2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (6-8)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:  

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

8.  Edgar Martinez

JAWS:  56.0 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)

Edgar Martinez was born in New York. As a child, he moved to Puerto Rico to live with his grandparents. Martinez remained in Puerto Rico through his teenage years and graduated from Dorado High School. In December 1982, at the age of 20, the Seattle Mariners signed him out of a tryout camp in his hometown. Edgar methodically climbed through the Seattle system and made his big league debut in 1987.

Although he debuted in 1987, by the end of 1989, Martinez had just 280 big league plate appearances to his credit. Despite his clear mastery of the Triple-A level, Martinez was stuck. Although the Mariners received virtually no production at third base during those years, it took the team until 1990 (Martinez’s age-27 season) to give him regular at-bats at the big league level.

Once his path to playing time was cleared, Martinez immediately established himself as an excellent offensive player, and credible third baseman. From 1990-1991, he averged 135 OPS+ and 5.8 bWAR. Edgar broke out in 1992, winning his first batting title (.343) and leading the league in doubles (46) en route to his first All Star selection, and a Silver Slugger.

A freak leg injury in a 1993 pre-season exhibition game limited him to just 42 games that season. Martinez was healthier, and more productive, in 1994. Still, he averaged just 116 OPS+ during his shortened age 30-31 seasons.

Heading into 1995, it was fair to wonder if Edgar Martinez’s best days were already behind him. Instead, Martinez ended up being the best offensive player on a resurgent Seattle club that won the A.L. West. He led the league in hitting, OBP, and OPS+ with a .356/.479/.628, 185 OPS+ line. His 121 runs and 52 doubles were also tops in the A.L. Seattle beat the Yankees in the ALDS, but lost in six games to Cleveland in the ALCS.

Rather than suffer a steep decline in his 30s, Martinez proved to be better with age. From 1995-2003, he averaged .321/.438/.558, 159 OPS+, and 5.2 bWAR. Playing almost exclusively as a Designated Hitter, Martinez cemented his legacy as one of the greatest hitters of his generation.

Seattle won the A.L. West again in 1997 and 2001, as well as the 2000 Wild Card, but never made the World Series during Martinez’s career. He retired after the 2004 season.

Hall of Fame?

Edgar Martinez spent his entire 18-year career with the Seattle Mariners. At a time when the team could not hang onto their other stars, Edgar was a consistently excellent, and stable force for their organization. He hit .312/.418/.515, 147 OPS+ for his career. He was a seven-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers, and two batting titles. Edgar received MVP votes five times, peaking at third place in his historic 1995 season.

JAWS treats Edgar Martinez as a third-baseman, ranking him 11th all-time. In reality, Edgar served as Seattle’s DH in 1403 games, and made less than half that number of appearances in the field.

Although other Hall of Famers such as Frank Thomas and Harold Baines spent significant parts of their careers at DH, Martinez has spent the last ten years as the first pure DH to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate. His lack of defensive contributions, combined with his comparatively low counting stats stemming from his late breakthrough in the big leagues have held him back despite his excellent rate numbers.

After receiving 70.4% of the vote in his 9th season a year ago, it appears that Edgar Martinez will be elected by the BBWAA in his 10th, and final, year on the ballot. He would join former Mariners teammates Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson in representing a golden age of Mariners baseball in Cooperstown.

7.  Scott Rolen

JAWS:  56.9 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)

Scott Rolen was born and raised in Southern Indiana. After graduating from Jasper High School in 1993, Rolen was a second round draft pick of the Philadelphia Phillies. By the time his first full professional season had concluded, Rolen was already recognized as one of the top prospects in baseball. He was ranked in Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects three straight seasons beginning in 1995.

Rolen made his big league debut in 1996, and became an everyday player in 1997 at the age of 22. He won the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1997, producing 4.5 bWAR and 121 OPS+.

He was better still in 1998. Rolen combined a 139 OPS+ with Gold Glove defense to produce 6.7 bWAR. It was his best season with the Phillies.

In seven seasons with Philadelphia, Rolen hit .282/.373/.504, 126 OPS+, and produced 29.3 bWAR. The Phillies failed to make the postseason during Rolen’s tenure. With their star third baseman heading towards free agency, the club traded Rolen at the 2002 deadline to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Upon arriving in St. Louis, Rolen became a driving force in the Cardinals’ runaway effort to win the N.L. Central. A contract extension kept Rolen in St. Louis for six seasons. He would go on to hit .286/.370/.510, 127 OPS+, and produce 25.9 bWAR. The Cardinals made the playoffs in four of his six seasons, won two National League pennants, and the 2006 World Series.

After 2007, coming off his second down year in three, the Cardinals swapped Rolen for Toronto third baseman Troy Glaus. Rolen rebounded in Toronto, but with the Jays out of contention in 2009, they traded him to the Cincinnati Reds in July.

Rolen spent the final three-plus seasons of his storied career in Cincinnati. Although he had just one star caliber season for the Reds, he did contribute to two N.L. Central titles.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Scott Rolen hit .281/.364/.490, 122 OPS+. He was a consistently excellent defensive player, and finished his career 12th in games played at third base. Rolen was a seven-time All Star who won eight Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes four times, including a fourth place finish in 2004.

Rolen ranks as the 10th best third baseman by JAWS, one spot ahead of Edgar Martinez. Unlike Martinez, Rolen is a full-fledged third baseman, and ultimately the superior overall player. Every eligible third baseman ranked above him is in the Hall of Fame.

After receiving just 10.2% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, Rolen faces an uphill battle in the coming years. The early publicly available returns indicate he should gain some ground this year, but his election is hardly imminent, or certain.

Rolen was a superior overall player to several players who are currently tracking better than him in the voting. Ultimately, I suspect that Scott Rolen will gradually gain support, and eventually earn induction in Cooperstown.

6.  Roy Halladay

JAWS:  57.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Halladay was born and raised in the Denver, Colorado area. A 1995 graduate of Arvada West High School, Halladay was selected 17th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays that June. Halladay performed well in the low minors, and was pushed aggressively through the Blue Jays system. He reached Triple-A during his age-20 season, and made his big league debut the following year.

Like the Blue Jays organization, the scouting community agreed that Halladay was a premium prospect. Baseball America ranked him 38th, or better, each season from 1997-1999. In retrospect, it’s easy to see that Halladay may not have been as well prepared for the big leagues as it appeared at first glance. His strikeout/walk numbers in the high minors were unremarkable– a trend that followed him to the big leagues.

After he was battered for 19 games in 2000, Halladay carried a 5.77 ERA through 231 innings. He was sent all the way back to High Class-A in 2001. It was during his return to the minors that Halladay famously overhauled his mechanics and mental approach. By the time he returned to the big leagues in July, he was a completely different pitcher. He finished the season with 105.1 big league innings at 145 ERA+.

In 2002, Halladay proved that his transformation was permanent. He made the All Star team, and led the league with 239.1 innings at 157 ERA+.

In 2003, he upped the ante with 266 innings, also leading the league with 22 wins, nine complete games, and a 6.38 K/BB ratio. He was again an All Star, and won 26 of 28 first place votes for the Cy Young.

After injuries in 2004-2005 limited him to just 274.2 total innings, Halladay resumed his dominance of the American League in 2006. He finished his Blue Jays career with four straight top-five Cy Young finishes, and 930.1 innings at 142 ERA+.

Halladay’s tenure in Toronto came to a crossroads after the 2009 season. Despite his individual brilliance, Halladay had been unable to elevate the Blue Jays to the playoffs at any point in his career. In December, Toronto traded him to the defending champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Halladay was brilliant in his initiation to the National League in 2010. He led the league with 21 wins, 250.2 innings, and 1.1 BB/9. The Phillies won their fourth straight N.L. East title. Halladay threw a no-hitter in the NLDS opener against the Reds, but the Phillies fell to the Giants in the NLCS. After the season, Halladay won the Cy Young, making him just the fifth player to have won the award in both leagues at the time.

He was similarly excellent in 2011, pacing the N.L. in ERA+ (163) and FIP (2.20). The Phillies won the division again before losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Hallday finished second in the Cy Young race.

Injuries took their toll on Halladay after 2011. In his last two seasons, he struggled to remain on the mound, and was mostly ineffective when he did. He retired after his age-36 season.

Hall of Fame?

In his 16-year career, Roy Halladay established himself as one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. He finished with a record of 203-105 and 131 ERA+. He was even more superb in the 11 seasons in the middle of his career. From 2001-2011, he was 175-78 with a 148 ERA+.

Halladay was an eight-time All Star. He led the league in wins twice, and innings four times during his career. In addition to his two Cy Youngs, he finished fifth, or better, another five times in his career including two second-place finishes.

JAWS ranks Halladay as the 43rd best starting pitcher in history. The system is structured to reward peak level dominance, which is essential to Halladay’s case. What he lacks in longevity, and counting stats, he makes up for with his marvelous 11-year peak.

Roy Halladay died tragically in a plane crash on November 7, 2017 at the age of 40.

I have previously mentioned that I prefer to give considerable weight to peak level brilliance when evaluating Hall of Fame candidates. Roy Halladay is a poster boy for the reasons why. Anyone who watched him pitch during his peak knew they were witnessing a Hall of Fame career. Even if he doesn’t check all of the boxes for counting stats, there is little doubt he was one of the best pitchers of his era.

Roy Halladay appears poised to be elected to the Hall of Fame this winter, on the first ballot.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (9-10)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:  

Players 11-15 by JAWS.

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

10.  Andruw Jones

JAWS:  54.7 (57.7 Average HOF CF)

Andruw Jones was born and raised in Willemstad, Curacao.  He signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in July, 1993.  Once he reached the U.S., Jones quickly stood out among his peers.  Baseball America ranked him as their top prospect prior to the 1996 season.

Just 19 in 1996, Jones advanced through three levels of the minor leagues, slugging 34 homers and stealing 30 bases in just 116 games.  He made his big league debut in August, and quickly earned regular playing time.  Jones became an international sensation when he hit .400/.500/.750 with two homers as a teenager in the Braves 1996 World Series loss to the Yankees.

Jones quickly established himself as one of the best defensive center fielders in the game.  He won 10 straight Gold Gloves as a member of the Braves, helping to anchor the defense behind one of the greatest starting rotations in history.  

His offense steadily improved as well.  In 12 seasons with the Braves, Jones hit .263/.342/.497, 113 OPS+.  In 2005 he finished second in the MVP voting when he led the league with 51 homers and 128 RBI in addition to his excellent defense.

The Braves won the N.L. East every season from 1996-2005.  They won the pennant in 1996 and 1999.  Jones was a critical piece of their sustained success.

After appearing in the postseason every year since 1991, the Braves finished third in 2006-2007.  In 2007, Jones produced just 87 OPS+ in his age 30 season and the Braves elected to let him walk away as a free agent.

Jones signed with the Dodgers for 2008, but struggled to remain healthy and effective.  He was released that winter and signed with the Rangers.  Jones spent 2009-2012 in the American League.  He played single seasons in Texas, Chicago, and the final two years of his career with the Yankees where he contributed to back-to-back A.L. East titles.  

Jones starred for two seasons with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japanese Pacific League where he hit 50 homers in 2013-2014, but never returned to the big leagues.  

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Andruw Jones hit .254/.337/.486, 111 OPS+.  A solid hitter, Jones produced nearly as much value in the field and on the bases.  He was a five-time All Star who won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger.  He received MVP votes five times.

Jones ranks as the 11th best center fielder by JAWS.  Although he is just shy of the average mark for the position, that number is boosted by the exceptional careers of several all-time greats.  Jones ranks better than 12 of the 19 Hall of Fame center fielders.  

There is a strange dynamic at play regarding the candidacy of Jones.  For the first 11 years of his career, there was little doubt that Jones was on a Hall of Fame trajectory.  An excellent defensive player who blossomed into an elite hitter, Jones had the benefit of breaking into the big leagues younger than most, and figured to rack up massive counting stats into his 30s.  

