Orioles Archives - Franchise Phenoms

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Soriano and Roberts

Hall of Fame election season is upon us! As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

22. Alfonso Soriano

JAWS: 27.8 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

A native of baseball hotbed San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, Alfonso Soriano’s route to the big leagues was unconventional. Rather than sign with a big league club during his teenage years like most of his countrymen, Soriano instead began his professional career with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of the Japanese Central League.

A salary dispute led Soriano to challenge his contract status in Japan. Major League Baseball declared Soriano a free agent and he signed with the Yankees in September, 1998.

Soriano’s explosive athleticism immediately created high hopes in New York. His unique blend of power and speed was truly exciting. Soriano was quickly recognized as a top prospect. Baseball America ranked him 39th, or better, every year from 1999-2001.

The Yankee Years

Soriano became the Yankees every day second baseman in 2001. Although he was a below average hitter, and replacement level player overall, it was clear he had serious potential.

Soriano broke out in 2002. He was selected to the All Star team and led the A.L. in runs (128), hits (209), and stolen bases (41) while also clubbing 51 doubles, 39 homers, and 102 RBI. He finished third in the MVP race and won the Silver Slugger.

Soriano made the All Star team, and received MVP votes, again in 2003. The Yankees won 101 games en route to their ninth straight playoff appearance. After losing to the Marlins in the World Series, the New York front office was rabid with urgency to get back to the top of the mountain.

In the winter of 2004, the Texas Rangers did the unthinkable and made the reigning MVP, Alex Rodriguez, available in trade talks. A frenzied bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox ensued. In the end, it was New York’s willingness to include Soriano, himself a budding All Star talent, that sealed the deal for the Yankees.

Texas

In Texas, Soriano joined a talented young core of position players. While he was an All Star and Silver Slugger again in 2004-2005, his offensive production fell short of the level he had established the previous two seasons with the Yankees. At the same time, his defensive work at the keystone was increasingly scrutinized. As a team, the Rangers pitching was largely miserable, and they finished third both years.

2006 was Soriano’s final season before free agency. With the looming likelihood that he would test the open market, Texas opted to deal Soriano to the Nationals for a package of young players headlined by Brad Wilkerson.

Washington

In Washington, Soriano joined a club that had its own All Star second baseman, Jose Vidro. The Nationals moved Soriano to left field in deference to Vidro. Playing for a contract on a last place team, Soriano flourished. His 135 OPS+ was a career high. He was again an All Star and Silver Slugger while finishing sixth in the MVP race.

Coming off a career year, Soriano was in prime position to enter free agency. In November, 2006 he landed an 8-year, $136 million contract with the Cubs. In Chicago, Soriano was expected to the center piece of a rebuilding Cubs club that had immediate playoff aspirations.

136 Million Dollar Man

Expectations were high for Soriano, and the Cubs, entering 2007. Soriano largely delivered on those lofty expectations in the early years of his deal. The Cubs won back-to-back division titles in 2007-2008. Soriano averaged .291/.340/.547, 121 OPS+, and 3.1 bWAR while making the All Star team both years.

Soriano’s remaining time in Chicago was less pleasant. Although he was often an above-average hitter (107 OPS+ from 2009-2013), his best days were clearly behind him. While he was tolerable in the outfield, he was never quite good. His once dynamic power speed combo was reduced to a power-only profile. The power he did produce was the result of a free-swinging approach that included a below-average OBP, and an inconvenient number of strikeouts.

The Cubs failed to make the playoffs again during Soriano’s tenure. Searching for an offensive boost of their own in 2013, a struggling Yankees club traded for Soriano in July. Although he finished 2013 on a high note, Soriano struggled mightily in 2014. He was released that July and never played in the big leagues again.

Hall of Fame?

Alfonso Soriano was one of the most dynamic, and exciting players of the 2000s. From 2001-2008, he averaged .283/.330/.520, 117 OPS+, 38 doubles, 33 homers, 31 stolen bases, and 3.7 bWAR. He was an All Star every year from 2002-2008, and won four Silver Sluggers.

His eight-year peak certainly created the foundation for a potentially compelling Hall of Fame case. Unfortunately, his decline phase was not particularly graceful. While he remained a productive hitter, he was stylistically frustrating to watch. Because of the expectations associated with his contract, I suspect people remember too much of this phase of his career, and not enough of his prime.

Memories aside, the numbers paint a clear picture. Soriano was one of the better players of his decade, but well shy of Cooperstown standards.

21. Brian Roberts

JAWS: 29.2 (56.9 Average HOF 2B)

Brian Roberts was drafted 50th overall by the Baltimore Orioles out of the University of South Carolina in 1999. A polished switch-hitter and infielder with good speed, Roberts raced through the Baltimore system and made his big league debut just two years later.

Although he initially controlled the strike zone and made consistent contact, Roberts lacked meaningful power. He struggled to adjust to the big leagues, and produced just 68 OPS+ through his first 441 plate appearances in 2001-2002.

His offensive production improved to passable in 2003. From 2003-2004, Roberts averaged 89 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR while settling in as Baltimore’s every day second baseman. He led the A.L. with 50 doubles in 2004.

