Category: Hall of Fame

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Chavez and Furcal

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

19. Eric Chavez

JAWS: 34.3 (55.7 Average HOF 3B)

Eric Chavez was drafted 10th overall by the Oakland Athletics out of Mount Carmel High School in San Diego, CA in 1996. A phenomenal talent, Chavez engineered a quick rise through the Oakland system. In 1997, he made his professional debut in High-A at 19. During his age-20 season, he conquered Double-A, Triple-A, and made his big league debut.

Heading into 1999, his age-21 season, Eric Chavez was ranked as the #3 prospect in baseball. He made the Athletics as the opening day third baseman, and never looked back.

Moneyball A’s

The start of Chavez’s career coincided with the beginning of the legendary Moneyball era in Oakland. Chavez would be at the center of a young core whose narrative would forever alter baseball.

Chavez quickly established himself as an above-average big leaguer despite his tender age. In 1999-2000, Chavez averaged 109 OPS+ and 2.2 bWAR. His defense quickly improved from solid to excellent. Meanwhile, Oakland was emerging as one of the best teams in baseball.

Beginning in 2001, Chavez took his game to another level. From 2001-2003, Chavez averaged .282/.345/.522, 127 OPS+, 38 doubles, 32 homers, 108 RBI, and 5.2 bWAR. He won three Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and received MVP votes twice.

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series.  With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. 

Rather than resign former MVP shortstop Miguel Tejada after the 2003 season, Beane opted to put his money down on Chavez. In March, 2004, Chavez signed a six-year, $66 million contract extension to remain with the A’s.

Team Leader

The contract extension ultimately kept Chavez in Oakland through the 2010 season. Unfortunately, his days as a true superstar were numbered. In 2004, Chavez basically matched the previous three years, posting 5.5 bWAR while leading the A.L. in walks (95), winning his fourth Gold Glove in a row, and again receiving MVP votes. Oakland missed the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Injuries began to steadily chip away at Chavez’s physical capabilities. In 2005-2006, he won his fifth, and sixth, consecutive Gold Gloves. At the same time, his offensive production declined from star caliber to just a tick above-average at 107 OPS+. Oakland won the A.L. West in 2006, but once again fell short of the World Series.

Early Decline

The vast majority of Chavez’s career accomplishments took place prior to his age-29 season in 2007. From 2007-2010, Chavez averaged just 38 games per season at 85 OPS+. His absence was a devastating blow to an Oakland team that had committed a significant chunk of its payroll to him. The A’s never had another winning season with Chavez on the roster.

A free agent after 2010, Chavez knocked around for a few more years. He spent 2011-2012 with a pair of division winning Yankees teams. He was especially effective in 2012, posting 125 OPS+ as a part-time DH/corner bat.

In 2013-2014, Chavez played a combined 124 games for the Diamondbacks where he continued to struggle with his health. He retired after the 2014 season.

Hall of Fame?

Eric Chavez was a sneaky star player for much of the 2000s. He won six Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Somehow, he never made an All Star team despite receiving MVP votes every year from 2002-2005.

There is no question that injuries and a premature decline robbed him of any chance at Cooperstown. At the same time, even his 7-year peak falls well short of the average mark for Hall of Fame third baseman.

Chavez is likely to be one-and-done on the Hall of Fame ballot.

18. Rafael Furcal

JAWS: 35.1 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

A native of Loma de Cabrera, Dominican Republic, Rafael Furcal signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in November, 1996. At first glance, Furcal’s diminutive frame (he’s listed at 5’8″) obscured his tremendous physical talent. A switch-hitter with explosive speed, and arm strength, Furcal developed into an impressive multi-faceted contributor.

By 1999, his age-21 season, Furcal was rated #60 on Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects. A strong year across both class-A levels saw his stock rise to #8 the following year.

In 2000, the Braves were coming off their fifth straight division title, and a World Series defeat at the hands of the Yankees. For a contending team in desperate need of a shortstop, Furcal was a revelation. He forced his way to the big leagues in April despite no experience in the high minors. Furcal won the Rookie of the Year on the strength of league-average hitting, elite base-running, and strong defense. The Braves playoff streak continued.

Finding His Footing

Furcal’s offensive production regressed following his Rookie of the Year campaign. In 2001-2002, he was a well below-average hitter at 82 OPS+. Solid defense and base-running ensured he remained an acceptable starting shortstop, but the overall package was decidedly underwhelming. In the meantime, the Braves kept their streak of division titles alive.

From 2003-2005, Furcal leveled out his production. Consistently improved control of the strike zone allowed him to post average offensive numbers at .285/.348/.429, 101 OPS+. The defense and base running that established his foundation now propped the overall package up to star level at an average of 4.9 bWAR during this stretch. In 2003, was an N.L. All Star, and received MVP votes, for the first time.

The Braves won the N.L. East title in each of Furcal’s six seasons with the club. For all their regular season success, Atlanta only made it past the NLDS once in those years, and never made the World Series. Furcal hit free agency after the 2005 season.

Dodger Deal

In December, 2005, Furcal signed a 3-year, $39 million contract to play shortstop for the Dodgers. In 2006, Furcal delivered a performance in line with his recent averages at 4.4 bWAR, helping the Dodgers win the Wild Card in the process.

2007 was his worst season in six years. In 2008, he was excellent when healthy, but played just 36 regular season games. L.A. won the N.L. West anyway. Furcal returned in time for a run to the NLCS.

Furcal hit the open market again after 2008. He opted to sign another three-year contract to stay with the Dodgers. He averaged 3.8 bWAR in 2009-2010. The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Phillies in five games for the second straight year in 2009. In 2010, Furcal missed most of May, and August, but was productive enough when healthy to make the All Star team.

Unexpected Glory

A miserable start to 2011 for Furcal, and the Dodgers, resulted in a deadline deal to the Cardinals. When Furcal joined the Cardinals, the team was clinging to hope at 57-52. A seemingly rejuvenated Furcal returned to form over the final 50 games, providing a needed boost. The Cardinals won 90 games, and the N.L. Wild Card.

By the time October hit, Furcal had cemented himself as the every day shortstop and leadoff hitter for the Red Birds. Although he struggled overall during the playoffs, the Cardinals defied all the odds by defeating three teams with 96 or more wins to win the World Series.

The End

Following the World Series, Furcal re-upped for two more years with St. Louis. A hot start in 2012 earned him his third, and final, All Star selection. Tommy John surgery ended his 2013 in spring training.

At age 36, he battled his way back for a nine-game cameo with the Marlins in 2014. The following year he played seven minor league games in the Royals system before retiring.

Hall of Fame?

Rafael Furcal was a three-time All Star who also has a Rookie of the Year and World Series ring to his credit. He was an exciting player to watch. He was also a winner who played on nine playoff teams.

Like Chavez, Furcal will ultimately fall short of enshrinement in Cooperstown. He neither meets the peak, nor longevity requirements of the Hall of Fame. Also like Chavez, he was talented, well-rounded player who had a memorable career.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Josh Beckett

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

20. Josh Beckett

JAWS: 33.4 (61.5 Average HOF SP)

Josh Beckett was drafted 2nd overall by the Florida Marlins out of Spring High School in Texas in 1999. The hype around Josh Beckett, the prospect, was tremendous. As a 6’5″ flamethrower from Texas, Beckett was anointed as the heir apparent to the throne previously occupied by Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan.

Baseball America immediately ranked Beckett as the 19th best prospect in the game. Beckett was excellent in his professional debut at Low-A, and jumped to 3rd in Baseball America’s 2001 list. When he torched High-A and Double-A en route to an impressive four-game big league debut, he was recognized as the top prospect in the game heading into 2002.

Beckett made the opening day starting rotation in 2002. Just 22, Beckett was the youngest, and arguably most precocious talent among an impressive group of young players. The Marlins won just 79 games, but the experience gained across the roster would pay dividends.

2003: An Improbable Run

The 2003 Marlins would continue to be carried by a group of future Franchise Phenoms. Beckett was joined by first baseman Derrek Lee, second baseman Luis Castillo, and third baseman Mike Lowell in an impressive homegrown core. The Marlins also made a number of significant changes to their roster heading into 2003. The addition of future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez as a free agent transformed the every day lineup. Speedy leadoff man Juan Pierre was acquired from Colorado. Rookie phenom Dontrelle Willis was a revelation in the rotation.

91 wins was good enough for the Marlins to win the N.L. Wild Card in 2003. Although he missed a hanful of starts for the second straight year, by the time the calendar hit October, Josh Beckett was regarded as Florida’s ace.

Beckett was out-dueled by San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt in the opening game of the NLDS. Florida rebounded to win the next three games– including two one-run wins– to advance to the NLCS against the Cubs.

Beckett again started the series opener. This time, he was battered by a strong Cubs lineup. The Marlins offense picked up the slack. An 11th inning homer by Lowell secured the opener. The Cubs took the next three games to jump out to a seemingly insurmountable 3-1 series lead.

Game five in Florida was a rematch of game one with Beckett opposed by Carlos Zambrano. This time it was all Josh Beckett. The budding ace went the distance, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out 11. Florida won 4-0 to stay alive.

Game six in Chicago was destined to be etched into baseball lore. Down 3-0 in the 8th, the Marlins– aided by fate— broke through for eight runs to even the series.

Game seven in Chicago was a slug fest early. A three-run top of the 5th put Florida ahead 6-5. Jack McKeon turned to Beckett– on just two days– rest to preserve the lead. Beckett worked four innings, allowing just a solo homer to pinch hitter Troy O’Leary in the 7th before handing the ball to closer Ugueth Urbina to nail down the win.