Then the last part failed to materialize.  Over the last six years of his career, Jones was an entirely different player.  His athleticism declined with startling rapidity sapping his defensive value to the point where he abandoned center field altogether, and spent significant time at DH during his A.L. years.  He produced just 92 OPS+ and 4.7 bWAR from age 30-35 before washing out of the big leagues for good.

Jones was named on just 7.3% of the ballots during his first year of eligibility.  He is teetering on the brink of falling off the ballot entirely this year.  The voters appear to be aggressively penalizing him for his rapid decline, rather than properly rewarding his magnificent peak. 

For me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer.  If forced to choose, I prefer shorter stretches of brilliance over long-term statistical compilers.  Both have their place in Cooperstown, and Andruw Jones certainly fits into the former category.

9.  Manny Ramirez

JAWS:  54.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Manny Ramirez was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  He moved to the U.S. as a teenager, and graduated from George Washington High School in Manhattan.  The Cleveland Indians drafted him 13th overall in June, 1991.  A supremely talented hitter, Ramirez immediately put himself on the prospect map.  After shredding the high minors in 1993, he earned a big league trial.  Baseball America ranked him as their #7 prospect entering 1994.

The Cleveland Indians were on the verge of becoming one of the most successful teams of the late-90s when Ramirez burst onto the scene.  They were one game out of first when the strike began in 1994.  Cleveland would go on to win five straight A.L. Central titles as Ramirez established himself as one of the best hitters in the game.

During his eight seasons in Cleveland, Ramirez hit .313/.407/.592, 152 OPS+.  He led the league with 165 RBI in 1999 and paced the junior circuit in slugging and OPS in 1999-2000.

Manny hit free agency after the 2000 season.  He was entering his age-29 season coming off three straight top-six MVP finishes.  In a move that would alter the course of two franchises, Ramirez signed with the Boston Red Sox.

In Boston, Manny was exactly as advertised.  He remained of the most feared right-handed hitters in the game for eight seasons with the Red Sox.  His career line in Boston was a virtual carbon copy of that in Cleveland at .312/.411/.588, 155 OPS+.  He won the batting title in 2002 (.349), led the league in slugging in 2004 (.613), and had the highest OBP in the league three times as a member of the Red Sox.

Manny would end up as a central piece of Boston’s turnaround after the turn of the century.  Boston won the Wild Card three straight years beginning in 2003.  Their improbable ALCS comeback against the Yankees in 2004 paved the way for the franchise’s first World Series championship since 1918.  Manny was the World Series MVP in the sweep of the Cardinals.  When they won again in 2007, Manny was still hitting in the middle of the Boston order.

By 2008, Ramirez’s declining defensive value, and generally erratic behavior, had worn thin in Boston.  It became clear that the Red Sox would not sign him to a contract extension after the season.  Although he was still a productive hitter, and they were in the middle of a playoff race, the Red Sox traded Ramirez to the Dodgers at the deadline.

Ramirez dominated the stretch run in Los Angeles, helping the Dodgers to the N.L. West title.  He signed a contract extension in L.A. and helped the Dodgers repeat as division champs the next year, although he was suspended 50 games for PED use.    

When the Dodgers faded in 2010, they let Manny pass to the White Sox via waivers late in August.  He played his final big league game for Tampa in April, 2011.  Although he bounced around the Triple-A Pacific Coast League for three different teams from 2012-2014, he would never return to the Majors. 

Hall of Fame?

In his incredible 19-year career, Manny Ramirez hit .312/.411/.585, 154 OPS+.  His 555 career homers rank 15th all-time.  Manny was a 12-time All Star who won nine Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes 11 times including eight straight top-nine finishes.  

Manny ranks as the 10th best left fielder in history by JAWS.  He is just above the average, and ranks better than 13 of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position.  

Like half-a-dozen players on the current ballot, Ramirez’s candidacy has been torpedoed by steroid use.  Ramirez tested positive three different times during his career leaving a permanent black eye on his resume. 

Although his credentials place him at a level above Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa, the voters have clearly shown that they view Manny closer to that group than to Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Now in his third year of eligibility, Manny clearly needs a shift in the voters’ attitudes toward the steroid era to have any chance of enshrinement in Cooperstown.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (11-15)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:  

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

15.  Lance Berkman

JAWS:  45.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Lance Berkman was born and raised in the Texas Triangle.  A graduate of Canyon High School in New Braunfels, TX northeast of San Antonio, Berkman played his college ball in Houston at Rice University.  The Houston Astros selected Berkman 16th overall in the 1997 draft.  A Baseball America Top-100 Prospect from 1998-2000, Berkman advanced quickly through Houston’s minor league system.  He made his big league debut in July, 1999.

A switch-hitter with power and patience, Berkman quickly established himself as one of the top hitters in the National League.  In 12 seasons with the Astros, Berkman hit .296/.410/.594, 146 OPS+.  He led the league in doubles in 2001 (55) and 2008 (46) and RBI in 2002 (128).  

Berkman contributed to four Astros playoff teams including the 2005 National League Champions.  He was the best player by bWAR on the 2001 N.L. Central Champions, and the 2004 N.L. Wild Card winner.

With the team struggling in 2010, the Astros traded Berkman to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  Serving primarily as a DH, Berkman helped New York secure the Wild Card spot.

Berkman signed with the St. Louis Cardinals heading into 2011.  It would turn out to be one of the best offensive seasons of his career.  The 2011 Cardinals turned a Wild Card berth into the 12th World Series championship in franchise history.  Berkman was a driving force in their victory over the Texas Rangers, hitting .423/.516/.577 with nine runs and five RBI in the seven-game series.

The Cardinals won the Wild Card again in 2012, but Berkman played just 32 games as injuries took their toll.  He finished his career with the Texas Rangers in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Lance Berkman was a marvelous all around player during his 15-year career.  With a career line of .293/.406/.537, 144 OPS+, Berkman was clearly one of the most dominant hitters of his era.  He was also a versatile defensive player who played at least 166 games at all three outfield spots as well as first base during his career.

He was a six-time All Star who received MVP votes in seven seasons including third-place finishes in 2002 and 2006.

In his first year on the ballot, it is unclear how the voters will treat Berkman.  He spent much of his career surrounded by fellow Hall of Fame caliber talents.  As a result, it is possible that he was underappreciated during his career.

Berkman ranks as the 20th best left fielder by JAWS.  His career 144 OPS+ puts him well above the average for Hall of Fame left fielders.  Minimal defensive value, and a comparatively short career, are probably enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.  

On a loaded ballot, it’s possible Berkman fails to achieve the 5% needed to remain eligible beyond this year.  He probably deserves better than that, but either way, it’s hard to see him standing out among the other stellar hitters on the ballot at this time.  

14.  Andy Pettitte

JAWS:  47.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Andy Pettitte was a 1990 graduate of Deer Park High School in Texas.  The New York Yankees selected him as a draft-and-follow candidate in the 22nd round that June.  Pettitte enrolled in San Jacinto College in Houston and showed enough in the spring of 1991 that the Yankees signed him that May.  Pettitte climbed methodically through the Yankees system. 

By 1995, Pettitte was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.  He made his debut that season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting, and helping New York to the Wild Card. 

The Yankees made the playoffs every season from 1995-2003.  With Pettitte providing a steady presence in their rotation, New York won the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000.  Pettite finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young four times during this period.

After a tough loss to the Marlins in the 2003 World Series, Pettitte became a free agent.  Entering his age-32 season, Pettitte returned home to pitch for the Houston Astros.  From 2004-2006 with the Astros, Pettitte was one of the best pitchers in the National League.  He helped the team to Wild Card berths in 2004-2005, and the National League pennant in 2005.  

After the 2006 season, Pettitte returned to the Yankees.  He spent most of the next seven years pitching for the Yankees, although he sat out the 2011 season entirely.  Pettitte pitched for four more Yankees playoff teams during this stretch, and won his fifth World Series in 2009.

Hall of Fame?

Andy Pettitte finished his 18-year career with a record of 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, and 3.74 FIP.  He was a three-time All Star who finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting five times.  

In his first year on the ballot, Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy is probably the dividing mark for the members of the storied Yankees dynasty of that era.  While Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are no doubt first-ballot Hall of Famers, the team’s success did little for the candidacies of Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, both of whom have already fallen off the ballot. 

Pettitte is pretty clearly in the middle of those five.  He will surely show better than Posada or Williams, but won’t achieve the same type of perhaps unanimous support as Jeter or Rivera.  

Pettitte falls considerably short of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher.  He is probably one of the top-100 starters in history, but that hardly ensures enshrinement in Cooperstown.  

My gut feeling is that history will struggle with how to properly view Pettitte’s career.  At different times, he was both one of the best pitchers in the game, and highly overrated.  There is little doubt that if he had played for another organization, his resume would fall short as his win-loss record and postseason exploits are pillars of his case.  At the same time, how many of the five Yankees championships he helped secure would have been won without him?  

Of course, we have not even mentioned Pettitte’s admitted use of Human Growth Hormone in the middle of his career.  For a player whose case is fringy to begin with, his PED use is probably too much to overcome in the current climate.  If he can hang around on the ballot for a full ten-year stretch, it is possible that changing views on both PED’s, and the modern starting pitcher, could help his chances in the long run.  For now, it’s hard to imagine him getting in any time soon.

13.  Gary Sheffield

JAWS:  49.3 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Gary Sheffield was born and raised in Tampa, Florida.  A 1986 graduate of Hillsborough High School, Sheffield was drafted sixth overall by the Milwaukee Brewers.  Originally a shortstop, Sheffield proved to be a highly advanced offensive player in his ascension through the Brewers system.  He made his big league debut late in 1988 at just 19.

The club shifted him to third base, in the big leagues, and outside of a three-win season in 1990, Sheffield struggled through most of his time with the Brewers.   By the end of the 1991 season, his career OPS+ was 95 while averaging just 90 games in his three full seasons.

In Spring Training, 1992 the Brewers traded Sheffield to the San Diego Padres.  With a clean start in a new organization, Sheffield thrived.  He won the N.L. batting title in 1992 with a line of .330/.385/.580, 168 OPS+.  In 1993, the Padres struggled, Sheffield slowed, and the All Star third baseman was traded to the Florida Marlins for a package including future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman.

Sheffield spent more time with the Marlins that anywhere else in his career.  The Marlins moved him to the outfield where he would remain for the rest of his career.  From 1993-1998, he hit .288/.426/.543, 156 OPS+ and produced 13.2 bWAR.  He led the N.L. in OBP (.465) and OPS+ (189) in 1996. 

An expansion team in 1993, the Marlins struggled to find their footing until 1997.  That year they won 92 games and the N.L. Wild Card en route to the World Series.  As the team’s best hitter in the regular season as well as the playoffs, no one played a larger role in Florida’s first World Series championship than Gary Sheffield.

Marlins ownership infamously tore down their championship core heading into 1998.  Sheffield was traded to the Dodgers as part of a massive package that temporarily resulted in Mike Piazza joining the Marlins.  

From 1998-2001 in Los Angeles, Sheffield remained one of the best hitters in baseball.  He posted a .312/.424/.573, 160 OPS+ line producing 17.0 bWAR.  The Dodgers never made the postseason during Sheffield’s tenure and traded him to the Braves before the 2002 season.

Sheffield posted 151 OPS+ over his two seasons in Atlanta.  The 2002-2003 Braves had nearly identical seasons winning 101 games, the N.L. East title, and ultimately losing in the first round of the playoffs.

A free agent after the 2003 season, Sheffield signed with the New York Yankees.  From 2004-2006 he produced 135 OPS+ and was part of three straight A.L. East championships.

After he was derailed by injuries in 2006, the Yankees traded him to the Detroit Tigers.  Primarily a DH during his two seasons in Detroit, Sheffield was still an above-average hitter, but had slowed considerably.  The Tigers released him prior to the 2009 season as the slugger sat with 499 career homers.

Sheffield quickly signed with the New York Mets.  He played 100 games in the final season of his career, hitting 10 homers to give him a career total of 509.

Hall of Fame?