Breakout

2005 was a career year for Roberts. At age 27, he was one of the best hitters in the A.L. Roberts produced .314/.387/.514, 139 OPS+, and 7.3 bWAR. He made the All Star team for the first time. 2005 was also the only season in which Roberts received MVP votes.

Although he never had another year as good as 2005, Roberts remained a sneaky star level player for the rest of the decade. From 2005-2010, Roberts averaged .292/.368/.447, 114 OPS+, 40 doubles, 32 stolen bases, and 4.0 bWAR.

In 2007 he made his second All Star team, and led the league with 50 stolen bases. In 2009, he paced the circuit in doubles for the second time with 56.

Unfortunately, the best of his career was largely lost on the broader baseball community. From 2001-2011, Baltimore never won more than 78 games. While Roberts was often excellent, his teams were decidedly awful.

Decline

Roberts began a steep decline phase in 2011. Injuries quickly derailed his career. He played in just 39 games that season. In his final three seasons with the Orioles, Roberts averaged just 44 games per year and was largely ineffective when he did play. Baltimore did win the Wild Card in 2012, but Roberts was sidelined for the ALDS against the Yankees.

Roberts was a free agent for the first time in his career heading into 2014. He signed with the Yankees. Roberts was given first crack at the second base job among a group of fellow aging former stars. While he was respectable, the team struggled to keep its head above water. Roberts was released in August– just a matter of a few weeks after Alfonso Soriano as it turned out. He never played in the big leagues again.

Hall of Fame?

Brian Roberts was quietly excellent for most of a decade with the Orioles. He was largely underappreciated at the time– a product of playing on some of the worst Orioles teams ever.

By JAWS he is the 58th best second baseman in history. An excellent career to be sure, but well shy of Hall of Fame standards.

Like Soriano, Roberts is probably going to fall off the ballot after his first year. Both players had star caliber seasons. Neither player sustained that level of play long enough to build a Hall of Fame resume.

All-Time Orioles Team

We’re back with the All-Time Orioles Team.

Franchise Overview

One of the original American League franchises, Baltimore is actually the team’s third city. After a one season stint as the Milwaukee Brewers, and 52 years as the St. Louis Browns, the Baltimore Orioles joined the American League in 1954.

The Orioles .474 winning percentage ranks just 24th in history. Their 14 playoff appearances are tied for 13th all-time.

The Orioles have made playoff appearances in just 11.76% of their total seasons, a mark that is tied for 21st in history.

Their three World Series championships are tied for 10th most in history with five other teams.

The franchise’s golden age came while under the leadership of legendary manager Earl Weaver. After taking over midway through the 1968 season, Weaver led the Orioles to 1480 victories, an incredible .583 winning percentage, six playoff appearances, five American League pennants, and two world championships (1970 and 1983).

Recent years have been tougher. The Orioles have not made the World Series since their 1983 title. They have had just 11 winning seasons, and five playoff appearances in the last 36 seasons. In a particularly ugly stretch, Baltimore had 14 straight losing seasons from 1998-2011.

Hitters

Starting Lineup	Name	Position	B/T	bWAR/650	OPS+	Years Played
1.	Ken Singleton	RF (LF)	S/R	3.2	135	1975-84
2.	Ken Williams	LF (CF)	L/R	5.8	144	1918-27
3.	George Sisler	DH (1B)	L/L	4.8	131	1915-27
4.	Eddie Murray	1B	S/R	4.6	139	1977-88, 96
5.	Chris Hoiles	C	R/R	4.7	119	1989-98
6.	Cal Ripken Jr.	SS (3B)	R/R	4.9	112	1981-2001
7.	Brooks Robinson	3B	R/R	4.4	104	1955-77
8.	Bobby Wallace	2B (SS/3B)	R/R	5.2	103	1899-1916
9.	Paul Blair	CF	R/R	4.3	99	1964-76

Bench
OF	Boog Powell	1B/LF	L/R	3.4	135	1961-74
OF	Brady Anderson	CF/LF/RF	L/L	3.1	110	1988-2001
IN	Mark Belanger	SS	R/R	4.2	68	1965-81
IN	Harlond Clift	3B	R/R	3.9	118	1934-43
C	Rick Dempsey	C	R/R	3.4	89	1976-86, 92

The best teams in Orioles history were excellent all-around teams built around balanced offense, and pitching staffs supported by quality defenders. The Orioles all-time hitters rank just 23rd overall in OPS+.

Of course, position players do more than just swing the bat. The all-time Orioles roster is loaded with elite defensive players as well.

Legendary Left Side

Shortstop Cal Ripken Jr. is the best player in Orioles history. In 21 seasons with Baltimore, “The Iron Man” crafted a legacy that has endured long after he played his last game. There will never be another player quite like Cal Ripken Jr.

Ripken is best known for setting a seemingly unbreakable record of 2632 consecutive games played. In the process of setting that record, he unseated another all-time great in Lou Gehrig, and established a reputation as a beloved fan favorite.

Ripken was a 19-time All Star. He won eight Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves. In 1983, he won his first American League MVP while leading the league in runs, hits, and doubles. Ripken propelled the Orioles to a World Series title that year. He won his second MVP in 1991 while leading the league in total bases. He led the A.L. in bWAR in 1983, 1984, and 1991.

Ripken ranks top-10 all-time in assists (3rd), at-bats (4th), Defensive bWAR (4th), games at shortstop (5th), and games played (8th).

