Astros Archives - Franchise Phenoms

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Billy Wagner

Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

25. Billy Wagner

JAWS: 23.7 (32.5 Average HOF RP)

Billy Wagner was drafted 12th overall by the Houston Astros out of Ferrum College in Virginia in 1993. Although he was largely deployed as a starter on his climb through the Astros system, Wagner’s future was in the bullpen. After a single hitter cameo in the big leagues in 1995, Wagner was in the big leagues for good by June of 1996.

Listed at 5-10, 180 pounds, the undersized lefty pumped upper 90s fastballs past hitters while seldom needing a second pitch. For 16 seasons, Billy Wagner was one of the top relief pitchers in the game.

In nine seasons with the Astros, Wagner was utterly dominant. In 464 games, he finished with a 171 ERA+. He is Houston’s all-time leader in saves (225), WHIP (1.04), K/9 (12.4), and H/9 (5.9). Wagner was a three-time All Star in Houston. In 1999 he was Rolaids Relief Man, and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He received MVP votes in 1999 and 2003.

Although the Astros made the playoffs four times with Wagner as their closer, the club was never able to advance past the NLDS.

Heading Back East

Following the 2003 season, with Wagner becoming more expensive, the Astros traded him to the Phillies. Wagner was better still in Philadelphia. In 2004-2005, Wagner posted a 240 ERA+. He was an All Star in 2005.

Wagner became a free agent after the 2005 season. He signed a four-year contract with the Mets. Wagner remained dominant during his early years in New York. He finished with a 183 ERA+ mark over 183 games for the Mets. He was twice an All Star, and finished sixth in the 2006 Cy Young voting.

The Mets made the post season once during Wagner’s tenure. In 2006, Wagner recorded two saves in the Mets sweep of the Dodgers in the NLDS. The Mets lost a heartbreaking seven-game NLCS to the eventual world champion Cardinals.

Wagner’s age-37 season was marred by injuries. He made just two appearances for the Mets in 2009 before he was dealt to the Red Sox in August.

He closed out his career with a dominant 2010 campaign with the Braves. Wagner made the All Star team for the seventh time in his career, and helped the Braves to a Wild Card berth.

Hall of Fame?

Billy Wagner is, without question, one of the best relievers in history. From 1996-2008, Wagner’s consistent dominance of the late innings in the National League was a given.

Wagner is now in his fifth season on the ballot. He is the top remaining eligible relief pitcher by JAWS. Unfortunately, he faces a steep uphill climb after earning just 16.7% of the vote in 2019.

The pure reliever is still a relatively new problem for voters to grapple with. The candidacies of Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman both resulted in quick enshrinement. It is clear that Wagner is not viewed on par with those late-inning legends. Still, Wagner is sixth all-time in saves and seventh among relievers in Win Probability Added.

The likelihood is that Wagner continues to gain votes in the coming years, but ultimately falls short of election by the BBWAA. Lee Smith‘s selection by the Veteran’s Committee in 2019 may be his best-case scenario.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (1-2)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 3-5 by JAWS. Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Larry Walker

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

2. Roger Clemens

JAWS: 102.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roger Clemens was born in Dayton, Ohio. When he was as sophomore in high school, he moved to Sugar Land, Texas. After graduating from Spring Woods High School in Houston, Clemens attended San Jacinto Junior College before transferring to the University of Texas. After two excellent seasons at Texas, the Boston Red Sox selected him 19th overall in the 1983 draft.

As an advanced college arm, Clemens rose quickly through the Boston system. He made his big league debut in May, 1984. Clemens quickly established himself as one of the most promising young arms in the game.

By 1986, Clemens ascended to the top of the baseball world. In 33 starts, he led the league in wins (24), ERA (2.48), and WHIP (0.97). The Red Sox cruised to the A.L. East title and advanced to the World Series before losing to the Mets. He was the unanimous A.L. Cy Young winner and took 19 of 28 first-place votes for MVP to secure that honor as well.

Clemens was again dominant in 1987. In 36 starts, he finished with a 2.97 ERA and 256 strikeouts in 281.2 innings. He led the league in wins (20), complete games (18), shutouts (7), FIP (2.91), and strikeout/walk ratio (3.08). He received 21 of 28 first-place votes to win his second straight Cy Young.

In his late-20s, Clemens would solidify his legacy as one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history. From 1988-1992, Clemens posted an average line of 253 innings, 18 wins, 236 strikeouts, 2.62 ERA, 159 ERA+, 2.53 FIP, and 8.0 bWAR. He was an All Star in four of the five seasons and finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting in each of his All Star seasons.

