seasons in the big leagues, Steve Carlton cemented his place among baseball’s all-time greats. His combination of elite durability, dominance, and longevity puts him in special company.
Carlton should probably be considered one of the 15-20 greatest pitchers in big league history. Among his fellow southpaws, Lefty is probably in the top-five.
Carlton finished his career as a 10-time All Star with seven of those selections coming as a member of the Phillies. With four Cy Youngs, he is tied for third most in history. He ranks fifth all-time in Cy Young shares.
He ranks among baseball’s career top-10 in strikeouts (4th), games started (6th), and innings (9th).
Carlton still holds the Phillies franchise records for wins (241), strikeouts (3031), and games started (499). His 329 wins are 11th most in baseball history.
Steve Carlton Strikeout Montage. scottyballgame1 on YouTube
Chase Utley (61.8)
Background
Chase Utley was born and raised in Southern California. Utley was selected by his hometown team, the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second round of the 1997 amateur draft out of Polytechnic High School in Long Beach. Rather than sign with the Dodgers, he enrolled at UCLA. Following his junior season for the Bruins, Utley was selected 15th overall by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2000 draft.
Utley quickly rose through the Philadelphia farm system. By 2002, the 23-year-old infielder was in Triple-A, clearly among the best prospects in the minors.
Time Lost
The Phillies sent Utley back to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin 2003 in what would prove to be a foolish maneuver. He dominated the International League during his second stint in Triple-A while the Phillies received brutal production from a pair of veteran third basemen. Utley held his own in a 43-game trial, most of which was in August and September. The Phillies won 86 games, and finished five out of the postseason.
Inexplicably, the Phillies jerked him around again at the start of the 2004 season. Utley spent April back in Triple-A before finally earning a permanent place with the big club. David Bell was better at third than he had been the year before, and Placido Polanco was steady at second. Utley managed just 287 plate appearances in the big leagues in his age 25 season. The Phillies again won 86 games, this time finishing six out of the playoffs.
In light of the career that Utley went on to have, it is fair to wonder how much different Phillies history may have been if they had committed to him sooner. For a team in playoff contention for most of 2003-2004, an earlier emergence for one of the greatest players in franchise history could have swung the balance in their favor. Unfortunately, we will never know.
Phillies Career
The Phillies finally committed to Utley more completely in 2005. Polanco was dealt to Detroit in June, and second base in Philadelphia belonged to Chase Utley. In 147 games, he hit .291/.376/.540, good for 132 OPS+. He received some down ballot MVP votes at the conclusion of the year. The team’s inexcusable decision to stick with David Bell through his second miserable season in three years probably cost them the playoffs. With 88 wins, they finished one game out of the Wild Card, and two games out of the Division lead.
2006 would be the sixth straight 80+ win season, none of which resulted in a playoff appearance. Utley made his first All Star team and led the league with 131 runs. He also won his first Silver Slugger, and finished seventh in the MVP voting. With 85 wins, the Phillies were three games out of the Wild Card.
Getting Over The Hump
Following an extended run of respectable mediocrity, better days were ahead for the Phillies starting in 2007. Chase Utley would be right at the center of things.
From 2007-2011, the Phillies won five straight division championships. Utley hit .290/.386/.583, 132 OPS+, and averaged 6.9 bWAR during that stretch. On teams littered with some of the greatest players in franchise history, Chase Utley was arguably the best of them all.
2008
The 2007 Phillies won the NL East, but were swept in the NLDS by the Rockies. With the roster largely intact, Philadelphia repeated as division champs in 2008. Franchise Phenoms Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins were excellent. Ryan Howard was still among the game’s most feared sluggers, and Brad Lidge was arguably the best reliever in baseball.
On a team loaded with talent, Chase Utley was clearly the best player on the roster. 2008 was Utley’s career year as his usual stellar offense was accompanied by perhaps the best defensive season of his career. He finished with a career best 9.0 bWAR.
2008 Playoffs
In the NLDS the Phillies were matched up with Wild Card team, the Milwaukee Brewers. Although Utley was the least productive regular in the Phillies lineup, his teammates carried him. Philadelphia won the series in four games and rolled into the NLCS.