Joining Ripken on the left side of the Orioles infield is third baseman Brooks Robinson. Like Ripken, Robinson spent his entire career with the Orioles. In 23 seasons, Robinson made a case as the best defensive third baseman in history.

Robinson was an 18-time All Star, and won 16 Gold Gloves at the hot corner. He was a key player on six Orioles playoff teams, including four A.L. pennant winners, and two world champions (1966 and 1970). He was the A.L. MVP in 1964. Robinson was also the top A.L. position player by bWAR in 1962 and 1964.

Robinson’s 16 Gold Gloves are the most of any non-pitcher in history. He is the all-time leader in games, putouts, assists, and double plays at third base. He also leads third basemen in a variety of advanced defensive metrics. Robinson ranks third all-time in defensive bWAR.

The Rest of the Infield

Hall of Famer Eddie Murray mans first base on the all-time Orioles team. One of the best switch-hitters in history, Murray spent 13 seasons mashing in Baltimore. He was a seven-time All Star with the Orioles. Murray also won three Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. Murray finished sixth, or better, in the MVP voting every season from 1980-1985. Like Ripken, he was one of the stars of the 1983 champions.

Hall of Fame first baseman George Sisler serves as the D.H. Sisler spent 12 seasons as one of the best hitters in the A.L. with the St. Louis Browns. Sisler won batting titles in 1920 (.407) and 1922 (.420). He is one of only three hitters to have multiple .400 seasons since 1900. He also had league-leading seasons in stolen bases (3x), hits (2x), doubles (2x), and runs. Sisler was the A.L. MVP in 1922.

Hall of Famer Bobby Wallace slots in at second base despite playing the bulk of his career at shortstop. Wallace starred for 15 seasons with the St. Louis Browns. He led the league in assists twice with the Browns. His 48.5 bWAR is fifth among position players in franchise history.

Catcher Chris Hoiles played his entire 10-year career with the Orioles. A solid all-around catcher, Hoiles was the primary backstop on Baltimore’s back-to-back playoff teams in 1996-1997. He received MVP votes in 1993.

The Outfield

Left fielder Ken Williams spent 10 seasons with the Browns. In 1922 he paced the A.L. in homers (39), RBI (155), and total bases (367). He received MVP votes in 1923-1924. Williams is the franchise’s all-time leader in OPS (.961) and slugging (.558).

Center fielder Paul Blair was an excellent all-around player over 13 seasons in Baltimore. Blair was a two-time All Star and won eight Gold Gloves. He received MVP votes four times. Like Robinson, Blair was part of the glue that held together six playoff teams, four pennant winners, and two world champions (1966 and 1970). He led the A.L. with 12 triples in 1967.

Ken Singleton plays right field and hits leadoff on the all-time Orioles team. Singleton was an offensive force for most of his 10 seasons in Baltimore. He was a three-time All Star and received MVP votes six times including a pair of top-three finishes. Singleton helped lead the Orioles to the World Series twice, including a key role as the DH on the 1983 champions.

Bench

Boog Powell spent 14 seasons in Baltimore. Powell was an integral player on six Orioles playoff teams including the 1966 and 1970 world champions. Powell won the MVP in 1970 and received votes for the award four other times with the Orioles. The hulking left-handed slugger made four straight All Star teams from 1968-1971. He led the league in slugging (.606) in 1964.

Brady Anderson spent 14 seasons roaming the Baltimore outfield. Anderson was a key cog in Baltimore’s back-to-back playoff appearances in 1996-1997. 1996 was his career year as he set highs in hits (172), homers (50), and RBI (110). Anderson was a three-time All Star who received MVP votes twice. A gritty player whose hard-nosed play endeared himself to Orioles fans, Anderson led the league in HBP three times in his career. He is Baltimore’s all-time leader in HBP (148) and Power-Speed # (248.7).

Shortstop Mark Belanger spent 17 seasons dazzling Orioles fans with his spectacular glove work. “The Blade” was an eight-time Gold Glover. He led the A.L. in defensive bWAR six straight seasons from 1973-1978. Belanger was the primary shortstop on six Orioles playoff teams including the 1970 world champions. He was a 1976 A.L. All Star. Belanger ranks second all-time in defensive bWAR trailing Ozzie Smith.

Third baseman Harlond Clift played 10 seasons for the St. Louis Browns. A solid defender, Clift led A.L. third basemen in assists twice and putouts three times. Clift led the A.L. with 111 walks in 1939. He made his only All Star team in 1937. No hitter in franchise history had more plate appearances (6354) with a higher OBP (.394). His 145 runs in 1936 is the highest mark in team history.

Rick Dempsey spent 12 seasons behind the plate for the Orioles. Dempsey was the primary backstop on two pennant winners including the 1983 world champions. Dempsey had a sterling defensive reputation. Modern metrics agree– more than half of his career value came from his work behind the plate.