In his remarkable 22-year career, Gary Sheffield hit .292/.393/.514, 140 OPS+.  His 509 career home runs rank 26th all-time.  Sheffield was a nine-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes seven times including three seasons in which he finished second or third (1992, 2003, 2004).

Sheffield ranks as the 23rd best right fielder in history by JAWS.  Although he ranks above 11 Hall of Famers at the position, he stands little chance of induction at this time.  

In 2004, Sheffield admitted to steroid use as part of the BALCO investigation.  Players with better statistical resumes who have been linked to steroid use have failed to secure the support necessary for election.  Like Pettitte, this reality is probably too much for Sheffield to overcome. 

Now in his fifth year of eligibility, Sheffield has some time for the ballot, and sentiment, to shift in his favor.  After securing just 11% of the vote in 2018, he may have too far to go in too short a time.

12.  Sammy Sosa

JAWS:  51.2 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Sammy Sosa was born and raised in San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic.  He signed as an amateur free agent with the Texas Rangers in July, 1985.  As a young player, Sosa was wiry strong and explosive, but raw.  His tantalizing physical tools allowed him to climb through the Rangers system.  Despite the obvious flaws in his game, notably a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, Sosa made his big league debut with Texas at 20.

That same season, the Rangers used Sosa as part of a package to land White Sox Franchise Phenom Harold Baines at the trade deadline.  Sosa continued to flash his physical talent with the White Sox, but failed to make significant progress in refining his game.  Sosa was essentially a replacement-level player during his time with the White Sox. 

Prior to the 1992 season, the Sox made a decision that would alter the fate of both Chicago franchises.  They traded Sammy Sosa to the Cubs as the headline piece for All Star outfielder George Bell.  At 32, Bell had just two seasons left in the big leagues while the 23-year-old Sosa would go on to become one of the best players in Cubs history.

Sosa steadily improved during his early years with the Cubs, settling in as an above-average hitter by 1993.  In 1995, Sosa began a streak of nine straight seasons in which he would received MVP votes.  He was a 30/30 player in both 1993 and 1995.  He hit 40 homers for the first time in 1996.

 Everything changed for Sammy Sosa, and Major League Baseball, in 1998.  During that famed summer, Sosa and Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire embarked on their epic chase of Roger Maris‘s single-season home run record.  McGwire finished with 70 to set the new record, but Sosa also broke the old record with 66 of his own.  Sosa led the league in runs (134) and RBI (158).  The Cubs won the N.L. Wild Card, and Sosa the MVP.

Sosa remained one of the most feared sluggers in baseball for years.  He hit 63 homers in 1999, and 64 in 2001, making him the only player in history with three 60-homer seasons.  When the Cubs won the N.L. Central in 2003, Sosa was still their best hitter.  

In 13 seasons with the Cubs, Sosa hit .284/.358/.569, 139 OPS+, and 545 homers.

His final years in Chicago were marred by a suspension for corking his bat, increased suspicion about steroid usage, and alienation of the organization he had carried for a decade. 

Sosa was traded to Baltimore before the 2006 season.  He sat out 2007.  He then returned to hit 21 homers for the Rangers in 2008 allowing him to eclipse the 600 mark for his career.

Hall of Fame?

In his 18-year career, Sammy Sosa hit .273/.344/.534, 128 OPS+.  His 609 career homers rank ninth all-time.  Sosa was a seven-time All Star who won six Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes nine times.  He finished second in 2001, and won the award during his incredible 1998 season.

Sosa ranks as the 18th best right fielder by JAWS, five spots ahead of Sheffield, and above two more Hall of Famers.  Despite his on-paper advantages, he has actually fared worse than Sheffield up to this point in the process.

Even more so than Sheffield, Sosa is a poster boy for the steroid era.  Despite suspicions that engulfed the late stages of his career, and a June, 2009 New York Times report claiming he tested positive in 2003, Sosa has remained evasive on the subject in retirement.  The issue remains the cause of friction with Cubs ownership to this day.

Now in his seventh year on the ballot, Sosa has even less time for things to swing in his favor than Sheffield.  He earned just 7.8% of the vote in 2018.

11.  Todd Helton

JAWS:  53.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Todd Helton was the 8th overall pick by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Tennessee in the 1995 draft.

He played his entire 17-year career with the Rockies.  His career line of .316/.414/.539, 133 OPS+, and 61.2 bWAR makes him the best player in franchise history.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Todd Helton’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

Todd Helton was a five-time All Star who won four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.  

Helton has a strong case for enshrinement in Cooperstown.  By JAWS, Helton ranks as the 15th best first baseman in history.  While that places him just below the lofty average mark for the position, he is surrounded by Hall of Famers on the list.

2019 is Helton’s first year on the ballot.  Now in his ninth year on the ballot, Larry Walker’s results provide a potential guide for the way Helton’s candidacy may be viewed.  Although modern metrics strip away ballpark context, baseball writers have long struggled to separate the Coors Field effect when evaluating Rockies players for awards.  Hitters are often over-penalized and pitchers under-rewarded. 

Walker is running out of time in his bid to be elected by the writers, but Helton figures to benefit in the long run as the writers grapple with Walker’s candidacy.  At some point, these two players will force BBWAA members to determine what, exactly, a Rockies hitter would have to do to earn their vote.  How preposterous do the numbers have to be?

In my world, both Helton and Walker are Hall of Fame players.  I am cautiously optimistic that they will each be recognized as such at some point in the future.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (16-20)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the first piece in the series.  Players 21-25 by JAWS.

20.  Miguel Tejada

JAWS:  41.9 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Miguel Tejada was born and raised in Bani, Dominican Republic.  He signed as an amateur free agent with the Oakland Athletics in July, 1993.  Tejada came stateside in 1995 and quickly established himself as a well-rounded shortstop prospect in his age-21 season.  He was a Baseball America Top-100 prospect for three straight seasons, including back-to-back top-10 rankings in 1997 and 1998.  

In seven seasons with Oakland, Tejada hit .270/.331/.460 for 107 OPS+.  From 1998-2003, he averaged 3.7 bWAR.  In 2002, he won the American League MVP on the strength of a .308/.354/.508, 128 OPS+ line with 34 homers and 131 RBI.  

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series.  With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources.  After the 2003 season, the A’s allowed Tejada to depart via free agency to the Baltimore Orioles.

Tejada’s stretch in Baltimore from 2004-2007 was the best of his career.  He averaged .311/.362/.501, 124 OPS+, and 5.0 bWAR.  He made the All Star team three times, and won two Silver Sluggers.  The Orioles had a losing record each season.  They dealt Tejada to Houston after the 2007 season.

Tejada made the All Star team both seasons in Houston, but his production began to slip.  He averaged 101 OPS+ and 1.9 bWAR.  

From 2010-2011, Tejada bounced around from Baltimore to San Diego, and San Francisco.  After missing the 2012 season, Tejada returned for 53 games with Kansas City in 2013, his final stint in the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

Miguel Tejada was one of the top shortstops in baseball during an era of great shortstops.  Tejada was a six-time All Star who won two Silver Sluggers, and the 2002 A.L. MVP.

JAWS ranks him as the top shortstop on the 2019 Ballot in his first year of eligibility.  His well-rounded skill set, and incredible durability (he played 162 games every season from 2001-2006), helped him accumulate more career bWAR than Omar Vizquel in 797 fewer games.  

Ultimately, Tejada’s statistical case leaves him shy of the Hall of Fame standard at the position.  When combined with the cloud of PED evidence surrounding his career, Tejada stands little chance of induction.  It is entirely possible that he falls off the ballot after this year.

19.  Mariano Rivera

JAWS:  42.5 (32.3 Average HOF RP)

Mariano Rivera was signed as an amateur free agent out of Panama by the New York Yankees in 1990.  Rivera excelled during his minor league career in the Yankees system while splitting time between starting and relieving.  Rivera made his big league debut at the age of 25 in 1995.  Although he started 10 games during his rookie year, Rivera’s destiny was in the bullpen.

Beginning in 1996, Rivera embarked on an incredibly dominant career as a reliever.  For the next 18 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera was consistently among the best relievers in the game.  His utter dominance in the late innings was a key element of the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s and early 2000s.  

The Yankees made the playoffs 13 straight seasons from 1995-2007 and 17 times in Rivera’s 19 seasons with the club.  Rivera was a key piece of five World Series championships (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009).

His legacy in the postseason leaves no doubt about Rivera’s place in baseball history.  In 141 career playoff innings across 96 games, Rivera was 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.70 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP.  Simply put, if the Yankees handed Mariano Rivera a lead in October, the game was over.

Mariano Rivera finished his career with a record of 82-60, 652 saves, a 2.21 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 205 ERA+ over 1283.2 innings.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons with the New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera carved out his legacy as the greatest closer in baseball history.

Rivera was a 13-time All Star, five-time Rolaids Reliever of the Year, and five-time World Champion.  He was the ALCS MVP against Boston in 2003, and the World Series MVP against Atlanta in 1999.

He is baseball’s all-time leader in saves (652) and ERA+ (205).  

Rivera ranks second all-time in JAWS among relievers, trailing only Dennis Eckersley whose 12 seasons and 361 games as a starting pitcher hardly makes for an apples to apples comparison.  

Rivera appears to be a slam dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer.  The only real question seems to be whether or not he will make history one more time as the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

18.  Fred McGriff

JAWS:  44.3 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Fred McGriff was born and raised in Tampa, Florida.  A 1981 graduate of Jefferson High School, McGriff was selected in the 9th round by the New York Yankees.  After the 1982 season, the 19-year-old McGriff was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays.  McGriff had a cup of coffee with Toronto in 1986, and was in the majors for good in 1987.

From 1987-1990, McGriff averaged .278/.390/.531, 154 OPS+, and 4.8 bWAR.  He led the league in homers (36) and OPS+ (165) en route to a Silver Slugger award in 1989.  

In one of the most fascinating trades in baseball history, the Blue Jays shipped McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter in December, 1990.  The deal worked out famously for the Blue Jays while McGriff and Fernandez both had All Star seasons in San Diego.

In parts of three seasons with the Padres, McGriff averaged .281/.388/.519 and 149 OPS+.  He led the National League with 35 homers in 1992, earning All Star and Silver Slugger honors in the process.

With the Padres in the midst of a brutal 1993 season, McGriff was traded to the Atlanta Braves in July.  He remained with Atlanta through 1997, helping to propel the Braves to four division championships, and the 1995 World Series championship.  In parts of five seasons in Atlanta, McGriff hit .293/.369/.516 and 128 OPS+.  He was a three-time All Star for the Braves.

Following the 1997 season, the Braves sold McGriff to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays who were heading into their inaugural season as an expansion franchise.  Now in his mid-30s, McGriff remained an above-average, and sometimes excellent, hitter in his home town.  He made his fifth, and final, All Star team in 2000.

At the 2001 trade deadline, Tampa dealt McGriff to the Chicago Cubs.  He remained in Chicago through the 2002 season.  McGriff spent 2003 with the Dodgers, and wrapped up his career back in Tampa for 27 games in 2004.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons, Fred McGriff hit .284/.377/.509, good for 134 OPS+.  His 493 career homers fall just shy of the magical 500 threshold.  A five-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger, McGriff was one of the most feared sluggers of his era.

Unfortunately for McGriff, much of his career was played during the peak of baseball’s steroid era.  While McGriff has never been seriously linked to PED use, it is difficult to find proper context for his numbers.  As a result of the high offensive bar at the position, he ranks 31st among first basemen by JAWS.  More than a third of the players who rank above him are from the same generation.

2019 represents McGriff’s 10th, and final, season on the ballot.  After earning just 23.2% of the vote in 2018, McGriff seems all but certain to fall short of the required 75% this year.  It is fair to wonder whether he might fair better with the Today’s Game Committee in the future.

17.  Roy Oswalt

JAWS:  45.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Oswalt was born and raised in Central Mississippi.  A graduate of Weir High School, Oswalt played his college ball at Holmes Community College in Ridgeland, MS.  The Houston Astros selected him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft out of Holmes.  