2003 World Series Champions

The 2003 World Series pitted the Marlins against the undisputed powerhouse of the day, the New York Yankees. The Marlins managed a split of the first two games in New York. Beckett was excellent in game three, allowing two runs over 7.1 innings while striking out 10. Unfortunately, future Hall of Famer Mike Mussina was better, and the Yankees won 6-1 to take the series lead.

Florida won games four and five by a combined three runs to retake the series lead. The series returned to New York for a game six showdown between Beckett and one of the Yankees all-time greats, Andy Pettitte. Beckett was masterful. He went the distance, scattering just five hits and two walks while striking out nine. In hostile territory, Josh Beckett shutout the New York Yankees, and the Marlins captured the second world championship in franchise history. Josh Beckett was voted World Series MVP.

2004-2005

Following the October glory of 2003, Beckett and the Marlins remained strong, but couldn’t quite recreate the magic. The Marlins won 83 games and missed the playoffs in both 2004-2005. For his part, Beckett averaged 168 innings of 3.57 ERA/113 ERA+.

With their championship core either gone, aging, or becoming more expensive, the Marlins elected to retool after 2005. In November, they traded Beckett and Lowell to the Boston Red Sox for a package headlined by another future Marlins great, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez.

Red Sox Nation

Entering his age 26 season, Josh Beckett already had a World Series MVP to his credit. His arrival in Boston carried lofty expectations for one of baseball’s most rabid fan bases.

The adjustment to the American League did not go smoothly. Although Beckett set career highs in innings (204.2) and wins (16) for the 2006 Red Sox, his 5.01 ERA was also the worst of his career. The Red Sox finished third in the A.L. East, and missed the playoffs.

Delivering on the Promise

In 2007, Josh Beckett followed the worst season of his young career with the best. Beckett led the A.L. in wins (20) and FIP (3.08) as the ace of a Red Sox club that won 96 games, and the division crown. Beckett made his first All Star team, finished second in the Cy Young race, and received MVP votes for the only time in his career.

In the 2007 post season, Josh Beckett did exactly what he was brought to Boston to do– deliver a championship.

In the opening game of the ALDS, Beckett scattered four hits while striking out eight to shutout the Angels. Boston swept the series.

In game one of the ALCS, Beckett held Cleveland to two runs over six innings to earn the win. The Indians shocked the world by taking the next three games to put Boston on the brink of the elimination. With their season on the line, Josh Beckett delivered again. In Cleveland for game five, Beckett allowed one run while striking out 11 over eight innings to keep the Red Sox alive. When the series returned home, the Red Sox throttled the upstart Indians to punch their ticket to the fall classic for the second time in four years. Josh Beckett was the ALCS MVP.

The 2007 World Series started in Boston with Josh Beckett on the mound for the Red Sox against the Colorado Rockies. Beckett allowed one run over seven innings while striking out nine for his fourth win of the post season. The Red Sox swept the Rockies to win the 7th championship in franchise history.

Red Sox Revelry

The years following the 2007 championship were a mixed bag for Beckett and the Red Sox. From 2008-2011, Beckett averaged 177 innings, 12 wins, 3.98 ERA, 113 ERA+, and 3.3 bWAR. He sandwiched All Star seasons in 2009 and 2011 with arguably the worst season of his career in 2010. The Red Sox averaged 92+ wins, but finished with just two Wild Card berths, and zero pennants to show for it.

In 2012, the Red Sox limped through a disappointing mess of a season. The infamous Chicken and Beer Scandal of 2011 had already claimed casualties from the Boston brain trust with Francona and G.M. Theo Epstein run out of town at season’s end. Just 53-51 at the end of July, things unraveled quickly. By August 25, the team had fallen to 60-67. Beckett was unceremoniously shipped to the Dodgers along with fellow stars Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez in a massive salary dump.

Hollywood

From 2012-2014, Beckett was mostly respectable (when available) for the Dodgers. In 35 total starts, he posted 3.39 ERA/106 ERA+. The Dodgers won N.L. West titles in 2013-2014, but injuries ended Beckett’s seasons early both years and he never appeared in a playoff game for the team. Beckett retired after the 2014 season.

Hall of Fame?

Josh Beckett’s career was, at times, everything from brilliant to frustrating and ultimately, short-lived. Over the course of his stints in Florida and Boston, Beckett often seemed to be either a brilliant revelation, or an exasperating disappointment, depending on the moment.

By his late-20s, his supreme talent, and developing resume, gave Beckett more than a puncher’s chance at the Hall of Fame. Instead, Josh Beckett was out of baseball by 35.

For all of the unrealized potential, Josh Beckett will be remembered. He will be remembered as an ace on two championship teams for two different organizations. He will be remembered for what he was: one of the best post season pitchers of the 2000s. He will be remembered for what he wasn’t: a true all-time great– a Hall of Famer.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Soriano and Roberts

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

22. Alfonso Soriano

JAWS: 27.8 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

A native of baseball hotbed San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, Alfonso Soriano’s route to the big leagues was unconventional. Rather than sign with a big league club during his teenage years like most of his countrymen, Soriano instead began his professional career with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of the Japanese Central League.

A salary dispute led Soriano to challenge his contract status in Japan. Major League Baseball declared Soriano a free agent and he signed with the Yankees in September, 1998.

Soriano’s explosive athleticism immediately created high hopes in New York. His unique blend of power and speed was truly exciting. Soriano was quickly recognized as a top prospect. Baseball America ranked him 39th, or better, every year from 1999-2001.

The Yankee Years

Soriano became the Yankees every day second baseman in 2001. Although he was a below average hitter, and replacement level player overall, it was clear he had serious potential.

Soriano broke out in 2002. He was selected to the All Star team and led the A.L. in runs (128), hits (209), and stolen bases (41) while also clubbing 51 doubles, 39 homers, and 102 RBI. He finished third in the MVP race and won the Silver Slugger.

Soriano made the All Star team, and received MVP votes, again in 2003. The Yankees won 101 games en route to their ninth straight playoff appearance. After losing to the Marlins in the World Series, the New York front office was rabid with urgency to get back to the top of the mountain.

In the winter of 2004, the Texas Rangers did the unthinkable and made the reigning MVP, Alex Rodriguez, available in trade talks. A frenzied bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox ensued. In the end, it was New York’s willingness to include Soriano, himself a budding All Star talent, that sealed the deal for the Yankees.

Texas

In Texas, Soriano joined a talented young core of position players. While he was an All Star and Silver Slugger again in 2004-2005, his offensive production fell short of the level he had established the previous two seasons with the Yankees. At the same time, his defensive work at the keystone was increasingly scrutinized. As a team, the Rangers pitching was largely miserable, and they finished third both years.

2006 was Soriano’s final season before free agency. With the looming likelihood that he would test the open market, Texas opted to deal Soriano to the Nationals for a package of young players headlined by Brad Wilkerson.

Washington

In Washington, Soriano joined a club that had its own All Star second baseman, Jose Vidro. The Nationals moved Soriano to left field in deference to Vidro. Playing for a contract on a last place team, Soriano flourished. His 135 OPS+ was a career high. He was again an All Star and Silver Slugger while finishing sixth in the MVP race.

Coming off a career year, Soriano was in prime position to enter free agency. In November, 2006 he landed an 8-year, $136 million contract with the Cubs. In Chicago, Soriano was expected to the center piece of a rebuilding Cubs club that had immediate playoff aspirations.

136 Million Dollar Man

Expectations were high for Soriano, and the Cubs, entering 2007. Soriano largely delivered on those lofty expectations in the early years of his deal. The Cubs won back-to-back division titles in 2007-2008. Soriano averaged .291/.340/.547, 121 OPS+, and 3.1 bWAR while making the All Star team both years.

Soriano’s remaining time in Chicago was less pleasant. Although he was often an above-average hitter (107 OPS+ from 2009-2013), his best days were clearly behind him. While he was tolerable in the outfield, he was never quite good. His once dynamic power speed combo was reduced to a power-only profile. The power he did produce was the result of a free-swinging approach that included a below-average OBP, and an inconvenient number of strikeouts.

The Cubs failed to make the playoffs again during Soriano’s tenure. Searching for an offensive boost of their own in 2013, a struggling Yankees club traded for Soriano in July. Although he finished 2013 on a high note, Soriano struggled mightily in 2014. He was released that July and never played in the big leagues again.

Hall of Fame?

Alfonso Soriano was one of the most dynamic, and exciting players of the 2000s. From 2001-2008, he averaged .283/.330/.520, 117 OPS+, 38 doubles, 33 homers, 31 stolen bases, and 3.7 bWAR. He was an All Star every year from 2002-2008, and won four Silver Sluggers.

His eight-year peak certainly created the foundation for a potentially compelling Hall of Fame case. Unfortunately, his decline phase was not particularly graceful. While he remained a productive hitter, he was stylistically frustrating to watch. Because of the expectations associated with his contract, I suspect people remember too much of this phase of his career, and not enough of his prime.

Memories aside, the numbers paint a clear picture. Soriano was one of the better players of his decade, but well shy of Cooperstown standards.

21. Brian Roberts

JAWS: 29.2 (56.9 Average HOF 2B)

Brian Roberts was drafted 50th overall by the Baltimore Orioles out of the University of South Carolina in 1999. A polished switch-hitter and infielder with good speed, Roberts raced through the Baltimore system and made his big league debut just two years later.

Although he initially controlled the strike zone and made consistent contact, Roberts lacked meaningful power. He struggled to adjust to the big leagues, and produced just 68 OPS+ through his first 441 plate appearances in 2001-2002.

His offensive production improved to passable in 2003. From 2003-2004, Roberts averaged 89 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR while settling in as Baltimore’s every day second baseman. He led the A.L. with 50 doubles in 2004.

Breakout

2005 was a career year for Roberts. At age 27, he was one of the best hitters in the A.L. Roberts produced .314/.387/.514, 139 OPS+, and 7.3 bWAR. He made the All Star team for the first time. 2005 was also the only season in which Roberts received MVP votes.