Pitchers

Starting Rotation	Name	B/T	ERA+	Years Played
1.	Jim Palmer	R/R	126	1965-84
2.	Mike Mussina	R/R	130	1991-2000
3.	Urban Shocker	R/R	127	1918-24
4.	Dave McNally	R/L	108	1962-74
5.	Jack Powell	R/R	109	1902-03, 05-12

Bullpen
LR	Mike Flanagan	L/L	100	1975-87, 91-92
RP	Sammy Stewart	R/R	114	1978-85
RP	Eddie Watt	R/R	123	1966-73
RP	Dick Hall	R/R	125	1961-66, 69-71
SU	Zack Britton	L/L	130	2011-18
CL	Gregg Olson	R/R	176	1988-93

Baltimore’s all-time starting rotation is carried by a strong trio of aces. Overall, the starters rank 17th in average ERA+ at 120.

Starting Rotation

Baltimore’s all-time rotation is led by Hall of Famer Jim Palmer. Palmer spent his entire 19-year career with the Orioles. He is one of 10 pitchers in history to win three, or more, Cy Youngs. In addition to his three wins, he boasted five other top-five finishes. He is 10th all-time with 3.57 Cy Young shares.

Palmer was one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. A six-time All Star, he also won four Gold Gloves. Palmer compiled eight 20-win seasons in his career. He also led the A.L. multiple times in innings (4x), wins (3x), and ERA (2x).

Palmer is Baltimore’s all-time leader in pitching bWAR (67.5), wins (268), games (558), innings (3948), strikeouts (2212), complete games (211), and shutouts (53). He was part of eight Baltimore playoff teams, six A.L. pennant winners, and three world champions (1966, 1970, 1983).

Fellow Hall of Famer Mike Mussina represents perhaps the greatest regret of the all-time Orioles roster. Baltimore’s 1st round pick out of Stanford in 1990, Mussina debuted in 1991. He spent the first 10 years of his career with the Orioles. The team made two playoff appearances (1996-1997) during his tenure.

Mussina was a five-time All Star with the Orioles. He finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting seven times while in Baltimore. He also won four Gold Gloves. Mussina paced the A.L. once each in wins, innings, and BB/9 with Baltimore.

Following the 2000 season, Mussina signed as a free agent with the division rival New York Yankees where he spent the final eight seasons of his storied career. Baltimore has not developed a pitcher of his caliber since.

Right-hander Urban Shocker pitched seven excellent seasons for the Browns. A noted spit-baller, Shocker had four straight 20-win seasons from 1920-1923. Shocker had excellent control, leading the league in K/BB ratio and BB/9 in 1922-1923. He received MVP votes in both seasons. He also led the league once each in wins, strikeouts, FIP, and saves with the Browns.

Southpaw Dave McNally pitched 13 seasons for the Orioles. McNally utilized one of the best breaking balls of his era to support Palmer in some of the best Orioles rotations of all-time. He contributed to six playoff teams, four pennant winners, and two world champions (1966 and 1970). A three-time All Star, McNally finished fourth, or better, in the Cy Young voting three times. He also received MVP votes four times. McNally had four straight 20-win seasons from 1968-1971. He led the A.L. in wins and WHIP once each.

Right-hander Jack Powell pitched 10 years for the Browns including two 20-win seasons. His 32.0 bWAR is fourth all-time among the franchise’s pitchers.

Bullpen

The bullpen’s average ERA+ is 128, ranking 21st among all-time teams.

Southpaw Mike Flanagan pitched 15 years in Baltimore, most often as a starter, though he did make 122 relief appearances. Flanagan won the 1979 Cy Young, leading the league with 23 wins and 5 shutouts. He was an All Star in 1978. He was also a key piece of the 1983 world championship starting rotation. Following his retirement, Flanagan served the Orioles as a broadcaster, pitching coach, and executive vice president of baseball operations.

Sammy Stewart pitched eight years for the Orioles. A versatile arm, Stewart started just 25 games, but pitched at least 93 innings seven times. He led the A.L. in ERA (2.32) in 1981. He was second in appearances during the 1983 championship season.

Eddie Watt pitched eight seasons in Baltimore. He was the team’s most effective reliever for most of his tenure. Watt was part of five playoff teams, four pennant winners, and two world champions (1966 and 1970).

Dick Hall began his career as an outfielder for three seasons with the Pirates before earning a new lease on life as a pitcher. He spent nine seasons with the Orioles. The 6’6″ Hall was a great athlete with excellent control. Hall is Baltimore’s all-time leader in WHIP (1.01), K/BB (3.96), and BB/9 (1.47). He was a key reliever on the 1970 champions.

Zack Britton spent the first eight seasons of his career with the Orioles. A top prospect as a starter, Britton shifted to the bullpen full time in his fourth season. The left-hander used his turbo sinker to become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball for a resurgent Orioles team in the mid 2010s. He made the All Star for the first time in 2015 before turning in an all-time great reliever season the following year. In 2016, Britton was again an All Star. In 67 innings he had a 0.54 ERA and led the A.L. with 47 saves. He finished 3rd in the Cy Young and 11th in the MVP voting.

Gregg Olson used a devastating curve ball to compile a franchise best 160 saves in six seasons with the Orioles. In 1989, Olson won the Rookie of the Year Award while also finishing 6th in the Cy Young and 12th in the MVP race. He was an All Star in 1990.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (3-5)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman.

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

5. Larry Walker

JAWS: 58.7 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Larry Walker signed with the Montreal Expos as an amateur free agent out of British Columbia in November, 1984.

