2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Chavez and Furcal

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

19. Eric Chavez

JAWS: 34.3 (55.7 Average HOF 3B)

Eric Chavez was drafted 10th overall by the Oakland Athletics out of Mount Carmel High School in San Diego, CA in 1996. A phenomenal talent, Chavez engineered a quick rise through the Oakland system. In 1997, he made his professional debut in High-A at 19. During his age-20 season, he conquered Double-A, Triple-A, and made his big league debut.

Heading into 1999, his age-21 season, Eric Chavez was ranked as the #3 prospect in baseball. He made the Athletics as the opening day third baseman, and never looked back.

Moneyball A’s

The start of Chavez’s career coincided with the beginning of the legendary Moneyball era in Oakland. Chavez would be at the center of a young core whose narrative would forever alter baseball.

Chavez quickly established himself as an above-average big leaguer despite his tender age. In 1999-2000, Chavez averaged 109 OPS+ and 2.2 bWAR. His defense quickly improved from solid to excellent. Meanwhile, Oakland was emerging as one of the best teams in baseball.

Beginning in 2001, Chavez took his game to another level. From 2001-2003, Chavez averaged .282/.345/.522, 127 OPS+, 38 doubles, 32 homers, 108 RBI, and 5.2 bWAR. He won three Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and received MVP votes twice.

The A’s made the playoffs every year from 2000-2003, but never advanced past the Division Series.  With his young core progressing into more expensive contracts, General Manager Billy Beane had to make decisions about where to allocate his scarce resources. 

Rather than resign former MVP shortstop Miguel Tejada after the 2003 season, Beane opted to put his money down on Chavez. In March, 2004, Chavez signed a six-year, $66 million contract extension to remain with the A’s.

Team Leader

The contract extension ultimately kept Chavez in Oakland through the 2010 season. Unfortunately, his days as a true superstar were numbered. In 2004, Chavez basically matched the previous three years, posting 5.5 bWAR while leading the A.L. in walks (95), winning his fourth Gold Glove in a row, and again receiving MVP votes. Oakland missed the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Injuries began to steadily chip away at Chavez’s physical capabilities. In 2005-2006, he won his fifth, and sixth, consecutive Gold Gloves. At the same time, his offensive production declined from star caliber to just a tick above-average at 107 OPS+. Oakland won the A.L. West in 2006, but once again fell short of the World Series.

Early Decline

The vast majority of Chavez’s career accomplishments took place prior to his age-29 season in 2007. From 2007-2010, Chavez averaged just 38 games per season at 85 OPS+. His absence was a devastating blow to an Oakland team that had committed a significant chunk of its payroll to him. The A’s never had another winning season with Chavez on the roster.

A free agent after 2010, Chavez knocked around for a few more years. He spent 2011-2012 with a pair of division winning Yankees teams. He was especially effective in 2012, posting 125 OPS+ as a part-time DH/corner bat.

In 2013-2014, Chavez played a combined 124 games for the Diamondbacks where he continued to struggle with his health. He retired after the 2014 season.

Hall of Fame?

Eric Chavez was a sneaky star player for much of the 2000s. He won six Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Somehow, he never made an All Star team despite receiving MVP votes every year from 2002-2005.

There is no question that injuries and a premature decline robbed him of any chance at Cooperstown. At the same time, even his 7-year peak falls well short of the average mark for Hall of Fame third baseman.

Chavez is likely to be one-and-done on the Hall of Fame ballot.

18. Rafael Furcal

JAWS: 35.1 (55.0 Average HOF SS)

A native of Loma de Cabrera, Dominican Republic, Rafael Furcal signed as an amateur free agent with the Atlanta Braves in November, 1996. At first glance, Furcal’s diminutive frame (he’s listed at 5’8″) obscured his tremendous physical talent. A switch-hitter with explosive speed, and arm strength, Furcal developed into an impressive multi-faceted contributor.

By 1999, his age-21 season, Furcal was rated #60 on Baseball America’s Top-100 prospects. A strong year across both class-A levels saw his stock rise to #8 the following year.

In 2000, the Braves were coming off their fifth straight division title, and a World Series defeat at the hands of the Yankees. For a contending team in desperate need of a shortstop, Furcal was a revelation. He forced his way to the big leagues in April despite no experience in the high minors. Furcal won the Rookie of the Year on the strength of league-average hitting, elite base-running, and strong defense. The Braves playoff streak continued.

Finding His Footing

Furcal’s offensive production regressed following his Rookie of the Year campaign. In 2001-2002, he was a well below-average hitter at 82 OPS+. Solid defense and base-running ensured he remained an acceptable starting shortstop, but the overall package was decidedly underwhelming. In the meantime, the Braves kept their streak of division titles alive.

From 2003-2005, Furcal leveled out his production. Consistently improved control of the strike zone allowed him to post average offensive numbers at .285/.348/.429, 101 OPS+. The defense and base running that established his foundation now propped the overall package up to star level at an average of 4.9 bWAR during this stretch. In 2003, was an N.L. All Star, and received MVP votes, for the first time.

The Braves won the N.L. East title in each of Furcal’s six seasons with the club. For all their regular season success, Atlanta only made it past the NLDS once in those years, and never made the World Series. Furcal hit free agency after the 2005 season.

Dodger Deal

In December, 2005, Furcal signed a 3-year, $39 million contract to play shortstop for the Dodgers. In 2006, Furcal delivered a performance in line with his recent averages at 4.4 bWAR, helping the Dodgers win the Wild Card in the process.

2007 was his worst season in six years. In 2008, he was excellent when healthy, but played just 36 regular season games. L.A. won the N.L. West anyway. Furcal returned in time for a run to the NLCS.

Furcal hit the open market again after 2008. He opted to sign another three-year contract to stay with the Dodgers. He averaged 3.8 bWAR in 2009-2010. The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Phillies in five games for the second straight year in 2009. In 2010, Furcal missed most of May, and August, but was productive enough when healthy to make the All Star team.

Unexpected Glory

A miserable start to 2011 for Furcal, and the Dodgers, resulted in a deadline deal to the Cardinals. When Furcal joined the Cardinals, the team was clinging to hope at 57-52. A seemingly rejuvenated Furcal returned to form over the final 50 games, providing a needed boost. The Cardinals won 90 games, and the N.L. Wild Card.

By the time October hit, Furcal had cemented himself as the every day shortstop and leadoff hitter for the Red Birds. Although he struggled overall during the playoffs, the Cardinals defied all the odds by defeating three teams with 96 or more wins to win the World Series.

The End

Following the World Series, Furcal re-upped for two more years with St. Louis. A hot start in 2012 earned him his third, and final, All Star selection. Tommy John surgery ended his 2013 in spring training.

At age 36, he battled his way back for a nine-game cameo with the Marlins in 2014. The following year he played seven minor league games in the Royals system before retiring.

Hall of Fame?

Rafael Furcal was a three-time All Star who also has a Rookie of the Year and World Series ring to his credit. He was an exciting player to watch. He was also a winner who played on nine playoff teams.

Like Chavez, Furcal will ultimately fall short of enshrinement in Cooperstown. He neither meets the peak, nor longevity requirements of the Hall of Fame. Also like Chavez, he was talented, well-rounded player who had a memorable career.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Josh Beckett

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

20. Josh Beckett

JAWS: 33.4 (61.5 Average HOF SP)

Josh Beckett was drafted 2nd overall by the Florida Marlins out of Spring High School in Texas in 1999. The hype around Josh Beckett, the prospect, was tremendous. As a 6’5″ flamethrower from Texas, Beckett was anointed as the heir apparent to the throne previously occupied by Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan.

Baseball America immediately ranked Beckett as the 19th best prospect in the game. Beckett was excellent in his professional debut at Low-A, and jumped to 3rd in Baseball America’s 2001 list. When he torched High-A and Double-A en route to an impressive four-game big league debut, he was recognized as the top prospect in the game heading into 2002.