Although he never had another year as good as 2005, Roberts remained a sneaky star level player for the rest of the decade. From 2005-2010, Roberts averaged .292/.368/.447, 114 OPS+, 40 doubles, 32 stolen bases, and 4.0 bWAR.

In 2007 he made his second All Star team, and led the league with 50 stolen bases. In 2009, he paced the circuit in doubles for the second time with 56.

Unfortunately, the best of his career was largely lost on the broader baseball community. From 2001-2011, Baltimore never won more than 78 games. While Roberts was often excellent, his teams were decidedly awful.

Decline

Roberts began a steep decline phase in 2011. Injuries quickly derailed his career. He played in just 39 games that season. In his final three seasons with the Orioles, Roberts averaged just 44 games per year and was largely ineffective when he did play. Baltimore did win the Wild Card in 2012, but Roberts was sidelined for the ALDS against the Yankees.

Roberts was a free agent for the first time in his career heading into 2014. He signed with the Yankees. Roberts was given first crack at the second base job among a group of fellow aging former stars. While he was respectable, the team struggled to keep its head above water. Roberts was released in August– just a matter of a few weeks after Alfonso Soriano as it turned out. He never played in the big leagues again.

Hall of Fame?

Brian Roberts was quietly excellent for most of a decade with the Orioles. He was largely underappreciated at the time– a product of playing on some of the worst Orioles teams ever.

By JAWS he is the 58th best second baseman in history. An excellent career to be sure, but well shy of Hall of Fame standards.

Like Soriano, Roberts is probably going to fall off the ballot after his first year. Both players had star caliber seasons. Neither player sustained that level of play long enough to build a Hall of Fame resume.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Paul Konerko

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

24. Paul Konerko

JAWS: 24.6 (54.8 Average HOF 1B)

Paul Konerko was drafted 13th overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of Chaparral HS in Scottsdale, AZ in 1994. Although he was drafted as a catcher, Konerko shifted from behind the plate while still in the minors. He dabbled at third base, and in left field, but settled at first. Konerko’s offensive production carried him to Baseball America Top-100 prospect status each year from 1995-1998 with a peak rank of #2 before his final season in the minors.

The Dodgers gave Konerko brief tastes of the big leagues in 1997 and 1998. Despite his minor league success, he failed to impress. With veteran first baseman Eric Karros entrenched, and his own viability at other positions very much in question, Konerko became expendable. In July, 1998 the Dodgers traded Konerko to the Reds for All Star closer Jeff Shaw and promising left-hander Dennys Reyes.

The 22-year-old Konerko similarly failed to impress during his brief stint with Cincinnati. With Sean Casey, himself 23, in the process of establishing his career with the Reds, Konerko was again blocked. In November, 1998, the Reds dealt Konerko to the White Sox for another future All Star, and Franchise Phenom (for Seattle), center fielder Mike Cameron.

Home on the South Side

The White Sox immediately installed Konerko in their every day lineup beginning in 1999. Given the opportunity to settle into the big leagues, Konerko quickly established himself as an above-average hitter. From 1999-2002, Konerko averaged .294/.356/.499, 118 OPS+, 26 homers, and 95 RBI. He was an integral part of some ferocious White Sox lineups including the 2000 A.L. Central champions.

After making his first All Star team in 2002, Konerko struggled mightily in 2003. As the Sox battled for a playoff spot, Konerko limped to a miserable 83 OPS+ and -0.6 bWAR. The Sox finished four games behind the Twins. Fans and media alike were highly critical of their star first baseman.

Konerko rebounded in a big way in 2004. He set career highs with 41 homers and 117 RBI. At age 28, Konerko received MVP votes for the first time in his career. The toughness and resiliency he showed in bouncing back from his failed 2003 season endeared him to White Sox fans as never before.

2005

Coming off a huge season in 2004, Konerko was poised to lead the 2005 White Sox on one of the most improbable championship runs in history. Konerko produced a near carbon copy of 2004 with another 40 homer, 100 RBI campaign. The Sox won 99 games and the A.L. Central title. Konerko made his second All Star team and finished sixth in the MVP race.

“Paulie” was an absolute force during the 2005 post season. He clubbed two homers and drove in four runs in Chicago’s sweep of the Red Sox in the ALDS. His tie-breaking two run shot in sixth inning of Game 3 was an exclamation point on a dominant series for the Sox.

Konerko added two more homers and seven RBI in the ALCS as the Sox defeated the Angels in five games. He was named the series MVP.

Chicago held the home field advantage in the World Series against the Houston Astros. The Sox took the opener, but the Astros threatened to tie the series in Game 2. With Houston leading 4-2 with two outs in the seventh, Konerko stepped to the plate with the bases loaded.

The Sox hung on to win Game 2. They completed the sweep in Houston to win the franchise’s first world series championship since 1917. Paul Konerko was an instrumental figure in ending the 87-year drought between White Sox championships– the second-longest such drought in baseball history.

Captain

Following the glory of 2005, the White Sox named Konerko the fourth Team Captain in franchise history. His first-class work ethic and integrity would continue to cement his legacy as one of the most beloved players in White Sox history.

From 2006-2012, Konerko remained one of the most consistently productive hitters in baseball. He averaged .287/.369/.510, 129 OPS+, 30 homers, and 92 RBI. Konerko made four more All Star teams, and received MVP votes three times during this stretch.

The Sox made the playoffs just once more during Konerko’s tenure as A.L. Central champions in 2008.

Despite declining production, Konerko hung around in a leadership capacity in 2013-2014 before retiring after 16 seasons with the White Sox.

Hall of Fame?

Paul Konerko is one of the greatest, and most popular players in White Sox history. He is the starting first baseman and fifth place hitter on our all-time White Sox team here at Franchise Phenoms. His place in White Sox lore is firmly established.

Unfortunately for Konerko and White Sox fans alike, it appears that 2020 will be his lone year on the ballot. He falls well below the established standards for Hall of Fame first basemen.

Even if Konerko never earns enshrinement in Cooperstown, there is little doubt that he will go down in history as one of the all-time great White Sox. For Chicago fans who lived through the lean years between championships, and for those who witnessed the improbable euphoria of 2005, Paul Konerko’s memory will endure.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Billy Wagner

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

25. Billy Wagner

JAWS: 23.7 (32.5 Average HOF RP)

Billy Wagner was drafted 12th overall by the Houston Astros out of Ferrum College in Virginia in 1993. Although he was largely deployed as a starter on his climb through the Astros system, Wagner’s future was in the bullpen. After a single hitter cameo in the big leagues in 1995, Wagner was in the big leagues for good by June of 1996.

Listed at 5-10, 180 pounds, the undersized lefty pumped upper 90s fastballs past hitters while seldom needing a second pitch. For 16 seasons, Billy Wagner was one of the top relief pitchers in the game.

In nine seasons with the Astros, Wagner was utterly dominant. In 464 games, he finished with a 171 ERA+. He is Houston’s all-time leader in saves (225), WHIP (1.04), K/9 (12.4), and H/9 (5.9). Wagner was a three-time All Star in Houston. In 1999 he was Rolaids Relief Man, and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He received MVP votes in 1999 and 2003.

Although the Astros made the playoffs four times with Wagner as their closer, the club was never able to advance past the NLDS.

Heading Back East

Following the 2003 season, with Wagner becoming more expensive, the Astros traded him to the Phillies. Wagner was better still in Philadelphia. In 2004-2005, Wagner posted a 240 ERA+. He was an All Star in 2005.

Wagner became a free agent after the 2005 season. He signed a four-year contract with the Mets. Wagner remained dominant during his early years in New York. He finished with a 183 ERA+ mark over 183 games for the Mets. He was twice an All Star, and finished sixth in the 2006 Cy Young voting.

The Mets made the post season once during Wagner’s tenure. In 2006, Wagner recorded two saves in the Mets sweep of the Dodgers in the NLDS. The Mets lost a heartbreaking seven-game NLCS to the eventual world champion Cardinals.

Wagner’s age-37 season was marred by injuries. He made just two appearances for the Mets in 2009 before he was dealt to the Red Sox in August.

He closed out his career with a dominant 2010 campaign with the Braves. Wagner made the All Star team for the seventh time in his career, and helped the Braves to a Wild Card berth.

Hall of Fame?

Billy Wagner is, without question, one of the best relievers in history. From 1996-2008, Wagner’s consistent dominance of the late innings in the National League was a given.

Wagner is now in his fifth season on the ballot. He is the top remaining eligible relief pitcher by JAWS. Unfortunately, he faces a steep uphill climb after earning just 16.7% of the vote in 2019.

The pure reliever is still a relatively new problem for voters to grapple with. The candidacies of Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman both resulted in quick enshrinement. It is clear that Wagner is not viewed on par with those late-inning legends. Still, Wagner is sixth all-time in saves and seventh among relievers in Win Probability Added.

The likelihood is that Wagner continues to gain votes in the coming years, but ultimately falls short of election by the BBWAA. Lee Smith‘s selection by the Veteran’s Committee in 2019 may be his best-case scenario.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (1-2)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.    

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series: 

Players 3-5 by JAWS. Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Larry Walker

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

2. Roger Clemens

JAWS: 102.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roger Clemens was born in Dayton, Ohio.  When he was as sophomore in high school, he moved to Sugar Land, Texas. After graduating from Spring Woods High School in Houston, Clemens attended San Jacinto Junior College before transferring to the University of Texas. After two excellent seasons at Texas, the Boston Red Sox selected him 19th overall in the 1983 draft.

As an advanced college arm, Clemens rose quickly through the Boston system. He made his big league debut in May, 1984. Clemens quickly established himself as one of the most promising young arms in the game.

