December 2018 - Franchise Phenoms

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (3-5)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman.

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

5. Larry Walker

JAWS: 58.7 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Larry Walker signed with the Montreal Expos as an amateur free agent out of British Columbia in November, 1984.

Walker made his big league debut with the Expos. Over six seasons in Montreal, he produced a .281/.353/.483 line, 128 OPS+, and 21.1 bWAR.

Heading into 1995, Walker signed a free agent contract with the Colorado Rockies. In 10 seasons with Colorado, he produced a .334/.426/.618 line, 147 OPS+, and 48.3 bWAR. He was one of the best all around players in the game during his time with the Rockies.

Walker spent the final two seasons of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. He remained an excellent hitter when healthy, posting a 134 OPS+ in 2004-2005. Walker helped the Cardinals reach the playoffs in both years.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Larry Walker’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.565, 141 OPS+. A true five-tool talent, Walker contributed in every facet of the game. He was a five-time All Star who won seven Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, and three batting titles. He received MVP votes eight times, winning the award in 1997.

Walker ranks as the 10th best right fielder in history by JAWS. He is above the average of Hall of Fame right fielders, giving serious weight to his candidacy. Every right fielder with a higher JAWS score than Walker is already enshrined in Cooperstown.

2019 is Walker’s ninth year on the ballot. His candidacy seems to have suffered from a combination of the Coors Field effect, and the number of his seasons that were cut short by injuries.

He did experience a surge last year, jumping from 21.9% of the vote in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018. With two years remaining, he has significant ground to cover. It appears that he will make substantial gains this year, but it’s unclear if he will be able to close the gap to the elusive 75% mark.

For those who saw him play, Larry Walker’s tremendous physical talent placed him among the game’s all-time great five-tool players. Larry Walker was a Hall of Fame player. Hopefully he receives the formal honors that go with it.

4. Mike Mussina

JAWS: 63.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Mike Mussina was born and raised in Central Pennsylvania. A 1987 graduate of Montoursville High School, Mussina was drafted in the 11th round by the Orioles that June. Rather than sign a professional contract, he enrolled at Stanford. In 1990, after his Junior season, Mussina was once again drafted by Baltimore, this time with the 20th overall pick.

As an advanced college arm, Mussina was sent directly to Double-A after signing, and reached Triple-A by the end of his draft year. Baseball America ranked him their #19 prospect heading into 1991. Mussina returned to Triple-A Rochester for some additional seasoning. After 19 minor league starts, he made his big league debut in August, 1991.

Mussina was immediately one of the best pitchers in the American League. After a strong showing in his rookie season, “Moose” made the All Star team for the first time in 1992. He would receive that honor four more times as a member of the Orioles.

In 1996-1997, Mussina led Baltimore’s pitching staff to back-to-back playoff appearances, first as a Wild Card, then to their first A.L. East title in 14 seasons. The Orioles were defeated in the ALDS both years.

Although the Orioles struggled during Mussina’s final three seasons in Baltimore, Moose remained one of the best pitchers in the American League.

In 10 seasons with the Orioles, Mussina went 147-81 with a 3.53 ERA, and 130 ERA+. After 2000, heading into his age-32 season, Mussina hit the free agent market as one of the most sought-after hurlers in the game. Much to the chagrin of Orioles fans, Mussina inked a massive six year, $87 million contract with their division rivals, the New York Yankees.

Mussina spent the last eight years of his career in the Bronx. In 2001, he made good on the first year of his new contract with a 17-11 record, and a league-leading 2.92 FIP. His 7.1 bWAR was tops on a team full of superstars that would go on to win the American League pennant.

The Yankees made the playoffs in each of Mussina’s first seven seasons with the club. When they made it back to the World Series in 2003, Mussina was again the best player on the roster at 6.6 bWAR.

In his late-30s, Mussina was more often an average pitcher than a star. From 2004-2008, he averaged 30 starts, 14 wins, 179 innings, and 107 ERA+. He retired after the 2008 season, despite coming off his first 20-win season, and finishing with his best ERA+ (131) since his first year in New York.

Hall of Fame?

Over the course of his 18-year career, Mike Mussina was one of the most consistently excellent, and durable starters in the game. He finished with a career record of 270-153, 3.68 ERA, and 123 ERA+.

Moose was a five-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, FIP, and walk rate once each during his career. Although he never won a Cy Young, he finished six, or better, nine times including a second place finish in 1999. He was also an excellent fielder, winning seven Gold Gloves.

JAWS ranks Mussina as the 29th best starting pitcher in history, above the average for Hall of Fame starters.

Although he never quite had the same stretch of dominance as the most legendary starters in history, Mike Mussina is a Hall of Famer. For 18 seasons he was one of the most reliably excellent pitchers in the game, all while working in the American League East during the peak of the steroid era.

Now in his sixth year on the ballot, Mussina appears nearly certain of eventual induction. After earning 63.5% of the vote in 2018, he is gaining additional support, and could be elected as soon as this year.

3. Curt Schilling

JAWS: 64.1 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Curt Schilling was born in Anchorage, Alaska. Schilling’s father, a sergeant in the U.S. Army, relocated his family several time during Curt’s youth. As something of a late-bloomer, Schilling went undrafted out of Shadown Mountain High School in Phoenix. He enrolled at Yavapai College, north of Phoenix, and was picked by the Boston Red Sox in the January phase of the 1986 draft. He signed in May and began his pro career that summer.

In July, 1988 the Red Sox packaged Schilling with another future star, outfielder Brady Anderson, in a deal to land veteran pitcher Mike Boddicker from the Baltimore Orioles. Boddicker was instrumental in helping the Red Sox secure the A.L. East title, but Baltimore would win the trade in the long term.

Schilling made his big league debut with Baltimore in 1988, but failed to stick with the club until a successful stint in the bullpen during the second half of 1990. That off season, Schilling was packaged with fellow future All Stars Steve Finley, and Pete Harnisch, in a deal to acquire slugger Glenn Davis from the Houston Astros.

After one mostly unremarkable season working out of the Houston bullpen, the Astros traded Schilling to the Phillies for right-hander Jason Grimsley. Although he would have a solid 15-year career of his own, Grimsley spent the entire 1992 season in the minors before Houston released him the following spring. Curt Schilling would go on to star for the Phillies.