Despite his small frame, Oswalt used electric stuff to post solid strikeout numbers across the Houston farm system.  When he made a quantum leap with his control during the 2000 season, he jumped to #13 on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects.  He made his big league debut in 2001.

Oswalt made an immediate impact in Houston working to a 170 ERA+ and fifth place Cy Young finish during his rookie season to help the Astros win the N.L. Central.  He helped Houston back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2004 and 2005.  In 2005, the Astros won the National League pennant as Oswalt combined with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to form the most dominant starting rotation in franchise history.  

In 10 seasons with the Astros, Oswalt went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA, 133 ERA+, and 3.35 FIP.  He finished in the top-five in the Cy Young voting five times, and made three All Star teams.  

With Houston out of contention in 2010, they traded Oswalt to the Phillies.  Oswalt helped pitch the Phillies to consecutive A.L. East titles in 2010-2011.  

He signed with the Texas Rangers in May, 2012 and helped them into the Wild Card Game.  He finished his career with nine games for the Rockies in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

For much of Roy Oswalt’s 13-year career, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  He finished with a career record of 163-102, 3.36 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 3.37 FIP.  He is the greatest pitcher in Astros franchise history.

In his first year on the ballot, it is not entirely clear what kind of support we can expect for Oswalt.  I suspect that, ultimately, he was neither durable nor dominant enough to make up for his shortcomings in the other category.  Two more years of his top level, or three to four more at his career average, would have made his case considerably more intriguing.

I think it’s possible that Oswalt can hang around on the ballot beyond this year.  That’s hardly a certainty given the loaded field he is competing with for the voters’ attention.  

16.  Jeff Kent

JAWS:  45.6 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Jeff Kent was born and raised in Southern California.  After graduating from Edison High School in Huntington Beach, he headed north to play his college ball at the University of California, Berkeley.  The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Kent in the 20th round in 1989.

Although his defense was regarded with some skepticism by scouts, Kent proved himself to be a polished offensive player in a quick ascent through the Toronto system.  He made his big league debut in 1992.  After proving himself capable of producing at the big league level, Kent was used as the headliner in an August trade with the Mets that brought David Cone to Toronto.  Cone helped pitch Toronto to a World Series title that same season.

In parts of five seasons with the Mets from 1992-1996, Kent averaged 107 OPS+ while playing passable defense at second and third.  At the 1996 trade deadline, the Mets used Kent as the key piece in a deal to land All Star second baseman Carlos Baerga from the Indians. 

Although the Indians won the A.L. Central in 1996, Kent made minimal impact down the stretch, or in the playoffs.  In November, he was traded from Cleveland to San Francisco as part of a package for All Star third baseman Matt Williams.

Entering his age-29 season in 1997, Kent was at a crossroads.  He had already been traded three times, each time as the headline piece that landed his former club an All Star in return. 

In San Francisco, Kent finally found himself.  Paired with Barry Bonds, he began his Giants career with consecutive top-10 MVP finishes in 1997-1998.  In 1999 he began a string of three straight All Star selections.  In 2000, Kent won the National League MVP with a line of .334/.424/.596, 162 OPS+, and 7.2 bWAR.

With Bonds and Kent, the Giants were in contention every season.  They won the N.L. West in 1997 and 2000.  They parlayed a 2002 Wild Card berth into the National League pennant.  In six seasons with the Giants, Kent averaged 136 OPS+ and 5.2 bWAR.  He was a three-time All Star, and won three Silver Sluggers.

After the 2002 season, Kent signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros.  He remained a solid hitter, producing 121 OPS+ in two seasons.  He helped Houston reach the 2004 NLCS.  Kent was an All Star in 2004.

Once again a free agent after 2004, Kent signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  From 2005-2008, he averaged 119 OPS+ and 1.7 bWAR as age sapped his defensive value.  He was an All Star for the final time in 2005.  He helped the Dodgers to a Wild Card berth in 2006, and the N.L. West title in 2008.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Jeff Kent established a legacy as one of the best offensive second basemen in history.  Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and the 2000 N.L. MVP.

Kent is now in his sixth year on the ballot.  He appears to be hanging by a thread after receiving just 14.5% of the vote last year. 

Although he falls short of the JAWS average for second basemen, he ranks higher than eight of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position.  Offensively, he is even better.  His 123 OPS+ is better than 13 of the 20.  He is the all-time leader in home runs by a second baseman.

Despite his offensive prowess, Kent’s defensive track record costs him both in terms of career value produced, and in the minds of the voters.  His offensive chops are such that it’s not impossible to imagine him experiencing a late surge, but it seems unlikely.

Omar Vizquel: Hall of Famer?

JAWS:  36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Omar Vizquel was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Seattle Mariners in 1984.  A slightly-built switch-hitting shortstop, Vizquel’s glove work carried him through the minor leagues.  He made his big league debut with Seattle in 1989.

As the primary shortstop in Seattle from 1989-1993, Vizquel was a consistently above-average defender who often struggled mightily at the plate.  He won his first Gold Glove in his final season with the Mariners.  After the 1993 season, Vizquel was traded to the Cleveland Indians.

In Cleveland, Vizquel’s skill set proved particularly valuable.  The Indians teams of that era were marked by incredibly deep offensive lineups and suspect pitching.  They could afford to carry Vizquel’s bat in exchange for his steadying presence at shortstop.

From 1995-2001, the Indians made the playoffs six times in seven seasons with Vizquel at shortstop.  They won the American League in 1995 and 1997, but were defeated by the Braves and Marlins respectively in the World Series.

By 1996, Vizquel’s offense had developed to the point where he would often flirt with league-average production.  Never much of a power hitter, Vizquel managed to leverage good contact skills, control of the strike zone, and improved base running into some decent offensive years along the way.

Vizquel spent 2005-2008 with the San Francisco Giants.  By the end of his Giants tenure, he was 40 years old and clearly declining.  His defense was still solid– if not what it had been at his peak– but his offense had regressed to the point where he was no longer playable every day.  He spent 2009-2012 with the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays before retiring after his age-45 season.

Hall of Fame?

Vizquel is one of the most interesting cases among the current candidates.  He received 37% of the vote in his first year on the ballot last year, so there is clearly some staying power here. 

In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter.  He was an above-average offensive player just twice.  His entire Hall of Fame case rests on the defensive side of the ledger.

Searching For Context

Only eight players have won more career Gold Gloves than Vizquel’s 11.  Of those eight, only Jim Kaat (16x at pitcher) and Keith Hernandez (11x at first base) are not in the Hall of Fame. 

By bWAR, Vizquel is the ninth-best defender of all-time.  The great Orioles shortstop Mark Belanger is the only player rated higher than Vizquel who is not in the Hall of Fame.

Vizquel Among Shortstops

Proponents of Vizquel’s candidacy say that his defensive prowess is more than enough for him to be considered a Hall of Famer.  Their argument typically centers around the number of Gold Gloves, indelible memories of highlight plays, and the reality that other elite defensive shortstops such as Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio, and Rabbit Maranville were elected with similarly unimpressive offensive numbers.

Omar Vizquel is not Ozzie Smith.  This is the most common comparison drawn by Vizquel’s supporters, and it simply doesn’t work.  Smith is the preeminent defensive player in baseball history and is ultimately without peer.  Smith was also the better hitter at a career 87 OPS+, and a superior base runner.  Vizquel doesn’t have to be Ozzie Smith to be worthy of the Hall of Fame, but that false equivalency is an important point to correct.

Two comparisons that actually work out pretty well for Vizquel are with Aparicio and Maranville.  All three produced identical 82 OPS+ marks for their respective careers.  Aparicio actually claims a rather significant offensive edge as a result of being a consistently above-average base runner.  Vizquel and Maranville rank as similarly average base runners.  The three are also very similar in most modern interpretations of their defensive play.

The closest active comparison to Vizquel is probably Los Angeles Angels shortstop, Andrelton Simmons.  Simmons will enter his age-29 season as the premier defensive shortstop in baseball, and a career 92 OPS+ hitter.  Simmons will almost certainly accrue more defensive value than Vizquel by the time his career has concluded, and could potentially accomplish that feat as soon as this coming season.  Unless you believe that Simmons is a slam dunk Hall of Famer in his own right, it probably makes sense to pump the breaks on Vizquel.

Conclusion

I’m generally not a “Small Hall” kind of guy.  I prefer to err on the side of generosity.  I think the Hall of Fame as an institution benefits from honoring a wide variety of players.  

In the end, I can’t quite get there on Vizquel.  He would be among the 2-3 least impressive shortstops in the Hall of Fame if he were selected.  If you merely aspire to find candidates that clear the lowest bar at their position, you can find dozens of players who could be included.  I don’t necessarily believe that any new Hall of Famer has to raise the average bar for his position either, but Vizquel is too far from that mark for me.

I always admired Vizquel’s skills.  There are a handful of his defensive plays that I can recall vividly from memory, and I can’t say that for more than maybe a couple of dozen players in history.  At the same time, I never felt like Omar Vizquel was a truly elite player at any point during his career.  

I don’t want to come off as a Vizquel basher, or dismissive of his accomplishments.  Omar Vizquel was a great player.  I don’t believe he was a Hall of Famer. 

That doesn’t mean we should forget about him either.

Omar Vizquel Career Highlights from Major League Baseball

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (21-25)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

We begin with the players who rank 21-25 by JAWS.

25.  Freddy Garcia

JAWS:  30.9 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Freddy Garcia was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Houston Astros in 1993.  In 1998, the Astros packaged him with Carlos Guillen and John Halama to acquire future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson from the Seattle Mariners.  Johnson made 11 dominant starts for Houston, helping them to the NL Central championship before signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks after the season.  Garcia and Guillen would each end up among the greatest players in Mariners history.

In six seasons with Seattle, Freddy Garcia went 76-50 with a 114 ERA+, accumulating 18.7 bWAR.  He was a two-time All Star with the Mariners and led the American League in ERA (3.05) and innings (238.2) in 2001.  

With Garcia approaching free agency, the Mariners dealt him to the Chicago White Sox in June, 2004.  From 2004-2006, Garcia made 82 starts for the White Sox, remaining consistently above-average in the process.  He was a key piece of the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox.

Chicago traded Garcia to the Phillies after the 2006 season.  From 2007-2013, Garcia bounced around to six teams including a return engagement with the White Sox in 2009-2010.  In 2011, he made 25 starts at 119 ERA+ to help the Yankees win the A.L. East.  Overall, he struggled to remain both healthy and effective for much of his final seven seasons.

Hall of Fame?

Freddy Garcia is one of the best pitchers in the comparatively short history of the Seattle Mariners.  He will be listed on the all-time Mariners starting rotation here on Franchise Phenoms.  He also holds a special place in the hearts of White Sox fans for his role in ending their franchise’s World Series drought.

As his JAWS ratings would suggest, Freddy Garcia clearly falls below the standard for Hall of Fame starting pitchers.  Garcia is probably one-and-done on the ballot.  At the same time, he will be fondly remembered by the fan bases of at least two franchises, and that is what we’re all about at Franchise Phenoms.

24.  Derek Lowe

JAWS:  31.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Derek Lowe was selected by the Seattle Mariners in the 8th round of the 1991 draft out of Ford High School in Dearborn, MI.  Lowe made his big league debut with the Mariners in 1997.  That July, he was traded with Jason Varitek to the Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb.  Slocumb made minimal impact on the Mariners while Lowe and Varitek would become Franchise Phenoms for Boston.

In eight seasons with the Red Sox, Lowe would go on to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history.  Lowe began his career as a versatile, mult-inning arm before becoming closer, and eventually shifting to the starting rotation for the second half of his Red Sox career.  He was a two-time All Star, once as a reliever, and once as a starter.  He led the league in saves in 2000, and finished third in the Cy Young voting as a starter in 2002.  In 1037 innings, he posted 127 ERA+ and 19.4 bWAR.