The Red Sox won the A.L. East in both 1988 and 1990. Both times they were swept by the Oakland Athletics in the ALCS.

Clemens won his third, and final, Cy Young with the Red Sox in 1991. He led the league in ERA (2.62), innings (271.1), strikeouts (241), and ERA+ (165).

From 1993-1996, Clemens clearly slowed down a bit as he entered his 30s. He was healthy enough to average 186 innings per season, and effective enough to post a 130 ERA+ over that stretch. Although he was still one of the best pitchers in the game, he appeared to be trending the wrong direction.

When Clemens hit the open-market as a free agent after the 1996 season, both he and the team seemed ready for a change. The best Red Sox pitcher since Cy Young signed a three-year contract with the division-rival Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto

Clearly motivated by the doubters in Boston, and nationwide, Clemens responded in a big way. During his two seasons with Toronto, he was again the best pitcher in baseball. Clemens won back-to-back Cy Youngs for the second time in his career winning 41 games and posting an absurd 196 ERA+ in the process.

Even with the best pitcher on the planet, Toronto failed to make the playoffs in 1997-1998. With just one year remaining on his contract, Toronto dealt Clemens to the New York Yankees just before the 1999 season.

New York

From 1999-2003, Clemens alternated brilliance and mediocrity in New York. He averaged 114 ERA+ over that stretch and was twice an All Star. He won his sixth Cy Young on the strength of a 20-3 record in 2001.

The Yankees made the postseason every year, and advanced to the World Series four times. In 1999 and 2000, Roger Clemens helped pitch Boston’s greatest rival to World Series championships. It was salt in the wounds of a Red Sox Nation still burdened by the Curse of the Bambino.

Houston

A free agent again after 2003, Clemens was headed for his age-41 season. Although it appeared he would retire, Clemens instead opted to follow his friend and teammate Andy Pettitte to the Houston Astros.

Clemens took to the National League very well, compiling a 38-18 record and 180 ERA+ over three seasons in Houston. He won his seventh, and final, Cy Young in 2004. He was just the fourth player at the time to win the award in both leagues. He helped pitch the Astros to their first World Series appearance in franchise history in 2005, but they were swept by the Chicago White Sox.

Semi-Retirement and Retirement

By 2006, Clemens was looking for opportunities to pitch for contenders with reduced overall levels of commitment as he apparently contemplated outright retirement. Both 2006 with Houston, and 2007 in a return engagement with the Yankees, were shortened seasons in which Clemens did not pitch until June.

Although he was still effective in these reduced seasons, the rigors of his brilliant 24-year career had taken their toll.

Roger Clemens retired after the 2007 season.

Hall of Fame?

Roger Clemens is one of the few pitchers in history for whom you could make a legitimate case as the best hurler of all-time.

Over his incredible 24 seasons in the big leagues, Clemens cemented his place among baseball’s all-time greats.

Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards, the most in history. His 139.0 bWAR as a pitcher is third-most in history, and the most since integration. He is third all-time with 4672 strikeouts, and ninth in wins at 354.

For all of his on-field brilliance, Clemens is held back by a variety of other factors that have cast a dark cloud over his legacy. His personal temperament and character have been called into question in a variety of contexts. On the baseball side specifically, the court of public opinion has pretty clearly judged him guilty of steroid use during his career as well.

Each new round of Hall of Fame balloting has the potential to provide new information for how the public perception of his career may, or may not, be changing. Clemens climbed to 57.3% of the ballot in 2018. With four years remaining, it is unclear whether or not he will be able to make up the precious ground needed to get him to the 75% mark required for enshrinement in Cooperstown.

As the baseball world continues to try to sort through the mess left in the aftermath of the Steroid Era, Clemens’s legacy remains in limbo. Regardless of one’s personal opinion on how to judge these players, Roger Clemens is one of the most accomplished pitchers in big league history. However you choose to remember him, he will be remembered. In the end, that may be all that’s left for the Rocket.

1. Barry Bonds

JAWS: 117.8 (53.5 Average HOF LF)

Barry Bonds was born into Major League Baseball. The son of All Star outfielder Bobby Bonds, Barry was a second round pick of the San Francisco Giants out of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo in 1982. When the Bonds family and the Giants ended up $5,000 apart in the negotiations for his signing bonus, Barry enrolled at Arizona State. After an excellent career for the Sun Devils, Barry was drafted sixth overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1985. Bonds began the 1986 season in Triple-A, but was in the big leagues by June.

Bonds immediately established himself as one of the best all around players in the game. His broad base of tools and skills allowed him to average 124 OPS+ and 5.9 bWAR from 1986-1989. Although the Pirates turned in just one winning season in his first four, Bonds emerged as the center piece of a young, talented roster that would dominate the N.L. East in the early 90s.