Beckett made the opening day starting rotation in 2002. Just 22, Beckett was the youngest, and arguably most precocious talent among an impressive group of young players. The Marlins won just 79 games, but the experience gained across the roster would pay dividends.

2003: An Improbable Run

The 2003 Marlins would continue to be carried by a group of future Franchise Phenoms. Beckett was joined by first baseman Derrek Lee, second baseman Luis Castillo, and third baseman Mike Lowell in an impressive homegrown core. The Marlins also made a number of significant changes to their roster heading into 2003. The addition of future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez as a free agent transformed the every day lineup. Speedy leadoff man Juan Pierre was acquired from Colorado. Rookie phenom Dontrelle Willis was a revelation in the rotation.

91 wins was good enough for the Marlins to win the N.L. Wild Card in 2003. Although he missed a hanful of starts for the second straight year, by the time the calendar hit October, Josh Beckett was regarded as Florida’s ace.

Beckett was out-dueled by San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt in the opening game of the NLDS. Florida rebounded to win the next three games– including two one-run wins– to advance to the NLCS against the Cubs.

Beckett again started the series opener. This time, he was battered by a strong Cubs lineup. The Marlins offense picked up the slack. An 11th inning homer by Lowell secured the opener. The Cubs took the next three games to jump out to a seemingly insurmountable 3-1 series lead.

Game five in Florida was a rematch of game one with Beckett opposed by Carlos Zambrano. This time it was all Josh Beckett. The budding ace went the distance, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out 11. Florida won 4-0 to stay alive.

Game six in Chicago was destined to be etched into baseball lore. Down 3-0 in the 8th, the Marlins– aided by fate— broke through for eight runs to even the series.

Game seven in Chicago was a slug fest early. A three-run top of the 5th put Florida ahead 6-5. Jack McKeon turned to Beckett– on just two days– rest to preserve the lead. Beckett worked four innings, allowing just a solo homer to pinch hitter Troy O’Leary in the 7th before handing the ball to closer Ugueth Urbina to nail down the win.

2003 World Series Champions

The 2003 World Series pitted the Marlins against the undisputed powerhouse of the day, the New York Yankees. The Marlins managed a split of the first two games in New York. Beckett was excellent in game three, allowing two runs over 7.1 innings while striking out 10. Unfortunately, future Hall of Famer Mike Mussina was better, and the Yankees won 6-1 to take the series lead.

Florida won games four and five by a combined three runs to retake the series lead. The series returned to New York for a game six showdown between Beckett and one of the Yankees all-time greats, Andy Pettitte. Beckett was masterful. He went the distance, scattering just five hits and two walks while striking out nine. In hostile territory, Josh Beckett shutout the New York Yankees, and the Marlins captured the second world championship in franchise history. Josh Beckett was voted World Series MVP.

2004-2005

Following the October glory of 2003, Beckett and the Marlins remained strong, but couldn’t quite recreate the magic. The Marlins won 83 games and missed the playoffs in both 2004-2005. For his part, Beckett averaged 168 innings of 3.57 ERA/113 ERA+.

With their championship core either gone, aging, or becoming more expensive, the Marlins elected to retool after 2005. In November, they traded Beckett and Lowell to the Boston Red Sox for a package headlined by another future Marlins great, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez.

Red Sox Nation

Entering his age 26 season, Josh Beckett already had a World Series MVP to his credit. His arrival in Boston carried lofty expectations for one of baseball’s most rabid fan bases.

The adjustment to the American League did not go smoothly. Although Beckett set career highs in innings (204.2) and wins (16) for the 2006 Red Sox, his 5.01 ERA was also the worst of his career. The Red Sox finished third in the A.L. East, and missed the playoffs.

Delivering on the Promise

In 2007, Josh Beckett followed the worst season of his young career with the best. Beckett led the A.L. in wins (20) and FIP (3.08) as the ace of a Red Sox club that won 96 games, and the division crown. Beckett made his first All Star team, finished second in the Cy Young race, and received MVP votes for the only time in his career.

In the 2007 post season, Josh Beckett did exactly what he was brought to Boston to do– deliver a championship.

In the opening game of the ALDS, Beckett scattered four hits while striking out eight to shutout the Angels. Boston swept the series.

In game one of the ALCS, Beckett held Cleveland to two runs over six innings to earn the win. The Indians shocked the world by taking the next three games to put Boston on the brink of the elimination. With their season on the line, Josh Beckett delivered again. In Cleveland for game five, Beckett allowed one run while striking out 11 over eight innings to keep the Red Sox alive. When the series returned home, the Red Sox throttled the upstart Indians to punch their ticket to the fall classic for the second time in four years. Josh Beckett was the ALCS MVP.

The 2007 World Series started in Boston with Josh Beckett on the mound for the Red Sox against the Colorado Rockies. Beckett allowed one run over seven innings while striking out nine for his fourth win of the post season. The Red Sox swept the Rockies to win the 7th championship in franchise history.

Red Sox Revelry

The years following the 2007 championship were a mixed bag for Beckett and the Red Sox. From 2008-2011, Beckett averaged 177 innings, 12 wins, 3.98 ERA, 113 ERA+, and 3.3 bWAR. He sandwiched All Star seasons in 2009 and 2011 with arguably the worst season of his career in 2010. The Red Sox averaged 92+ wins, but finished with just two Wild Card berths, and zero pennants to show for it.

In 2012, the Red Sox limped through a disappointing mess of a season. The infamous Chicken and Beer Scandal of 2011 had already claimed casualties from the Boston brain trust with Francona and G.M. Theo Epstein run out of town at season’s end. Just 53-51 at the end of July, things unraveled quickly. By August 25, the team had fallen to 60-67. Beckett was unceremoniously shipped to the Dodgers along with fellow stars Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez in a massive salary dump.

Hollywood

From 2012-2014, Beckett was mostly respectable (when available) for the Dodgers. In 35 total starts, he posted 3.39 ERA/106 ERA+. The Dodgers won N.L. West titles in 2013-2014, but injuries ended Beckett’s seasons early both years and he never appeared in a playoff game for the team. Beckett retired after the 2014 season.

Hall of Fame?

Josh Beckett’s career was, at times, everything from brilliant to frustrating and ultimately, short-lived. Over the course of his stints in Florida and Boston, Beckett often seemed to be either a brilliant revelation, or an exasperating disappointment, depending on the moment.

By his late-20s, his supreme talent, and developing resume, gave Beckett more than a puncher’s chance at the Hall of Fame. Instead, Josh Beckett was out of baseball by 35.

For all of the unrealized potential, Josh Beckett will be remembered. He will be remembered as an ace on two championship teams for two different organizations. He will be remembered for what he was: one of the best post season pitchers of the 2000s. He will be remembered for what he wasn’t: a true all-time great– a Hall of Famer.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Soriano and Roberts

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

22. Alfonso Soriano

JAWS: 27.8 (53.6 Average HOF LF)

A native of baseball hotbed San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, Alfonso Soriano’s route to the big leagues was unconventional. Rather than sign with a big league club during his teenage years like most of his countrymen, Soriano instead began his professional career with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of the Japanese Central League.

A salary dispute led Soriano to challenge his contract status in Japan. Major League Baseball declared Soriano a free agent and he signed with the Yankees in September, 1998.

Soriano’s explosive athleticism immediately created high hopes in New York. His unique blend of power and speed was truly exciting. Soriano was quickly recognized as a top prospect. Baseball America ranked him 39th, or better, every year from 1999-2001.

The Yankee Years

Soriano became the Yankees every day second baseman in 2001. Although he was a below average hitter, and replacement level player overall, it was clear he had serious potential.

Soriano broke out in 2002. He was selected to the All Star team and led the A.L. in runs (128), hits (209), and stolen bases (41) while also clubbing 51 doubles, 39 homers, and 102 RBI. He finished third in the MVP race and won the Silver Slugger.

Soriano made the All Star team, and received MVP votes, again in 2003. The Yankees won 101 games en route to their ninth straight playoff appearance. After losing to the Marlins in the World Series, the New York front office was rabid with urgency to get back to the top of the mountain.