By 1986, Clemens ascended to the top of the baseball world. In 33 starts, he led the league in wins (24), ERA (2.48), and WHIP (0.97). The Red Sox cruised to the A.L. East title and advanced to the World Series before losing to the Mets. He was the unanimous A.L. Cy Young winner and took 19 of 28 first-place votes for MVP to secure that honor as well.

Clemens was again dominant in 1987.  In 36 starts, he finished with a 2.97 ERA and 256 strikeouts in 281.2 innings.  He led the league in wins (20), complete games (18), shutouts (7), FIP (2.91), and strikeout/walk ratio (3.08).  He received 21 of 28 first-place votes to win his second straight Cy Young.

In his late-20s, Clemens would solidify his legacy as one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history.  From 1988-1992, Clemens posted an average line of 253 innings, 18 wins, 236 strikeouts, 2.62 ERA, 159 ERA+, 2.53 FIP, and 8.0 bWAR.  He was an All Star in four of the five seasons and finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting in each of his All Star seasons. 

The Red Sox won the A.L. East in both 1988 and 1990.  Both times they were swept by the Oakland Athletics in the ALCS.  

Clemens won his third, and final, Cy Young with the Red Sox in 1991.  He led the league in ERA (2.62), innings (271.1), strikeouts (241), and ERA+ (165).    

From 1993-1996, Clemens clearly slowed down a bit as he entered his 30s.  He was healthy enough to average 186 innings per season, and effective enough to post a 130 ERA+ over that stretch.  Although he was still one of the best pitchers in the game, he appeared to be trending the wrong direction.

When Clemens hit the open-market as a free agent after the 1996 season, both he and the team seemed ready for a change.  The best Red Sox pitcher since Cy Young signed a three-year contract with the division-rival Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto

Clearly motivated by the doubters in Boston, and nationwide, Clemens responded in a big way.  During his two seasons with Toronto, he was again the best pitcher in baseball.  Clemens won back-to-back Cy Youngs for the second time in his career winning 41 games and posting an absurd 196 ERA+ in the process.

Even with the best pitcher on the planet, Toronto failed to make the playoffs in 1997-1998.  With just one year remaining on his contract, Toronto dealt Clemens to the New York Yankees just before the 1999 season.  

New York

From 1999-2003, Clemens alternated brilliance and mediocrity in New York.  He averaged 114 ERA+ over that stretch and was twice an All Star.  He won his sixth Cy Young on the strength of a 20-3 record in 2001. 

The Yankees made the postseason every year, and advanced to the World Series four times.  In 1999 and 2000, Roger Clemens helped pitch Boston’s greatest rival to World Series championships.  It was salt in the wounds of a Red Sox Nation still burdened by the Curse of the Bambino.

Houston

A free agent again after 2003, Clemens was headed for his age-41 season.  Although it appeared he would retire, Clemens instead opted to follow his friend and teammate Andy Pettitte to the Houston Astros.

Clemens took to the National League very well, compiling a 38-18 record and 180 ERA+ over three seasons in Houston.  He won his seventh, and final, Cy Young in 2004. He was just the fourth player at the time to win the award in both leagues.  He helped pitch the Astros to their first World Series appearance in franchise history in 2005, but they were swept by the Chicago White Sox.

Semi-Retirement and Retirement

By 2006, Clemens was looking for opportunities to pitch for contenders with reduced overall levels of commitment as he apparently contemplated outright retirement.  Both 2006 with Houston, and 2007 in a return engagement with the Yankees, were shortened seasons in which Clemens did not pitch until June. 

Although he was still effective in these reduced seasons, the rigors of his brilliant 24-year career had taken their toll.

Roger Clemens retired after the 2007 season.  

Hall of Fame?

Roger Clemens is one of the few pitchers in history for whom you could make a legitimate case as the best hurler of all-time.  

Over his incredible 24 seasons in the big leagues, Clemens cemented his place among baseball’s all-time greats. 

Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards, the most in history.  His 139.0 bWAR as a pitcher is third-most in history, and the most since integration.  He is third all-time with 4672 strikeouts, and ninth in wins at 354.

For all of his on-field brilliance, Clemens is held back by a variety of other factors that have cast a dark cloud over his legacy.  His personal temperament and character have been called into question in a variety of contexts.  On the baseball side specifically, the court of public opinion has pretty clearly judged him guilty of steroid use during his career as well.   

Each new round of Hall of Fame balloting has the potential to provide new information for how the public perception of his career may, or may not, be changing.  Clemens climbed to 57.3% of the ballot in 2018.  With four years remaining, it is unclear whether or not he will be able to make up the precious ground needed to get him to the 75% mark required for enshrinement in Cooperstown.

As the baseball world continues to try to sort through the mess left in the aftermath of the Steroid Era, Clemens’s legacy remains in limbo.  Regardless of one’s personal opinion on how to judge these players, Roger Clemens is one of the most accomplished pitchers in big league history.  However you choose to remember him, he will be remembered.  In the end, that may be all that’s left for the Rocket.

1. Barry Bonds

JAWS: 117.8 (53.5 Average HOF LF)

Barry Bonds was born into Major League Baseball. The son of All Star outfielder Bobby Bonds, Barry was a second round pick of the San Francisco Giants out of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo in 1982. When the Bonds family and the Giants ended up $5,000 apart in the negotiations for his signing bonus, Barry enrolled at Arizona State. After an excellent career for the Sun Devils, Barry was drafted sixth overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1985. Bonds began the 1986 season in Triple-A, but was in the big leagues by June.

Bonds immediately established himself as one of the best all around players in the game. His broad base of tools and skills allowed him to average 124 OPS+ and 5.9 bWAR from 1986-1989. Although the Pirates turned in just one winning season in his first four, Bonds emerged as the center piece of a young, talented roster that would dominate the N.L. East in the early 90s.

1990 marked the first of three straight N.L. East championships for the Pirates. Each time they were defeated in the NLCS, first by the Cincinnati Reds, then by the Atlanta Braves in back-to-back seasons. Bonds won his first MVP award in 1990 when he led the league in slugging (.565) and OPS+ (170) while hitting 33 homers and stealing 52 bases. In 1991, he followed it up with league leading marks in OBP (.410) and OPS+ (160) en route to a second place MVP finish. In 1992, he won his second MVP after leading the league in runs (109), walks (127), OBP (.456), slugging (.624), and OPS+ (204).

San Francisco

When Barry Bonds hit free agency after the 1992 season, he was unquestionably the best player available. Entering his age-28 season, he was still young, but his personality, and asking price, limited the number of teams willing to pursue him. The new ownership group in San Francisco signed Bonds to the largest contract in baseball at $43 million over six years.

In San Francisco, Bonds remained one of the most transcendent players in the game. Over the life of his initial contract from 1993-1998, Bonds averaged .307/.445/.617, 182 OPS+, 39 homers, and 32 stolen bases. He was an All Star each season, and won his third MVP in 1993. Despite his brilliant performance, the Giants reached the playoffs just once, a division championship followed by first round defeat in 1997.

Following the 1998 home run craze, baseball had clearly undergone a paradigm shift. The high tide of offensive explosion experienced league wide during the previous decade swept the nation, including Barry Bonds.

By 2000, Bonds, now 35, was poised to take his game to another level. From 2000-2004, Bonds averaged .339/.535/.781, 241 OPS+, 52 homers, 174 walks, and 10.2 bWAR. It was the most utterly dominant stretch of offensive play in baseball history. He won the MVP each year from 2001-2004. The Giants made the playoffs in 2000, 2002, and 2003, peaking with an N.L. pennant in 2002.

Old age and injuries slowed Bonds into his 40s. Although no longer the otherworldly force he had been earlier in the decade, he was still among the best hitters in the game. In his final three seasons, from 2005-2007, Bonds averaged .274/.464/.561, 163 OPS+, but just 90 games. After he broke Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record in late 2007, his career came to an ignominious end. With mounting legal troubles presenting an ever-present cloud over his play, Bonds was not offered a contract to play in 2008. Despite coming off a season in which he led the league in walks (132), and OBP (.480), Barry Bonds never played again.

Hall of Fame?

Barry Bonds is arguably the best player to ever play Major League Baseball. His 162.8 bWAR is fourth best in history, and the highest of any player since integration. His seven MVP awards are the most in history (no other player has more than three). He is baseball’s all-time leader in home runs (762), and walks (2,558). He ranks in the top five in a host of other categories.

Like Clemens, the entirety of the argument around Bonds’s place in baseball history is centered on his steroid use during his peak seasons.

Bonds and Clemens are both trending fairly well in the ballots that have been made publicly available so far. Unfortunately, they have not gained much support from returning voters, a metric which pretty clearly indicates that many are not changing their opinions on the candidacies of two of the game’s greatest players.

The symmetry of their careers and candidacies is remarkable. Each player has a claim to the title of best player in history on his respective side of the ball. Each player dominated the game on a level that may never be matched. In the end, their fates are inextricably tied together. They have trended almost identically in the Hall of Fame balloting, and it’s not hard to see that this is a neither, or both, proposition with respect to Cooperstown.

For Hall of Fame junkies, there is perhaps no more important issue to monitor over the coming years.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (3-5)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.    

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series: 

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman.

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

5. Larry Walker

JAWS: 58.7 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Larry Walker signed with the Montreal Expos as an amateur free agent out of British Columbia in November, 1984.

Walker made his big league debut with the Expos. Over six seasons in Montreal, he produced a .281/.353/.483 line, 128 OPS+, and 21.1 bWAR.

Heading into 1995, Walker signed a free agent contract with the Colorado Rockies. In 10 seasons with Colorado, he produced a .334/.426/.618 line, 147 OPS+, and 48.3 bWAR. He was one of the best all around players in the game during his time with the Rockies.