In the NLCS, the Phillies had home field advantage over the NL West Champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers. With their ace, Cole Hamels, rested and at the height of his powers, Philadelphia was at a decided advantage.
After a rough NLDS, Utley was excellent against the Dodgers. Hamels controlled Game One, holding L.A. to two runs in seven innings. It was Utley’s two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth that tied the game. Left fielder Pat Burrell followed suit two batters later to put the Phillies on top for good.
Utley walked four times in five trips to the plate in Game Two. His teammates slugged out an 8-5 win to take commanding position in the series.
Out west, the Dodgers took Game Three. The Phillies answered back in Game Four. Utley had three hits and an RBI in the win. In Game Five, Utley was 0-4 but walked twice and scored. Hamels allowed one run over seven innings, and the Phillies clinched their first World Series trip since 1980. Utley hit .353/.522/.647 in the series to lead the offense.
2008 World Series
Coming off an incredible Game Seven victory over the Red Sox in the ALCS, the Tampa Bay Rays were riding hot. Themselves winners of 97 games in the regular season, the Rays were loaded with some of their own franchise greats.
Hamels was rested enough to start Game One. Utley delivered the first blow with a two-run homer off Scott Kazmir in the top of the first. Hamels allowed two runs in seven innings before turning it over to the bullpen. Philadelphia took the opener 3-2.
James Shields held the Phillies at bay in Game Two. Tampa won 4-2 to even the series.
Utley delivered again in Game Three. This time it was a solo homer off Matt Garza to lead off the bottom of the sixth to extend the Phillies lead to 3-1. They held on to win 5-4.
The Philadelphia offense exploded in Game Four behind Joe Blanton. Ryan Howard homered twice, and drove in five runs. Utley walked twice and scored a pair of runs. The Phillies won 10-2 to take a 3-1 series lead.
Game Five featured Hamels against Kazmir again. Hamels cemented his place as the World Series MVP allowing just two runs over six innings. In a game that was ultimately decided by the bullpens, Philadelphia won 4-3 to secure their second championship in franchise history. Utley hit just .167 in the series, but homered twice, walked five times, ultimately leading the Phillies with five runs scored.
Repeat?
The 2009 Phillies returned the core of their championship team. The additions of veterans Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee as well as the emergence of J.A. Happ helped infuse the team with new blood as well. With 93 wins, the Phillies took their third straight NL East title.
For the fourth straight season, Chase Utley was an All Star and received MVP votes. His 8.2 bWAR was only slightly lower than his 2008 career year. His consistently excellent play was once again a driving force in the team’s success.
In a series that featured three one-run games, the Phillies defeated the Rockies in four games in the NLDS. Utley hit .429/.556/.643 to help lead the way.
For the second straight season, the Phillies met the Dodgers in the NLCS. Utley struggled, but still managed to reach base eight times in five games. The offense and starting rotation carried a suspect bullpen in blowout wins in the third and fifth games. The Phillies took the series in five to win their second straight National League pennant.
In the World Series, the Phillies were matched up with the New York Yankees. Utley was otherworldly. In six games, he hit .286/.400/1.048. His five homers, seven runs, and eight RBI were tops for the series. Unfortunately, the pitching staff was less impressive. The Yankees took the series in six to dethrone the defending champs.
Super Teams (2010-2011)
With their remarkable core of position players still under team control, and nearing the end of their respective primes, the clock was ticking after 2009. To their great credit, Phillies management went all in. In December 2009, they traded for another ace in Roy Halladay.
When the 2010 team made a late push to close the gap in the division to 3.5 games in late July, the front office acted again. They shipped three talented young players, including Happ, to the Astros for veteran ace Roy Oswalt.
With three of the best pitchers in baseball on their staff, the Phillies finally overtook the Braves in September. They finished the season with 97 wins and their fourth straight NL East title.
2010 Playoffs
Utley was yet again at the heart of things when the Phillies swept the Reds in the NLDS. His three runs, and four RBI led the way. When Roy Halladay tossed a no-hitter in Game One, it seemed the Phillies might be the favorites heading deeper into October.