In 1992, Schilling spent his age-25 season split between the bullpen and the starting rotation. By the time the dust had settled, he had worked 226.1 innings at 150 ERA+ with a league-leading 0.99 WHIP. Although he struggled to replicate that dominance over the next three seasons, Schilling did help pitch the Phillies to the 1993 World Series.

For all of his tremendous talent, Schilling struggled to realize his potential. Heading into his age-29 season in 1996, Schilling had 805 big league innings under his belt at 109 ERA+. Unexpectedly, 1996 would be the season that charted a new course for the remaining 12 seasons of his career.

From 1996-1999, Schilling averaged 30 starts, 222 innings, 238 strikeouts, and 137 ERA+. He made his first All Star team during his age-30 season.

Despite having one of the best starters in the league heading up their staff, the Phillies floundered. They rattled off seven straight losing seasons after their N.L. championship in 1993. In 2000, they traded their 33-year-old ace to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In Arizona, Schilling was paired with Randy Johnson to establish one of the most dominant 1-2 punches the game has ever seen.

In 2001, Johnson won the Cy Young, and Schilling finished second. The Diamondbacks won the N.L. West, and cruised into the playoffs ready to roll out their pair of aces. Schilling made six starts during the post season, including three in the World Series. He finished 4-0, allowing just six runs over 48.1 innings to help the Diamondbacks win the World Series in just their fourth season in existence. Schilling was the World Series MVP.

In 2002, Johnson and Schilling headed up the Cy Young balloting for the second straight season. The D’Backs won the division again, but were swept in the first round by the Cardinals.

Schilling was strong again in 2003, but after Arizona failed to make the playoffs, the club decided to go another direction. They agreed to deal Schilling to the Boston Red Sox. There, the 37-year-old ace was expected to form the same kind of dominant playoff duo that had brought a championship to the desert with another Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.

Schilling lived up to his end of the bargain, leading the A.L. with 21 wins, and a 5.80 K/BB ratio. The Red Sox made the playoffs as the Wild Card team. Schilling won three of his four playoff starts. The most famous of which was the legendary “Bloody Sock” Game Six of the ALCS as the Red Sox improbably won their third straight game to even the series with the Yankees. He also beat the Cardinals in Game Two of the World Series, putting a final stamp on his legacy as one of the most important players on the team that ended the Curse of the Bambino.

Schilling’s final season was 2007. At age 40, he made 24 regular season starts– enough to help Boston win the A.L. East title. He then went 3-0 in four playoff starts as the Red Sox won their second World Series in four years.

Hall of Fame?

Curt Schilling’s 20-year career was truly unique. Schilling compiled 79% of his career bWAR after the age of 30. His career arc defied logic making him an unlikely Hall of Fame candidate. He finished with a record of 216-146, 3.46 ERA, and 127 ERA+.

Schilling was a six-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, strikeouts, and WHIP twice each during his career. He finished fourth, or better, in the Cy Young voting four times, including three second-place finishes in a four year stretch from 2001-2004.

JAWS ranks Schilling as the 27th best starter in history, two spots ahead of Mussina. Despite his unique career path, Schilling is 15th all-time in strikeouts (3116). His 4.383 K/BB ratio is fifth best in history.

Now in his 7th year on the ballot, Schilling still has some ground to cover. After finishing with just 51.2% of the vote a year ago, his induction is not a foregone conclusion. His relative lack of support appears to be a combination of his low win total, a crowded ballot, and a series of controversial statements he has made since his retirement.

For whatever holes you might poke in Schilling’s resume, he is clearly a Hall of Famer based on merit alone. His late ascent to dominance should be easily counterbalanced by the extent of that dominance once he achieved it. Beyond that, his postseason resume, which includes World Series appearances with three different franchises, and a central role in winning three championships complete with signature moments, should remove any lingering doubt.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (6-8)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

8. Edgar Martinez

JAWS: 56.0 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)

Edgar Martinez was born in New York. As a child, he moved to Puerto Rico to live with his grandparents. Martinez remained in Puerto Rico through his teenage years and graduated from Dorado High School. In December 1982, at the age of 20, the Seattle Mariners signed him out of a tryout camp in his hometown. Edgar methodically climbed through the Seattle system and made his big league debut in 1987.

Although he debuted in 1987, by the end of 1989, Martinez had just 280 big league plate appearances to his credit. Despite his clear mastery of the Triple-A level, Martinez was stuck. Although the Mariners received virtually no production at third base during those years, it took the team until 1990 (Martinez’s age-27 season) to give him regular at-bats at the big league level.

Once his path to playing time was cleared, Martinez immediately established himself as an excellent offensive player, and credible third baseman. From 1990-1991, he averged 135 OPS+ and 5.8 bWAR. Edgar broke out in 1992, winning his first batting title (.343) and leading the league in doubles (46) en route to his first All Star selection, and a Silver Slugger.

A freak leg injury in a 1993 pre-season exhibition game limited him to just 42 games that season. Martinez was healthier, and more productive, in 1994. Still, he averaged just 116 OPS+ during his shortened age 30-31 seasons.

Heading into 1995, it was fair to wonder if Edgar Martinez’s best days were already behind him. Instead, Martinez ended up being the best offensive player on a resurgent Seattle club that won the A.L. West. He led the league in hitting, OBP, and OPS+ with a .356/.479/.628, 185 OPS+ line. His 121 runs and 52 doubles were also tops in the A.L. Seattle beat the Yankees in the ALDS, but lost in six games to Cleveland in the ALCS.

Rather than suffer a steep decline in his 30s, Martinez proved to be better with age. From 1995-2003, he averaged .321/.438/.558, 159 OPS+, and 5.2 bWAR. Playing almost exclusively as a Designated Hitter, Martinez cemented his legacy as one of the greatest hitters of his generation.

Seattle won the A.L. West again in 1997 and 2001, as well as the 2000 Wild Card, but never made the World Series during Martinez’s career. He retired after the 2004 season.

Hall of Fame?

Edgar Martinez spent his entire 18-year career with the Seattle Mariners. At a time when the team could not hang onto their other stars, Edgar was a consistently excellent, and stable force for their organization. He hit .312/.418/.515, 147 OPS+ for his career. He was a seven-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers, and two batting titles. Edgar received MVP votes five times, peaking at third place in his historic 1995 season.