Walker spent the final two seasons of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. He remained an excellent hitter when healthy, posting a 134 OPS+ in 2004-2005. Walker helped the Cardinals reach the playoffs in both years.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Larry Walker’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.565, 141 OPS+. A true five-tool talent, Walker contributed in every facet of the game. He was a five-time All Star who won seven Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, and three batting titles. He received MVP votes eight times, winning the award in 1997.

Walker ranks as the 10th best right fielder in history by JAWS. He is above the average of Hall of Fame right fielders, giving serious weight to his candidacy. Every right fielder with a higher JAWS score than Walker is already enshrined in Cooperstown.

2019 is Walker’s ninth year on the ballot. His candidacy seems to have suffered from a combination of the Coors Field effect, and the number of his seasons that were cut short by injuries. 

He did experience a surge last year, jumping from 21.9% of the vote in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018.  With two years remaining, he has significant ground to cover. It appears that he will make substantial gains this year, but it’s unclear if he will be able to close the gap to the elusive 75% mark.

For those who saw him play, Larry Walker’s tremendous physical talent placed him among the game’s all-time great five-tool players.  Larry Walker was a Hall of Fame player.  Hopefully he receives the formal honors that go with it.

4. Mike Mussina

JAWS: 63.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Mike Mussina was born and raised in Central Pennsylvania. A 1987 graduate of Montoursville High School, Mussina was drafted in the 11th round by the Orioles that June. Rather than sign a professional contract, he enrolled at Stanford. In 1990, after his Junior season, Mussina was once again drafted by Baltimore, this time with the 20th overall pick.

As an advanced college arm, Mussina was sent directly to Double-A after signing, and reached Triple-A by the end of his draft year. Baseball America ranked him their #19 prospect heading into 1991. Mussina returned to Triple-A Rochester for some additional seasoning. After 19 minor league starts, he made his big league debut in August, 1991.

Mussina was immediately one of the best pitchers in the American League. After a strong showing in his rookie season, “Moose” made the All Star team for the first time in 1992. He would receive that honor four more times as a member of the Orioles.

In 1996-1997, Mussina led Baltimore’s pitching staff to back-to-back playoff appearances, first as a Wild Card, then to their first A.L. East title in 14 seasons. The Orioles were defeated in the ALDS both years.

Although the Orioles struggled during Mussina’s final three seasons in Baltimore, Moose remained one of the best pitchers in the American League.

In 10 seasons with the Orioles, Mussina went 147-81 with a 3.53 ERA, and 130 ERA+. After 2000, heading into his age-32 season, Mussina hit the free agent market as one of the most sought-after hurlers in the game. Much to the chagrin of Orioles fans, Mussina inked a massive six year, $87 million contract with their division rivals, the New York Yankees.

Mussina spent the last eight years of his career in the Bronx. In 2001, he made good on the first year of his new contract with a 17-11 record, and a league-leading 2.92 FIP. His 7.1 bWAR was tops on a team full of superstars that would go on to win the American League pennant.

The Yankees made the playoffs in each of Mussina’s first seven seasons with the club. When they made it back to the World Series in 2003, Mussina was again the best player on the roster at 6.6 bWAR.

In his late-30s, Mussina was more often an average pitcher than a star. From 2004-2008, he averaged 30 starts, 14 wins, 179 innings, and 107 ERA+. He retired after the 2008 season, despite coming off his first 20-win season, and finishing with his best ERA+ (131) since his first year in New York.

Hall of Fame?

Over the course of his 18-year career, Mike Mussina was one of the most consistently excellent, and durable starters in the game. He finished with a career record of 270-153, 3.68 ERA, and 123 ERA+.

Moose was a five-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, FIP, and walk rate once each during his career. Although he never won a Cy Young, he finished six, or better, nine times including a second place finish in 1999. He was also an excellent fielder, winning seven Gold Gloves.

JAWS ranks Mussina as the 29th best starting pitcher in history, above the average for Hall of Fame starters.

Although he never quite had the same stretch of dominance as the most legendary starters in history, Mike Mussina is a Hall of Famer. For 18 seasons he was one of the most reliably excellent pitchers in the game, all while working in the American League East during the peak of the steroid era.

Now in his sixth year on the ballot, Mussina appears nearly certain of eventual induction. After earning 63.5% of the vote in 2018, he is gaining additional support, and could be elected as soon as this year.

3. Curt Schilling

JAWS: 64.1 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Curt Schilling was born in Anchorage, Alaska. Schilling’s father, a sergeant in the U.S. Army, relocated his family several time during Curt’s youth. As something of a late-bloomer, Schilling went undrafted out of Shadown Mountain High School in Phoenix. He enrolled at Yavapai College, north of Phoenix, and was picked by the Boston Red Sox in the January phase of the 1986 draft. He signed in May and began his pro career that summer.

In July, 1988 the Red Sox packaged Schilling with another future star, outfielder Brady Anderson, in a deal to land veteran pitcher Mike Boddicker from the Baltimore Orioles. Boddicker was instrumental in helping the Red Sox secure the A.L. East title, but Baltimore would win the trade in the long term.

Schilling made his big league debut with Baltimore in 1988, but failed to stick with the club until a successful stint in the bullpen during the second half of 1990. That off season, Schilling was packaged with fellow future All Stars Steve Finley, and Pete Harnisch, in a deal to acquire slugger Glenn Davis from the Houston Astros.

After one mostly unremarkable season working out of the Houston bullpen, the Astros traded Schilling to the Phillies for right-hander Jason Grimsley. Although he would have a solid 15-year career of his own, Grimsley spent the entire 1992 season in the minors before Houston released him the following spring. Curt Schilling would go on to star for the Phillies.

In 1992, Schilling spent his age-25 season split between the bullpen and the starting rotation. By the time the dust had settled, he had worked 226.1 innings at 150 ERA+ with a league-leading 0.99 WHIP. Although he struggled to replicate that dominance over the next three seasons, Schilling did help pitch the Phillies to the 1993 World Series.

For all of his tremendous talent, Schilling struggled to realize his potential. Heading into his age-29 season in 1996, Schilling had 805 big league innings under his belt at 109 ERA+. Unexpectedly, 1996 would be the season that charted a new course for the remaining 12 seasons of his career.

From 1996-1999, Schilling averaged 30 starts, 222 innings, 238 strikeouts, and 137 ERA+. He made his first All Star team during his age-30 season.

Despite having one of the best starters in the league heading up their staff, the Phillies floundered. They rattled off seven straight losing seasons after their N.L. championship in 1993. In 2000, they traded their 33-year-old ace to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In Arizona, Schilling was paired with Randy Johnson to establish one of the most dominant 1-2 punches the game has ever seen.

In 2001, Johnson won the Cy Young, and Schilling finished second. The Diamondbacks won the N.L. West, and cruised into the playoffs ready to roll out their pair of aces. Schilling made six starts during the post season, including three in the World Series. He finished 4-0, allowing just six runs over 48.1 innings to help the Diamondbacks win the World Series in just their fourth season in existence. Schilling was the World Series MVP.

In 2002, Johnson and Schilling headed up the Cy Young balloting for the second straight season. The D’Backs won the division again, but were swept in the first round by the Cardinals.

Schilling was strong again in 2003, but after Arizona failed to make the playoffs, the club decided to go another direction. They agreed to deal Schilling to the Boston Red Sox. There, the 37-year-old ace was expected to form the same kind of dominant playoff duo that had brought a championship to the desert with another Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.

Schilling lived up to his end of the bargain, leading the A.L. with 21 wins, and a 5.80 K/BB ratio. The Red Sox made the playoffs as the Wild Card team. Schilling won three of his four playoff starts. The most famous of which was the legendary “Bloody Sock” Game Six of the ALCS as the Red Sox improbably won their third straight game to even the series with the Yankees. He also beat the Cardinals in Game Two of the World Series, putting a final stamp on his legacy as one of the most important players on the team that ended the Curse of the Bambino.

Schilling’s final season was 2007. At age 40, he made 24 regular season starts– enough to help Boston win the A.L. East title. He then went 3-0 in four playoff starts as the Red Sox won their second World Series in four years.

Hall of Fame?

Curt Schilling’s 20-year career was truly unique. Schilling compiled 79% of his career bWAR after the age of 30. His career arc defied logic making him an unlikely Hall of Fame candidate. He finished with a record of 216-146, 3.46 ERA, and 127 ERA+.

Schilling was a six-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, strikeouts, and WHIP twice each during his career. He finished fourth, or better, in the Cy Young voting four times, including three second-place finishes in a four year stretch from 2001-2004.

JAWS ranks Schilling as the 27th best starter in history, two spots ahead of Mussina. Despite his unique career path, Schilling is 15th all-time in strikeouts (3116). His 4.383 K/BB ratio is fifth best in history.

Now in his 7th year on the ballot, Schilling still has some ground to cover. After finishing with just 51.2% of the vote a year ago, his induction is not a foregone conclusion. His relative lack of support appears to be a combination of his low win total, a crowded ballot, and a series of controversial statements he has made since his retirement.

For whatever holes you might poke in Schilling’s resume, he is clearly a Hall of Famer based on merit alone. His late ascent to dominance should be easily counterbalanced by the extent of that dominance once he achieved it. Beyond that, his postseason resume, which includes World Series appearances with three different franchises, and a central role in winning three championships complete with signature moments, should remove any lingering doubt.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (6-8)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:  

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

8.  Edgar Martinez

JAWS:  56.0 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)

Edgar Martinez was born in New York. As a child, he moved to Puerto Rico to live with his grandparents. Martinez remained in Puerto Rico through his teenage years and graduated from Dorado High School. In December 1982, at the age of 20, the Seattle Mariners signed him out of a tryout camp in his hometown. Edgar methodically climbed through the Seattle system and made his big league debut in 1987.