Unfortunately, the Phillies ran into another loaded pitching staff in the NLCS. The San Francisco Giants matched the Phillies pitch for pitch. After three one-run victories, the Giants sent the Phillies home in six games.
2011
With the core of their offense returning, and one of the most talented starting rotations in modern history, the 2011 Phillies were a juggernaut. At 3.8 bWAR, Utley ranked just fifth on the team behind the trio of aces Lee, Halladay, and Hamels as well as center fielder Shane Victorino. Their 102-60 record is the best in franchise history.
When the most talented team in franchise history lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in five games in the NLDS, it was a crushing blow. A veteran team with dominant starting pitching, and a core of position players who had won rings just a few years before, the Phillies were widely considered the favorites in 2011. For his part, Utley was excellent leading the Phillies offense with a .438/.571/.688 line in the series.
It Ended Without Us Knowing
With the bulk of the team returning yet again in 2012, it seemed the Phillies were as good a bet as anyone to head back to the postseason. Then the season began, and it quickly became apparent that 2012 was a new year. By June 12, the Phillies were 9.5 games out. They never led the division after opening day.
Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz were still solid on offense. Hamels and Lee were still among the games best starters. Unfortunately, everyone else struggled. The remaining core group of veterans looked significantly older. The optimism that persisted even after their disappointing loss in 2011 was quickly gone as the team had to confront the prospect of an expensive core of veterans aging in a less than graceful fashion.
Utley remained one of the top second basemen in the game in 2013-2014. Most efforts to patch the roster failed, however. The core of some of the greatest teams in Phillies history was depleted beyond repair.
In 2015, father time finally caught up to Utley as well. After 73 rough games, the Phillies traded one of the greatest players in their history to the eventual NL West champion Dodgers in an under the radar August deal.
After Philadelphia
After moving to the Dodgers, Utley instantly went from being the face of a franchise to just another player. He was acquired not to save the team, but to support it.
From 2015-2018, Utley served as a semi-regular player, platoon option, and veteran leader in Los Angeles. On a wonderfully deep and versatile roster, Utley was just one of the boys. Still, he contributed to three straight division champions. He even returned to the World Series in 2017 when the Dodgers were defeated by the Houston Astros.
Utley announced his intention to retire after the 2018 season before it concluded.
Legacy
I suspect that many modern baseball fans have severely underappreciated Chase Utley. There are probably a variety of factors at play here.
His particular contributions were diverse and wide-ranging. Chase Utley was good at just about everything on a baseball field. At the same time, he was not elite at most of those things outside of the occasional peak season in one skill or another. Because he was above-average or better at just about everything, he was always great even when it wasn’t totally obvious.
Beyond his sneaky greatness, or perhaps because of it, Utley was often not identified as the best player on his own team. Howard and Rollins each won NL MVP awards in seasons when Chase Utley was actually the best player on the Phillies.
Finally, his delayed ascension to big league stardom is probably still a factor even after a stellar 16-year career. Utley didn’t debut until he was 24. He wasn’t an everyday player until he was 26. Most all-time great players simply get started younger. That lost time cost him some important counting stats in the end.
Chase Utley was a six-time All Star and won four Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes four times, but never finished higher than seventh. Viewing him in the context of his place among the all-time Phillies greats might be the most favorable light in which to appreciate his excellent career.
Chase Utley’s career highlights from Major League Baseball
Our coverage of each franchise’s all-time greatest players began with the Chicago White Sox. This week, we continue with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Franchise Overview
The Phillies were founded in 1883. They are tied with the Giants as the sixth oldest franchise in big league history. They are one of the eight National League franchises that has existed longer than any American League team.
Their two World Series championships (1980, 2008) are the lowest total of any of the teams that predate the American League.
With a total franchise winning percentage of just 0.472, the Phillies rank fourth worst all-time.
When viewed through the lens of total playoff appearances, the Phillies fare only slightly better. They have appeared in the postseason in 10.3% of their total seasons, the seventh lowest mark in history.