Walker made his big league debut with the Expos. Over six seasons in Montreal, he produced a .281/.353/.483 line, 128 OPS+, and 21.1 bWAR.

Heading into 1995, Walker signed a free agent contract with the Colorado Rockies. In 10 seasons with Colorado, he produced a .334/.426/.618 line, 147 OPS+, and 48.3 bWAR. He was one of the best all around players in the game during his time with the Rockies.

Walker spent the final two seasons of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. He remained an excellent hitter when healthy, posting a 134 OPS+ in 2004-2005. Walker helped the Cardinals reach the playoffs in both years.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Larry Walker’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.565, 141 OPS+. A true five-tool talent, Walker contributed in every facet of the game. He was a five-time All Star who won seven Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, and three batting titles. He received MVP votes eight times, winning the award in 1997.

Walker ranks as the 10th best right fielder in history by JAWS. He is above the average of Hall of Fame right fielders, giving serious weight to his candidacy. Every right fielder with a higher JAWS score than Walker is already enshrined in Cooperstown.

2019 is Walker’s ninth year on the ballot. His candidacy seems to have suffered from a combination of the Coors Field effect, and the number of his seasons that were cut short by injuries.

He did experience a surge last year, jumping from 21.9% of the vote in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018. With two years remaining, he has significant ground to cover. It appears that he will make substantial gains this year, but it’s unclear if he will be able to close the gap to the elusive 75% mark.

For those who saw him play, Larry Walker’s tremendous physical talent placed him among the game’s all-time great five-tool players. Larry Walker was a Hall of Fame player. Hopefully he receives the formal honors that go with it.

4. Mike Mussina

JAWS: 63.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Mike Mussina was born and raised in Central Pennsylvania. A 1987 graduate of Montoursville High School, Mussina was drafted in the 11th round by the Orioles that June. Rather than sign a professional contract, he enrolled at Stanford. In 1990, after his Junior season, Mussina was once again drafted by Baltimore, this time with the 20th overall pick.

As an advanced college arm, Mussina was sent directly to Double-A after signing, and reached Triple-A by the end of his draft year. Baseball America ranked him their #19 prospect heading into 1991. Mussina returned to Triple-A Rochester for some additional seasoning. After 19 minor league starts, he made his big league debut in August, 1991.

Mussina was immediately one of the best pitchers in the American League. After a strong showing in his rookie season, “Moose” made the All Star team for the first time in 1992. He would receive that honor four more times as a member of the Orioles.

In 1996-1997, Mussina led Baltimore’s pitching staff to back-to-back playoff appearances, first as a Wild Card, then to their first A.L. East title in 14 seasons. The Orioles were defeated in the ALDS both years.

Although the Orioles struggled during Mussina’s final three seasons in Baltimore, Moose remained one of the best pitchers in the American League.

In 10 seasons with the Orioles, Mussina went 147-81 with a 3.53 ERA, and 130 ERA+. After 2000, heading into his age-32 season, Mussina hit the free agent market as one of the most sought-after hurlers in the game. Much to the chagrin of Orioles fans, Mussina inked a massive six year, $87 million contract with their division rivals, the New York Yankees.

Mussina spent the last eight years of his career in the Bronx. In 2001, he made good on the first year of his new contract with a 17-11 record, and a league-leading 2.92 FIP. His 7.1 bWAR was tops on a team full of superstars that would go on to win the American League pennant.

The Yankees made the playoffs in each of Mussina’s first seven seasons with the club. When they made it back to the World Series in 2003, Mussina was again the best player on the roster at 6.6 bWAR.

In his late-30s, Mussina was more often an average pitcher than a star. From 2004-2008, he averaged 30 starts, 14 wins, 179 innings, and 107 ERA+. He retired after the 2008 season, despite coming off his first 20-win season, and finishing with his best ERA+ (131) since his first year in New York.

Hall of Fame?

Over the course of his 18-year career, Mike Mussina was one of the most consistently excellent, and durable starters in the game. He finished with a career record of 270-153, 3.68 ERA, and 123 ERA+.

Moose was a five-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, FIP, and walk rate once each during his career. Although he never won a Cy Young, he finished six, or better, nine times including a second place finish in 1999. He was also an excellent fielder, winning seven Gold Gloves.

JAWS ranks Mussina as the 29th best starting pitcher in history, above the average for Hall of Fame starters.

Although he never quite had the same stretch of dominance as the most legendary starters in history, Mike Mussina is a Hall of Famer. For 18 seasons he was one of the most reliably excellent pitchers in the game, all while working in the American League East during the peak of the steroid era.

Now in his sixth year on the ballot, Mussina appears nearly certain of eventual induction. After earning 63.5% of the vote in 2018, he is gaining additional support, and could be elected as soon as this year.

3. Curt Schilling

JAWS: 64.1 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Curt Schilling was born in Anchorage, Alaska. Schilling’s father, a sergeant in the U.S. Army, relocated his family several time during Curt’s youth. As something of a late-bloomer, Schilling went undrafted out of Shadown Mountain High School in Phoenix. He enrolled at Yavapai College, north of Phoenix, and was picked by the Boston Red Sox in the January phase of the 1986 draft. He signed in May and began his pro career that summer.