Although he debuted in 1987, by the end of 1989, Martinez had just 280 big league plate appearances to his credit. Despite his clear mastery of the Triple-A level, Martinez was stuck. Although the Mariners received virtually no production at third base during those years, it took the team until 1990 (Martinez’s age-27 season) to give him regular at-bats at the big league level.

Once his path to playing time was cleared, Martinez immediately established himself as an excellent offensive player, and credible third baseman. From 1990-1991, he averged 135 OPS+ and 5.8 bWAR. Edgar broke out in 1992, winning his first batting title (.343) and leading the league in doubles (46) en route to his first All Star selection, and a Silver Slugger.

A freak leg injury in a 1993 pre-season exhibition game limited him to just 42 games that season. Martinez was healthier, and more productive, in 1994. Still, he averaged just 116 OPS+ during his shortened age 30-31 seasons.

Heading into 1995, it was fair to wonder if Edgar Martinez’s best days were already behind him. Instead, Martinez ended up being the best offensive player on a resurgent Seattle club that won the A.L. West. He led the league in hitting, OBP, and OPS+ with a .356/.479/.628, 185 OPS+ line. His 121 runs and 52 doubles were also tops in the A.L. Seattle beat the Yankees in the ALDS, but lost in six games to Cleveland in the ALCS.

Rather than suffer a steep decline in his 30s, Martinez proved to be better with age. From 1995-2003, he averaged .321/.438/.558, 159 OPS+, and 5.2 bWAR. Playing almost exclusively as a Designated Hitter, Martinez cemented his legacy as one of the greatest hitters of his generation.

Seattle won the A.L. West again in 1997 and 2001, as well as the 2000 Wild Card, but never made the World Series during Martinez’s career. He retired after the 2004 season.

Hall of Fame?

Edgar Martinez spent his entire 18-year career with the Seattle Mariners. At a time when the team could not hang onto their other stars, Edgar was a consistently excellent, and stable force for their organization. He hit .312/.418/.515, 147 OPS+ for his career. He was a seven-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers, and two batting titles. Edgar received MVP votes five times, peaking at third place in his historic 1995 season.

JAWS treats Edgar Martinez as a third-baseman, ranking him 11th all-time. In reality, Edgar served as Seattle’s DH in 1403 games, and made less than half that number of appearances in the field.

Although other Hall of Famers such as Frank Thomas and Harold Baines spent significant parts of their careers at DH, Martinez has spent the last ten years as the first pure DH to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate. His lack of defensive contributions, combined with his comparatively low counting stats stemming from his late breakthrough in the big leagues have held him back despite his excellent rate numbers.

After receiving 70.4% of the vote in his 9th season a year ago, it appears that Edgar Martinez will be elected by the BBWAA in his 10th, and final, year on the ballot. He would join former Mariners teammates Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson in representing a golden age of Mariners baseball in Cooperstown.

7.  Scott Rolen

JAWS:  56.9 (55.6 Average HOF 3B)

Scott Rolen was born and raised in Southern Indiana. After graduating from Jasper High School in 1993, Rolen was a second round draft pick of the Philadelphia Phillies. By the time his first full professional season had concluded, Rolen was already recognized as one of the top prospects in baseball. He was ranked in Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects three straight seasons beginning in 1995.

Rolen made his big league debut in 1996, and became an everyday player in 1997 at the age of 22. He won the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1997, producing 4.5 bWAR and 121 OPS+.

He was better still in 1998. Rolen combined a 139 OPS+ with Gold Glove defense to produce 6.7 bWAR. It was his best season with the Phillies.

In seven seasons with Philadelphia, Rolen hit .282/.373/.504, 126 OPS+, and produced 29.3 bWAR. The Phillies failed to make the postseason during Rolen’s tenure. With their star third baseman heading towards free agency, the club traded Rolen at the 2002 deadline to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Upon arriving in St. Louis, Rolen became a driving force in the Cardinals’ runaway effort to win the N.L. Central. A contract extension kept Rolen in St. Louis for six seasons. He would go on to hit .286/.370/.510, 127 OPS+, and produce 25.9 bWAR. The Cardinals made the playoffs in four of his six seasons, won two National League pennants, and the 2006 World Series.

After 2007, coming off his second down year in three, the Cardinals swapped Rolen for Toronto third baseman Troy Glaus. Rolen rebounded in Toronto, but with the Jays out of contention in 2009, they traded him to the Cincinnati Reds in July.

Rolen spent the final three-plus seasons of his storied career in Cincinnati. Although he had just one star caliber season for the Reds, he did contribute to two N.L. Central titles.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Scott Rolen hit .281/.364/.490, 122 OPS+. He was a consistently excellent defensive player, and finished his career 12th in games played at third base. Rolen was a seven-time All Star who won eight Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He received MVP votes four times, including a fourth place finish in 2004.

Rolen ranks as the 10th best third baseman by JAWS, one spot ahead of Edgar Martinez. Unlike Martinez, Rolen is a full-fledged third baseman, and ultimately the superior overall player. Every eligible third baseman ranked above him is in the Hall of Fame.

After receiving just 10.2% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, Rolen faces an uphill battle in the coming years. The early publicly available returns indicate he should gain some ground this year, but his election is hardly imminent, or certain.

Rolen was a superior overall player to several players who are currently tracking better than him in the voting. Ultimately, I suspect that Scott Rolen will gradually gain support, and eventually earn induction in Cooperstown.

6.  Roy Halladay

JAWS:  57.5 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roy Halladay was born and raised in the Denver, Colorado area. A 1995 graduate of Arvada West High School, Halladay was selected 17th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays that June. Halladay performed well in the low minors, and was pushed aggressively through the Blue Jays system. He reached Triple-A during his age-20 season, and made his big league debut the following year.

Like the Blue Jays organization, the scouting community agreed that Halladay was a premium prospect. Baseball America ranked him 38th, or better, each season from 1997-1999. In retrospect, it’s easy to see that Halladay may not have been as well prepared for the big leagues as it appeared at first glance. His strikeout/walk numbers in the high minors were unremarkable– a trend that followed him to the big leagues.

After he was battered for 19 games in 2000, Halladay carried a 5.77 ERA through 231 innings. He was sent all the way back to High Class-A in 2001. It was during his return to the minors that Halladay famously overhauled his mechanics and mental approach. By the time he returned to the big leagues in July, he was a completely different pitcher. He finished the season with 105.1 big league innings at 145 ERA+.

In 2002, Halladay proved that his transformation was permanent. He made the All Star team, and led the league with 239.1 innings at 157 ERA+.

In 2003, he upped the ante with 266 innings, also leading the league with 22 wins, nine complete games, and a 6.38 K/BB ratio. He was again an All Star, and won 26 of 28 first place votes for the Cy Young.

After injuries in 2004-2005 limited him to just 274.2 total innings, Halladay resumed his dominance of the American League in 2006. He finished his Blue Jays career with four straight top-five Cy Young finishes, and 930.1 innings at 142 ERA+.

Halladay’s tenure in Toronto came to a crossroads after the 2009 season. Despite his individual brilliance, Halladay had been unable to elevate the Blue Jays to the playoffs at any point in his career. In December, Toronto traded him to the defending champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Halladay was brilliant in his initiation to the National League in 2010. He led the league with 21 wins, 250.2 innings, and 1.1 BB/9. The Phillies won their fourth straight N.L. East title. Halladay threw a no-hitter in the NLDS opener against the Reds, but the Phillies fell to the Giants in the NLCS. After the season, Halladay won the Cy Young, making him just the fifth player to have won the award in both leagues at the time.

He was similarly excellent in 2011, pacing the N.L. in ERA+ (163) and FIP (2.20). The Phillies won the division again before losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Hallday finished second in the Cy Young race.

Injuries took their toll on Halladay after 2011. In his last two seasons, he struggled to remain on the mound, and was mostly ineffective when he did. He retired after his age-36 season.

Hall of Fame?

In his 16-year career, Roy Halladay established himself as one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. He finished with a record of 203-105 and 131 ERA+. He was even more superb in the 11 seasons in the middle of his career. From 2001-2011, he was 175-78 with a 148 ERA+.

Halladay was an eight-time All Star. He led the league in wins twice, and innings four times during his career. In addition to his two Cy Youngs, he finished fifth, or better, another five times in his career including two second-place finishes.

JAWS ranks Halladay as the 43rd best starting pitcher in history. The system is structured to reward peak level dominance, which is essential to Halladay’s case. What he lacks in longevity, and counting stats, he makes up for with his marvelous 11-year peak.

Roy Halladay died tragically in a plane crash on November 7, 2017 at the age of 40.

I have previously mentioned that I prefer to give considerable weight to peak level brilliance when evaluating Hall of Fame candidates. Roy Halladay is a poster boy for the reasons why. Anyone who watched him pitch during his peak knew they were witnessing a Hall of Fame career. Even if he doesn’t check all of the boxes for counting stats, there is little doubt he was one of the best pitchers of his era.

Roy Halladay appears poised to be elected to the Hall of Fame this winter, on the first ballot.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (9-10)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:  

Players 11-15 by JAWS.

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

10.  Andruw Jones

JAWS:  54.7 (57.7 Average HOF CF)

Andruw Jones was born and raised in Willemstad, Curacao.  He signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in July, 1993.  Once he reached the U.S., Jones quickly stood out among his peers.  Baseball America ranked him as their top prospect prior to the 1996 season.

Just 19 in 1996, Jones advanced through three levels of the minor leagues, slugging 34 homers and stealing 30 bases in just 116 games.  He made his big league debut in August, and quickly earned regular playing time.  Jones became an international sensation when he hit .400/.500/.750 with two homers as a teenager in the Braves 1996 World Series loss to the Yankees.