JAWS treats Edgar Martinez as a third-baseman, ranking him 11th all-time. In reality, Edgar served as Seattle’s DH in 1403 games, and made less than half that number of appearances in the field.

Although other Hall of Famers such as Frank Thomas and Harold Baines spent significant parts of their careers at DH, Martinez has spent the last ten years as the first pure DH to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate. His lack of defensive contributions, combined with his comparatively low counting stats stemming from his late breakthrough in the big leagues have held him back despite his excellent rate numbers.

After receiving 70.4% of the vote in his 9th season a year ago, it appears that Edgar Martinez will be elected by the BBWAA in his 10th, and final, year on the ballot. He would join former Mariners teammates Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson in representing a golden age of Mariners baseball in Cooperstown.

7. Scott Rolen

JAWS: 56.9 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)

Scott Rolen was born and raised in Southern Indiana. After graduating from Jasper High School in 1993, Rolen was a second round draft pick of the Philadelphia Phillies. By the time his first full professional season had concluded, Rolen was already recognized as one of the top prospects in baseball. He was ranked in Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects three straight seasons beginning in 1995.

Rolen made his big league debut in 1996, and became an everyday player in 1997 at the age of 22. He won the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1997, producing 4.5 bWAR and 121 OPS+.

He was better still in 1998. Rolen combined a 139 OPS+ with Gold Glove defense to produce 6.7 bWAR. It was his best season with the Phillies.

In seven seasons with Philadelphia, Rolen hit .282/.373/.504, 126 OPS+, and produced 29.3 bWAR. The Phillies failed to make the postseason during Rolen’s tenure. With their star third baseman heading towards free agency, the club traded Rolen at the 2002 deadline to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Upon arriving in St. Louis, Rolen became a driving force in the Cardinals’ runaway effort to win the N.L. Central. A contract extension kept Rolen in St. Louis for six seasons. He would go on to hit .286/.370/.510, 127 OPS+, and produce 25.9 bWAR. The Cardinals made the playoffs in four of his six seasons, won two National League pennants, and the 2006 World Series.

After 2007, coming off his second down year in three, the Cardinals swapped Rolen for Toronto third baseman Troy Glaus. Rolen rebounded in Toronto, but with the Jays out of contention in 2009, they traded him to the Cincinnati Reds in July.

Rolen spent the final three-plus seasons of his storied career in Cincinnati. Although he had just one star caliber season for the Reds, he did contribute to two N.L. Central titles.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Scott Rolen hit .281/.364/.490, 122 OPS+. He was a consistently excellent defensive player, and finished his career 12th in games played at third base. Rolen was a seven-time All Star who won eight Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes four times, including a fourth place finish in 2004.

Rolen ranks as the 10th best third baseman by JAWS, one spot ahead of Edgar Martinez. Unlike Martinez, Rolen is a full-fledged third baseman, and ultimately the superior overall player. Every eligible third baseman ranked above him is in the Hall of Fame.

After receiving just 10.2% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, Rolen faces an uphill battle in the coming years. The early publicly available returns indicate he should gain some ground this year, but his election is hardly imminent, or certain.

Rolen was a superior overall player to several players who are currently tracking better than him in the voting. Ultimately, I suspect that Scott Rolen will gradually gain support, and eventually earn induction in Cooperstown.

6. Roy Halladay

JAWS: 57.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Halladay was born and raised in the Denver, Colorado area. A 1995 graduate of Arvada West High School, Halladay was selected 17th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays that June. Halladay performed well in the low minors, and was pushed aggressively through the Blue Jays system. He reached Triple-A during his age-20 season, and made his big league debut the following year.

Like the Blue Jays organization, the scouting community agreed that Halladay was a premium prospect. Baseball America ranked him 38th, or better, each season from 1997-1999. In retrospect, it’s easy to see that Halladay may not have been as well prepared for the big leagues as it appeared at first glance. His strikeout/walk numbers in the high minors were unremarkable– a trend that followed him to the big leagues.

After he was battered for 19 games in 2000, Halladay carried a 5.77 ERA through 231 innings. He was sent all the way back to High Class-A in 2001. It was during his return to the minors that Halladay famously overhauled his mechanics and mental approach. By the time he returned to the big leagues in July, he was a completely different pitcher. He finished the season with 105.1 big league innings at 145 ERA+.

In 2002, Halladay proved that his transformation was permanent. He made the All Star team, and led the league with 239.1 innings at 157 ERA+.

In 2003, he upped the ante with 266 innings, also leading the league with 22 wins, nine complete games, and a 6.38 K/BB ratio. He was again an All Star, and won 26 of 28 first place votes for the Cy Young.

After injuries in 2004-2005 limited him to just 274.2 total innings, Halladay resumed his dominance of the American League in 2006. He finished his Blue Jays career with four straight top-five Cy Young finishes, and 930.1 innings at 142 ERA+.

Halladay’s tenure in Toronto came to a crossroads after the 2009 season. Despite his individual brilliance, Halladay had been unable to elevate the Blue Jays to the playoffs at any point in his career. In December, Toronto traded him to the defending champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Halladay was brilliant in his initiation to the National League in 2010. He led the league with 21 wins, 250.2 innings, and 1.1 BB/9. The Phillies won their fourth straight N.L. East title. Halladay threw a no-hitter in the NLDS opener against the Reds, but the Phillies fell to the Giants in the NLCS. After the season, Halladay won the Cy Young, making him just the fifth player to have won the award in both leagues at the time.

He was similarly excellent in 2011, pacing the N.L. in ERA+ (163) and FIP (2.20). The Phillies won the division again before losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Hallday finished second in the Cy Young race.

Injuries took their toll on Halladay after 2011. In his last two seasons, he struggled to remain on the mound, and was mostly ineffective when he did. He retired after his age-36 season.

Hall of Fame?

In his 16-year career, Roy Halladay established himself as one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. He finished with a record of 203-105 and 131 ERA+. He was even more superb in the 11 seasons in the middle of his career. From 2001-2011, he was 175-78 with a 148 ERA+.

Halladay was an eight-time All Star. He led the league in wins twice, and innings four times during his career. In addition to his two Cy Youngs, he finished fifth, or better, another five times in his career including two second-place finishes.