Lowe was the winning pitcher in Game Four of the 2004 World Series, as the Red Sox finished off a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals and dispelled the Curse of the Bambino. 

Following the 2004 season, Lowe signed a four-year contract to join the Los Angeles Dodgers.  With the Dodgers, Lowe was largely the same pitcher he had been in Boston.  He was a key piece of L.A.’s staring rotation, throwing strikes and racking up ground balls.  He finished his Dodgers tenure with 120 ERA+ and 13.3 bWAR.  Lowe helped the Dodgers to the postseason in 2006 and 2008.  

In 2009, heading into his age-36 season, Lowe signed a free agent deal to join the Atlanta Braves.  Although he remained durable, he was less effective during his three years in Atlanta.  In 2012-2013, Lowe concluded his career by bouncing from Cleveland to the Yankees, and finally to Texas.

Hall of Fame?

Derek Lowe holds an important place in Red Sox history.  His role on the 2004 World Series winners will ensure him a place in Red Sox lore.

Lowe had an excellent 11-year stretch in Boston and L.A. where he was above-average in every season but one.  For all of his reliability and sustained success, he was seldom dominant.  Aside from 1999-2000 out of the bullpen, and his third-place Cy Young finish as a starter in 2002, Lowe was most often not recognized among the very best pitchers of his generation.

Like Garcia, Lowe falls well short of the Hall of Fame standards for staring pitchers and figures to have a short stay on the ballot.  His immortal status in Boston will remain his true legacy.

23.  Kevin Youkilis

JAWS:  31.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Kevin Youkilis was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Cincinnati.  As a minor leaguer, Youkilis was made famous beyond his prospect status when he was dubbed “The Greek god of Walks” in Moneyball.  

Youkilis made his big league debut for the Red Sox in May, 2004.  He played a supporting role in the team’s improbable run to its first World Series championship since 1918. 

Youkilis was a slightly above-average hitter from 2004-2007.  His plate discipline translated nicely, but he failed to show the home run power desired for a corner player.  

In the 2007 playoffs, Youkilis was a monster.  He hit .500/.576/.929 in Boston’s seven game series win over the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS.  The Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the World Series to earn their second championship in four seasons.

Then the power started to show.  From 2008-2011, Youk was one of the best offensive players in baseball.  He averaged 142 OPS+ and 5.5 bWAR per season during that stretch.  He was an All Star in three of those four seasons, and twice got MVP votes finishing third in 2008, and sixth in 2009.  With Youk as a driving force, Boston made the playoffs again in both 2008 and 2009.

By 2012, the 33-year-old Youkilis was slowing down.  The Red Sox traded him to the White Sox in June.  He was better in Chicago, but nothing like the player he had been the previous four years.  He played 28 games with the Yankees in 2013, but injuries severely limited him.  Youk played 21 games in Japan in 2014, but never returned to the big leagues.  

Hall of Fame?

Kevin Youkilis enjoyed a surprisingly short 10-year career in the Major Leagues.  His distinctive nickname, facial hair, and batting stance all contributed to a cult following in Red Sox Nation.  96% of his career bWAR was accumulated in parts of nine seasons with the Red Sox.  He was a three-time All Star, and won a Gold Glove at first base in 2007.

I will confess to being mildly startled by the realization that Youk played more career games at first base than at third.  His career 123 OPS+ would look considerably better at the hot corner.  Either way, a 10-year career is seldom enough to earn a place in Cooperstown.  

Like Garcia and Lowe, Kevin Youkilis was a great player who will be fondly remembered for his role on championship teams, but not a Hall of Famer.

22.  Omar Vizquel

JAWS:  36.2 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Omar Vizquel is the first truly interesting case in this exercise.  Now in his second year on the ballot, Vizquel showed nicely last winter, earning 37% of the vote.  As an 11-time Gold Glover and three-time All Star, Vizquel clearly has some staying power.

Vizquel is one of the best defensive players in baseball history.  What makes his candidacy interesting is that it is almost entirely dependent on defense. 

In his 24-year career, Omar Vizquel was an 82 OPS+ hitter.  He was an above-average offensive player just twice.  This type of candidate is rare, and Vizquel figures to be one of the more polarizing figures on the ballot in coming years.

As a result, I am devoting an entire separate piece to asking the question:  Is Omar Vizquel a Hall of Famer?

21.  Placido Polanco

JAWS:  36.9 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Placido Polanco was born and raised in the Dominican Republic.  After finishing high school in Santo Domingo, Polanco came to the United States.  He attended Miami-Dade Junior College in Florida where he was drafted twice.  First, in the 49th round by the White Sox in 1993, and then again in the 19th round by the Cardinals the following year.

At the tender age of 22, Polanco made his big league debut with the Cardinals during Mark McGwire’s home run chase in 1998.  Never much of an offensive player in the minors, it took Polanco time to acclimate to the big leagues as well.  He was a part-time player until 2001, and failed to post a single above-average offensive line in his five seasons with the Cardinals.

At the 2002 trade deadline, Polanco joined left-hander Bud Smith as the headliners in a package that landed Phillies Franchise Phenom Scott Rolen in St. Louis.  Polanco elevated his offensive game in Philadelphia by gradually unlocking a little more power and patience.  He became a consistently above-average hitter with the Phillies from 2002-2005.

In June, 2005 the Phillies traded Polanco to the Detroit Tigers for closer Ugueth Urbina.  Polanco had the best seasons of his career in Detroit from 2005-2009.  In 2007 he earned All Star, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger honors for the first time in his career at 31 years old.  He won his second Gold Glove at second base for the Tigers in 2009.

Polanco returned to Philadelphia from 2010-2012.  In 2011, he made his second All Star team and won his third Gold Glove, this time at third base.  He finished his career with the Marlins in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Placido Polanco played 16 seasons in the big leagues.  He was most often an average player, but occasionally a star. 

Never the best player on his own team, much less the league, Polanco figures to join Garcia, Lowe, Youkilis, and probably 10 others as one-and-done’s on this year’s ballot.

Red Sox Mount RushWAR: Ted Williams

The Mount RushWAR series will allow us to take a more in-depth look at the careers of the four players with the highest bWAR in each franchise’s history.

Ted Williams (123.1)

Background

Ted Williams was born and raised in San Diego, California.  A graduate of Herbert Hoover High School, Williams got his start in pro-ball right in his own back yard with the San Diego Padres, then members of the Double-A Pacific Coast League.  

In 1937, while playing for the Padres, Williams was identified as a big league prospect.  White Sox Mount RushWAR honoree, Eddie Collins, then the General Manager of the Boston Red Sox, acquired Williams from the Padres after his age-18 season. 

Williams spent his age-19 season dominating the Double-A American Association for the Minneapolis Millers.  He hit .366 with 43 homers, placing himself firmly on the big club’s radar for 1939.

Red Sox Career

Immediate Impact

Williams made the opening day roster for Boston in 1939.  The 20-year-old outfielder was as good as advertised.  Williams finished third in the league with 160 OPS+, and led the league with 145 RBI.  He finished fourth in the MVP voting after his rookie season.  Boston won 89 games, but finished second to the Yankees.

In 1940, Williams was again the third best hitter in the American League at 161 OPS+.  He led the league with a .442 OBP, and 134 runs.  Williams was selected for what would be the first of 17 seasons as an American League All Star.  Boston finished in fourth place at 82-72.

.406

1941 would turn out to be among the most important years in United States history.  With the nation drifting closer to eventual entry into World War II, baseball provided a welcomed distraction from world affairs.  Ted Williams was right at the center of one of baseball’s most magical summers.

Williams got off to a slow start with just 19 plate appearances through the team’s first nine games in April.  By the end of the month, he was playing every day, and on the verge of one of the hottest streaks of his career.  

He hit .436/.540/.683 in the month of May.  He finished the month in the midst of a 23-game hitting streak that would carry into June.  

His season batting average crested on June 6 at .436.  Although he couldn’t hold that pace, he was still hitting .404 at the end of the month.  

July brought the “low point” in his season.  His average dipped to .393 on July 19.  He got back to .400 on July 25, and would seldom drop below that magic number the rest of the season.

From July 25 onward, Williams finished the season on a torrid pace.  Over his final 64 games, he hit .417/.594/.804 with 19 homers, and an incredible 87 walks against just 15 strikeouts.  

After a 4-17 stretch in late-September, his average dipped to .39955 on September 27.  With the Red Sox eliminated from playoff contention, destined to yet again finish second to the Yankees, manager Joe Cronin gave Williams the option to sit out the final day and hang onto his rounded .400 average.  Williams famously elected to play, finishing 6-8 on the day, and .406 on the season.

On some levels, Williams’s season is held in even greater esteem in modern times than it was as it happened.  Joe DiMaggio’s record-setting 56-game hitting streak the same summer for the first-place Yankees stole some of Williams’s thunder.  There have been 27 times a player ended his season with an average above .400.  It had been 11 years since Bill Terry hit .401 for the New York Giants, and it was not apparent that Williams would be perhaps the last to accomplish the feat. 

Before the War

1942 was yet another excellent season for Williams.  Four seasons into his big league career, it was clear that Williams was one of the game’s greatest players.  

From 1939-1942, Williams averaged .356/.481/.642, 190 OPS+, and 8.6 bWAR per season.  He was a three-time All Star with two batting championships, and two home run titles to his credit.  He had finished second in the MVP voting back-to-back seasons in 1941-1942.  

World War II

With the United States military embroiled in the Second World War, Williams enlisted in the navy’s aviation program in 1943.  He spent the next three years serving in the armed forces.  Williams initially trained as a naval pilot before joining the Marine Corps.  Upon joining the Marines, Williams was quickly assigned duties as a flight instructor during the late stages of the Pacific War.  

Although Williams never served in combat, his commitment to the service of his country would become a hallmark of his legacy.  

1946:  Return to Baseball

The Red Sox struggled mightily without their star slugger from 1943-1945 and failed to finish above .500 during that stretch. Following the end of the War in 1945, Williams returned to the Red Sox for the 1946 season.

Now in his age-27 season, Williams proved he was still among the game’s best players despite his time away from the game.  Williams was the best player in the American League in 1946.  He led the league in runs (142), walks (156), OBP (.497), slugging (.667), OPS+ (215), and bWAR (10.9).  

Williams joined fellow Red Sox Franchise Phenoms Bobby Doerr, and Dom DiMaggio, to form the core of a Red Sox offense that led the league by scoring 88 more runs than the next closest team.  The Red Sox won 104 games to cruise to the American League pennant.  

In the 1946 World Series, Boston faced the St. Louis Cardinals.  Williams hit just .200/.333/.200, and the Cardinals took the series in seven games.

Ted Williams was the American League MVP in 1946.  The Red Sox would never play another postseason game during the Ted Williams era.

1947-1951

Coming off a brilliant MVP season, Williams proved he had plenty left in the tank.  Over the next five years, Williams averaged .340/.483/.619, 184 OPS+, and 7.7 bWAR per season.  He won two more batting titles, and twice more led the league in homers during this stretch.  

Williams was an All Star in each of the six seasons between his two stints in the armed forces. 

He added his second MVP award in 1949 when he led the league in runs (150), doubles (39), homers (43), RBI (159), walks (162), OBP (.490), slugging (.650), OPS+ (191), and bWAR (9.1).  

The Korean War

The Korean War began on June 25, 1950 when the North Korean Army invaded South Korea. With the government of the United States committed to combating the spread of communism even in foreign nations, American military involvement in the region quickly escalated.

As the war expanded, the Marines recalled experienced pilots to active duty.  Williams got his orders just six games into the 1952 season.  After training to operate the new planes, Williams headed to Korea on active duty in early 1953.  Williams flew 39 combat missions in Korea and, on a few occasions, was lucky to return alive.

Williams was sent home in June after a series of illnesses.  He was formally discharged when a cease-fire went into effect the following month.  Williams was selected as an All Star in 1953 despite playing just 37 games after he returned home.  In total, he had just 122 plate appearances in 43 games sandwiched around his time in the service in 1952-1953. 