In the winter of 2004, the Texas Rangers did the unthinkable and made the reigning MVP, Alex Rodriguez, available in trade talks. A frenzied bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox ensued. In the end, it was New York’s willingness to include Soriano, himself a budding All Star talent, that sealed the deal for the Yankees.

Texas

In Texas, Soriano joined a talented young core of position players. While he was an All Star and Silver Slugger again in 2004-2005, his offensive production fell short of the level he had established the previous two seasons with the Yankees. At the same time, his defensive work at the keystone was increasingly scrutinized. As a team, the Rangers pitching was largely miserable, and they finished third both years.

2006 was Soriano’s final season before free agency. With the looming likelihood that he would test the open market, Texas opted to deal Soriano to the Nationals for a package of young players headlined by Brad Wilkerson.

Washington

In Washington, Soriano joined a club that had its own All Star second baseman, Jose Vidro. The Nationals moved Soriano to left field in deference to Vidro. Playing for a contract on a last place team, Soriano flourished. His 135 OPS+ was a career high. He was again an All Star and Silver Slugger while finishing sixth in the MVP race.

Coming off a career year, Soriano was in prime position to enter free agency. In November, 2006 he landed an 8-year, $136 million contract with the Cubs. In Chicago, Soriano was expected to the center piece of a rebuilding Cubs club that had immediate playoff aspirations.

136 Million Dollar Man

Expectations were high for Soriano, and the Cubs, entering 2007. Soriano largely delivered on those lofty expectations in the early years of his deal. The Cubs won back-to-back division titles in 2007-2008. Soriano averaged .291/.340/.547, 121 OPS+, and 3.1 bWAR while making the All Star team both years.

Soriano’s remaining time in Chicago was less pleasant. Although he was often an above-average hitter (107 OPS+ from 2009-2013), his best days were clearly behind him. While he was tolerable in the outfield, he was never quite good. His once dynamic power speed combo was reduced to a power-only profile. The power he did produce was the result of a free-swinging approach that included a below-average OBP, and an inconvenient number of strikeouts.

The Cubs failed to make the playoffs again during Soriano’s tenure. Searching for an offensive boost of their own in 2013, a struggling Yankees club traded for Soriano in July. Although he finished 2013 on a high note, Soriano struggled mightily in 2014. He was released that July and never played in the big leagues again.

Hall of Fame?

Alfonso Soriano was one of the most dynamic, and exciting players of the 2000s. From 2001-2008, he averaged .283/.330/.520, 117 OPS+, 38 doubles, 33 homers, 31 stolen bases, and 3.7 bWAR. He was an All Star every year from 2002-2008, and won four Silver Sluggers.

His eight-year peak certainly created the foundation for a potentially compelling Hall of Fame case. Unfortunately, his decline phase was not particularly graceful. While he remained a productive hitter, he was stylistically frustrating to watch. Because of the expectations associated with his contract, I suspect people remember too much of this phase of his career, and not enough of his prime.

Memories aside, the numbers paint a clear picture. Soriano was one of the better players of his decade, but well shy of Cooperstown standards.

21. Brian Roberts

JAWS: 29.2 (56.9 Average HOF 2B)

Brian Roberts was drafted 50th overall by the Baltimore Orioles out of the University of South Carolina in 1999. A polished switch-hitter and infielder with good speed, Roberts raced through the Baltimore system and made his big league debut just two years later.

Although he initially controlled the strike zone and made consistent contact, Roberts lacked meaningful power. He struggled to adjust to the big leagues, and produced just 68 OPS+ through his first 441 plate appearances in 2001-2002.

His offensive production improved to passable in 2003. From 2003-2004, Roberts averaged 89 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR while settling in as Baltimore’s every day second baseman. He led the A.L. with 50 doubles in 2004.

Breakout

2005 was a career year for Roberts. At age 27, he was one of the best hitters in the A.L. Roberts produced .314/.387/.514, 139 OPS+, and 7.3 bWAR. He made the All Star team for the first time. 2005 was also the only season in which Roberts received MVP votes.

Although he never had another year as good as 2005, Roberts remained a sneaky star level player for the rest of the decade. From 2005-2010, Roberts averaged .292/.368/.447, 114 OPS+, 40 doubles, 32 stolen bases, and 4.0 bWAR.

In 2007 he made his second All Star team, and led the league with 50 stolen bases. In 2009, he paced the circuit in doubles for the second time with 56.

Unfortunately, the best of his career was largely lost on the broader baseball community. From 2001-2011, Baltimore never won more than 78 games. While Roberts was often excellent, his teams were decidedly awful.

Decline

Roberts began a steep decline phase in 2011. Injuries quickly derailed his career. He played in just 39 games that season. In his final three seasons with the Orioles, Roberts averaged just 44 games per year and was largely ineffective when he did play. Baltimore did win the Wild Card in 2012, but Roberts was sidelined for the ALDS against the Yankees.

Roberts was a free agent for the first time in his career heading into 2014. He signed with the Yankees. Roberts was given first crack at the second base job among a group of fellow aging former stars. While he was respectable, the team struggled to keep its head above water. Roberts was released in August– just a matter of a few weeks after Alfonso Soriano as it turned out. He never played in the big leagues again.

Hall of Fame?

Brian Roberts was quietly excellent for most of a decade with the Orioles. He was largely underappreciated at the time– a product of playing on some of the worst Orioles teams ever.

By JAWS he is the 58th best second baseman in history. An excellent career to be sure, but well shy of Hall of Fame standards.

Like Soriano, Roberts is probably going to fall off the ballot after his first year. Both players had star caliber seasons. Neither player sustained that level of play long enough to build a Hall of Fame resume.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Carlos Pena

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

23. Carlos Pena

JAWS: 24.6 (54.8 Average HOF 1B)

Carlos Pena was drafted 10th overall by the Texas Rangers out of Northeastern University in Boston, MA in 1998. As a supremely talented left-handed hitter with excellent defensive chops, Pena quickly became regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball. He ranked in Baseball America’s top-100 prospects three times including top-10 rankings in 2001 and 2002.

Pena earned his first cup of coffee with the 2001 Rangers. Although he had shown excellent power and on-base skills in his minor league career, Texas elected to entrust their 1B/DH spots to a host of veteran sluggers. Following the 2001 season, Pena was traded to Oakland for a package of talented youngsters who ultimately made minimal impact in Texas.

Pena began his age-24 season as Oakland’s starting first baseman. After producing just 92 OPS+ through April and May, Pena was optioned back to Triple-A. With the team in the middle of a playoff race, the A’s used Pena as a key piece to land left-handed starter Ted Lilly in a three-team trade with the Yankees and Tigers.

Detroit

The rebuilding Tigers gave Pena a better opportunity to establish himself. Pena was an above-average hitter immediately upon his arrival in Detroit. Although he produced a cumulative OPS+ of 112 over parts of four seasons in Detroit, Pena was often viewed as a disappointment.

A miserable start to the 2005 season saw Pena sent back to Triple-A for half of his age-27 season. Although he rebounded in the second half, it was clear that Pena’s grasp on a job in Detroit was tenuous.

By 2006 the Tigers had built a roster that was prepared to contend for the post season. In a surprise move, the Tigers released Pena at the end of spring training. The Tigers moved forward with Chris Shelton and Marcus Thames as their primary 1B/DH options. The club won 95 games, a Wild Card berth, and ultimately the A.L. pennant. Pena was cast into the baseball wilderness.

The End?

Carlos Pena remained unemployed for three weeks following his release from Detroit. A month before his 28th birthday, Pena signed with the Yankees in April, 2006. Pena performed respectably at Triple-A Columbus until he was released in August. He latched onto the Boston Red Sox shortly thereafter and made a brief return to the big leagues late in the season.