JAWS ranks Halladay as the 43rd best starting pitcher in history. The system is structured to reward peak level dominance, which is essential to Halladay’s case. What he lacks in longevity, and counting stats, he makes up for with his marvelous 11-year peak.

Roy Halladay died tragically in a plane crash on November 7, 2017 at the age of 40.

I have previously mentioned that I prefer to give considerable weight to peak level brilliance when evaluating Hall of Fame candidates. Roy Halladay is a poster boy for the reasons why. Anyone who watched him pitch during his peak knew they were witnessing a Hall of Fame career. Even if he doesn’t check all of the boxes for counting stats, there is little doubt he was one of the best pitchers of his era.

Roy Halladay appears poised to be elected to the Hall of Fame this winter, on the first ballot.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (9-10)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 11-15 by JAWS.

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

10. Andruw Jones

JAWS: 54.7 (57.7 Average HOF CF)

Andruw Jones was born and raised in Willemstad, Curacao. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in July, 1993. Once he reached the U.S., Jones quickly stood out among his peers. Baseball America ranked him as their top prospect prior to the 1996 season.

Just 19 in 1996, Jones advanced through three levels of the minor leagues, slugging 34 homers and stealing 30 bases in just 116 games. He made his big league debut in August, and quickly earned regular playing time. Jones became an international sensation when he hit .400/.500/.750 with two homers as a teenager in the Braves 1996 World Series loss to the Yankees.

Jones quickly established himself as one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. He won 10 straight Gold Gloves as a member of the Braves, helping to anchor the defense behind one of the greatest starting rotations in history.

His offense steadily improved as well. In 12 seasons with the Braves, Jones hit .263/.342/.497, 113 OPS+. In 2005 he finished second in the MVP voting when he led the league with 51 homers and 128 RBI in addition to his excellent defense.

The Braves won the N.L. East every season from 1996-2005. They won the pennant in 1996 and 1999. Jones was a critical piece of their sustained success.

After appearing in the postseason every year since 1991, the Braves finished third in 2006-2007. In 2007, Jones produced just 87 OPS+ in his age 30 season and the Braves elected to let him walk away as a free agent.

Jones signed with the Dodgers for 2008, but struggled to remain healthy and effective. He was released that winter and signed with the Rangers. Jones spent 2009-2012 in the American League. He played single seasons in Texas, Chicago, and the final two years of his career with the Yankees where he contributed to back-to-back A.L. East titles.

Jones starred for two seasons with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japanese Pacific League where he hit 50 homers in 2013-2014, but never returned to the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Andruw Jones hit .254/.337/.486, 111 OPS+. A solid hitter, Jones produced nearly as much value in the field and on the bases. He was a five-time All Star who won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes five times.

Jones ranks as the 11th best center fielder by JAWS. Although he is just shy of the average mark for the position, that number is boosted by the exceptional careers of several all-time greats. Jones ranks better than 12 of the 19 Hall of Fame center fielders.

There is a strange dynamic at play regarding the candidacy of Jones. For the first 11 years of his career, there was little doubt that Jones was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. An excellent defensive player who blossomed into an elite hitter, Jones had the benefit of breaking into the big leagues younger than most, and figured to rack up massive counting stats into his 30s.

Then the last part failed to materialize. Over the last six years of his career, Jones was an entirely different player. His athleticism declined with startling rapidity sapping his defensive value to the point where he abandoned center field altogether, and spent significant time at DH during his A.L. years. He produced just 92 OPS+ and 4.7 bWAR from age 30-35 before washing out of the big leagues for good.

Jones was named on just 7.3% of the ballots during his first year of eligibility. He is teetering on the brink of falling off the ballot entirely this year. The voters appear to be aggressively penalizing him for his rapid decline, rather than properly rewarding his magnificent peak.

For me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer. If forced to choose, I prefer shorter stretches of brilliance over long-term statistical compilers. Both have their place in Cooperstown, and Andruw Jones certainly fits into the former category.

9. Manny Ramirez

JAWS: 54.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Manny Ramirez was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. He moved to the U.S. as a teenager, and graduated from George Washington High School in Manhattan. The Cleveland Indians drafted him 13th overall in June, 1991. A supremely talented hitter, Ramirez immediately put himself on the prospect map. After shredding the high minors in 1993, he earned a big league trial. Baseball America ranked him as their #7 prospect entering 1994.

The Cleveland Indians were on the verge of becoming one of the most successful teams of the late-90s when Ramirez burst onto the scene. They were one game out of first when the strike began in 1994. Cleveland would go on to win five straight A.L. Central titles as Ramirez established himself as one of the best hitters in the game.

During his eight seasons in Cleveland, Ramirez hit .313/.407/.592, 152 OPS+. He led the league with 165 RBI in 1999 and paced the junior circuit in slugging and OPS in 1999-2000.

Manny hit free agency after the 2000 season. He was entering his age-29 season coming off three straight top-six MVP finishes. In a move that would alter the course of two franchises, Ramirez signed with the Boston Red Sox.

In Boston, Manny was exactly as advertised. He remained of the most feared right-handed hitters in the game for eight seasons with the Red Sox. His career line in Boston was a virtual carbon copy of that in Cleveland at .312/.411/.588, 155 OPS+. He won the batting title in 2002 (.349), led the league in slugging in 2004 (.613), and had the highest OBP in the league three times as a member of the Red Sox.

Manny would end up as a central piece of Boston’s turnaround after the turn of the century. Boston won the Wild Card three straight years beginning in 2003. Their improbable ALCS comeback against the Yankees in 2004 paved the way for the franchise’s first World Series championship since 1918. Manny was the World Series MVP in the sweep of the Cardinals. When they won again in 2007, Manny was still hitting in the middle of the Boston order.

By 2008, Ramirez’s declining defensive value, and generally erratic behavior, had worn thin in Boston. It became clear that the Red Sox would not sign him to a contract extension after the season. Although he was still a productive hitter, and they were in the middle of a playoff race, the Red Sox traded Ramirez to the Dodgers at the deadline.

Ramirez dominated the stretch run in Los Angeles, helping the Dodgers to the N.L. West title. He signed a contract extension in L.A. and helped the Dodgers repeat as division champs the next year, although he was suspended 50 games for PED use.