1990 marked the first of three straight N.L. East championships for the Pirates. Each time they were defeated in the NLCS, first by the Cincinnati Reds, then by the Atlanta Braves in back-to-back seasons. Bonds won his first MVP award in 1990 when he led the league in slugging (.565) and OPS+ (170) while hitting 33 homers and stealing 52 bases. In 1991, he followed it up with league leading marks in OBP (.410) and OPS+ (160) en route to a second place MVP finish. In 1992, he won his second MVP after leading the league in runs (109), walks (127), OBP (.456), slugging (.624), and OPS+ (204).

San Francisco

When Barry Bonds hit free agency after the 1992 season, he was unquestionably the best player available. Entering his age-28 season, he was still young, but his personality, and asking price, limited the number of teams willing to pursue him. The new ownership group in San Francisco signed Bonds to the largest contract in baseball at $43 million over six years.

In San Francisco, Bonds remained one of the most transcendent players in the game. Over the life of his initial contract from 1993-1998, Bonds averaged .307/.445/.617, 182 OPS+, 39 homers, and 32 stolen bases. He was an All Star each season, and won his third MVP in 1993. Despite his brilliant performance, the Giants reached the playoffs just once, a division championship followed by first round defeat in 1997.

Following the 1998 home run craze, baseball had clearly undergone a paradigm shift. The high tide of offensive explosion experienced league wide during the previous decade swept the nation, including Barry Bonds.

By 2000, Bonds, now 35, was poised to take his game to another level. From 2000-2004, Bonds averaged .339/.535/.781, 241 OPS+, 52 homers, 174 walks, and 10.2 bWAR. It was the most utterly dominant stretch of offensive play in baseball history. He won the MVP each year from 2001-2004. The Giants made the playoffs in 2000, 2002, and 2003, peaking with an N.L. pennant in 2002.

Old age and injuries slowed Bonds into his 40s. Although no longer the otherworldly force he had been earlier in the decade, he was still among the best hitters in the game. In his final three seasons, from 2005-2007, Bonds averaged .274/.464/.561, 163 OPS+, but just 90 games. After he broke Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record in late 2007, his career came to an ignominious end. With mounting legal troubles presenting an ever-present cloud over his play, Bonds was not offered a contract to play in 2008. Despite coming off a season in which he led the league in walks (132), and OBP (.480), Barry Bonds never played again.

Hall of Fame?

Barry Bonds is arguably the best player to ever play Major League Baseball. His 162.8 bWAR is fourth best in history, and the highest of any player since integration. His seven MVP awards are the most in history (no other player has more than three). He is baseball’s all-time leader in home runs (762), and walks (2,558). He ranks in the top five in a host of other categories.

Like Clemens, the entirety of the argument around Bonds’s place in baseball history is centered on his steroid use during his peak seasons.

Bonds and Clemens are both trending fairly well in the ballots that have been made publicly available so far. Unfortunately, they have not gained much support from returning voters, a metric which pretty clearly indicates that many are not changing their opinions on the candidacies of two of the game’s greatest players.

The symmetry of their careers and candidacies is remarkable. Each player has a claim to the title of best player in history on his respective side of the ball. Each player dominated the game on a level that may never be matched. In the end, their fates are inextricably tied together. They have trended almost identically in the Hall of Fame balloting, and it’s not hard to see that this is a neither, or both, proposition with respect to Cooperstown.

For Hall of Fame junkies, there is perhaps no more important issue to monitor over the coming years.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (11-15)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

15. Lance Berkman

JAWS: 45.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Lance Berkman was born and raised in the Texas Triangle. A graduate of Canyon High School in New Braunfels, TX northeast of San Antonio, Berkman played his college ball in Houston at Rice University. The Houston Astros selected Berkman 16th overall in the 1997 draft. A Baseball America Top-100 Prospect from 1998-2000, Berkman advanced quickly through Houston’s minor league system. He made his big league debut in July, 1999.

A switch-hitter with power and patience, Berkman quickly established himself as one of the top hitters in the National League. In 12 seasons with the Astros, Berkman hit .296/.410/.594, 146 OPS+. He led the league in doubles in 2001 (55) and 2008 (46) and RBI in 2002 (128).

Berkman contributed to four Astros playoff teams including the 2005 National League Champions. He was the best player by bWAR on the 2001 N.L. Central Champions, and the 2004 N.L. Wild Card winner.

With the team struggling in 2010, the Astros traded Berkman to the Yankees at the trade deadline. Serving primarily as a DH, Berkman helped New York secure the Wild Card spot.