Pena became a free agent after the 2006 season. In January 2007, he signed with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Tampa

The opportunity to reestablish his career in Tampa would transform Carlos Pena’s future. Entering his age-29 season, Pena was a former top prospect who appeared to be a bust. A career 111 OPS+ hitter who had produced just 5.5 bWAR over six years with four different clubs, Pena seemed every bit as likely to be out of the game in another year as he was to blow up into an MVP candidate.

2007 would be Carlos Pena’s career year. He hit .282/.411/.627, 172 OPS+ while setting career highs in homers (46), RBI (121), walks (103), and bWAR (7.2). Pena received MVP votes for the first time and won the Silver Slugger.

While he would never again match the heights of 2007, Pena remained productive in Tampa. From 2008-2010, he averaged .224/.353/.479, 122 OPS+, and 3.4 bWAR. He received MVP votes again in 2008 and also won the Gold Glove. In 2009 he made his only All Star team, and led the A.L. with 39 homers.

Carlos Pena was a key piece to some of the best teams in Tampa’s short history. His transformation from disappointing former top prospect to All Star mirrored the evolution of the entire organization. Tampa’s first winning season in its history came in 2008 (year 11). The club shocked the baseball world by winning 97 games, the A.L. East title, and the American League pennant. Carlos Pena was their best player. They won the division again in 2010 as well.

Act Three

A free agent after 2010, Pena left Tampa for one year with the Cubs. Although he essentially matched his average production from the previous three seasons, Pena was entering the year-to-year phase of his career.

He returned to Tampa for a disappointing reunion in 2012. Houston gave him a shot in 2013, but the magic had run out. He returned to Texas for a brief stint in 2014 before hanging them up for good.

Hall of Fame?

There are a number of similarities between Carlos Pena’s career, and that of ballot-mate Paul Konerko. Both players were first round picks who had to bounce around before reaching their potential with other clubs. Each was a former top prospect who was temporarily viewed as a disappointment before having a memorable career. All the way down to their identical JAWS scores, and ultimate destiny to fall short of Cooperstown, Konerko and Pena were very much in the same class.

Like Konerko, Carlos Pena will be remembered here as a Franchise Phenom as well. Pena will feature on the all-time Tampa Rays team upon its release.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Paul Konerko

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

24. Paul Konerko

JAWS: 24.6 (54.8 Average HOF 1B)

Paul Konerko was drafted 13th overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of Chaparral HS in Scottsdale, AZ in 1994. Although he was drafted as a catcher, Konerko shifted from behind the plate while still in the minors. He dabbled at third base, and in left field, but settled at first. Konerko’s offensive production carried him to Baseball America Top-100 prospect status each year from 1995-1998 with a peak rank of #2 before his final season in the minors.

The Dodgers gave Konerko brief tastes of the big leagues in 1997 and 1998. Despite his minor league success, he failed to impress. With veteran first baseman Eric Karros entrenched, and his own viability at other positions very much in question, Konerko became expendable. In July, 1998 the Dodgers traded Konerko to the Reds for All Star closer Jeff Shaw and promising left-hander Dennys Reyes.

The 22-year-old Konerko similarly failed to impress during his brief stint with Cincinnati. With Sean Casey, himself 23, in the process of establishing his career with the Reds, Konerko was again blocked. In November, 1998, the Reds dealt Konerko to the White Sox for another future All Star, and Franchise Phenom (for Seattle), center fielder Mike Cameron.

Home on the South Side

The White Sox immediately installed Konerko in their every day lineup beginning in 1999. Given the opportunity to settle into the big leagues, Konerko quickly established himself as an above-average hitter. From 1999-2002, Konerko averaged .294/.356/.499, 118 OPS+, 26 homers, and 95 RBI. He was an integral part of some ferocious White Sox lineups including the 2000 A.L. Central champions.

After making his first All Star team in 2002, Konerko struggled mightily in 2003. As the Sox battled for a playoff spot, Konerko limped to a miserable 83 OPS+ and -0.6 bWAR. The Sox finished four games behind the Twins. Fans and media alike were highly critical of their star first baseman.

Konerko rebounded in a big way in 2004. He set career highs with 41 homers and 117 RBI. At age 28, Konerko received MVP votes for the first time in his career. The toughness and resiliency he showed in bouncing back from his failed 2003 season endeared him to White Sox fans as never before.

2005

Coming off a huge season in 2004, Konerko was poised to lead the 2005 White Sox on one of the most improbable championship runs in history. Konerko produced a near carbon copy of 2004 with another 40 homer, 100 RBI campaign. The Sox won 99 games and the A.L. Central title. Konerko made his second All Star team and finished sixth in the MVP race.

“Paulie” was an absolute force during the 2005 post season. He clubbed two homers and drove in four runs in Chicago’s sweep of the Red Sox in the ALDS. His tie-breaking two run shot in sixth inning of Game 3 was an exclamation point on a dominant series for the Sox.

Konerko added two more homers and seven RBI in the ALCS as the Sox defeated the Angels in five games. He was named the series MVP.

Chicago held the home field advantage in the World Series against the Houston Astros. The Sox took the opener, but the Astros threatened to tie the series in Game 2. With Houston leading 4-2 with two outs in the seventh, Konerko stepped to the plate with the bases loaded.

The Sox hung on to win Game 2. They completed the sweep in Houston to win the franchise’s first world series championship since 1917. Paul Konerko was an instrumental figure in ending the 87-year drought between White Sox championships– the second-longest such drought in baseball history.

Captain

Following the glory of 2005, the White Sox named Konerko the fourth Team Captain in franchise history. His first-class work ethic and integrity would continue to cement his legacy as one of the most beloved players in White Sox history.

From 2006-2012, Konerko remained one of the most consistently productive hitters in baseball. He averaged .287/.369/.510, 129 OPS+, 30 homers, and 92 RBI. Konerko made four more All Star teams, and received MVP votes three times during this stretch.

The Sox made the playoffs just once more during Konerko’s tenure as A.L. Central champions in 2008.

Despite declining production, Konerko hung around in a leadership capacity in 2013-2014 before retiring after 16 seasons with the White Sox.

Hall of Fame?

Paul Konerko is one of the greatest, and most popular players in White Sox history. He is the starting first baseman and fifth place hitter on our all-time White Sox team here at Franchise Phenoms. His place in White Sox lore is firmly established.

Unfortunately for Konerko and White Sox fans alike, it appears that 2020 will be his lone year on the ballot. He falls well below the established standards for Hall of Fame first basemen.

Even if Konerko never earns enshrinement in Cooperstown, there is little doubt that he will go down in history as one of the all-time great White Sox. For Chicago fans who lived through the lean years between championships, and for those who witnessed the improbable euphoria of 2005, Paul Konerko’s memory will endure.

2020 H.O.F. Ballot: Billy Wagner

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2020.  

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  

In the coming weeks, we will break down the top-25 players on the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot.

25. Billy Wagner

JAWS: 23.7 (32.5 Average HOF RP)

Billy Wagner was drafted 12th overall by the Houston Astros out of Ferrum College in Virginia in 1993. Although he was largely deployed as a starter on his climb through the Astros system, Wagner’s future was in the bullpen. After a single hitter cameo in the big leagues in 1995, Wagner was in the big leagues for good by June of 1996.

Listed at 5-10, 180 pounds, the undersized lefty pumped upper 90s fastballs past hitters while seldom needing a second pitch. For 16 seasons, Billy Wagner was one of the top relief pitchers in the game.

In nine seasons with the Astros, Wagner was utterly dominant. In 464 games, he finished with a 171 ERA+. He is Houston’s all-time leader in saves (225), WHIP (1.04), K/9 (12.4), and H/9 (5.9). Wagner was a three-time All Star in Houston. In 1999 he was Rolaids Relief Man, and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He received MVP votes in 1999 and 2003.

Although the Astros made the playoffs four times with Wagner as their closer, the club was never able to advance past the NLDS.

Heading Back East

Following the 2003 season, with Wagner becoming more expensive, the Astros traded him to the Phillies. Wagner was better still in Philadelphia. In 2004-2005, Wagner posted a 240 ERA+. He was an All Star in 2005.