In July, 1988 the Red Sox packaged Schilling with another future star, outfielder Brady Anderson, in a deal to land veteran pitcher Mike Boddicker from the Baltimore Orioles. Boddicker was instrumental in helping the Red Sox secure the A.L. East title, but Baltimore would win the trade in the long term.

Schilling made his big league debut with Baltimore in 1988, but failed to stick with the club until a successful stint in the bullpen during the second half of 1990. That off season, Schilling was packaged with fellow future All Stars Steve Finley, and Pete Harnisch, in a deal to acquire slugger Glenn Davis from the Houston Astros.

After one mostly unremarkable season working out of the Houston bullpen, the Astros traded Schilling to the Phillies for right-hander Jason Grimsley. Although he would have a solid 15-year career of his own, Grimsley spent the entire 1992 season in the minors before Houston released him the following spring. Curt Schilling would go on to star for the Phillies.

In 1992, Schilling spent his age-25 season split between the bullpen and the starting rotation. By the time the dust had settled, he had worked 226.1 innings at 150 ERA+ with a league-leading 0.99 WHIP. Although he struggled to replicate that dominance over the next three seasons, Schilling did help pitch the Phillies to the 1993 World Series.

For all of his tremendous talent, Schilling struggled to realize his potential. Heading into his age-29 season in 1996, Schilling had 805 big league innings under his belt at 109 ERA+. Unexpectedly, 1996 would be the season that charted a new course for the remaining 12 seasons of his career.

From 1996-1999, Schilling averaged 30 starts, 222 innings, 238 strikeouts, and 137 ERA+. He made his first All Star team during his age-30 season.

Despite having one of the best starters in the league heading up their staff, the Phillies floundered. They rattled off seven straight losing seasons after their N.L. championship in 1993. In 2000, they traded their 33-year-old ace to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In Arizona, Schilling was paired with Randy Johnson to establish one of the most dominant 1-2 punches the game has ever seen.

In 2001, Johnson won the Cy Young, and Schilling finished second. The Diamondbacks won the N.L. West, and cruised into the playoffs ready to roll out their pair of aces. Schilling made six starts during the post season, including three in the World Series. He finished 4-0, allowing just six runs over 48.1 innings to help the Diamondbacks win the World Series in just their fourth season in existence. Schilling was the World Series MVP.

In 2002, Johnson and Schilling headed up the Cy Young balloting for the second straight season. The D’Backs won the division again, but were swept in the first round by the Cardinals.

Schilling was strong again in 2003, but after Arizona failed to make the playoffs, the club decided to go another direction. They agreed to deal Schilling to the Boston Red Sox. There, the 37-year-old ace was expected to form the same kind of dominant playoff duo that had brought a championship to the desert with another Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.

Schilling lived up to his end of the bargain, leading the A.L. with 21 wins, and a 5.80 K/BB ratio. The Red Sox made the playoffs as the Wild Card team. Schilling won three of his four playoff starts. The most famous of which was the legendary “Bloody Sock” Game Six of the ALCS as the Red Sox improbably won their third straight game to even the series with the Yankees. He also beat the Cardinals in Game Two of the World Series, putting a final stamp on his legacy as one of the most important players on the team that ended the Curse of the Bambino.

Schilling’s final season was 2007. At age 40, he made 24 regular season starts– enough to help Boston win the A.L. East title. He then went 3-0 in four playoff starts as the Red Sox won their second World Series in four years.

Hall of Fame?

Curt Schilling’s 20-year career was truly unique. Schilling compiled 79% of his career bWAR after the age of 30. His career arc defied logic making him an unlikely Hall of Fame candidate. He finished with a record of 216-146, 3.46 ERA, and 127 ERA+.

Schilling was a six-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, strikeouts, and WHIP twice each during his career. He finished fourth, or better, in the Cy Young voting four times, including three second-place finishes in a four year stretch from 2001-2004.

JAWS ranks Schilling as the 27th best starter in history, two spots ahead of Mussina. Despite his unique career path, Schilling is 15th all-time in strikeouts (3116). His 4.383 K/BB ratio is fifth best in history.

Now in his 7th year on the ballot, Schilling still has some ground to cover. After finishing with just 51.2% of the vote a year ago, his induction is not a foregone conclusion. His relative lack of support appears to be a combination of his low win total, a crowded ballot, and a series of controversial statements he has made since his retirement.

For whatever holes you might poke in Schilling’s resume, he is clearly a Hall of Famer based on merit alone. His late ascent to dominance should be easily counterbalanced by the extent of that dominance once he achieved it. Beyond that, his postseason resume, which includes World Series appearances with three different franchises, and a central role in winning three championships complete with signature moments, should remove any lingering doubt.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (16-20)

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the first piece in the series. Players 21-25 by JAWS.

20. Miguel Tejada

JAWS: 41.9 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

Miguel Tejada was born and raised in Bani, Dominican Republic. He signed as an amateur free agent with the Oakland Athletics in July, 1993. Tejada came stateside in 1995 and quickly established himself as a well-rounded shortstop prospect in his age-21 season. He was a Baseball America Top-100 prospect for three straight seasons, including back-to-back top-10 rankings in 1997 and 1998.

In seven seasons with Oakland, Tejada hit .270/.331/.460 for 107 OPS+. From 1998-2003, he averaged 3.7 bWAR. In 2002, he won the American League MVP on the strength of a .308/.354/.508, 128 OPS+ line with 34 homers and 131 RBI.