When the Dodgers faded in 2010, they let Manny pass to the White Sox via waivers late in August. He played his final big league game for Tampa in April, 2011. Although he bounced around the Triple-A Pacific Coast League for three different teams from 2012-2014, he would never return to the Majors.

Hall of Fame?

In his incredible 19-year career, Manny Ramirez hit .312/.411/.585, 154 OPS+. His 555 career homers rank 15th all-time. Manny was a 12-time All Star who won nine Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes 11 times including eight straight top-nine finishes.

Manny ranks as the 10th best left fielder in history by JAWS. He is just above the average, and ranks better than 13 of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position.

Like half-a-dozen players on the current ballot, Ramirez’s candidacy has been torpedoed by steroid use. Ramirez tested positive three different times during his career leaving a permanent black eye on his resume.

Although his credentials place him at a level above Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa, the voters have clearly shown that they view Manny closer to that group than to Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Now in his third year of eligibility, Manny clearly needs a shift in the voters’ attitudes toward the steroid era to have any chance of enshrinement in Cooperstown.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (11-15)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

15. Lance Berkman

JAWS: 45.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Lance Berkman was born and raised in the Texas Triangle. A graduate of Canyon High School in New Braunfels, TX northeast of San Antonio, Berkman played his college ball in Houston at Rice University. The Houston Astros selected Berkman 16th overall in the 1997 draft. A Baseball America Top-100 Prospect from 1998-2000, Berkman advanced quickly through Houston’s minor league system. He made his big league debut in July, 1999.

A switch-hitter with power and patience, Berkman quickly established himself as one of the top hitters in the National League. In 12 seasons with the Astros, Berkman hit .296/.410/.594, 146 OPS+. He led the league in doubles in 2001 (55) and 2008 (46) and RBI in 2002 (128).

Berkman contributed to four Astros playoff teams including the 2005 National League Champions. He was the best player by bWAR on the 2001 N.L. Central Champions, and the 2004 N.L. Wild Card winner.

With the team struggling in 2010, the Astros traded Berkman to the Yankees at the trade deadline. Serving primarily as a DH, Berkman helped New York secure the Wild Card spot.

Berkman signed with the St. Louis Cardinals heading into 2011. It would turn out to be one of the best offensive seasons of his career. The 2011 Cardinals turned a Wild Card berth into the 12th World Series championship in franchise history. Berkman was a driving force in their victory over the Texas Rangers, hitting .423/.516/.577 with nine runs and five RBI in the seven-game series.

The Cardinals won the Wild Card again in 2012, but Berkman played just 32 games as injuries took their toll. He finished his career with the Texas Rangers in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Lance Berkman was a marvelous all around player during his 15-year career. With a career line of .293/.406/.537, 144 OPS+, Berkman was clearly one of the most dominant hitters of his era. He was also a versatile defensive player who played at least 166 games at all three outfield spots as well as first base during his career.

He was a six-time All Star who received MVP votes in seven seasons including third-place finishes in 2002 and 2006.

In his first year on the ballot, it is unclear how the voters will treat Berkman. He spent much of his career surrounded by fellow Hall of Fame caliber talents. As a result, it is possible that he was underappreciated during his career.

Berkman ranks as the 20th best left fielder by JAWS. His career 144 OPS+ puts him well above the average for Hall of Fame left fielders. Minimal defensive value, and a comparatively short career, are probably enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.

On a loaded ballot, it’s possible Berkman fails to achieve the 5% needed to remain eligible beyond this year. He probably deserves better than that, but either way, it’s hard to see him standing out among the other stellar hitters on the ballot at this time.

14. Andy Pettitte

JAWS: 47.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Andy Pettitte was a 1990 graduate of Deer Park High School in Texas. The New York Yankees selected him as a draft-and-follow candidate in the 22nd round that June. Pettitte enrolled in San Jacinto College in Houston and showed enough in the spring of 1991 that the Yankees signed him that May. Pettitte climbed methodically through the Yankees system.

By 1995, Pettitte was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He made his debut that season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting, and helping New York to the Wild Card.

The Yankees made the playoffs every season from 1995-2003. With Pettitte providing a steady presence in their rotation, New York won the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000. Pettite finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young four times during this period.

After a tough loss to the Marlins in the 2003 World Series, Pettitte became a free agent. Entering his age-32 season, Pettitte returned home to pitch for the Houston Astros. From 2004-2006 with the Astros, Pettitte was one of the best pitchers in the National League. He helped the team to Wild Card berths in 2004-2005, and the National League pennant in 2005.

After the 2006 season, Pettitte returned to the Yankees. He spent most of the next seven years pitching for the Yankees, although he sat out the 2011 season entirely. Pettitte pitched for four more Yankees playoff teams during this stretch, and won his fifth World Series in 2009.

Hall of Fame?

Andy Pettitte finished his 18-year career with a record of 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, and 3.74 FIP. He was a three-time All Star who finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting five times.

In his first year on the ballot, Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy is probably the dividing mark for the members of the storied Yankees dynasty of that era. While Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are no doubt first-ballot Hall of Famers, the team’s success did little for the candidacies of Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, both of whom have already fallen off the ballot.

Pettitte is pretty clearly in the middle of those five. He will surely show better than Posada or Williams, but won’t achieve the same type of perhaps unanimous support as Jeter or Rivera.

Pettitte falls considerably short of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher. He is probably one of the top-100 starters in history, but that hardly ensures enshrinement in Cooperstown.

My gut feeling is that history will struggle with how to properly view Pettitte’s career. At different times, he was both one of the best pitchers in the game, and highly overrated. There is little doubt that if he had played for another organization, his resume would fall short as his win-loss record and postseason exploits are pillars of his case. At the same time, how many of the five Yankees championships he helped secure would have been won without him?

Of course, we have not even mentioned Pettitte’s admitted use of Human Growth Hormone in the middle of his career. For a player whose case is fringy to begin with, his PED use is probably too much to overcome in the current climate. If he can hang around on the ballot for a full ten-year stretch, it is possible that changing views on both PED’s, and the modern starting pitcher, could help his chances in the long run. For now, it’s hard to imagine him getting in any time soon.

13. Gary Sheffield

JAWS: 49.3 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Gary Sheffield was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1986 graduate of Hillsborough High School, Sheffield was drafted sixth overall by the Milwaukee Brewers. Originally a shortstop, Sheffield proved to be a highly advanced offensive player in his ascension through the Brewers system. He made his big league debut late in 1988 at just 19.