Wagner became a free agent after the 2005 season. He signed a four-year contract with the Mets. Wagner remained dominant during his early years in New York. He finished with a 183 ERA+ mark over 183 games for the Mets. He was twice an All Star, and finished sixth in the 2006 Cy Young voting.

The Mets made the post season once during Wagner’s tenure. In 2006, Wagner recorded two saves in the Mets sweep of the Dodgers in the NLDS. The Mets lost a heartbreaking seven-game NLCS to the eventual world champion Cardinals.

Wagner’s age-37 season was marred by injuries. He made just two appearances for the Mets in 2009 before he was dealt to the Red Sox in August.

He closed out his career with a dominant 2010 campaign with the Braves. Wagner made the All Star team for the seventh time in his career, and helped the Braves to a Wild Card berth.

Hall of Fame?

Billy Wagner is, without question, one of the best relievers in history. From 1996-2008, Wagner’s consistent dominance of the late innings in the National League was a given.

Wagner is now in his fifth season on the ballot. He is the top remaining eligible relief pitcher by JAWS. Unfortunately, he faces a steep uphill climb after earning just 16.7% of the vote in 2019.

The pure reliever is still a relatively new problem for voters to grapple with. The candidacies of Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman both resulted in quick enshrinement. It is clear that Wagner is not viewed on par with those late-inning legends. Still, Wagner is sixth all-time in saves and seventh among relievers in Win Probability Added.

The likelihood is that Wagner continues to gain votes in the coming years, but ultimately falls short of election by the BBWAA. Lee Smith‘s selection by the Veteran’s Committee in 2019 may be his best-case scenario.

All-Time Orioles Team

We’re back with the All-Time Orioles Team.

Franchise Overview

One of the original American League franchises, Baltimore is actually the team’s third city. After a one season stint as the Milwaukee Brewers, and 52 years as the St. Louis Browns, the Baltimore Orioles joined the American League in 1954.

The Orioles .474 winning percentage ranks just 24th in history. Their 14 playoff appearances are tied for 13th all-time.

The Orioles have made playoff appearances in just 11.76% of their total seasons, a mark that is tied for 21st in history.

Their three World Series championships are tied for 10th most in history with five other teams.

The franchise’s golden age came while under the leadership of legendary manager Earl Weaver. After taking over midway through the 1968 season, Weaver led the Orioles to 1480 victories, an incredible .583 winning percentage, six playoff appearances, five American League pennants, and two world championships (1970 and 1983).

Recent years have been tougher. The Orioles have not made the World Series since their 1983 title. They have had just 11 winning seasons, and five playoff appearances in the last 36 seasons. In a particularly ugly stretch, Baltimore had 14 straight losing seasons from 1998-2011.

Hitters

Starting LineupNamePositionB/TbWAR/650OPS+Years Played
1.Ken SingletonRF (LF)S/R3.21351975-84
2.Ken WilliamsLF (CF)L/R5.81441918-27
3.George SislerDH (1B)L/L4.81311915-27
4.Eddie Murray1BS/R4.61391977-88, 96
5.Chris HoilesCR/R4.71191989-98
6.Cal Ripken Jr.SS (3B)R/R4.91121981-2001
7.Brooks Robinson3BR/R4.41041955-77
8.Bobby Wallace2B (SS/3B)R/R5.21031899-1916
9.Paul BlairCFR/R4.3991964-76
Bench
OFBoog Powell1B/LFL/R3.41351961-74
OFBrady AndersonCF/LF/RFL/L3.11101988-2001
INMark BelangerSSR/R4.2681965-81
INHarlond Clift3BR/R3.91181934-43
CRick DempseyCR/R3.4891976-86, 92

The best teams in Orioles history were excellent all-around teams built around balanced offense, and pitching staffs supported by quality defenders. The Orioles all-time hitters rank just 23rd overall in OPS+.

Of course, position players do more than just swing the bat. The all-time Orioles roster is loaded with elite defensive players as well.

Legendary Left Side

Shortstop Cal Ripken Jr. is the best player in Orioles history. In 21 seasons with Baltimore, “The Iron Man” crafted a legacy that has endured long after he played his last game. There will never be another player quite like Cal Ripken Jr.

Ripken is best known for setting a seemingly unbreakable record of 2632 consecutive games played. In the process of setting that record, he unseated another all-time great in Lou Gehrig, and established a reputation as a beloved fan favorite.

Ripken was a 19-time All Star. He won eight Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves. In 1983, he won his first American League MVP while leading the league in runs, hits, and doubles. Ripken propelled the Orioles to a World Series title that year. He won his second MVP in 1991 while leading the league in total bases. He led the A.L. in bWAR in 1983, 1984, and 1991.

Ripken ranks top-10 all-time in assists (3rd), at-bats (4th), Defensive bWAR (4th), games at shortstop (5th), and games played (8th).

Joining Ripken on the left side of the Orioles infield is third baseman Brooks Robinson. Like Ripken, Robinson spent his entire career with the Orioles. In 23 seasons, Robinson made a case as the best defensive third baseman in history.

Robinson was an 18-time All Star, and won 16 Gold Gloves at the hot corner. He was a key player on six Orioles playoff teams, including four A.L. pennant winners, and two world champions (1966 and 1970). He was the A.L. MVP in 1964. Robinson was also the top A.L. position player by bWAR in 1962 and 1964.

Robinson’s 16 Gold Gloves are the most of any non-pitcher in history. He is the all-time leader in games, putouts, assists, and double plays at third base. He also leads third basemen in a variety of advanced defensive metrics. Robinson ranks third all-time in defensive bWAR.

The Rest of the Infield

Hall of Famer Eddie Murray mans first base on the all-time Orioles team. One of the best switch-hitters in history, Murray spent 13 seasons mashing in Baltimore. He was a seven-time All Star with the Orioles. Murray also won three Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. Murray finished sixth, or better, in the MVP voting every season from 1980-1985. Like Ripken, he was one of the stars of the 1983 champions.

Hall of Fame first baseman George Sisler serves as the D.H. Sisler spent 12 seasons as one of the best hitters in the A.L. with the St. Louis Browns. Sisler won batting titles in 1920 (.407) and 1922 (.420). He is one of only three hitters to have multiple .400 seasons since 1900. He also had league-leading seasons in stolen bases (3x), hits (2x), doubles (2x), and runs. Sisler was the A.L. MVP in 1922.

Hall of Famer Bobby Wallace slots in at second base despite playing the bulk of his career at shortstop. Wallace starred for 15 seasons with the St. Louis Browns. He led the league in assists twice with the Browns. His 48.5 bWAR is fifth among position players in franchise history.

Catcher Chris Hoiles played his entire 10-year career with the Orioles. A solid all-around catcher, Hoiles was the primary backstop on Baltimore’s back-to-back playoff teams in 1996-1997. He received MVP votes in 1993.

The Outfield

Left fielder Ken Williams spent 10 seasons with the Browns. In 1922 he paced the A.L. in homers (39), RBI (155), and total bases (367). He received MVP votes in 1923-1924. Williams is the franchise’s all-time leader in OPS (.961) and slugging (.558).

Center fielder Paul Blair was an excellent all-around player over 13 seasons in Baltimore. Blair was a two-time All Star and won eight Gold Gloves. He received MVP votes four times. Like Robinson, Blair was part of the glue that held together six playoff teams, four pennant winners, and two world champions (1966 and 1970). He led the A.L. with 12 triples in 1967.

Ken Singleton plays right field and hits leadoff on the all-time Orioles team. Singleton was an offensive force for most of his 10 seasons in Baltimore. He was a three-time All Star and received MVP votes six times including a pair of top-three finishes. Singleton helped lead the Orioles to the World Series twice, including a key role as the DH on the 1983 champions.

Bench

Boog Powell spent 14 seasons in Baltimore. Powell was an integral player on six Orioles playoff teams including the 1966 and 1970 world champions. Powell won the MVP in 1970 and received votes for the award four other times with the Orioles. The hulking left-handed slugger made four straight All Star teams from 1968-1971. He led the league in slugging (.606) in 1964.