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series. With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. After the 2003 season, the A’s allowed Tejada to depart via free agency to the Baltimore Orioles.

Tejada’s stretch in Baltimore from 2004-2007 was the best of his career. He averaged .311/.362/.501, 124 OPS+, and 5.0 bWAR. He made the All Star team three times, and won two Silver Sluggers. The Orioles had a losing record each season. They dealt Tejada to Houston after the 2007 season.

Tejada made the All Star team both seasons in Houston, but his production began to slip. He averaged 101 OPS+ and 1.9 bWAR.

From 2010-2011, Tejada bounced around from Baltimore to San Diego, and San Francisco. After missing the 2012 season, Tejada returned for 53 games with Kansas City in 2013, his final stint in the big leagues.

Hall of Fame?

Miguel Tejada was one of the top shortstops in baseball during an era of great shortstops. Tejada was a six-time All Star who won two Silver Sluggers, and the 2002 A.L. MVP.

JAWS ranks him as the top shortstop on the 2019 Ballot in his first year of eligibility. His well-rounded skill set, and incredible durability (he played 162 games every season from 2001-2006), helped him accumulate more career bWAR than Omar Vizquel in 797 fewer games.

Ultimately, Tejada’s statistical case leaves him shy of the Hall of Fame standard at the position. When combined with the cloud of PED evidence surrounding his career, Tejada stands little chance of induction. It is entirely possible that he falls off the ballot after this year.

19. Mariano Rivera

JAWS: 42.5 (32.3 Average HOF RP)

Mariano Rivera was signed as an amateur free agent out of Panama by the New York Yankees in 1990. Rivera excelled during his minor league career in the Yankees system while splitting time between starting and relieving. Rivera made his big league debut at the age of 25 in 1995. Although he started 10 games during his rookie year, Rivera’s destiny was in the bullpen.

Beginning in 1996, Rivera embarked on an incredibly dominant career as a reliever. For the next 18 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera was consistently among the best relievers in the game. His utter dominance in the late innings was a key element of the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The Yankees made the playoffs 13 straight seasons from 1995-2007 and 17 times in Rivera’s 19 seasons with the club. Rivera was a key piece of five World Series championships (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009).

His legacy in the postseason leaves no doubt about Rivera’s place in baseball history. In 141 career playoff innings across 96 games, Rivera was 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.70 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP. Simply put, if the Yankees handed Mariano Rivera a lead in October, the game was over.

Mariano Rivera finished his career with a record of 82-60, 652 saves, a 2.21 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 205 ERA+ over 1283.2 innings.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons with the New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera carved out his legacy as the greatest closer in baseball history.

Rivera was a 13-time All Star, five-time Rolaids Reliever of the Year, and five-time World Champion. He was the ALCS MVP against Boston in 2003, and the World Series MVP against Atlanta in 1999.

He is baseball’s all-time leader in saves (652) and ERA+ (205).

Rivera ranks second all-time in JAWS among relievers, trailing only Dennis Eckersley whose 12 seasons and 361 games as a starting pitcher hardly makes for an apples to apples comparison.

Rivera appears to be a slam dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer. The only real question seems to be whether or not he will make history one more time as the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

18. Fred McGriff

JAWS: 44.3 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Fred McGriff was born and raised in Tampa, Florida. A 1981 graduate of Jefferson High School, McGriff was selected in the 9th round by the New York Yankees. After the 1982 season, the 19-year-old McGriff was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. McGriff had a cup of coffee with Toronto in 1986, and was in the majors for good in 1987.

From 1987-1990, McGriff averaged .278/.390/.531, 154 OPS+, and 4.8 bWAR. He led the league in homers (36) and OPS+ (165) en route to a Silver Slugger award in 1989.

In one of the most fascinating trades in baseball history, the Blue Jays shipped McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter in December, 1990. The deal worked out famously for the Blue Jays while McGriff and Fernandez both had All Star seasons in San Diego.

In parts of three seasons with the Padres, McGriff averaged .281/.388/.519 and 149 OPS+. He led the National League with 35 homers in 1992, earning All Star and Silver Slugger honors in the process.

With the Padres in the midst of a brutal 1993 season, McGriff was traded to the Atlanta Braves in July. He remained with Atlanta through 1997, helping to propel the Braves to four division championships, and the 1995 World Series championship. In parts of five seasons in Atlanta, McGriff hit .293/.369/.516 and 128 OPS+. He was a three-time All Star for the Braves.

Following the 1997 season, the Braves sold McGriff to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays who were heading into their inaugural season as an expansion franchise. Now in his mid-30s, McGriff remained an above-average, and sometimes excellent, hitter in his home town. He made his fifth, and final, All Star team in 2000.

At the 2001 trade deadline, Tampa dealt McGriff to the Chicago Cubs. He remained in Chicago through the 2002 season. McGriff spent 2003 with the Dodgers, and wrapped up his career back in Tampa for 27 games in 2004.

Hall of Fame?

In 19 seasons, Fred McGriff hit .284/.377/.509, good for 134 OPS+. His 493 career homers fall just shy of the magical 500 threshold. A five-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger, McGriff was one of the most feared sluggers of his era.