Berkman signed with the St. Louis Cardinals heading into 2011. It would turn out to be one of the best offensive seasons of his career. The 2011 Cardinals turned a Wild Card berth into the 12th World Series championship in franchise history. Berkman was a driving force in their victory over the Texas Rangers, hitting .423/.516/.577 with nine runs and five RBI in the seven-game series.

The Cardinals won the Wild Card again in 2012, but Berkman played just 32 games as injuries took their toll. He finished his career with the Texas Rangers in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Lance Berkman was a marvelous all around player during his 15-year career. With a career line of .293/.406/.537, 144 OPS+, Berkman was clearly one of the most dominant hitters of his era. He was also a versatile defensive player who played at least 166 games at all three outfield spots as well as first base during his career.

He was a six-time All Star who received MVP votes in seven seasons including third-place finishes in 2002 and 2006.

In his first year on the ballot, it is unclear how the voters will treat Berkman. He spent much of his career surrounded by fellow Hall of Fame caliber talents. As a result, it is possible that he was underappreciated during his career.

Berkman ranks as the 20th best left fielder by JAWS. His career 144 OPS+ puts him well above the average for Hall of Fame left fielders. Minimal defensive value, and a comparatively short career, are probably enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.

On a loaded ballot, it’s possible Berkman fails to achieve the 5% needed to remain eligible beyond this year. He probably deserves better than that, but either way, it’s hard to see him standing out among the other stellar hitters on the ballot at this time.

14. Andy Pettitte

JAWS: 47.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Andy Pettitte was a 1990 graduate of Deer Park High School in Texas. The New York Yankees selected him as a draft-and-follow candidate in the 22nd round that June. Pettitte enrolled in San Jacinto College in Houston and showed enough in the spring of 1991 that the Yankees signed him that May. Pettitte climbed methodically through the Yankees system.

By 1995, Pettitte was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He made his debut that season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting, and helping New York to the Wild Card.

The Yankees made the playoffs every season from 1995-2003. With Pettitte providing a steady presence in their rotation, New York won the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000. Pettite finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young four times during this period.

After a tough loss to the Marlins in the 2003 World Series, Pettitte became a free agent. Entering his age-32 season, Pettitte returned home to pitch for the Houston Astros. From 2004-2006 with the Astros, Pettitte was one of the best pitchers in the National League. He helped the team to Wild Card berths in 2004-2005, and the National League pennant in 2005.

After the 2006 season, Pettitte returned to the Yankees. He spent most of the next seven years pitching for the Yankees, although he sat out the 2011 season entirely. Pettitte pitched for four more Yankees playoff teams during this stretch, and won his fifth World Series in 2009.

Hall of Fame?

Andy Pettitte finished his 18-year career with a record of 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, and 3.74 FIP. He was a three-time All Star who finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting five times.

In his first year on the ballot, Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy is probably the dividing mark for the members of the storied Yankees dynasty of that era. While Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are no doubt first-ballot Hall of Famers, the team’s success did little for the candidacies of Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, both of whom have already fallen off the ballot.

Pettitte is pretty clearly in the middle of those five. He will surely show better than Posada or Williams, but won’t achieve the same type of perhaps unanimous support as Jeter or Rivera.

Pettitte falls considerably short of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher. He is probably one of the top-100 starters in history, but that hardly ensures enshrinement in Cooperstown.

My gut feeling is that history will struggle with how to properly view Pettitte’s career. At different times, he was both one of the best pitchers in the game, and highly overrated. There is little doubt that if he had played for another organization, his resume would fall short as his win-loss record and postseason exploits are pillars of his case. At the same time, how many of the five Yankees championships he helped secure would have been won without him?

Of course, we have not even mentioned Pettitte’s admitted use of Human Growth Hormone in the middle of his career. For a player whose case is fringy to begin with, his PED use is probably too much to overcome in the current climate. If he can hang around on the ballot for a full ten-year stretch, it is possible that changing views on both PED’s, and the modern starting pitcher, could help his chances in the long run. For now, it’s hard to imagine him getting in any time soon.

13. Gary Sheffield

JAWS: 49.3 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Gary Sheffield was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1986 graduate of Hillsborough High School, Sheffield was drafted sixth overall by the Milwaukee Brewers. Originally a shortstop, Sheffield proved to be a highly advanced offensive player in his ascension through the Brewers system. He made his big league debut late in 1988 at just 19.

The club shifted him to third base, in the big leagues, and outside of a three-win season in 1990, Sheffield struggled through most of his time with the Brewers. By the end of the 1991 season, his career OPS+ was 95 while averaging just 90 games in his three full seasons.