The club shifted him to third base, in the big leagues, and outside of a three-win season in 1990, Sheffield struggled through most of his time with the Brewers. By the end of the 1991 season, his career OPS+ was 95 while averaging just 90 games in his three full seasons.

In Spring Training, 1992 the Brewers traded Sheffield to the San Diego Padres. With a clean start in a new organization, Sheffield thrived. He won the N.L. batting title in 1992 with a line of .330/.385/.580, 168 OPS+. In 1993, the Padres struggled, Sheffield slowed, and the All Star third baseman was traded to the Florida Marlins for a package including future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman.

Sheffield spent more time with the Marlins that anywhere else in his career. The Marlins moved him to the outfield where he would remain for the rest of his career. From 1993-1998, he hit .288/.426/.543, 156 OPS+ and produced 13.2 bWAR. He led the N.L. in OBP (.465) and OPS+ (189) in 1996.

An expansion team in 1993, the Marlins struggled to find their footing until 1997. That year they won 92 games and the N.L. Wild Card en route to the World Series. As the team’s best hitter in the regular season as well as the playoffs, no one played a larger role in Florida’s first World Series championship than Gary Sheffield.

Marlins ownership infamously tore down their championship core heading into 1998. Sheffield was traded to the Dodgers as part of a massive package that temporarily resulted in Mike Piazza joining the Marlins.

From 1998-2001 in Los Angeles, Sheffield remained one of the best hitters in baseball. He posted a .312/.424/.573, 160 OPS+ line producing 17.0 bWAR. The Dodgers never made the postseason during Sheffield’s tenure and traded him to the Braves before the 2002 season.

Sheffield posted 151 OPS+ over his two seasons in Atlanta. The 2002-2003 Braves had nearly identical seasons winning 101 games, the N.L. East title, and ultimately losing in the first round of the playoffs.

A free agent after the 2003 season, Sheffield signed with the New York Yankees. From 2004-2006 he produced 135 OPS+ and was part of three straight A.L. East championships.

After he was derailed by injuries in 2006, the Yankees traded him to the Detroit Tigers. Primarily a DH during his two seasons in Detroit, Sheffield was still an above-average hitter, but had slowed considerably. The Tigers released him prior to the 2009 season as the slugger sat with 499 career homers.

Sheffield quickly signed with the New York Mets. He played 100 games in the final season of his career, hitting 10 homers to give him a career total of 509.

Hall of Fame?

In his remarkable 22-year career, Gary Sheffield hit .292/.393/.514, 140 OPS+. His 509 career home runs rank 26th all-time. Sheffield was a nine-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes seven times including three seasons in which he finished second or third (1992, 2003, 2004).

Sheffield ranks as the 23rd best right fielder in history by JAWS. Although he ranks above 11 Hall of Famers at the position, he stands little chance of induction at this time.

In 2004, Sheffield admitted to steroid use as part of the BALCO investigation. Players with better statistical resumes who have been linked to steroid use have failed to secure the support necessary for election. Like Pettitte, this reality is probably too much for Sheffield to overcome.

Now in his fifth year of eligibility, Sheffield has some time for the ballot, and sentiment, to shift in his favor. After securing just 11% of the vote in 2018, he may have too far to go in too short a time.

12. Sammy Sosa

JAWS: 51.2 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Sammy Sosa was born and raised in San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Texas Rangers in July, 1985. As a young player, Sosa was wiry strong and explosive, but raw. His tantalizing physical tools allowed him to climb through the Rangers system. Despite the obvious flaws in his game, notably a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, Sosa made his big league debut with Texas at 20.

That same season, the Rangers used Sosa as part of a package to land White Sox Franchise Phenom Harold Baines at the trade deadline. Sosa continued to flash his physical talent with the White Sox, but failed to make significant progress in refining his game. Sosa was essentially a replacement-level player during his time with the White Sox.

Prior to the 1992 season, the Sox made a decision that would alter the fate of both Chicago franchises. They traded Sammy Sosa to the Cubs as the headline piece for All Star outfielder George Bell. At 32, Bell had just two seasons left in the big leagues while the 23-year-old Sosa would go on to become one of the best players in Cubs history.

Sosa steadily improved during his early years with the Cubs, settling in as an above-average hitter by 1993. In 1995, Sosa began a streak of nine straight seasons in which he would received MVP votes. He was a 30/30 player in both 1993 and 1995. He hit 40 homers for the first time in 1996.

Everything changed for Sammy Sosa, and Major League Baseball, in 1998. During that famed summer, Sosa and Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire embarked on their epic chase of Roger Maris‘s single-season home run record. McGwire finished with 70 to set the new record, but Sosa also broke the old record with 66 of his own. Sosa led the league in runs (134) and RBI (158). The Cubs won the N.L. Wild Card, and Sosa the MVP.

Sosa remained one of the most feared sluggers in baseball for years. He hit 63 homers in 1999, and 64 in 2001, making him the only player in history with three 60-homer seasons. When the Cubs won the N.L. Central in 2003, Sosa was still their best hitter.

In 13 seasons with the Cubs, Sosa hit .284/.358/.569, 139 OPS+, and 545 homers.

His final years in Chicago were marred by a suspension for corking his bat, increased suspicion about steroid usage, and alienation of the organization he had carried for a decade.

Sosa was traded to Baltimore before the 2006 season. He sat out 2007. He then returned to hit 21 homers for the Rangers in 2008 allowing him to eclipse the 600 mark for his career.

Hall of Fame?

In his 18-year career, Sammy Sosa hit .273/.344/.534, 128 OPS+. His 609 career homers rank ninth all-time. Sosa was a seven-time All Star who won six Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes nine times. He finished second in 2001, and won the award during his incredible 1998 season.

Sosa ranks as the 18th best right fielder by JAWS, five spots ahead of Sheffield, and above two more Hall of Famers. Despite his on-paper advantages, he has actually fared worse than Sheffield up to this point in the process.

Even more so than Sheffield, Sosa is a poster boy for the steroid era. Despite suspicions that engulfed the late stages of his career, and a June, 2009 New York Times report claiming he tested positive in 2003, Sosa has remained evasive on the subject in retirement. The issue remains the cause of friction with Cubs ownership to this day.