“The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived”

Ted Williams returned to the Red Sox full-time in 1954.  Although he increasingly dealt with injuries and physical ailments into his late-30s, it was this stretch of his career where Williams cemented his place in baseball history.

In the final seven seasons of his career from 1954-1960, Williams was every bit the hitter he had always been.  He averaged .337/.477/.624, 189 OPS+, and 5.3 bWAR per season.  He made the All Star team in each season, and finished seventh, or better, in the MVP race five times.  Even in his final season at age 41, Williams produced 190 OPS+ in 113 games.   

Legacy

In 19 seasons with the Red Sox, Ted Williams was an All Star in 17 seasons.  
A two-time MVP who twice won the Triple Crown, Williams is in a category all by himself in Boston lore.

He is Boston’s career leader in average (.344), OBP (.482), slugging (.634), homers (521), walks (2021), and OPS+ (190).

His advanced knowledge and understanding of the game served as the foundation of a legend that goes beyond being the very best at what he did.  Williams literally wrote the book on hitting.  

His career bWAR ranks 14th in history despite missing nearly five full seasons during his prime while serving in the military.  Williams has the highest OBP in big league history, and ranks second in slugging.  Any way you slice it, Teddy Ballgame is one of the greatest players in baseball history.

Remembering Ted Williams: A Marine Fighter Pilot

Ted Williams on SABR

American Masters:  Ted Williams.  Trailer from PBS

Chase Utley: Hall of Famer?

Philadelphia Phillies Franchise Phenom Chase Utley was released from his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday.  The move was meant to facilitate his retirement.  To commemorate the end of his great career, we take a look back at one of the greatest players in Phillies franchise history.  We will also explore where Utley’s legacy leaves him in the history of our great game.

For more on recently retired greats, check out my piece on Joe Mauer’s Hall of Fame case.

Background

Chase Utley was born and raised in Southern California.  Utley was selected by his hometown team, the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second round of the 1997 amateur draft out of Polytechnic High School in Long Beach.  Rather than sign with the Dodgers, he enrolled at UCLA.  Following his junior season for the Bruins, Utley was selected 15th overall by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2000 draft.

Utley quickly rose through the Philadelphia farm system.  By 2002, the 23-year-old infielder was in Triple-A, clearly among the best prospects in the minors.  

Time Lost

The Phillies sent Utley back to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin 2003 in what would prove to be a foolish maneuver.  He dominated the International League during his second stint in Triple-A while the Phillies received brutal production from a pair of veteran third basemen.  Utley held his own in a 43-game trial, most of which was in August and September.  The Phillies won 86 games, and finished five out of the postseason.

Inexplicably, the Phillies jerked him around again at the start of the 2004 season.  Utley spent April back in Triple-A before finally earning a permanent place with the big club.  David Bell was better at third than he had been the year before, and Placido Polanco was steady at second.  Utley managed just 287 plate appearances in the big leagues in his age 25 season.  The Phillies again won 86 games, this time finishing six out of the playoffs. 

In light of the career that Utley went on to have, it is fair to wonder how much different Phillies history may have been if they had committed to him sooner.  For a team in playoff contention for most of 2003-2004, an earlier emergence for one of the greatest players in franchise history could have swung the balance in their favor.  Unfortunately, we will never know.

Phillies Career

The Phillies finally committed to Utley more completely in 2005.  
Polanco was dealt to Detroit in June, and second base in Philadelphia belonged to Chase Utley.  In 147 games, he hit .291/.376/.540, good for 132 OPS+.  He received some down ballot MVP votes at the conclusion of the year.  The team’s inexcusable decision to stick with David Bell through his second miserable season in three years probably cost them the playoffs.  With 88 wins, they finished one game out of the Wild Card, and two games out of the Division lead.

2006 would be the sixth straight 80+ win season, none of which resulted in a playoff appearance.  Utley made his first All Star team and led the league with 131 runs.  He also won his first Silver Slugger, and finished seventh in the MVP voting.  With 85 wins, the Phillies were three games out of the Wild Card.

Getting Over The Hump

Following an extended run of respectable mediocrity, better days were ahead for the Phillies starting in 2007.  Chase Utley would be right at the center of things. 

From 2007-2011, the Phillies won five straight division championships.  Utley hit .290/.386/.583, 132 OPS+, and averaged 6.9 bWAR during that stretch.  On teams littered with some of the greatest players in franchise history, Chase Utley was arguably the best of them all.

2008

The 2007 Phillies won the NL East, but were swept in the NLDS by the Rockies.  With the roster largely intact, Philadelphia repeated as division champs in 2008.  Franchise Phenoms Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins were excellent.  Ryan Howard was still among the game’s most feared sluggers, and Brad Lidge was arguably the best reliever in baseball.

On a team loaded with talent, Chase Utley was clearly the best player on the roster.  2008 was Utley’s career year as his usual stellar offense was accompanied by perhaps the best defensive season of his career.  He finished with a career best 9.0 bWAR.

2008 Playoffs

In the NLDS the Phillies were matched up with Wild Card team, the Milwaukee Brewers.  Although Utley was the least productive regular in the Phillies lineup, his teammates carried him.  Philadelphia won the series in four games and rolled into the NLCS.

In the NLCS, the Phillies had home field advantage over the NL West Champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers.  With their ace Cole Hamels rested, and at the height of his powers, Philadelphia was at a decided advantage.  

After a rough NLDS, Utley was excellent against the Dodgers.   
Hamels controlled Game One, holding L.A. to two runs in seven innings.  It was Utley’s two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth that tied the game.  Left fielder Pat Burrell followed suit two batters later to put the Phillies on top for good.

Utley walked four times in five trips to the plate in Game Two.  His teammates slugged out an 8-5 win to take commanding position in the series. 

Out west, the Dodgers took Game Three.  The Phillies answered back in Game Four.  Utley had three hits and an RBI in the win.  In Game Five, Utley was 0-4 but walked twice and scored.  Hamels allowed one run over seven innings, and the Phillies clinched their first World Series trip since 1980.  Utley hit .353/.522/.647 in the series to lead the offense.

2008 World Series

Coming off an incredible Game Seven victory over the Red Sox in the ALCS, the Tampa Bay Rays were riding hot.  Themselves winners of 97 games in the regular season, the Rays were loaded with some of their own franchise greats.

Hamels was rested enough to start Game One.  Utley delivered the first blow with a two-run homer off Scott Kazmir in the top of the first.  Hamels allowed two runs in seven innings before turning it over to the bullpen.  Philadelphia took the opener 3-2.  

James Shields held the Phillies at bay in Game Two.  Tampa won 4-2 to even the series.

Utley delivered again in Game Three.  This time it was a solo homer off Matt Garza to lead off the bottom of the sixth to extend the Phillies lead to 3-1.  They held on to win 5-4.

The Philadelphia offense exploded in Game Four behind Joe Blanton.  Ryan Howard homered twice, and drove in five runs.  Utley walked twice and scored a pair of runs.  The Phillies won 10-2 to take a 3-1 series lead.  

Game Five featured Hamels against Kazmir again.  Hamels cemented his place as the World Series MVP allowing just two runs over six innings.  In a game that was ultimately decided by the bullpens, Philadelphia won 4-3 to secure their second championship in franchise history.  Utley hit just .167 in the series, but homered twice, walked five times, ultimately leading the Phillies with five runs scored.  

Repeat?

The 2009 Phillies returned the core of their championship team.  The additions of veterans Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee as well as the emergence of J.A. Happ helped infuse the team with new blood as well.  With 93 wins, the Phillies took their third straight NL East title.  

For the fourth straight season, Chase Utley was an All Star and received MVP votes.  His 8.2 bWAR was only slightly lower than his 2008 career year.  His consistently excellent play was once again a driving force in the team’s success.

In a series that featured three one-run games, the Phillies defeated the Rockies in four games in the NLDS.  Utley hit .429/.556/.643 to help lead the way.

For the second straight season, the Phillies met the Dodgers in the NLCS.  Utley struggled, but still managed to reach base eight times in five games.  The offense and starting rotation carried a suspect bullpen in blowout wins in the third and fifth games.  The Phillies took the series in five to win their second straight National League pennant.  

In the World Series, the Phillies were matched up with the New York Yankees.  Utley was otherworldly.  In six games, he hit .286/.400/1.048.  His five homers, seven runs, and eight RBI were tops for the series.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff was less impressive.  The Yankees took the series in six to dethrone the defending champs.

Super Teams (2010-2011)

With their remarkable core of position players still under team control, and nearing the end of their respective primes, the clock was ticking after 2009.  To their great credit, Phillies management went all in.  In December 2009, they traded for another ace in Roy Halladay.

When the 2010 team made a late push to close the gap in the division to 3.5 games in late July, the front office acted again.  They shipped three talented young players, including Happ, to the Astros for veteran ace Roy Oswalt.

With three of the best pitchers in baseball on their staff, the Phillies finally overtook the Braves in September.  They finished the season with 97 wins and their fourth straight NL East title.  

2010 Playoffs

Utley was yet again at the heart of things when the Phillies swept the Reds in the NLDS.  His three runs, and four RBI led the way.  When Roy Halladay tossed a no-hitter in Game One, it seemed the Phillies might be the favorites heading deeper into October.

Unfortunately, the Phillies ran into another loaded pitching staff in the NLCS.  The San Francisco Giants matched the Phillies pitch for pitch.  After three one-run victories, the Giants sent the Phillies home in six games.

2011

With the core of their offense returning, and one of the most talented starting rotations in modern history, the 2011 Phillies were a juggernaut.  At 3.8 bWAR, Utley ranked just fifth on the team behind the trio of aces Lee, Halladay, and Hamels as well as center fielder Shane Victorino.  Their 102-60 record is the best in franchise history.  

When the most talented team in franchise history lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in five games in the NLDS, it was a crushing blow.  A veteran team with dominant starting pitching, and a core of position players who had won rings just a few years before, the Phillies were widely considered the favorites in 2011.  For his part, Utley was excellent leading the Phillies offense with a .438/.571/.688 line in the series.

It Ended Without Us Knowing

With the bulk of the team returning yet again in 2012, it seemed the Phillies were as good a bet as anyone to head back to the postseason.  Then the season began, and it quickly became apparent that 2012 was a new year.  By June 12, the Phillies were 9.5 games out.  They never led the division after opening day.

Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz were still solid on offense.  Hamels and Lee were still among the games best starters.  Unfortunately, everyone else struggled.  The remaining core group of veterans looked significantly older.  The optimism that persisted even after their disappointing loss in 2011 was quickly gone as the team had to confront the prospect of an expensive core of veterans aging in a less than graceful fashion.

Utley remained one of the top second basemen in the game in 2013-2014.  Most efforts to patch the roster failed, however.  The core of some of the greatest teams in Phillies history was depleted beyond repair.

In 2015, father time finally caught up to Utley as well.  After 73 rough games, the Phillies traded one of the greatest players in their history to the eventual NL West champion Dodgers in an under the radar August deal.

After Philadelphia

After moving to the Dodgers, Utley instantly went from being the face of a franchise to just another player.  He was acquired not to save the team, but to support it.  

From 2015-2018, Utley served as a semi-regular player, platoon option, and veteran leader in Los Angeles.  On a wonderfully deep and versatile roster, Utley was just one of the boys.  Still, he contributed to four straight division champions.  He even returned to the World Series in 2017 when the Dodgers were defeated by the Houston Astros.

Utley announced his intention to retire after the 2018 season before it concluded.  The Dodgers made the World Series for the second straight season in 2018, but were defeated by the Boston Red Sox in five games.  Utley was left off the playoff roster.

Legacy

I like Chase Utley as a Hall of Fame candidate.  At the same time, I suspect that many modern baseball fans have severely underappreciated him.  There are probably a variety of factors at play here.

His particular contributions were diverse and wide-ranging.  Chase Utley was good at just about everything on a baseball field.  At the same time, he was not elite at most of those things outside of the occasional peak season in one skill or another.  Because he was above-average or better at just about everything, he was always great even when it wasn’t totally obvious.