In Spring Training, 1992 the Brewers traded Sheffield to the San Diego Padres. With a clean start in a new organization, Sheffield thrived. He won the N.L. batting title in 1992 with a line of .330/.385/.580, 168 OPS+. In 1993, the Padres struggled, Sheffield slowed, and the All Star third baseman was traded to the Florida Marlins for a package including future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman.

Sheffield spent more time with the Marlins that anywhere else in his career. The Marlins moved him to the outfield where he would remain for the rest of his career. From 1993-1998, he hit .288/.426/.543, 156 OPS+ and produced 13.2 bWAR. He led the N.L. in OBP (.465) and OPS+ (189) in 1996.

An expansion team in 1993, the Marlins struggled to find their footing until 1997. That year they won 92 games and the N.L. Wild Card en route to the World Series. As the team’s best hitter in the regular season as well as the playoffs, no one played a larger role in Florida’s first World Series championship than Gary Sheffield.

Marlins ownership infamously tore down their championship core heading into 1998. Sheffield was traded to the Dodgers as part of a massive package that temporarily resulted in Mike Piazza joining the Marlins.

From 1998-2001 in Los Angeles, Sheffield remained one of the best hitters in baseball. He posted a .312/.424/.573, 160 OPS+ line producing 17.0 bWAR. The Dodgers never made the postseason during Sheffield’s tenure and traded him to the Braves before the 2002 season.

Sheffield posted 151 OPS+ over his two seasons in Atlanta. The 2002-2003 Braves had nearly identical seasons winning 101 games, the N.L. East title, and ultimately losing in the first round of the playoffs.

A free agent after the 2003 season, Sheffield signed with the New York Yankees. From 2004-2006 he produced 135 OPS+ and was part of three straight A.L. East championships.

After he was derailed by injuries in 2006, the Yankees traded him to the Detroit Tigers. Primarily a DH during his two seasons in Detroit, Sheffield was still an above-average hitter, but had slowed considerably. The Tigers released him prior to the 2009 season as the slugger sat with 499 career homers.

Sheffield quickly signed with the New York Mets. He played 100 games in the final season of his career, hitting 10 homers to give him a career total of 509.

Hall of Fame?

In his remarkable 22-year career, Gary Sheffield hit .292/.393/.514, 140 OPS+. His 509 career home runs rank 26th all-time. Sheffield was a nine-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes seven times including three seasons in which he finished second or third (1992, 2003, 2004).

Sheffield ranks as the 23rd best right fielder in history by JAWS. Although he ranks above 11 Hall of Famers at the position, he stands little chance of induction at this time.

In 2004, Sheffield admitted to steroid use as part of the BALCO investigation. Players with better statistical resumes who have been linked to steroid use have failed to secure the support necessary for election. Like Pettitte, this reality is probably too much for Sheffield to overcome.

Now in his fifth year of eligibility, Sheffield has some time for the ballot, and sentiment, to shift in his favor. After securing just 11% of the vote in 2018, he may have too far to go in too short a time.

12. Sammy Sosa

JAWS: 51.2 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Sammy Sosa was born and raised in San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Texas Rangers in July, 1985. As a young player, Sosa was wiry strong and explosive, but raw. His tantalizing physical tools allowed him to climb through the Rangers system. Despite the obvious flaws in his game, notably a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, Sosa made his big league debut with Texas at 20.

That same season, the Rangers used Sosa as part of a package to land White Sox Franchise Phenom Harold Baines at the trade deadline. Sosa continued to flash his physical talent with the White Sox, but failed to make significant progress in refining his game. Sosa was essentially a replacement-level player during his time with the White Sox.

Prior to the 1992 season, the Sox made a decision that would alter the fate of both Chicago franchises. They traded Sammy Sosa to the Cubs as the headline piece for All Star outfielder George Bell. At 32, Bell had just two seasons left in the big leagues while the 23-year-old Sosa would go on to become one of the best players in Cubs history.

Sosa steadily improved during his early years with the Cubs, settling in as an above-average hitter by 1993. In 1995, Sosa began a streak of nine straight seasons in which he would received MVP votes. He was a 30/30 player in both 1993 and 1995. He hit 40 homers for the first time in 1996.

Everything changed for Sammy Sosa, and Major League Baseball, in 1998. During that famed summer, Sosa and Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire embarked on their epic chase of Roger Maris‘s single-season home run record. McGwire finished with 70 to set the new record, but Sosa also broke the old record with 66 of his own. Sosa led the league in runs (134) and RBI (158). The Cubs won the N.L. Wild Card, and Sosa the MVP.