Brady Anderson spent 14 seasons roaming the Baltimore outfield. Anderson was a key cog in Baltimore’s back-to-back playoff appearances in 1996-1997. 1996 was his career year as he set highs in hits (172), homers (50), and RBI (110). Anderson was a three-time All Star who received MVP votes twice. A gritty player whose hard-nosed play endeared himself to Orioles fans, Anderson led the league in HBP three times in his career. He is Baltimore’s all-time leader in HBP (148) and Power-Speed # (248.7).

Shortstop Mark Belanger spent 17 seasons dazzling Orioles fans with his spectacular glove work. “The Blade” was an eight-time Gold Glover. He led the A.L. in defensive bWAR six straight seasons from 1973-1978. Belanger was the primary shortstop on six Orioles playoff teams including the 1970 world champions. He was a 1976 A.L. All Star. Belanger ranks second all-time in defensive bWAR trailing Ozzie Smith.

Third baseman Harlond Clift played 10 seasons for the St. Louis Browns. A solid defender, Clift led A.L. third basemen in assists twice and putouts three times. Clift led the A.L. with 111 walks in 1939. He made his only All Star team in 1937. No hitter in franchise history had more plate appearances (6354) with a higher OBP (.394). His 145 runs in 1936 is the highest mark in team history.

Rick Dempsey spent 12 seasons behind the plate for the Orioles. Dempsey was the primary backstop on two pennant winners including the 1983 world champions. Dempsey had a sterling defensive reputation. Modern metrics agree– more than half of his career value came from his work behind the plate.

Pitchers

Starting RotationNameB/TERA+Years Played
1.Jim PalmerR/R1261965-84
2.Mike MussinaR/R1301991-2000
3.Urban ShockerR/R1271918-24
4.Dave McNallyR/L1081962-74
5.Jack PowellR/R1091902-03, 05-12
Bullpen
LRMike FlanaganL/L1001975-87, 91-92
RPSammy StewartR/R1141978-85
RPEddie WattR/R1231966-73
RPDick HallR/R1251961-66, 69-71
SUZack BrittonL/L1302011-18
CLGregg OlsonR/R1761988-93

Baltimore’s all-time starting rotation is carried by a strong trio of aces. Overall, the starters rank 17th in average ERA+ at 120.

Starting Rotation

Baltimore’s all-time rotation is led by Hall of Famer Jim Palmer. Palmer spent his entire 19-year career with the Orioles. He is one of 10 pitchers in history to win three, or more, Cy Youngs. In addition to his three wins, he boasted five other top-five finishes. He is 10th all-time with 3.57 Cy Young shares.

Palmer was one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. A six-time All Star, he also won four Gold Gloves. Palmer compiled eight 20-win seasons in his career. He also led the A.L. multiple times in innings (4x), wins (3x), and ERA (2x).

Palmer is Baltimore’s all-time leader in pitching bWAR (67.5), wins (268), games (558), innings (3948), strikeouts (2212), complete games (211), and shutouts (53). He was part of eight Baltimore playoff teams, six A.L. pennant winners, and three world champions (1966, 1970, 1983).

Fellow Hall of Famer Mike Mussina represents perhaps the greatest regret of the all-time Orioles roster. Baltimore’s 1st round pick out of Stanford in 1990, Mussina debuted in 1991. He spent the first 10 years of his career with the Orioles. The team made two playoff appearances (1996-1997) during his tenure.

Mussina was a five-time All Star with the Orioles. He finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting seven times while in Baltimore. He also won four Gold Gloves. Mussina paced the A.L. once each in wins, innings, and BB/9 with Baltimore.

Following the 2000 season, Mussina signed as a free agent with the division rival New York Yankees where he spent the final eight seasons of his storied career. Baltimore has not developed a pitcher of his caliber since.

Right-hander Urban Shocker pitched seven excellent seasons for the Browns. A noted spit-baller, Shocker had four straight 20-win seasons from 1920-1923. Shocker had excellent control, leading the league in K/BB ratio and BB/9 in 1922-1923. He received MVP votes in both seasons. He also led the league once each in wins, strikeouts, FIP, and saves with the Browns.

Southpaw Dave McNally pitched 13 seasons for the Orioles. McNally utilized one of the best breaking balls of his era to support Palmer in some of the best Orioles rotations of all-time. He contributed to six playoff teams, four pennant winners, and two world champions (1966 and 1970). A three-time All Star, McNally finished fourth, or better, in the Cy Young voting three times. He also received MVP votes four times. McNally had four straight 20-win seasons from 1968-1971. He led the A.L. in wins and WHIP once each.

Right-hander Jack Powell pitched 10 years for the Browns including two 20-win seasons. His 32.0 bWAR is fourth all-time among the franchise’s pitchers.

Bullpen

The bullpen’s average ERA+ is 128, ranking 21st among all-time teams.

Southpaw Mike Flanagan pitched 15 years in Baltimore, most often as a starter, though he did make 122 relief appearances. Flanagan won the 1979 Cy Young, leading the league with 23 wins and 5 shutouts. He was an All Star in 1978. He was also a key piece of the 1983 world championship starting rotation. Following his retirement, Flanagan served the Orioles as a broadcaster, pitching coach, and executive vice president of baseball operations.

Sammy Stewart pitched eight years for the Orioles. A versatile arm, Stewart started just 25 games, but pitched at least 93 innings seven times. He led the A.L. in ERA (2.32) in 1981. He was second in appearances during the 1983 championship season.

Eddie Watt pitched eight seasons in Baltimore. He was the team’s most effective reliever for most of his tenure. Watt was part of five playoff teams, four pennant winners, and two world champions (1966 and 1970).

Dick Hall began his career as an outfielder for three seasons with the Pirates before earning a new lease on life as a pitcher. He spent nine seasons with the Orioles. The 6’6″ Hall was a great athlete with excellent control. Hall is Baltimore’s all-time leader in WHIP (1.01), K/BB (3.96), and BB/9 (1.47). He was a key reliever on the 1970 champions.

Zack Britton spent the first eight seasons of his career with the Orioles. A top prospect as a starter, Britton shifted to the bullpen full time in his fourth season. The left-hander used his turbo sinker to become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball for a resurgent Orioles team in the mid 2010s. He made the All Star for the first time in 2015 before turning in an all-time great reliever season the following year. In 2016, Britton was again an All Star. In 67 innings he had a 0.54 ERA and led the A.L. with 47 saves. He finished 3rd in the Cy Young and 11th in the MVP voting.

Gregg Olson used a devastating curve ball to compile a franchise best 160 saves in six seasons with the Orioles. In 1989, Olson won the Rookie of the Year Award while also finishing 6th in the Cy Young and 12th in the MVP race. He was an All Star in 1990.

All-Time Pirates Team

After a break for some Hall of Fame chatter, we’re back to our series on All-Time Teams with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Franchise Overview

The Pittsburgh Pirates originated in 1882 as the Pittsburgh Alleghenys of the American Association. In 1887, the Alleghenys joined the National League. They changed their name to the Pirates in 1891. Only the Braves, and Cubs have played more big league seasons than the Pirates.

The Pirates .504 franchise winning percentage is 10th best in history. They also rank 10th in history with 17 playoff appearances.

Given their comparatively long history, however, the picture isn’t quite so pretty. The Pirates rank just 20th in playoff appearance percentage. They have reached the postseason in just 12.41% of their total seasons.

Only six teams have won more World Series championships than Pittsburgh’s five (1909, 1925, 1960, 1971, 1979).

The Pirates were once the class of the National League, making six playoff appearances in the 1970s.

Recent years have been tougher. The Pirates have made the playoffs just six times since their last World Series in 1979. They have only four winning seasons since their last NLCS appearance in 1992. From 1993-2012, the Pirates had 20 straight losing seasons, and were generally regarded as one of the worst teams in the game.