Beyond his sneaky greatness, or perhaps because of it, Utley was often not identified as the best player on his own team.  Howard and Rollins each won NL MVP awards in seasons when Chase Utley was actually the best player on the Phillies.  

Finally, his delayed ascension to big league stardom is probably still a factor even after a stellar 16-year career.  Utley didn’t debut until he was 24.  He wasn’t an everyday player until he was 26.  Most Hall of Fame players simply get started younger.  That lost time cost him some important counting stats in the end.

Chase Utley was a six-time All Star and won four Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes four times, but never finished higher than seventh.  Viewing him in the context of his place among the all-time Phillies greats might be the most favorable light in which to appreciate his excellent career.

Utley is ranked as the 11th best second baseman in history by JAWS.  He comes in right above the current average for Hall of Famers at the position.  His peak was fairly short by Hall of Fame standards, but that shouldn’t detract from his case.  As a great player on great teams, his intangibles should earn him any benefit of the doubt.

Chase Utley’s Career Highlights from Major League Baseball


Joe Mauer: Hall of Famer?

Minnesota Twins all-time great Joe Mauer announced his retirement on Friday.  To commemorate the end of his great career, we take a look back at one of the greatest players in Twins franchise history.  We will also explore where Mauer’s legacy leaves him in the history of our great game.

Background

Joe Mauer was born and raised in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota.  A legendary high school athlete for Cretin-Derham Hall High School in St. Paul, Mauer was highly accomplished in multiple sports.  As a quarterback, Mauer was committed to play for Florida State.  For all of his gridiron prowess, Mauer’s destiny was on the diamond.

With the first pick in the 2001 MLB draft, the Minnesota Twins were faced with a dilemma.  The consensus top prospect in the draft was Southern California rigth-hander Mark Prior.  A dominant arm assured to arrive quickly in the majors, Prior was at the top of virtually every evaluator’s list that spring.  When the Twins balked at Prior’s contract demands, they turned to the elite prep catcher in their own backyard instead.

Drafted into a scenario fraught with potential downside, Mauer had much to prove.  The reports on his tools included an elite swing, athleticism and plus, or better, tools on the defensive side.  Still, the pick felt to many observers like little more than a penny-pinching maneuver from the Twins.  Prior’s quick ascent to the big leagues less than a year after being drafted didn’t do Mauer, or the Twins, any favors either.

As Prior quickly became a household name, Mauer methodically worked his way through the minors.  While Prior finished third in the Cy Young race in 2003, Mauer finished his age-20 season at Double-A New Britain.

Getting Settled In

Despite the fact that Mauer was Baseball America’s top prospect heading into the 2004 season, it was unclear whether he would ever live up to his draft position, or live down the reputation of being selected before Prior.  Mauer made his debut in 2004, but struggled with injuries and played just 35 games at the big league level.

In 2005, Mauer was healthy and immediately proved himself to be an above-average big league catcher.  He hit .294/.372/.411, 107 OPS+ and produced 2.8 bWAR.  By this point, it was clear that even if the Twins had not taken the best player in the draft, Mauer would be a fixture in Minnesota for years to come.

Breakout and Prime

2006 was Joe Mauer’s coming-out party.  Mauer hit .347/.429/.507, 144 OPS+ and won the American League batting title.  At 5.8 bWAR, Mauer was the most valuable catcher in baseball.  He was selected to the All Star team for the first time, and won his first Silver Slugger.  

Mauer’s breakout was well timed with those of a number of his teammates.  First baseman Justin Morneau won the MVP in 2006.   Left-hander Johan Santana won his second Cy Young Award.  22-year-old lefty Francisco Liriano came out of nowhere to join the rotation.  He posted an even better ERA+ than Santana.  Closer Joe Nathan was arguably the best reliever in the game. 

The Twins surged to 96 wins and the American League Central championship before being swept in the ALDS by the Oakland Athletics.  Despite the heartbreaking end to an excellent season, the five best players on the 2006 Twins were under 30 and returning.  The future was bright in Minnesota with Mauer leading the way.

In a regrettable twist of fate, 2006 was also the last time Mark Prior pitched in the Major Leagues.  A series of injuries held him to just 43.2 innings that season, and kept him from ever returning to a big league mound.  Prior was a brilliant supernova whose 16.6 career bWAR would still rank fourth best in his draft class despite not pitching after age 25.  The top pick, Joe Mauer, would end up being the top player in the 2001 draft after all.

Mauer came back to earth a little in 2007.  Although his underlying skills were well intact, his BABIP dropped 45 points and his overall line suffered.  He finished the year at 118 OPS+ with 3.9 bWAR.  Morneau and Santana regressed as well.  Liriano missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was never quite the same again.  The Twins finished 79-83.

Baseball’s Best Backstop

With Santana headed towards a mega-contract in free agency, Minnesota dealt him to the Mets in February, 2008.  Joe Mauer was now, officially, the face of his hometown franchise.  Mauer responded with a stretch that included some of the best baseball of his career.

Still just 25 years old, Mauer won his second batting title in 2008.  He hit .328/.413/.451, 134 OPS+ and produced 5.6 bWAR. He made his second All Star team, won his second Silver Slugger, and his first Gold Glove.  Still the preeminent catcher in the game, Mauer finished fourth in the MVP race.  The Twins rebounded to win 88 games, but lost a Game 163 tiebreaker to the White Sox to narrowly miss the playoffs.

2009 MVP

Mauer’s career-year came the following season.  In 2009, Mauer led the American League in each of the triple-slash categories with a .365/.444/.587 line.  His 171 OPS+ was also tops in the league.  For the second straight year, Mauer was an All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover.  He received all but one first-place vote for MVP. 

The Twins won 87 games, which was enough to win the Central this time around.  Unfortunately, they were swept in the ALDS for the second time in four seasons, this time by the New York Yankees.  

Back to the Playoffs

The 2010 Minnesota Twins repeated as AL Central champions, this time winning 94 games.  Once again, Mauer was the best player on a division champion.  He hit .327/.402/.469, good for 140 OPS+ and 5.9 bWAR.  For the third straight season, Mauer was an All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover. 

Still an OBP machine, Mauer was the 10th best hitter in the American League in 2010.  Notably, his power output declined precipitously.  The Twins had moved into their new home ballpark at Target Field, and Mauer was impacted more than any other player.  After hitting 28 homers during his MVP campaign in 2009, he hit just nine in 2010.  

For the second straight season, the Twins met the Yankees in the ALDS.  For the second straight season, they were dispatched in three games.

A Dark Age in Minnesota

2011 marked the beginning of a brutal stretch for the Twins.  Coming off back-to-back division championships, there was reason for optimism heading into the season, but it quickly faded.  The team cratered in every facet of the game and finished with the worst record in the American League.  

For his part, Mauer played just 82 games in 2011.  Knee and shoulder injuries combined with a virus conspired to leave Mauer battling to get healthy all season.  He was never quite right and produced just 102 OPS+.

Healthy again in 2012, Mauer proved he was still a star.  He produced 140 OPS+ on the strength of a league-leading .416 OBP.  He was selected to the All Star team for the fifth time.  A healthy Mauer was not enough to save a brutal starting rotation, and the Twins were again the worst team in the American League.

2013 was more of the same for Mauer and the Twins.  The 30-year-old backstop produced 142 OPS+, making him the eighth best hitter in the A.L.  Mauer was once again an All Star and Silver Slugger.  The Twins continued to struggle, winning just 66 games.  

Decline Phase

Unbeknownst to the baseball world, Joe Mauer’s best days were behind him by the end of 2013.  A concussion suffered during the 2013 season would mark the beginning of a difficult final five seasons for the franchise icon.

To ease the burden, and limit the physical risk to their superstar, the Twins moved Mauer to first base full-time in 2014.  The move largely had the desired effect on his availability.  Mauer averaged 136 games over his final five seasons after averaging just 123 over his previous five.  He continued to battle injuries, but was mostly available.

It quickly became clear that Mauer’s was not the same player, however.  The injuries, particularly the aftereffects of his concussions, took their toll.  A career 135 OPS+ hitter through 2013, Mauer averaged just 105 OPS+ from 2014-2018.  His contact and on-base skills, once elite, were now merely above-average.  His power, initially dampened by the move to Target Field, all but evaporated.

The Twins averaged just 75 wins per season during this stretch.  Outside of a surprise 85-win season that ended in a wild card game loss to the Yankees in 2017, Minnesota was seldom relevant during Mauer’s final years.

Joe Mauer announced his retirement in November, 2018 at 35 years old.  He played his entire career for his hometown Twins.

Legacy

Through 2013, Mauer boasted a career line of .323/.405/.468, 135 OPS+, and averaged 6.2 bWAR per 650 plate appearances.  He had 1414 hits, 105 homers, 634 RBI, and more walks than strikeouts for his career.  Joe Mauer was a surefire Hall of Famer through his age-30 season.

Then the injuries set in.  Every aspect of Mauer’s game was negatively impacted by the physical beating he took during his 20s.  It is now clear that the concussions, especially, chipped away at one of the greatest talents of his generation.

Mauer’s Hall of Fame candidacy likely rests solely on the extent to which the voters consider him a catcher.  With 921 career appearances behind the plate, Mauer played there more than anywhere else.  He also made 913 appearances as a first baseman or designated hitter.  

Considered solely as a catcher, Mauer should be viewed as a slam dunk.  Notably, JAWS ranks him as the 7th best catcher in history and above the average for Hall of Famers at the position.  

If voters even partially penalize him for his time spent at first base, dramatic decline, or overall short career, his candidacy could be in jeopardy.  When compared with first basemen, Mauer falls well short of the overall standard required for enshrinement.  While it would be unfair to consider him primarily a first baseman, it’s not clear whether the voters will consider him mostly a catcher.

For my money, Joe Mauer is a Hall of Famer.  He was the best catcher in baseball for nearly a decade.  While it would have been better for baseball to see him have a more just decline phase, it wasn’t in the cards.  Given the choice, I like peak level heroics in my Hall of Famers, even if they don’t necessarily age all that well. 

Rather than focus on what didn’t go right, I prefer to remember Joe Mauer as one of the greatest catchers of my lifetime.

Sixteen years after no. 1 pick, no regrets for Twins or Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer Lived Up to the Hype

Joe Mauer Career Highlights from Major League Baseball

All-Time Red Sox Team

Next up Franchise Phenoms is the All-Time Red Sox Team.  Boston follows the White Sox, Phillies, and Rockies as fourth up in our series.

Franchise Overview

The Red Sox were founded in 1901 as a charter member of the American League.  Only eight National League franchises have played more seasons than the Red Sox.

For much of the middle portion of their existence, Red Sox history was marked by disappointment and unfulfilled promise.  Boston famously did not win a World Series from 1918-2004.  They made the playoffs 10 times during that period, including four trips to the fall classic.  Boston fans gradually became accustomed to having their hearts ripped out in the most dramatic and agonizing fashion.

The total picture of Red Sox history is actually much prettier than the heartache in the middle.  The misery of Boston fans has been book-ended by two of the most impressive stretches of any franchise in history.  

The Red Sox are tied for the third most World Series championships in history with nine (1903, 1912, 1915, 1916, 1918, 2004, 2007, 2013, 2018).

Their .519 winning percentage is the fifth best all-time mark of any big league franchise.  

Boston has made the playoffs in 20.3 % of their seasons, the seventh highest percentage in history.

Red Sox fans may always measure their franchise against the long-term dominance of their rivals in New York.  Viewed in that context, there is still work to do.  At the same time, Boston’s history would be the envy of nearly every other fan-base in America.  Context is fun.