Sosa remained one of the most feared sluggers in baseball for years. He hit 63 homers in 1999, and 64 in 2001, making him the only player in history with three 60-homer seasons. When the Cubs won the N.L. Central in 2003, Sosa was still their best hitter.

In 13 seasons with the Cubs, Sosa hit .284/.358/.569, 139 OPS+, and 545 homers.

His final years in Chicago were marred by a suspension for corking his bat, increased suspicion about steroid usage, and alienation of the organization he had carried for a decade.

Sosa was traded to Baltimore before the 2006 season. He sat out 2007. He then returned to hit 21 homers for the Rangers in 2008 allowing him to eclipse the 600 mark for his career.

Hall of Fame?

In his 18-year career, Sammy Sosa hit .273/.344/.534, 128 OPS+. His 609 career homers rank ninth all-time. Sosa was a seven-time All Star who won six Silver Sluggers. He received MVP votes nine times. He finished second in 2001, and won the award during his incredible 1998 season.

Sosa ranks as the 18th best right fielder by JAWS, five spots ahead of Sheffield, and above two more Hall of Famers. Despite his on-paper advantages, he has actually fared worse than Sheffield up to this point in the process.

Even more so than Sheffield, Sosa is a poster boy for the steroid era. Despite suspicions that engulfed the late stages of his career, and a June, 2009 New York Times report claiming he tested positive in 2003, Sosa has remained evasive on the subject in retirement. The issue remains the cause of friction with Cubs ownership to this day.

Now in his seventh year on the ballot, Sosa has even less time for things to swing in his favor than Sheffield. He earned just 7.8% of the vote in 2018.

11. Todd Helton

JAWS: 53.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Todd Helton was the 8th overall pick by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Tennessee in the 1995 draft.

He played his entire 17-year career with the Rockies. His career line of .316/.414/.539, 133 OPS+, and 61.2 bWAR makes him the best player in franchise history.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Todd Helton’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

Todd Helton was a five-time All Star who won four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.

Helton has a strong case for enshrinement in Cooperstown. By JAWS, Helton ranks as the 15th best first baseman in history. While that places him just below the lofty average mark for the position, he is surrounded by Hall of Famers on the list.

2019 is Helton’s first year on the ballot. Now in his ninth year on the ballot, Larry Walker’s results provide a potential guide for the way Helton’s candidacy may be viewed. Although modern metrics strip away ballpark context, baseball writers have long struggled to separate the Coors Field effect when evaluating Rockies players for awards. Hitters are often over-penalized and pitchers under-rewarded.

Walker is running out of time in his bid to be elected by the writers, but Helton figures to benefit in the long run as the writers grapple with Walker’s candidacy. At some point, these two players will force BBWAA members to determine what, exactly, a Rockies hitter would have to do to earn their vote. How preposterous do the numbers have to be?

In my world, both Helton and Walker are Hall of Fame players. I am cautiously optimistic that they will each be recognized as such at some point in the future.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (16-20)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the first piece in the series. Players 21-25 by JAWS.

20. Miguel Tejada

JAWS: 41.9 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Miguel Tejada was born and raised in Bani, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Oakland Athletics in July, 1993. Tejada came stateside in 1995 and quickly established himself as a well-rounded shortstop prospect in his age-21 season. He was a Baseball America Top-100 prospect for three straight seasons, including back-to-back top-10 rankings in 1997 and 1998.

In seven seasons with Oakland, Tejada hit .270/.331/.460 for 107 OPS+. From 1998-2003, he averaged 3.7 bWAR. In 2002, he won the American League MVP on the strength of a .308/.354/.508, 128 OPS+ line with 34 homers and 131 RBI.

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series. With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. After the 2003 season, the A’s allowed Tejada to depart via free agency to the Baltimore Orioles.

Tejada’s stretch in Baltimore from 2004-2007 was the best of his career. He averaged .311/.362/.501, 124 OPS+, and 5.0 bWAR. He made the All Star team three times, and won two Silver Sluggers. The Orioles had a losing record each season. They dealt Tejada to Houston after the 2007 season.

Tejada made the All Star team both seasons in Houston, but his production began to slip. He averaged 101 OPS+ and 1.9 bWAR.

From 2010-2011, Tejada bounced around from Baltimore to San Diego, and San Francisco. After missing the 2012 season, Tejada returned for 53 games with Kansas City in 2013, his final stint in the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

Miguel Tejada was one of the top shortstops in baseball during an era of great shortstops. Tejada was a six-time All Star who won two Silver Sluggers, and the 2002 A.L. MVP.

JAWS ranks him as the top shortstop on the 2019 Ballot in his first year of eligibility. His well-rounded skill set, and incredible durability (he played 162 games every season from 2001-2006), helped him accumulate more career bWAR than Omar Vizquel in 797 fewer games.