Hitters

Starting LineupNamePositionB/TbWAR/650OPS+Years Played
1.Arky Vaughan3B (SS)L/R6.91411932-41
2.Honus WagnerSS (RF/3B/1B)R/R7.91541900-17
3.Willie Stargell1B (LF)L/L4.21471962-82
4.Ralph KinerLFR/R6.21571973-83
5.Roberto ClementeCF (RF)R/R6.11301955-72
6.Paul WanerRFL/L4.81361926-40
7.Jason KendallCR/R3.91081996-2004
8.Bill Mazeroski2BR/R2.9841956-72
9.PitcherP
Bench
OFFred ClarkeLFL/R5.01361900-15
OFMax CareyCF/LF/RFS/R3.71111910-26
OFAndrew McCutchenCF/RFR/R4.51362009-17
INPie Traynor3BR/R2.91071920-37
INBob Elliott3B/RFR/R3.41191939-46
CManny SanguillenCR/R3.71051967-76, 78-80

The Pirates have a long tradition of excellent offensive players. Their hitters have the eighth best average OPS+ among all-time teams.

The five best players in Pittsburgh history by bWAR are all position players, including two of the game’s inner-circle icons.

Swashbuckling Superstars

Shortstop Honus Wagner is arguably the best shortstop in baseball history. Wagner played 18 seasons in Pittsburgh during which time he established his legacy as one of the best all around players of all-time.

Wagner won eight batting titles. He paced the National League in a variety of categories at different points in his career including doubles (7x), slugging (6x), OBP (4x), RBI (4x), stolen bases (4x), triples (3x), hits (2x), and runs (2x).

Wagner’s 130.8 bWAR is 10th in history. He is also in the all-time top-10 in triples (3rd), putouts at shortstop (4th), hits (8th), doubles (9th), and stolen bases (10th). He was also a driving force behind the Pirates 1909 World Series championship.

Roberto Clemente starts in center field despite playing most of his career in right. Clemente played his entire 18-year career in Pittsburgh. He was a National League All Star in 12 different seasons, and won 12 Gold Gloves. He was one of the best players on two World Series teams more than a decade apart in 1960 and 1971.

Clemente won the 1966 NL MVP, and finished in the top-10 seven other times. He won four batting titles in addition to leading the league in hits twice, and triples once.

Clemente played more games in right field than any other player in history. He ranks second all time in assists and putouts at the position.

His tragic death on New Years Eve, 1972 cut short the career of one of the most spectacular players of his generation. It also established a lasting legacy of community service that lives on in the Roberto Clemente Award.

The Rest of the Infield

Hall of Famer Arky Vaughan would have a case to be the starting shortstop on virtually every other franchise’s all-time team. Here he defers to the best in history, and slides over to third base. In 10 seasons with the Pirates, Vaughan was an eight-time All Star who had two third place MVP finishes. He led the league in OBP, walks, runs, and triples three times each. In 1935, he paced the NL in every triple-slash category with a .385/.491/.607 line, good for 190 OPS+.

Hall of Famer Willie Stargell starts at first base. Pops played his entire 21-year career with the Pirates. One of the most feared sluggers of his generation, Stargell was a seven-time All Star. He paced the NL in homers and OPS+ twice during his career. He also led the league in slugging, doubles, and RBI once each. Stargell was the 1979 NL MVP and had six other top-10 finishes. He was regarded as one of the best players on Pittsburgh’s World Series winners in 1971 and 1979.

Second baseman Bill Mazeroski rounds out Pittsburgh’s Hall of Fame infield. Maz played his entire 17-year career for the Pirates. He made the All Star team in seven different seasons. One of the finest defensive second basemen in history, Maz won eight Gold Gloves. He ranks 5th in career assists at second base, and 7th in putouts. Like Clemente, he contributed to both the 1960 and 1971 championships.

Jason Kendall starts behind the plate. Kendall spent nine seasons in Pittsburgh, and was a three-time All Star for the Pirates. A gritty player who endeared himself to fans, he had 31 HBP in back-to-back seasons, leading the league in 1998.

The Rest of the Outfield

Hall of Famer Paul Waner starts in right field. He ranks third in Pirates history with 68.3 bWAR in 15 seasons. Waner was a four-time All Star who won three batting titles. He led the league twice each in runs, hits, doubles, and triples. He was the 1927 National League MVP and had four other top-10 finishes.

Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner gets the nod in left. Kiner’s entire career lasted just 10 years, eight of which were in Pittsburgh. Despite his relatively brief tenure, Kiner was truly dominate with the Pirates. He led the league in homers every season from 1946-1952. During that same stretch, he also led the league in OPS+, walks, and slugging three times each, and OBP, runs, and RBI once each. He was an All Star in six straight seasons, and had five straight top-10 MVP finishes.

Bench

Hall of Fame outfielder Fred Clarke narrowly missed the starting lineup. In 15 seasons with the Pirates, Clarke led the league in OPS+ twice as well as doubles, triples, walks, and slugging once each. Clarke was one of the best hitters on the 1909 championship team. As the club’s manager from 1900-1915, Clarke amassed 1,422 wins, a .595 winning percentage, four NL pennants, and the 1909 World Series, making him the most successful manager in franchise history as well.

Hall of Fame outfielder Max Carey played 17 seasons in Pittsburgh. He is 9th in history with 738 stolen bases. 688 of them came as a member of the Pirates, making him the franchise’s all-time leader. He received MVP votes three times, and was one of the best players on the 1925 World Series winner.

Andrew McCutchen rounds out the Pirates star-studded outfield corps. Cutch played nine seasons in Pittsburgh, and fueled three straight playoff teams from 2012-2015. He made five straight All Star teams while winning four Silver Sluggers and a Gold Glove, from 2011-2015. McCutchen finished in the top-five of the MVP voting every year from 2012-2015, winning the award in 2013. He led the league in OPS+, OBP, and hits once each during his career.

Hall of Fame third baseman Pie Traynor had six top-10 MVP finishes in 17 seasons with the Pirates. Traynor was an All Star in 1933-34. His 19 triples led the league in 1923. Like Carey, Traynor was a driving force behind the 1925 championship. Like Clarke, he also served as the club’s manager. From 1934-39, Traynor amassed a 457-406 record as the Pirates skipper.

Bob Elliott spent eight seasons playing third base and right field for the Pirates. He was a three-time All Star and finished in the top-10 for MVP thrice as well. Elliott made three more All Star appearances, and won the 1947 MVP after the Pirates traded him to the Boston Braves.

Manny Sanguillen spent 12 seasons behind the plate in Pittsburgh. He was a three-time All Star for the Pirates. Sanguillen anchored the great Pirates teams of the 1970s, including the 1971 champions. He was a role-player on the 1979 champs as well. Sanguillen ranks fourth all-time in bWAR among players born in Panama.

Pitchers

Starting RotationNameB/TERA+Years Played
1.Wilbur CooperR/L1201912-24
2.Sam LeeverR/R1231898-1910
3.Babe AdamsL/R1181907-26
4.John CandelariaL/L1171975-85, 93
5.Bob FriendR/R1081951-65
Bullpen
LRRoy FaceR/R1101953-68
RPAl McBeanR/R1131961-68, 70
RPMike WilliamsR/R1191998-2003
RPSalomon TorresR/R1202002-07
SUDave GiustiR/R1211970-76
CLKent TekulveR/R1391974-85

Pittsburgh’s all-time pitching staff lacks the star power of its every day lineup. The average ERA+ of the Pirates starting rotation ranks just 20th among all-time teams. They are also the oldest team without a single Hall of Fame pitcher on its all-time staff.

Starting Rotation

Left-hander Wilbur Cooper spent 13 seasons with the Pirates. Cooper had four 20-win campaigns. He is Pittsburgh’s all-time leader in wins (202) and complete games (263).

Sam Leever spent his entire 13-year career in Pittsburgh. The 5-10 right-hander worked a league-leading 379 innings in 1899. In 1903, he won the ERA Title at 2.06; his 159 ERA+ was also best in the NL.