It took the Phillies 98 seasons to win their first world championship. They only managed to win the National League two other times during that stretch (1915 and 1950).
To make matters worse, their crosstown rivals, the Athletics, won five World Series and eight total AL pennants during their years in Philadelphia from 1901-1954.
In the 38 years since they won their first championship, things have been considerably better in Philadelphia. Since 1980, the Phillies have made the playoffs nine times, winning five NL pennants, and the 2008 World Series.
Hitters
Starting Lineup
Name
Position
B/T
bWAR/650
OPS+
Years Played
1.
Bobby Abreu
RF
L/R
5.3
139
1998-2006
2.
Ed Delahanty
LF (1B/2B)
R/R
5.7
153
1888-89, 1891-1901
3.
Dick Allen
1B (3B/LF)
R/R
5.2
153
1963-69, 75-76
4.
Mike Schmidt
3B
R/R
7.0
147
1972-89
5.
Chase Utley
2B
L/R
6.3
122
2003-15
6.
Darren Daulton
C
L/R
3.6
114
1983-97
7.
Richie Ashburn
CF
L/R
4.7
111
1948-59
8.
Jimmy Rollins
SS
S/R
3.2
97
2000-14
9.
Pitcher
P
Bench
OF
Sherry Magee
LF/1B/CF
R/R
5.2
142
1904-14
OF
Sam Thompson
RF
L/L
4.2
144
1889-98
OF
Chuck Klein
RF/LF
L/R
4.0
139
1928-33, 36-38, 39-44
1B
Ryan Howard
1B
L/L
1.2
125
2004-16
IN
Scott Rolen
3B
R/R
5.4
126
1996-2002
C
Mike Lieberthal
C
R/R
2.3
102
1994-2006
Infield
Third Baseman Mike Schmidt is undoubtedly the greatest player in franchise history. Schmidt played his entire 18-year career in Philadelphia. With three MVPs, 12 All Star selections, 10 Gold Gloves, and six Silver Sluggers, Schmidt has a compelling case as the best third baseman in baseball history.
While Schmidt may be the only clear cut top tier all-time player, the rest of the Phillies position players are solid all around. The overall offensive production for the members of the Phillies All-Time Team has them pushing for the top-five among all franchises.
The Phillies won five straight NL East championships from 2007-2011. Not surprisingly, five members of those teams make the All-Time Phillies team. The Phillies pitching staff was dominant during that stretch, but nobody was more important to the team’s success than it’s double-play combination. The duo of Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins treated Phillies fans to a golden age of middle infield play for the better part of 12 seasons.
Even fans who follow the modern game closely might be surprised to find that second baseman Chase Utley crafted a solid Hall of Fame case during his 13 years in Philadelphia. He was a six-time All Star and won four Silver Sluggers.
Playing across the keystone from Utley, shortstop Jimmy Rollins was likewise one of the best all-around players of his day. The switch-hitting Rollins was a three-time All Star who won four Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger for the Phillies. He was the National League MVP in 2007 as the Phillies won their first divisional championship in 14 years.
First baseman Dick Allen was among the most feared sluggers in baseball for the more than a decade. He spent the first seven years of his career in Philadelphia before returning for two more late in his career. Allen was the NL Rookie of the Year in 1964 when he led the league in runs, triples, and total bases. He also led the NL in OPS+ back-to-back seasons in 1966-1967. He was a four-time All Star for the Phillies. He went on to make three more All Star teams with the White Sox where he also won the 1972 AL MVP.
Outfield
Hall of Famer Ed Delahanty is the starter in left field. Although he played before the advent of MVP and All Star voting, he led the league in offensive bWAR three times as a member of the Phillies, and once more for the Washington Senators.
Fellow Hall of Famer Richie Ashburn gets the nod in center field. Ashburn played 12 seasons for the Phillies. An on-base machine who played the overwhelming majority of his career up the middle, Ashburn was a tremendously valuable player. He won batting titles for the Phillies in 1955 and 1958. He also paced the NL in OBP in those seasons as well as 1954. Ashburn made four All Star teams for Philadelphia.