Now in his seventh year on the ballot, Sosa has even less time for things to swing in his favor than Sheffield. He earned just 7.8% of the vote in 2018.

11. Todd Helton

JAWS: 53.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Todd Helton was the 8th overall pick by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Tennessee in the 1995 draft.

He played his entire 17-year career with the Rockies. His career line of .316/.414/.539, 133 OPS+, and 61.2 bWAR makes him the best player in franchise history.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Todd Helton’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

Todd Helton was a five-time All Star who won four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.

Helton has a strong case for enshrinement in Cooperstown. By JAWS, Helton ranks as the 15th best first baseman in history. While that places him just below the lofty average mark for the position, he is surrounded by Hall of Famers on the list.

2019 is Helton’s first year on the ballot. Now in his ninth year on the ballot, Larry Walker’s results provide a potential guide for the way Helton’s candidacy may be viewed. Although modern metrics strip away ballpark context, baseball writers have long struggled to separate the Coors Field effect when evaluating Rockies players for awards. Hitters are often over-penalized and pitchers under-rewarded.

Walker is running out of time in his bid to be elected by the writers, but Helton figures to benefit in the long run as the writers grapple with Walker’s candidacy. At some point, these two players will force BBWAA members to determine what, exactly, a Rockies hitter would have to do to earn their vote. How preposterous do the numbers have to be?

In my world, both Helton and Walker are Hall of Fame players. I am cautiously optimistic that they will each be recognized as such at some point in the future.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (16-20)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the first piece in the series. Players 21-25 by JAWS.

20. Miguel Tejada

JAWS: 41.9 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Miguel Tejada was born and raised in Bani, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Oakland Athletics in July, 1993. Tejada came stateside in 1995 and quickly established himself as a well-rounded shortstop prospect in his age-21 season. He was a Baseball America Top-100 prospect for three straight seasons, including back-to-back top-10 rankings in 1997 and 1998.

In seven seasons with Oakland, Tejada hit .270/.331/.460 for 107 OPS+. From 1998-2003, he averaged 3.7 bWAR. In 2002, he won the American League MVP on the strength of a .308/.354/.508, 128 OPS+ line with 34 homers and 131 RBI.

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series. With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. After the 2003 season, the A’s allowed Tejada to depart via free agency to the Baltimore Orioles.

Tejada’s stretch in Baltimore from 2004-2007 was the best of his career. He averaged .311/.362/.501, 124 OPS+, and 5.0 bWAR. He made the All Star team three times, and won two Silver Sluggers. The Orioles had a losing record each season. They dealt Tejada to Houston after the 2007 season.

Tejada made the All Star team both seasons in Houston, but his production began to slip. He averaged 101 OPS+ and 1.9 bWAR.

From 2010-2011, Tejada bounced around from Baltimore to San Diego, and San Francisco. After missing the 2012 season, Tejada returned for 53 games with Kansas City in 2013, his final stint in the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

Miguel Tejada was one of the top shortstops in baseball during an era of great shortstops. Tejada was a six-time All Star who won two Silver Sluggers, and the 2002 A.L. MVP.

JAWS ranks him as the top shortstop on the 2019 Ballot in his first year of eligibility. His well-rounded skill set, and incredible durability (he played 162 games every season from 2001-2006), helped him accumulate more career bWAR than Omar Vizquel in 797 fewer games.

Ultimately, Tejada’s statistical case leaves him shy of the Hall of Fame standard at the position. When combined with the cloud of PED evidence surrounding his career, Tejada stands little chance of induction. It is entirely possible that he falls off the ballot after this year.

19. Mariano Rivera

JAWS: 42.5 (32.3 Average HOF RP)

Mariano Rivera was signed as an amateur free agent out of Panama by the New York Yankees in 1990. Rivera excelled during his minor league career in the Yankees system while splitting time between starting and relieving. Rivera made his big league debut at the age of 25 in 1995. Although he started 10 games during his rookie year, Rivera’s destiny was in the bullpen.

Beginning in 1996, Rivera embarked on an incredibly dominant career as a reliever. For the next 18 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera was consistently among the best relievers in the game. His utter dominance in the late innings was a key element of the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The Yankees made the playoffs 13 straight seasons from 1995-2007 and 17 times in Rivera’s 19 seasons with the club. Rivera was a key piece of five World Series championships (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009).

His legacy in the postseason leaves no doubt about Rivera’s place in baseball history. In 141 career playoff innings across 96 games, Rivera was 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.70 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP. Simply put, if the Yankees handed Mariano Rivera a lead in October, the game was over.

Mariano Rivera finished his career with a record of 82-60, 652 saves, a 2.21 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 205 ERA+ over 1283.2 innings.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons with the New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera carved out his legacy as the greatest closer in baseball history.

Rivera was a 13-time All Star, five-time Rolaids Reliever of the Year, and five-time World Champion. He was the ALCS MVP against Boston in 2003, and the World Series MVP against Atlanta in 1999.

He is baseball’s all-time leader in saves (652) and ERA+ (205).

Rivera ranks second all-time in JAWS among relievers, trailing only Dennis Eckersley whose 12 seasons and 361 games as a starting pitcher hardly makes for an apples to apples comparison.

Rivera appears to be a slam dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer. The only real question seems to be whether or not he will make history one more time as the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

18. Fred McGriff

JAWS: 44.3 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Fred McGriff was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1981 graduate of Jefferson High School, McGriff was selected in the 9th round by the New York Yankees. After the 1982 season, the 19-year-old McGriff was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. McGriff had a cup of coffee with Toronto in 1986, and was in the majors for good in 1987.

From 1987-1990, McGriff averaged .278/.390/.531, 154 OPS+, and 4.8 bWAR. He led the league in homers (36) and OPS+ (165) en route to a Silver Slugger award in 1989.

In one of the most fascinating trades in baseball history, the Blue Jays shipped McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter in December, 1990. The deal worked out famously for the Blue Jays while McGriff and Fernandez both had All Star seasons in San Diego.

In parts of three seasons with the Padres, McGriff averaged .281/.388/.519 and 149 OPS+. He led the National League with 35 homers in 1992, earning All Star and Silver Slugger honors in the process.