Hitters

Starting LineupNamePositionB/TbWAR/ 650OPS+Years Played
1.Wade Boggs3BL/R6.51421982-92
2.Ted WilliamsRF (LF)L/R8.21901939-60
3.Nomar GarciaparraSS (1B)R/R6.31331996-2004
4.David OrtizDH (1B)L/L4.21482003-16
5.Carl YastrzemskiCF (LF/1B)L/R4.51291961-83
6.Jim RiceLFR/R3.51281974-89
7.Dwight Evans1B (RF)R/R4.31271972-90
8.Carlton FiskCR/R6.01261969-80
9.Dustin Pedroia2BR/R5.01132006-Present
Bench
OFHarry HooperRFL/R3.51141909-20
OFDom DiMaggioCFR/R3.31101940-53
INBobby Doerr2BR/R4.21151937-51
INRico PetrocelliSS/3BR/R4.21081963-76
CJason VaritekCS/R2.8981997-2011

Fenway Phenoms

Not surprisingly, for a team that has had the long-term historical success of the Red Sox, the All-Time Red Sox Team is one of the most impressive rosters in the entire exercise.  The All-Time Red Sox hitters have the seventh highest average OPS+.

Boston’s all-time starting nine is an impressive collection of talent and names.  

“The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived”

Any list of the greatest Red Sox in history has to begin with Ted Williams.  A two-time MVP who twice won the Triple Crown, Williams is in a category all by himself in Boston lore.  He was an All Star in 17 of the 19 seasons he played for the Red Sox. 

His career bWAR ranks 14th in history despite missing significant time in his prime while serving in the military.  Williams has the highest OBP in big league history (.482) and ranks second in slugging (.634).  Any way you slice it, Teddy Ballgame is one of the greatest players in baseball history.

Red Sox Royalty

Like Williams, Carl Yastrzemski holds a special place in the hearts of Boston fans.  Yaz spent his entire 23-year career in Boston, earning All Star honors in 18 of those seasons.  In 1967, he propelled the Red Sox to the World Series.  He won the MVP and the Triple Crown that year, captivating Red Sox Nation.  He is probably more responsible for reversing the fortunes of one of the game’s great franchises than any other player.

Designated Hitter, David Ortiz is a similarly mythical figure in Boston history.  A 10-time All Star, Big Papi was one of the most feared sluggers of his generation.  The slayer of Boston’s postseason demons, his clutch-hitting feats are the stuff of baseball legend.  Ortiz has a chance to break the stigma against players who were primarily designated hitters making the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Famers Galore

Third baseman Wade Boggs was an eight-time All Star during his 11 years in Boston.  Perhaps the greatest pure hitter and on-base machine of his generation, Boggs won five batting titles, and led the league in OBP six times during his Red Sox career.  He was a solid defender as well, winning two Gold Gloves to boot.  

Carlton Fisk is one of the great catchers in big league history.  In 11 seasons in Boston, Pudge was a seven-time All Star as one of the best offensive catchers the game has ever seen.  His homer in Game Six of the 1975 World Series is one of the most iconic moments in baseball history.  He made the All Star team five more times as a member of the White Sox, where he can also lay claim to the title of best catcher in their franchise’s history.  

Left-fielder Jim Rice developed a reputation as one of the most feared sluggers of his day.  In 16 seasons with the Red Sox, Rice was an eight-time All Star.  He led the league in homers three times, and won the AL MVP in 1978.

The Rest of the Starters

Shortstop Nomar Garciaparra burst onto the scene as the 1997 AL Rookie of the Year.  Nomar was a two-time batting champion, and five-time All Star in Boston.  Nomar’s nine years in Boston represent one of the best offensive stretches for a shortstop in big league history.

Dwight Evans gets the nod at first base.  Dewey played 19 of his 20 seasons in Boston.  An excellent outfielder who won eight Gold Gloves in Boston’s difficult right field, Evans moves to first to accommodate Boston’s wealth of great outfielders.  He was a three-time All Star and two-time Silver Slugger as well.  A well-rounded player, he led the league in walks three times and homers, runs, and OBP once each.  

Second baseman Dustin Pedroia endeared himself to Red Sox fans the way few other players have.  Listed at just 5’9″, 175 pounds, Pedroia’s “Laser Show” was one of the top attractions on two World Series teams.  To date, Pedroia has made the All Star team four times.  He has also won four Gold Gloves, and a Silver Slugger with Boston.  He was the AL MVP in 2008 when he led the league in runs, hits, and doubles.

Bench

Hall of Fame right fielder Harry Hooper is part of a deep Boston bench.  A speed/OBP oriented offensive player, Hooper spent 12 years in Boston.  He received MVP votes in 1913-1914.  He is Boston’s career leader in triples (130).

Center fielder Dom DiMaggio played his entire 11-year career with the Red Sox.  He was a seven-time All Star despite missing his age 26-28 seasons in military service during World War II.  DiMaggio received MVP votes six times, including a 9th place finish in 1946.  He twice led the league in runs, and once each in triples and stolen bases.

Hall of Fame second baseman Bobby Doerr headlines the Boston bench.  With more power than a typical middle infielder, Doerr racked up nine All Star selections in 14 seasons with Boston.  He led the league in slugging in 1944.  Doerr received MVP votes eight times, finishing third in 1946.  

Rico Petrocelli spent 13 years in Boston, splitting his time between shortstop and third base.  A well-regarded defensive player who as occasionally excellent at the plate as well, Petrocelli was one of the more underrated players of his generation.  He was a two-time All Star, and received MVP votes three times.  In 1969, he clubbed 40 homers en route to an incredible 10.0 bWAR to lead the American League, but finished just 7th in the MVP race.

Jason Varitek gets the nod as the backup catcher.  As captain of the Red Sox for the final seven seasons of his 15-year career, Varitek was at the center of some of the best teams in Boston history including two World Series champions.  The switch-hitter was a three-time All Star who also pulled in Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards in 2005.  He received down-ballot MVP consideration three times.  

Pitchers

Starting RotationNameB/TERA+Years Played
1.Cy YoungR/R1471901-08
2.Pedro MartinezR/R1911998-2004
3.Roger ClemensR/R1451984-96
4.Jon LesterL/L1202006-14
5.Luis TiantR/R1191971-78
Bullpen
LRTim WakefieldR/R1061995-2011
RPBob StanleyR/R1191977-89
RPDerek LoweR/R1281998-2004
RPEllis KinderR/R1351948-55
SUDick RadatzR/R1471962-66
CLJonathan PapelbonR/R1972005-11

Starting Rotation

The Red Sox carry a truly elite collection of all-time pitching talent.  The 144 OPS+ average of their five starting pitchers is the best of any all-time team’s rotation.

All-Time Greats

The Name

The man whose name is synonymous with pitching excellence fronts Boston’s rotation.  Cy Young started his career with nine seasons for the now-defunct Cleveland Spiders, then two in St. Louis before coming to Boston in 1901.  In eight seasons with the Red Sox, Cy Young solidified his status as a big league legend. 

Young won the Triple Crown while pitching for Boston in 1901.  Overall, he led the league in wins three times, innings twice, ERA and strikeouts once each for the Red Sox.  Modern metrics view him favorably as well.  He led the league in FIP three times, WHIP four times, and strikeout-to-walk ratio five times during his time in Boston.  He eclipsed nine bWAR an incredible four times during his Boston years alone.  Cy Young remains baseball’s all-time leader in wins (511), starts (815), complete games (749), and innings (7356).

The Force

Name recognition gets Cy Young the ceremonial top spot in Boston’s rotation, but Pedro Martinez has a legitimate claim to the title of best Red Sox pitcher in history.  Pedro’s seven-year run in Boston is considered among the best stretches of any pitcher, in any era, in history.  His pinpoint control of some of the best stuff the game has ever seen often made him unhittable.

Like Cy Young himself, Pedro has a Triple Crown to his credit with the Red Sox in 1999.  Pedro was a four-time All Star in Boston.  He won back-to-back Cy Youngs in 1999-2000 and finished in the top-five four more times.  He also received MVP votes five times, including back-to-back top-five finishes in his Cy Young seasons. 

Martinez led the league in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, FIP, and K/9 in the same season four times with the Red Sox.  In a loaded pantheon of Boston starting pitchers, Pedro has the top strikeout and strikeout-walk rates in team history.  While he may not have the longevity of some of Boston’s other pitchers, there is little debate that he was the most dominant.

The Rocket

Roger Clemens spent the first 13 seasons of his 24-year career in Boston giving him the longest tenure of any member of the rotation.  With some of the most explosive stuff the game had seen in its history, Clemens became an icon nationwide.  He would go on to forge one of the most remarkable, and controversial, careers in big league history, and it all began in Boston.  

Clemens won the first of three Cy Young awards with Boston at age 23 in 1986 when he was also the MVP.  He backed it up with another Cy Young season in 1987 before winning his third in 1991.  Clemens also had three other top-six finishes with the Red Sox.  He earned MVP votes four times in Boston.  He was a five-time All Star for the Red Sox.

Clemens led the league in FIP six times as a member of the Red Sox.  He also paced in the A.L. in ERA, ERA+, and strikeout-to-walk ratio four times, and wins, strikeouts, and WHIP twice each.  Clemens leads Red Sox pitchers in wins, strikeouts, and shutouts for his career.  With the most pitching bWAR of any Red Sox hurler, we will dig deeper into his career in the Mount RushWAR series.

The Lefty

Jon Lester spent the first nine years of his career in Boston.  Although rarely recognized as among the very best pitchers in the game, his steadiness in big games proved invaluable on the road to two World Series titles in Boston.  Lester was a three-time All Star in Boston.  He finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2010 and 2014.  He led the league in K/9 in 2010.

The Cuban

One of the best Latin pitchers in history, Luis Tiant began his career in Cleveland before coming to Boston at age 30 in 1971.  At a time in his career when it appeared his best days were behind him, Tiant’s eight years in Boston were his renaissance.  In Boston, he was a two-time All Star who finished sixth or better in the Cy Young voting three times while earning MVP votes in each of those seasons.  Tiant led the league in ERA in 1972, and WHIP in 1973.  

Bullpen

As good as Boston’s all-time starting rotation is, the bullpen isn’t far behind.  The average ERA+ for Boston’s all-time relievers is tied for sixth best.

Jonathan Papelbon gets the nod at closer for the Red Sox.  His 197 ERA+ over seven seasons in Boston is the fourth best mark of any Franchise Phenom reliever.  Papelbon made four straight All Star teams from 2006-2009.  He earned saves in three of Boston’s four World Series wins, including the clincher, in 2007.  His 219 saves are the most in Red Sox history.

In five years with Boston, Dick Radatz was one of the most effective relievers in baseball.  He was utterly dominant for his first three seasons, and led the league in saves twice during that stretch.  He was a two-time All Star who twice finished in the top-10 in the MVP voting.  Radatz still has the lowest Hit/9 rate of any pitcher in Boston history.

Ellis Kinder began his Red Sox career as a starter, including a 23-win season in 1949.  He ultimately shifted to the bullpen, and was primarily a reliever for five of his eight years in Boston.  Kinder led the league in saves, and appearances, in 1951 and 1953.  He finished 11th, or better, in the MVP race three times.

Acquired from the Mariners in the same trade that brought fellow Franchise Phenom Jason Varitek to Boston, Derek Lowe would go on to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history.  Lowe began his career as a versatile, mult-inning arm before becoming closer, and eventually shifting to the starting rotation for the second half of his Red Sox career.  He was a two-time All Star, once as a reliever, and once as a starter.  He led the league in saves in 2000, and finished third in the Cy Young as a starter in 2002.

Bob Stanley spent his entire 13-year career in Boston, primarily as a reliever.  A versatile pitcher who regularly threw multiple innings out of the bullpen, Stanley was one of Boston’s most trusted arms for more than a decade.  He was a two-time All Star who twice finished seventh in the Cy Young voting, and earned MVP votes three times.  He led the league in ERA+ in 1982.  Stanley remains Boston’s all-time leader in games pitched (637) and games finished (377).

Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield rounds out the Boston pitching staff.  Although he was primarily a starter in his 17 seasons with Boston, he did make 160 relief appearances.  Wakefield finished third in the Cy Young voting in his 1995 Red Sox debut.  He would go on to be a critical piece of two World Series teams.  He was an All Star in 2009.  Wakefield is Boston’s all-time leader in games started (430) and innings (3006).