Jones quickly established himself as one of the best defensive center fielders in the game.  He won 10 straight Gold Gloves as a member of the Braves, helping to anchor the defense behind one of the greatest starting rotations in history.  

His offense steadily improved as well.  In 12 seasons with the Braves, Jones hit .263/.342/.497, 113 OPS+.  In 2005 he finished second in the MVP voting when he led the league with 51 homers and 128 RBI in addition to his excellent defense.

The Braves won the N.L. East every season from 1996-2005.  They won the pennant in 1996 and 1999.  Jones was a critical piece of their sustained success.

After appearing in the postseason every year since 1991, the Braves finished third in 2006-2007.  In 2007, Jones produced just 87 OPS+ in his age 30 season and the Braves elected to let him walk away as a free agent.

Jones signed with the Dodgers for 2008, but struggled to remain healthy and effective.  He was released that winter and signed with the Rangers.  Jones spent 2009-2012 in the American League.  He played single seasons in Texas, Chicago, and the final two years of his career with the Yankees where he contributed to back-to-back A.L. East titles.  

Jones starred for two seasons with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japanese Pacific League where he hit 50 homers in 2013-2014, but never returned to the big leagues.  

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Andruw Jones hit .254/.337/.486, 111 OPS+.  A solid hitter, Jones produced nearly as much value in the field and on the bases.  He was a five-time All Star who won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger.  He received MVP votes five times.

Jones ranks as the 11th best center fielder by JAWS.  Although he is just shy of the average mark for the position, that number is boosted by the exceptional careers of several all-time greats.  Jones ranks better than 12 of the 19 Hall of Fame center fielders.  

There is a strange dynamic at play regarding the candidacy of Jones.  For the first 11 years of his career, there was little doubt that Jones was on a Hall of Fame trajectory.  An excellent defensive player who blossomed into an elite hitter, Jones had the benefit of breaking into the big leagues younger than most, and figured to rack up massive counting stats into his 30s.  

Then the last part failed to materialize.  Over the last six years of his career, Jones was an entirely different player.  His athleticism declined with startling rapidity sapping his defensive value to the point where he abandoned center field altogether, and spent significant time at DH during his A.L. years.  He produced just 92 OPS+ and 4.7 bWAR from age 30-35 before washing out of the big leagues for good.

Jones was named on just 7.3% of the ballots during his first year of eligibility.  He is teetering on the brink of falling off the ballot entirely this year.  The voters appear to be aggressively penalizing him for his rapid decline, rather than properly rewarding his magnificent peak. 

For me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer.  If forced to choose, I prefer shorter stretches of brilliance over long-term statistical compilers.  Both have their place in Cooperstown, and Andruw Jones certainly fits into the former category.

9.  Manny Ramirez

JAWS:  54.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Manny Ramirez was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  He moved to the U.S. as a teenager, and graduated from George Washington High School in Manhattan.  The Cleveland Indians drafted him 13th overall in June, 1991.  A supremely talented hitter, Ramirez immediately put himself on the prospect map.  After shredding the high minors in 1993, he earned a big league trial.  Baseball America ranked him as their #7 prospect entering 1994.

The Cleveland Indians were on the verge of becoming one of the most successful teams of the late-90s when Ramirez burst onto the scene.  They were one game out of first when the strike began in 1994.  Cleveland would go on to win five straight A.L. Central titles as Ramirez established himself as one of the best hitters in the game.

During his eight seasons in Cleveland, Ramirez hit .313/.407/.592, 152 OPS+.  He led the league with 165 RBI in 1999 and paced the junior circuit in slugging and OPS in 1999-2000.

Manny hit free agency after the 2000 season.  He was entering his age-29 season coming off three straight top-six MVP finishes.  In a move that would alter the course of two franchises, Ramirez signed with the Boston Red Sox.

In Boston, Manny was exactly as advertised.  He remained of the most feared right-handed hitters in the game for eight seasons with the Red Sox.  His career line in Boston was a virtual carbon copy of that in Cleveland at .312/.411/.588, 155 OPS+.  He won the batting title in 2002 (.349), led the league in slugging in 2004 (.613), and had the highest OBP in the league three times as a member of the Red Sox.

Manny would end up as a central piece of Boston’s turnaround after the turn of the century.  Boston won the Wild Card three straight years beginning in 2003.  Their improbable ALCS comeback against the Yankees in 2004 paved the way for the franchise’s first World Series championship since 1918.  Manny was the World Series MVP in the sweep of the Cardinals.  When they won again in 2007, Manny was still hitting in the middle of the Boston order.

By 2008, Ramirez’s declining defensive value, and generally erratic behavior, had worn thin in Boston.  It became clear that the Red Sox would not sign him to a contract extension after the season.  Although he was still a productive hitter, and they were in the middle of a playoff race, the Red Sox traded Ramirez to the Dodgers at the deadline.

Ramirez dominated the stretch run in Los Angeles, helping the Dodgers to the N.L. West title.  He signed a contract extension in L.A. and helped the Dodgers repeat as division champs the next year, although he was suspended 50 games for PED use.    

When the Dodgers faded in 2010, they let Manny pass to the White Sox via waivers late in August.  He played his final big league game for Tampa in April, 2011.  Although he bounced around the Triple-A Pacific Coast League for three different teams from 2012-2014, he would never return to the Majors. 

Hall of Fame?

In his incredible 19-year career, Manny Ramirez hit .312/.411/.585, 154 OPS+.  His 555 career homers rank 15th all-time.  Manny was a 12-time All Star who won nine Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes 11 times including eight straight top-nine finishes.  

Manny ranks as the 10th best left fielder in history by JAWS.  He is just above the average, and ranks better than 13 of the 20 Hall of Famers at the position.  

Like half-a-dozen players on the current ballot, Ramirez’s candidacy has been torpedoed by steroid use.  Ramirez tested positive three different times during his career leaving a permanent black eye on his resume. 

Although his credentials place him at a level above Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa, the voters have clearly shown that they view Manny closer to that group than to Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Now in his third year of eligibility, Manny clearly needs a shift in the voters’ attitudes toward the steroid era to have any chance of enshrinement in Cooperstown.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (11-15)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series:  

Players 16-20 by JAWS.

Players 21-25 by JAWS.

15.  Lance Berkman

JAWS:  45.7 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

Lance Berkman was born and raised in the Texas Triangle.  A graduate of Canyon High School in New Braunfels, TX northeast of San Antonio, Berkman played his college ball in Houston at Rice University.  The Houston Astros selected Berkman 16th overall in the 1997 draft.  A Baseball America Top-100 Prospect from 1998-2000, Berkman advanced quickly through Houston’s minor league system.  He made his big league debut in July, 1999.

A switch-hitter with power and patience, Berkman quickly established himself as one of the top hitters in the National League.  In 12 seasons with the Astros, Berkman hit .296/.410/.594, 146 OPS+.  He led the league in doubles in 2001 (55) and 2008 (46) and RBI in 2002 (128).  

Berkman contributed to four Astros playoff teams including the 2005 National League Champions.  He was the best player by bWAR on the 2001 N.L. Central Champions, and the 2004 N.L. Wild Card winner.

With the team struggling in 2010, the Astros traded Berkman to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  Serving primarily as a DH, Berkman helped New York secure the Wild Card spot.

Berkman signed with the St. Louis Cardinals heading into 2011.  It would turn out to be one of the best offensive seasons of his career.  The 2011 Cardinals turned a Wild Card berth into the 12th World Series championship in franchise history.  Berkman was a driving force in their victory over the Texas Rangers, hitting .423/.516/.577 with nine runs and five RBI in the seven-game series.

The Cardinals won the Wild Card again in 2012, but Berkman played just 32 games as injuries took their toll.  He finished his career with the Texas Rangers in 2013.

Hall of Fame?

Lance Berkman was a marvelous all around player during his 15-year career.  With a career line of .293/.406/.537, 144 OPS+, Berkman was clearly one of the most dominant hitters of his era.  He was also a versatile defensive player who played at least 166 games at all three outfield spots as well as first base during his career.

He was a six-time All Star who received MVP votes in seven seasons including third-place finishes in 2002 and 2006.

In his first year on the ballot, it is unclear how the voters will treat Berkman.  He spent much of his career surrounded by fellow Hall of Fame caliber talents.  As a result, it is possible that he was underappreciated during his career.

Berkman ranks as the 20th best left fielder by JAWS.  His career 144 OPS+ puts him well above the average for Hall of Fame left fielders.  Minimal defensive value, and a comparatively short career, are probably enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.  

On a loaded ballot, it’s possible Berkman fails to achieve the 5% needed to remain eligible beyond this year.  He probably deserves better than that, but either way, it’s hard to see him standing out among the other stellar hitters on the ballot at this time.  

14.  Andy Pettitte

JAWS:  47.2 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Andy Pettitte was a 1990 graduate of Deer Park High School in Texas.  The New York Yankees selected him as a draft-and-follow candidate in the 22nd round that June.  Pettitte enrolled in San Jacinto College in Houston and showed enough in the spring of 1991 that the Yankees signed him that May.  Pettitte climbed methodically through the Yankees system. 

By 1995, Pettitte was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.  He made his debut that season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting, and helping New York to the Wild Card. 

The Yankees made the playoffs every season from 1995-2003.  With Pettitte providing a steady presence in their rotation, New York won the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000.  Pettite finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young four times during this period.

After a tough loss to the Marlins in the 2003 World Series, Pettitte became a free agent.  Entering his age-32 season, Pettitte returned home to pitch for the Houston Astros.  From 2004-2006 with the Astros, Pettitte was one of the best pitchers in the National League.  He helped the team to Wild Card berths in 2004-2005, and the National League pennant in 2005.  

After the 2006 season, Pettitte returned to the Yankees.  He spent most of the next seven years pitching for the Yankees, although he sat out the 2011 season entirely.  Pettitte pitched for four more Yankees playoff teams during this stretch, and won his fifth World Series in 2009.