Right fielder Bobby Abreu was among the most talented, and versatile offensive players of his generation. In nine seasons with the Phillies, Abreu made two All Star teams. He also won one Gold Glove, and a Silver Slugger. Abreu’s best seasons were right at the beginning of the sabermetric revolution, and at the end of the steroid era. His unique blend of power, speed, and on-base skills was largely undervalued during his career.
Darren Daulton starts at catcher. In 14 seasons with the Phillies, Daulton was a three-time All Star and won a Silver Slugger. In 1992, he was third among NL position players in bWAR, and led the league with 109 RBI. Amazingly, he is one of only two players (the only hitter) from the 1993 NL Championship team to make the Phillies All-Time team.
Bench
The Phillies have had a remarkable history of excellent outfielders. To reflect that distribution of talent, three outfielders were added to their bench.
Sherry Magee has a strong case to overtake Abreu as the starter in right field. He was an excellent offensive player over 11 years in Philadelphia. He led the NL in average, OBP, slugging, runs, and RBI in a fantastic 1910 season.
Joining Magee as extra outfielders are Hall of Famers Chuck Klein and Sam Thompson.
Klein had a stretch of three straight seasons finishing either first or second in the MVP voting from 1931-1933. He won the award in 1932. A two-time All Star, Klein was among the most feared sluggers in the NL throughout the early part of his career. He led the league in homers four times from 1929-1933.
Thompson played 10 years in Philadelphia before the turn of the century. He led the league twice each in hits, doubles, homers, RBI, and slugging during his years with the Phillies.
First baseman Ryan Howard spent his entire 13-year big league career with the Phillies. Howard burst onto the scene winning the Rookie of the Year in 2005. He led the NL in homers twice, and RBI three times. He was a three time All Star and won one Silver Slugger. In 2006 he hit 58 homers and drove in 149 runs to win the NL MVP.
Howard is difficult player to evaluate in a historical context because his career is a tale of two different players. From 2004-2011, Howard produced 138 OPS+, and was regarded as one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.
On the flip side, from 2012-2016 he played an additional 545 games in which he was a below-average hitter, and miserable defender. In total, the decline phase of his career cost him more than seven bWAR off his career total. In light of the terror he was at the start of his career, and the central role he played during arguably the best stretch in franchise history, I have opted to remember Howard at his best, rather than his worst.
As good as Philadelphia’s lineage of excellent outfielders has been, their legacy in the infield has been just as shallow. Third baseman Scott Rolen is the lone infielder on the Phillies bench. Rolen won the NL Rookie of the Year in 1997. He won four Gold Gloves and one Silver Slugger. He was selected as an All Star in 2002, just weeks before the Phillies would trade him to St. Louis. He remained a similarly excellent player for six seasons with the Cardinals.
Catcher Mike Lieberthal played 13 seasons for the Phillies. He was a two-time All Star and won one Gold Glove. He finished his career as a roughly average hitter at a premium defensive position.
Pitchers
Starting Rotation
Name
B/T
ERA+
Years Played
1.
Steve Carlton
L/L
120
1972-86
2.
Robin Roberts
S/R
114
1948-61
3.
Grover Cleveland Alexander
R/R
140
1911-17, 30
4.
Cole Hamels
L/L
124
2006-15
5.
Chris Short
R/L
105
1959-72
Bullpen
LR
Turk Farrell
R/R
114
1956-61, 67-69
RP
Ricky Bottalico
L/R
115
1994-98, 2001-02
RP
Mitch Williams
L/L
119
1991-93
RP
Tug McGraw
R/L
120
1975-1984
SU
Ryan Madson
L/R
122
2003-11
CL
Ron Reed
R/R
122
1976-83
As good as the Phillies position players have been throughout their history, the pitching staff has been decidedly mediocre for an organization with such a lengthy history.
The Phillies all-time rotation ranks 15th by average ERA+. They boast a trio of Hall of Famers at the front of the group.