Ultimately, Tejada’s statistical case leaves him shy of the Hall of Fame standard at the position. When combined with the cloud of PED evidence surrounding his career, Tejada stands little chance of induction. It is entirely possible that he falls off the ballot after this year.

19. Mariano Rivera

JAWS: 42.5 (32.3 Average HOF RP)

Mariano Rivera was signed as an amateur free agent out of Panama by the New York Yankees in 1990. Rivera excelled during his minor league career in the Yankees system while splitting time between starting and relieving. Rivera made his big league debut at the age of 25 in 1995. Although he started 10 games during his rookie year, Rivera’s destiny was in the bullpen.

Beginning in 1996, Rivera embarked on an incredibly dominant career as a reliever. For the next 18 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera was consistently among the best relievers in the game. His utter dominance in the late innings was a key element of the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The Yankees made the playoffs 13 straight seasons from 1995-2007 and 17 times in Rivera’s 19 seasons with the club. Rivera was a key piece of five World Series championships (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009).

His legacy in the postseason leaves no doubt about Rivera’s place in baseball history. In 141 career playoff innings across 96 games, Rivera was 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.70 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP. Simply put, if the Yankees handed Mariano Rivera a lead in October, the game was over.

Mariano Rivera finished his career with a record of 82-60, 652 saves, a 2.21 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 205 ERA+ over 1283.2 innings.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons with the New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera carved out his legacy as the greatest closer in baseball history.

Rivera was a 13-time All Star, five-time Rolaids Reliever of the Year, and five-time World Champion. He was the ALCS MVP against Boston in 2003, and the World Series MVP against Atlanta in 1999.

He is baseball’s all-time leader in saves (652) and ERA+ (205).

Rivera ranks second all-time in JAWS among relievers, trailing only Dennis Eckersley whose 12 seasons and 361 games as a starting pitcher hardly makes for an apples to apples comparison.

Rivera appears to be a slam dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer. The only real question seems to be whether or not he will make history one more time as the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

18. Fred McGriff

JAWS: 44.3 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Fred McGriff was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1981 graduate of Jefferson High School, McGriff was selected in the 9th round by the New York Yankees. After the 1982 season, the 19-year-old McGriff was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. McGriff had a cup of coffee with Toronto in 1986, and was in the majors for good in 1987.

From 1987-1990, McGriff averaged .278/.390/.531, 154 OPS+, and 4.8 bWAR. He led the league in homers (36) and OPS+ (165) en route to a Silver Slugger award in 1989.

In one of the most fascinating trades in baseball history, the Blue Jays shipped McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter in December, 1990. The deal worked out famously for the Blue Jays while McGriff and Fernandez both had All Star seasons in San Diego.

In parts of three seasons with the Padres, McGriff averaged .281/.388/.519 and 149 OPS+. He led the National League with 35 homers in 1992, earning All Star and Silver Slugger honors in the process.

With the Padres in the midst of a brutal 1993 season, McGriff was traded to the Atlanta Braves in July. He remained with Atlanta through 1997, helping to propel the Braves to four division championships, and the 1995 World Series championship. In parts of five seasons in Atlanta, McGriff hit .293/.369/.516 and 128 OPS+. He was a three-time All Star for the Braves.

Following the 1997 season, the Braves sold McGriff to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays who were heading into their inaugural season as an expansion franchise. Now in his mid-30s, McGriff remained an above-average, and sometimes excellent, hitter in his home town. He made his fifth, and final, All Star team in 2000.

At the 2001 trade deadline, Tampa dealt McGriff to the Chicago Cubs. He remained in Chicago through the 2002 season. McGriff spent 2003 with the Dodgers, and wrapped up his career back in Tampa for 27 games in 2004.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons, Fred McGriff hit .284/.377/.509, good for 134 OPS+. His 493 career homers fall just shy of the magical 500 threshold. A five-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger, McGriff was one of the most feared sluggers of his era.

Unfortunately for McGriff, much of his career was played during the peak of baseball’s steroid era. While McGriff has never been seriously linked to PED use, it is difficult to find proper context for his numbers. As a result of the high offensive bar at the position, he ranks 31st among first basemen by JAWS. More than a third of the players who rank above him are from the same generation.

2019 represents McGriff’s 10th, and final, season on the ballot. After earning just 23.2% of the vote in 2018, McGriff seems all but certain to fall short of the required 75% this year. It is fair to wonder whether he might fair better with the Today’s Game Committee in the future.