Unfortunately for McGriff, much of his career was played during the peak of baseball’s steroid era. While McGriff has never been seriously linked to PED use, it is difficult to find proper context for his numbers. As a result of the high offensive bar at the position, he ranks 31st among first basemen by JAWS. More than a third of the players who rank above him are from the same generation.

2019 represents McGriff’s 10th, and final, season on the ballot. After earning just 23.2% of the vote in 2018, McGriff seems all but certain to fall short of the required 75% this year. It is fair to wonder whether he might fair better with the Today’s Game Committee in the future.

17. Roy Oswalt

JAWS: 45.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Oswalt was born and raised in Central Mississippi. A graduate of Weir High School, Oswalt played his college ball at Holmes Community College in Ridgeland, MS. The Houston Astros selected him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft out of Holmes.

Despite his small frame, Oswalt used electric stuff to post solid strikeout numbers across the Houston farm system. When he made a quantum leap with his control during the 2000 season, he jumped to #13 on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects. He made his big league debut in 2001.

Oswalt made an immediate impact in Houston working to a 170 ERA+ and fifth place Cy Young finish during his rookie season to help the Astros win the N.L. Central. He helped Houston back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2004 and 2005. In 2005, the Astros won the National League pennant as Oswalt combined with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to form the most dominant starting rotation in franchise history.

In 10 seasons with the Astros, Oswalt went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA, 133 ERA+, and 3.35 FIP. He finished in the top-five in the Cy Young voting five times, and made three All Star teams.

With Houston out of contention in 2010, they traded Oswalt to the Phillies. Oswalt helped pitch the Phillies to consecutive A.L. East titles in 2010-2011.

He signed with the Texas Rangers in May, 2012 and helped them into the Wild Card Game. He finished his career with nine games for the Rockies in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

For much of Roy Oswalt’s 13-year career, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He finished with a career record of 163-102, 3.36 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 3.37 FIP. He is the greatest pitcher in Astros franchise history.

In his first year on the ballot, it is not entirely clear what kind of support we can expect for Oswalt. I suspect that, ultimately, he was neither durable nor dominant enough to make up for his shortcomings in the other category. Two more years of his top level, or three to four more at his career average, would have made his case considerably more intriguing.

I think it’s possible that Oswalt can hang around on the ballot beyond this year. That’s hardly a certainty given the loaded field he is competing with for the voters’ attention.

16. Jeff Kent

JAWS: 45.6 (57.0 Average HOF 2B)

Jeff Kent was born and raised in Southern California. After graduating from Edison High School in Huntington Beach, he headed north to play his college ball at the University of California, Berkeley. The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Kent in the 20th round in 1989.

Although his defense was regarded with some skepticism by scouts, Kent proved himself to be a polished offensive player in a quick ascent through the Toronto system. He made his big league debut in 1992. After proving himself capable of producing at the big league level, Kent was used as the headliner in an August trade with the Mets that brought David Cone to Toronto. Cone helped pitch Toronto to a World Series title that same season.

In parts of five seasons with the Mets from 1992-1996, Kent averaged 107 OPS+ while playing passable defense at second and third. At the 1996 trade deadline, the Mets used Kent as the key piece in a deal to land All Star second baseman Carlos Baerga from the Indians.

Although the Indians won the A.L. Central in 1996, Kent made minimal impact down the stretch, or in the playoffs. In November, he was traded from Cleveland to San Francisco as part of a package for All Star third baseman Matt Williams.

Entering his age-29 season in 1997, Kent was at a crossroads. He had already been traded three times, each time as the headline piece that landed his former club an All Star in return.

In San Francisco, Kent finally found himself. Paired with Barry Bonds, he began his Giants career with consecutive top-10 MVP finishes in 1997-1998. In 1999 he began a string of three straight All Star selections. In 2000, Kent won the National League MVP with a line of .334/.424/.596, 162 OPS+, and 7.2 bWAR.

With Bonds and Kent, the Giants were in contention every season. They won the N.L. West in 1997 and 2000. They parlayed a 2002 Wild Card berth into the National League pennant. In six seasons with the Giants, Kent averaged 136 OPS+ and 5.2 bWAR. He was a three-time All Star, and won three Silver Sluggers.

After the 2002 season, Kent signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros. He remained a solid hitter, producing 121 OPS+ in two seasons. He helped Houston reach the 2004 NLCS. Kent was an All Star in 2004.

Once again a free agent after 2004, Kent signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. From 2005-2008, he averaged 119 OPS+ and 1.7 bWAR as age sapped his defensive value. He was an All Star for the final time in 2005. He helped the Dodgers to a Wild Card berth in 2006, and the N.L. West title in 2008.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Jeff Kent established a legacy as one of the best offensive second basemen in history. Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and the 2000 N.L. MVP.

Kent is now in his sixth year on the ballot. He appears to be hanging by a thread after receiving just 14.5% of the vote last year.

Although he falls short of the JAWS average for second basemen, he ranks higher than eight of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position. Offensively, he is even better. His 123 OPS+ is better than 13 of the 20. He is the all-time leader in home runs by a second baseman.

Despite his offensive prowess, Kent’s defensive track record costs him both in terms of career value produced, and in the minds of the voters. His offensive chops are such that it’s not impossible to imagine him experiencing a late surge, but it seems unlikely.