The most iconic pitcher in Phillies history is Steve Carlton. “Lefty” earned 241 of his 329 career wins over the course of 15 seasons in Philadelphia. He won an incredible four Cy Young Awards during his Phillies career. He is fifth in big league history with 4.29 career Cy Young shares. He ranks fourth all-time in strikeouts. Carlton was a seven-time All Star for the Phillies, and was chosen 10 times overall. He was the ace of the 1980 World Series champions, winning two games in the series. Steve Carlton is probably among the five greatest left-handed pitchers in history.
Right-hander Robin Roberts pitched 14 seasons of his Hall of Fame career for the Phillies. Remembered for his exceptional control, Roberts was one of the best pitchers of the 1950s. He was a seven-time All Star, and received MVP votes in each of those seven seasons. Roberts led the league in bWAR for pitchers six times in his career.
Grover Cleveland Alexander began his exceptional career with the Phillies in 1911. A dominant pitcher of his day, Alexander led the league in both wins and strikeouts in five of his first seven seasons. He pitched the Phillies to 90 wins, and the pennant, in 1915. After the 1917 season, the Phillies traded Alexander to the Cubs. After missing most of 1918 while fighting in Europe during World War I, Alexander reestablished himself with the Cubs. This second act was a critical piece of his eventual Hall of Fame selection.
Cole Hamels was a consistently reliable force for the Phillies from 2006-2015. The lefty was a three-time All Star. He finished eighth, or better, in the Cy Young voting four times. In 2008, he led the National League with a 1.08 WHIP as the clear cut ace of a World Championship rotation. In the postseason, the Phillies won all five of his starts including two in the World Series.
Left-hander Chris Short rounds out the rotation. In 14 seasons with the Phillies, he helped anchor the pitching staff of some respectable teams. He was a two-time All Star, and received down ballot MVP votes in two seasons as well. He ranked in the top-five among NL pitchers in bWAR three times.
Bullpen
Despite a solid starting rotation, the bullpen of the All-Time Phillies is arguably the weakest unit in this entire exercise. The top three players on the organization’s all-time saves leader board were all placed on the rosters of other franchises. As a result, the Phillies unit that survived is a bit picked over.
Ron Reed gets the call at closer. An average starting pitcher for the first 10 years of his career with the Braves, Reed was reborn as a reliever. After he was traded twice in one season, he landed in Philadelphia. Reed was often dominant out of the Philadelphia bullpen. In 1980, he was one of manager Dallas Green’s most trusted relievers on the organization’s first World Championship team.
Ryan Madson managed an identical ERA+ to Reed in nearly identical bodies of work over the course of their Phillies careers. Like Reed, Madson was also one of the most trusted relievers on a Phillies World Series team (2008). Despite being frequently overshadowed by Brad Lidge, Madson was also a force over nine seasons with Philadelphia. He is third all-time in pitching appearances for the Phillies.
Left-hander Tug McGraw was among the game’s most accomplished relievers when the Phillies acquired him from the Mets after the 1974 season. In ten seasons with Philadelphia, he was mostly excellent, averaging 120 ERA+. Like Reed, he was relied upon heavily during the 1980 World Series run including nailing down saves in two of the four Phillies wins in the series. McGraw made one All Star team in Philadelphia, received Cy Young votes once, and MVP votes twice. He is fourth all-time in pitching appearances for the Phillies.
Mitch Williams was one of the most recognizable relievers of his generation. Wild Thing established his late-inning chops with the Rangers and Cubs before joining the Phillies in 1991. He was sixth in the Cy Young voting in his first season with the club. He then helped pitch them to the World Series in 1993. Although he only pitched three seasons in Philadelphia, he ranks fourth all-time in saves for the Phillies.
Ricky Bottalico played seven seasons over two stints in Philadelphia. He broke into the league with a bang. Over his first three full seasons, Bottalico posted a 139 ERA+, saved 69 games, and made the All Star team in 1996. The remainder of his career consisted of alternating respectability with struggles, and six different team changes.
The final spot in the bullpen went to Turk Farrell. Farrell played nine seasons over two stints with the Phillies. He was an All Star for Philadelphia in 1958. Between his stints in Philadelphia, he was a three-time All Star for Houston.