Hall of Fame?

Andy Pettitte finished his 18-year career with a record of 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, and 3.74 FIP.  He was a three-time All Star who finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting five times.  

In his first year on the ballot, Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy is probably the dividing mark for the members of the storied Yankees dynasty of that era.  While Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are no doubt first-ballot Hall of Famers, the team’s success did little for the candidacies of Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, both of whom have already fallen off the ballot. 

Pettitte is pretty clearly in the middle of those five.  He will surely show better than Posada or Williams, but won’t achieve the same type of perhaps unanimous support as Jeter or Rivera.  

Pettitte falls considerably short of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher.  He is probably one of the top-100 starters in history, but that hardly ensures enshrinement in Cooperstown.  

My gut feeling is that history will struggle with how to properly view Pettitte’s career.  At different times, he was both one of the best pitchers in the game, and highly overrated.  There is little doubt that if he had played for another organization, his resume would fall short as his win-loss record and postseason exploits are pillars of his case.  At the same time, how many of the five Yankees championships he helped secure would have been won without him?  

Of course, we have not even mentioned Pettitte’s admitted use of Human Growth Hormone in the middle of his career.  For a player whose case is fringy to begin with, his PED use is probably too much to overcome in the current climate.  If he can hang around on the ballot for a full ten-year stretch, it is possible that changing views on both PED’s, and the modern starting pitcher, could help his chances in the long run.  For now, it’s hard to imagine him getting in any time soon.

13.  Gary Sheffield

JAWS:  49.3 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Gary Sheffield was born and raised in Tampa, Florida.  A 1986 graduate of Hillsborough High School, Sheffield was drafted sixth overall by the Milwaukee Brewers.  Originally a shortstop, Sheffield proved to be a highly advanced offensive player in his ascension through the Brewers system.  He made his big league debut late in 1988 at just 19.

The club shifted him to third base, in the big leagues, and outside of a three-win season in 1990, Sheffield struggled through most of his time with the Brewers.   By the end of the 1991 season, his career OPS+ was 95 while averaging just 90 games in his three full seasons.

In Spring Training, 1992 the Brewers traded Sheffield to the San Diego Padres.  With a clean start in a new organization, Sheffield thrived.  He won the N.L. batting title in 1992 with a line of .330/.385/.580, 168 OPS+.  In 1993, the Padres struggled, Sheffield slowed, and the All Star third baseman was traded to the Florida Marlins for a package including future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman.

Sheffield spent more time with the Marlins that anywhere else in his career.  The Marlins moved him to the outfield where he would remain for the rest of his career.  From 1993-1998, he hit .288/.426/.543, 156 OPS+ and produced 13.2 bWAR.  He led the N.L. in OBP (.465) and OPS+ (189) in 1996. 

An expansion team in 1993, the Marlins struggled to find their footing until 1997.  That year they won 92 games and the N.L. Wild Card en route to the World Series.  As the team’s best hitter in the regular season as well as the playoffs, no one played a larger role in Florida’s first World Series championship than Gary Sheffield.

Marlins ownership infamously tore down their championship core heading into 1998.  Sheffield was traded to the Dodgers as part of a massive package that temporarily resulted in Mike Piazza joining the Marlins.  

From 1998-2001 in Los Angeles, Sheffield remained one of the best hitters in baseball.  He posted a .312/.424/.573, 160 OPS+ line producing 17.0 bWAR.  The Dodgers never made the postseason during Sheffield’s tenure and traded him to the Braves before the 2002 season.

Sheffield posted 151 OPS+ over his two seasons in Atlanta.  The 2002-2003 Braves had nearly identical seasons winning 101 games, the N.L. East title, and ultimately losing in the first round of the playoffs.

A free agent after the 2003 season, Sheffield signed with the New York Yankees.  From 2004-2006 he produced 135 OPS+ and was part of three straight A.L. East championships.

After he was derailed by injuries in 2006, the Yankees traded him to the Detroit Tigers.  Primarily a DH during his two seasons in Detroit, Sheffield was still an above-average hitter, but had slowed considerably.  The Tigers released him prior to the 2009 season as the slugger sat with 499 career homers.

Sheffield quickly signed with the New York Mets.  He played 100 games in the final season of his career, hitting 10 homers to give him a career total of 509.

Hall of Fame?

In his remarkable 22-year career, Gary Sheffield hit .292/.393/.514, 140 OPS+.  His 509 career home runs rank 26th all-time.  Sheffield was a nine-time All Star who won five Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes seven times including three seasons in which he finished second or third (1992, 2003, 2004).

Sheffield ranks as the 23rd best right fielder in history by JAWS.  Although he ranks above 11 Hall of Famers at the position, he stands little chance of induction at this time.  

In 2004, Sheffield admitted to steroid use as part of the BALCO investigation.  Players with better statistical resumes who have been linked to steroid use have failed to secure the support necessary for election.  Like Pettitte, this reality is probably too much for Sheffield to overcome. 

Now in his fifth year of eligibility, Sheffield has some time for the ballot, and sentiment, to shift in his favor.  After securing just 11% of the vote in 2018, he may have too far to go in too short a time.

12.  Sammy Sosa

JAWS:  51.2 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Sammy Sosa was born and raised in San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic.  He signed as an amateur free agent with the Texas Rangers in July, 1985.  As a young player, Sosa was wiry strong and explosive, but raw.  His tantalizing physical tools allowed him to climb through the Rangers system.  Despite the obvious flaws in his game, notably a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, Sosa made his big league debut with Texas at 20.

That same season, the Rangers used Sosa as part of a package to land White Sox Franchise Phenom Harold Baines at the trade deadline.  Sosa continued to flash his physical talent with the White Sox, but failed to make significant progress in refining his game.  Sosa was essentially a replacement-level player during his time with the White Sox. 

Prior to the 1992 season, the Sox made a decision that would alter the fate of both Chicago franchises.  They traded Sammy Sosa to the Cubs as the headline piece for All Star outfielder George Bell.  At 32, Bell had just two seasons left in the big leagues while the 23-year-old Sosa would go on to become one of the best players in Cubs history.

Sosa steadily improved during his early years with the Cubs, settling in as an above-average hitter by 1993.  In 1995, Sosa began a streak of nine straight seasons in which he would received MVP votes.  He was a 30/30 player in both 1993 and 1995.  He hit 40 homers for the first time in 1996.

 Everything changed for Sammy Sosa, and Major League Baseball, in 1998.  During that famed summer, Sosa and Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire embarked on their epic chase of Roger Maris‘s single-season home run record.  McGwire finished with 70 to set the new record, but Sosa also broke the old record with 66 of his own.  Sosa led the league in runs (134) and RBI (158).  The Cubs won the N.L. Wild Card, and Sosa the MVP.

Sosa remained one of the most feared sluggers in baseball for years.  He hit 63 homers in 1999, and 64 in 2001, making him the only player in history with three 60-homer seasons.  When the Cubs won the N.L. Central in 2003, Sosa was still their best hitter.  

In 13 seasons with the Cubs, Sosa hit .284/.358/.569, 139 OPS+, and 545 homers.

His final years in Chicago were marred by a suspension for corking his bat, increased suspicion about steroid usage, and alienation of the organization he had carried for a decade. 

Sosa was traded to Baltimore before the 2006 season.  He sat out 2007.  He then returned to hit 21 homers for the Rangers in 2008 allowing him to eclipse the 600 mark for his career.

Hall of Fame?

In his 18-year career, Sammy Sosa hit .273/.344/.534, 128 OPS+.  His 609 career homers rank ninth all-time.  Sosa was a seven-time All Star who won six Silver Sluggers.  He received MVP votes nine times.  He finished second in 2001, and won the award during his incredible 1998 season.

Sosa ranks as the 18th best right fielder by JAWS, five spots ahead of Sheffield, and above two more Hall of Famers.  Despite his on-paper advantages, he has actually fared worse than Sheffield up to this point in the process.

Even more so than Sheffield, Sosa is a poster boy for the steroid era.  Despite suspicions that engulfed the late stages of his career, and a June, 2009 New York Times report claiming he tested positive in 2003, Sosa has remained evasive on the subject in retirement.  The issue remains the cause of friction with Cubs ownership to this day.

Now in his seventh year on the ballot, Sosa has even less time for things to swing in his favor than Sheffield.  He earned just 7.8% of the vote in 2018.

11.  Todd Helton

JAWS:  53.9 (54.7 Average HOF 1B)

Todd Helton was the 8th overall pick by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Tennessee in the 1995 draft.

He played his entire 17-year career with the Rockies.  His career line of .316/.414/.539, 133 OPS+, and 61.2 bWAR makes him the best player in franchise history.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Todd Helton’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

Todd Helton was a five-time All Star who won four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.  

Helton has a strong case for enshrinement in Cooperstown.  By JAWS, Helton ranks as the 15th best first baseman in history.  While that places him just below the lofty average mark for the position, he is surrounded by Hall of Famers on the list.

2019 is Helton’s first year on the ballot.  Now in his ninth year on the ballot, Larry Walker’s results provide a potential guide for the way Helton’s candidacy may be viewed.  Although modern metrics strip away ballpark context, baseball writers have long struggled to separate the Coors Field effect when evaluating Rockies players for awards.  Hitters are often over-penalized and pitchers under-rewarded. 

Walker is running out of time in his bid to be elected by the writers, but Helton figures to benefit in the long run as the writers grapple with Walker’s candidacy.  At some point, these two players will force BBWAA members to determine what, exactly, a Rockies hitter would have to do to earn their vote.  How preposterous do the numbers have to be?

In my world, both Helton and Walker are Hall of Fame players.  I am cautiously optimistic that they will each be recognized as such at some point in the future.