With the Padres in the midst of a brutal 1993 season, McGriff was traded to the Atlanta Braves in July. He remained with Atlanta through 1997, helping to propel the Braves to four division championships, and the 1995 World Series championship. In parts of five seasons in Atlanta, McGriff hit .293/.369/.516 and 128 OPS+. He was a three-time All Star for the Braves.

Following the 1997 season, the Braves sold McGriff to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays who were heading into their inaugural season as an expansion franchise. Now in his mid-30s, McGriff remained an above-average, and sometimes excellent, hitter in his home town. He made his fifth, and final, All Star team in 2000.

At the 2001 trade deadline, Tampa dealt McGriff to the Chicago Cubs. He remained in Chicago through the 2002 season. McGriff spent 2003 with the Dodgers, and wrapped up his career back in Tampa for 27 games in 2004.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons, Fred McGriff hit .284/.377/.509, good for 134 OPS+. His 493 career homers fall just shy of the magical 500 threshold. A five-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger, McGriff was one of the most feared sluggers of his era.

Unfortunately for McGriff, much of his career was played during the peak of baseball’s steroid era. While McGriff has never been seriously linked to PED use, it is difficult to find proper context for his numbers. As a result of the high offensive bar at the position, he ranks 31st among first basemen by JAWS. More than a third of the players who rank above him are from the same generation.

2019 represents McGriff’s 10th, and final, season on the ballot. After earning just 23.2% of the vote in 2018, McGriff seems all but certain to fall short of the required 75% this year. It is fair to wonder whether he might fair better with the Today’s Game Committee in the future.

17. Roy Oswalt

JAWS: 45.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Oswalt was born and raised in Central Mississippi. A graduate of Weir High School, Oswalt played his college ball at Holmes Community College in Ridgeland, MS. The Houston Astros selected him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft out of Holmes.

Despite his small frame, Oswalt used electric stuff to post solid strikeout numbers across the Houston farm system. When he made a quantum leap with his control during the 2000 season, he jumped to #13 on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects. He made his big league debut in 2001.

Oswalt made an immediate impact in Houston working to a 170 ERA+ and fifth place Cy Young finish during his rookie season to help the Astros win the N.L. Central. He helped Houston back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2004 and 2005. In 2005, the Astros won the National League pennant as Oswalt combined with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to form the most dominant starting rotation in franchise history.

In 10 seasons with the Astros, Oswalt went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA, 133 ERA+, and 3.35 FIP. He finished in the top-five in the Cy Young voting five times, and made three All Star teams.

With Houston out of contention in 2010, they traded Oswalt to the Phillies. Oswalt helped pitch the Phillies to consecutive A.L. East titles in 2010-2011.

He signed with the Texas Rangers in May, 2012 and helped them into the Wild Card Game. He finished his career with nine games for the Rockies in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

For much of Roy Oswalt’s 13-year career, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished with a career record of 163-102, 3.36 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 3.37 FIP. He is the greatest pitcher in Astros franchise history.

In his first year on the ballot, it is not entirely clear what kind of support we can expect for Oswalt. I suspect that, ultimately, he was neither durable nor dominant enough to make up for his shortcomings in the other category. Two more years of his top level, or three to four more at his career average, would have made his case considerably more intriguing.

I think it’s possible that Oswalt can hang around on the ballot beyond this year. That’s hardly a certainty given the loaded field he is competing with for the voters’ attention.

16. Jeff Kent

JAWS: 45.6 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Jeff Kent was born and raised in Southern California. After graduating from Edison High School in Huntington Beach, he headed north to play his college ball at the University of California, Berkeley. The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Kent in the 20th round in 1989.

Although his defense was regarded with some skepticism by scouts, Kent proved himself to be a polished offensive player in a quick ascent through the Toronto system. He made his big league debut in 1992. After proving himself capable of producing at the big league level, Kent was used as the headliner in an August trade with the Mets that brought David Cone to Toronto. Cone helped pitch Toronto to a World Series title that same season.

In parts of five seasons with the Mets from 1992-1996, Kent averaged 107 OPS+ while playing passable defense at second and third. At the 1996 trade deadline, the Mets used Kent as the key piece in a deal to land All Star second baseman Carlos Baerga from the Indians.

Although the Indians won the A.L. Central in 1996, Kent made minimal impact down the stretch, or in the playoffs. In November, he was traded from Cleveland to San Francisco as part of a package for All Star third baseman Matt Williams.

Entering his age-29 season in 1997, Kent was at a crossroads. He had already been traded three times, each time as the headline piece that landed his former club an All Star in return.

In San Francisco, Kent finally found himself. Paired with Barry Bonds, he began his Giants career with consecutive top-10 MVP finishes in 1997-1998. In 1999 he began a string of three straight All Star selections. In 2000, Kent won the National League MVP with a line of .334/.424/.596, 162 OPS+, and 7.2 bWAR.

With Bonds and Kent, the Giants were in contention every season. They won the N.L. West in 1997 and 2000. They parlayed a 2002 Wild Card berth into the National League pennant. In six seasons with the Giants, Kent averaged 136 OPS+ and 5.2 bWAR. He was a three-time All Star, and won three Silver Sluggers.

After the 2002 season, Kent signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros. He remained a solid hitter, producing 121 OPS+ in two seasons. He helped Houston reach the 2004 NLCS. Kent was an All Star in 2004.

Once again a free agent after 2004, Kent signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. From 2005-2008, he averaged 119 OPS+ and 1.7 bWAR as age sapped his defensive value. He was an All Star for the final time in 2005. He helped the Dodgers to a Wild Card berth in 2006, and the N.L. West title in 2008.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Jeff Kent established a legacy as one of the best offensive second basemen in history. Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and the 2000 N.L. MVP.

Kent is now in his sixth year on the ballot. He appears to be hanging by a thread after receiving just 14.5% of the vote last year.

Although he falls short of the JAWS average for second basemen, he ranks higher than eight of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position. Offensively, he is even better. His 123 OPS+ is better than 13 of the 20. He is the all-time leader in home runs by a second baseman.

Despite his offensive prowess, Kent’s defensive track record costs him both in terms of career value produced, and in the minds of the voters. His offensive chops are such that it’s not impossible to imagine him experiencing a late surge, but it seems unlikely.