17. Roy Oswalt

JAWS: 45.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Oswalt was born and raised in Central Mississippi. A graduate of Weir High School, Oswalt played his college ball at Holmes Community College in Ridgeland, MS. The Houston Astros selected him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft out of Holmes.

Despite his small frame, Oswalt used electric stuff to post solid strikeout numbers across the Houston farm system. When he made a quantum leap with his control during the 2000 season, he jumped to #13 on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects. He made his big league debut in 2001.

Oswalt made an immediate impact in Houston working to a 170 ERA+ and fifth place Cy Young finish during his rookie season to help the Astros win the N.L. Central. He helped Houston back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2004 and 2005. In 2005, the Astros won the National League pennant as Oswalt combined with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to form the most dominant starting rotation in franchise history.

In 10 seasons with the Astros, Oswalt went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA, 133 ERA+, and 3.35 FIP. He finished in the top-five in the Cy Young voting five times, and made three All Star teams.

With Houston out of contention in 2010, they traded Oswalt to the Phillies. Oswalt helped pitch the Phillies to consecutive A.L. East titles in 2010-2011.

He signed with the Texas Rangers in May, 2012 and helped them into the Wild Card Game. He finished his career with nine games for the Rockies in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

For much of Roy Oswalt’s 13-year career, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished with a career record of 163-102, 3.36 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 3.37 FIP. He is the greatest pitcher in Astros franchise history.

In his first year on the ballot, it is not entirely clear what kind of support we can expect for Oswalt. I suspect that, ultimately, he was neither durable nor dominant enough to make up for his shortcomings in the other category. Two more years of his top level, or three to four more at his career average, would have made his case considerably more intriguing.

I think it’s possible that Oswalt can hang around on the ballot beyond this year. That’s hardly a certainty given the loaded field he is competing with for the voters’ attention.

16. Jeff Kent

JAWS: 45.6 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Jeff Kent was born and raised in Southern California. After graduating from Edison High School in Huntington Beach, he headed north to play his college ball at the University of California, Berkeley. The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Kent in the 20th round in 1989.

Although his defense was regarded with some skepticism by scouts, Kent proved himself to be a polished offensive player in a quick ascent through the Toronto system. He made his big league debut in 1992. After proving himself capable of producing at the big league level, Kent was used as the headliner in an August trade with the Mets that brought David Cone to Toronto. Cone helped pitch Toronto to a World Series title that same season.

In parts of five seasons with the Mets from 1992-1996, Kent averaged 107 OPS+ while playing passable defense at second and third. At the 1996 trade deadline, the Mets used Kent as the key piece in a deal to land All Star second baseman Carlos Baerga from the Indians.

Although the Indians won the A.L. Central in 1996, Kent made minimal impact down the stretch, or in the playoffs. In November, he was traded from Cleveland to San Francisco as part of a package for All Star third baseman Matt Williams.

Entering his age-29 season in 1997, Kent was at a crossroads. He had already been traded three times, each time as the headline piece that landed his former club an All Star in return.

In San Francisco, Kent finally found himself. Paired with Barry Bonds, he began his Giants career with consecutive top-10 MVP finishes in 1997-1998. In 1999 he began a string of three straight All Star selections. In 2000, Kent won the National League MVP with a line of .334/.424/.596, 162 OPS+, and 7.2 bWAR.

With Bonds and Kent, the Giants were in contention every season. They won the N.L. West in 1997 and 2000. They parlayed a 2002 Wild Card berth into the National League pennant. In six seasons with the Giants, Kent averaged 136 OPS+ and 5.2 bWAR. He was a three-time All Star, and won three Silver Sluggers.

After the 2002 season, Kent signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros. He remained a solid hitter, producing 121 OPS+ in two seasons. He helped Houston reach the 2004 NLCS. Kent was an All Star in 2004.

Once again a free agent after 2004, Kent signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. From 2005-2008, he averaged 119 OPS+ and 1.7 bWAR as age sapped his defensive value. He was an All Star for the final time in 2005. He helped the Dodgers to a Wild Card berth in 2006, and the N.L. West title in 2008.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Jeff Kent established a legacy as one of the best offensive second basemen in history. Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and the 2000 N.L. MVP.

Kent is now in his sixth year on the ballot. He appears to be hanging by a thread after receiving just 14.5% of the vote last year.

Although he falls short of the JAWS average for second basemen, he ranks higher than eight of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position. Offensively, he is even better. His 123 OPS+ is better than 13 of the 20. He is the all-time leader in home runs by a second baseman.

Despite his offensive prowess, Kent’s defensive track record costs him both in terms of career value produced, and in the minds of the voters. His offensive chops are such that it’s not impossible to imagine him experiencing a late surge, but it seems unlikely.