Curve ball specialist, Babe Adams spent 19 seasons in Pittsburgh. Between 1911-1922, Adams led the league in WHIP five times, FIP, BB/9, and K/BB four times each, and ERA+ once. He is the Pirates all-time leader in pitching bWAR (49.8), and shutouts (44). He was a member of the starting rotation for the 1909 World Champs, and hung around long enough to contribute to the 1925 team as well.

Lefty John Candelaria pitched 12 seasons for the Pirates. The “Candy Man” enjoyed a career-year in 1977. He went 20-5 and led the NL with a 2.34 ERA, and 169 ERA+. It was his only All Star season, and the only year in which he earned Cy Young and MVP votes. Despite the lack of league-wide recognition in subsequent years, he was the best pitcher on Pittsburgh’s 1979 championship team.

Right-hander Bob Friend made the All Star team in three of his 15 seasons with the Pirates. A consummate workhorse during his career, Friend is the Pirates all-time leader in starts (477), innings (3,480.1), and strikeouts (1,682). He led the league in innings twice, and wins, ERA+, FIP, and K/BB once each during his career. He finished third in the 1958 Cy Young voting. Friend was the ace of the 1960 World Series championship rotation.

Bullpen

Pittsburgh’s all-time bullpen is even less impressive than its starting rotation. The average 120 ERA+ of the team’s all-time relief corps ranks 29th overall.

Kent Tekulve is Pittsburgh’s all-time closer. In 12 seasons with the Pirates, Tekulve led the league in appearances, and games finished, three times. He finished fifth in the Cy Young voting in both 1978-79, and was an All Star in 1980. He earned saves in three of the four Pirates wins in the 1979 World Series. His 158 saves rank second in Pirates history.

After six seasons as a mediocre starter with Houston, right-hander Dave Giusti became one of the best relievers in baseball. In seven seasons with the Pirates, Giusti had three top-10 Cy Young finishes. In 1971, he led the league with 30 saves for the NL East champs. During the playoffs, Giusti hurled 10.2 scoreless innings, and earned three saves, to help the Pirates to a World Series title. He was an All Star in 1973.

Once a top prospect in the Giants system, Salomon Torres washed out of American affiliated baseball from ages 26-29. At 30, after a stint in Korea, he resurfaced with the Pirates. In six seasons with Pittsburgh, Torres was one of the most durable, and underrated, relievers in the National League. He led the league with 94 appearances in 2006.

Like Torres, Mike Williams took the long route to big league stardom. A 14th round draft pick in 1990, Williams was on his third organization by the time he emerged as a stellar reliever with the Pirates at age 29. Williams spent six seasons in Pittsburgh, including five as the primary closer. He was an All Star in 2002-2003.

Right-hander Al McBean spent nine seasons with the Pirates. Working primarily out of the bullpen, McBean hurled 1016 above-average innings. He is the most accomplished pitcher in history from the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Roy Face gets the final spot in Pittsburgh’s bullpen. An under-sized right-hander, Face spent 15 seasons in Pittsburgh. As a member of the Pirates, he led the league in games finished four times, saves thrice, and appearances twice. In 1959, he finished an incredible 18-1 without starting a game. He was an All Star each season from 1959-61. In 1960, Face helped pitch Pittsburgh to a World Series title, saving three of the four wins over the Yankees. He is Pittsburgh’s all-time leader in saves (186), and games finished (547).

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (1-2)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.    

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series: 

Players 3-5 by JAWS. Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Larry Walker

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

2. Roger Clemens

JAWS: 102.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Roger Clemens was born in Dayton, Ohio.  When he was as sophomore in high school, he moved to Sugar Land, Texas. After graduating from Spring Woods High School in Houston, Clemens attended San Jacinto Junior College before transferring to the University of Texas. After two excellent seasons at Texas, the Boston Red Sox selected him 19th overall in the 1983 draft.

As an advanced college arm, Clemens rose quickly through the Boston system. He made his big league debut in May, 1984. Clemens quickly established himself as one of the most promising young arms in the game.

By 1986, Clemens ascended to the top of the baseball world. In 33 starts, he led the league in wins (24), ERA (2.48), and WHIP (0.97). The Red Sox cruised to the A.L. East title and advanced to the World Series before losing to the Mets. He was the unanimous A.L. Cy Young winner and took 19 of 28 first-place votes for MVP to secure that honor as well.

Clemens was again dominant in 1987.  In 36 starts, he finished with a 2.97 ERA and 256 strikeouts in 281.2 innings.  He led the league in wins (20), complete games (18), shutouts (7), FIP (2.91), and strikeout/walk ratio (3.08).  He received 21 of 28 first-place votes to win his second straight Cy Young.

In his late-20s, Clemens would solidify his legacy as one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history.  From 1988-1992, Clemens posted an average line of 253 innings, 18 wins, 236 strikeouts, 2.62 ERA, 159 ERA+, 2.53 FIP, and 8.0 bWAR.  He was an All Star in four of the five seasons and finished sixth, or better, in the Cy Young voting in each of his All Star seasons. 

The Red Sox won the A.L. East in both 1988 and 1990.  Both times they were swept by the Oakland Athletics in the ALCS.  

Clemens won his third, and final, Cy Young with the Red Sox in 1991.  He led the league in ERA (2.62), innings (271.1), strikeouts (241), and ERA+ (165).    

From 1993-1996, Clemens clearly slowed down a bit as he entered his 30s.  He was healthy enough to average 186 innings per season, and effective enough to post a 130 ERA+ over that stretch.  Although he was still one of the best pitchers in the game, he appeared to be trending the wrong direction.

When Clemens hit the open-market as a free agent after the 1996 season, both he and the team seemed ready for a change.  The best Red Sox pitcher since Cy Young signed a three-year contract with the division-rival Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto

Clearly motivated by the doubters in Boston, and nationwide, Clemens responded in a big way.  During his two seasons with Toronto, he was again the best pitcher in baseball.  Clemens won back-to-back Cy Youngs for the second time in his career winning 41 games and posting an absurd 196 ERA+ in the process.

Even with the best pitcher on the planet, Toronto failed to make the playoffs in 1997-1998.  With just one year remaining on his contract, Toronto dealt Clemens to the New York Yankees just before the 1999 season.  

New York

From 1999-2003, Clemens alternated brilliance and mediocrity in New York.  He averaged 114 ERA+ over that stretch and was twice an All Star.  He won his sixth Cy Young on the strength of a 20-3 record in 2001. 

The Yankees made the postseason every year, and advanced to the World Series four times.  In 1999 and 2000, Roger Clemens helped pitch Boston’s greatest rival to World Series championships.  It was salt in the wounds of a Red Sox Nation still burdened by the Curse of the Bambino.

Houston

A free agent again after 2003, Clemens was headed for his age-41 season.  Although it appeared he would retire, Clemens instead opted to follow his friend and teammate Andy Pettitte to the Houston Astros.

Clemens took to the National League very well, compiling a 38-18 record and 180 ERA+ over three seasons in Houston.  He won his seventh, and final, Cy Young in 2004. He was just the fourth player at the time to win the award in both leagues.  He helped pitch the Astros to their first World Series appearance in franchise history in 2005, but they were swept by the Chicago White Sox.

Semi-Retirement and Retirement

By 2006, Clemens was looking for opportunities to pitch for contenders with reduced overall levels of commitment as he apparently contemplated outright retirement.  Both 2006 with Houston, and 2007 in a return engagement with the Yankees, were shortened seasons in which Clemens did not pitch until June. 

Although he was still effective in these reduced seasons, the rigors of his brilliant 24-year career had taken their toll.

Roger Clemens retired after the 2007 season.  

Hall of Fame?

Roger Clemens is one of the few pitchers in history for whom you could make a legitimate case as the best hurler of all-time.  

Over his incredible 24 seasons in the big leagues, Clemens cemented his place among baseball’s all-time greats. 

Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards, the most in history.  His 139.0 bWAR as a pitcher is third-most in history, and the most since integration.  He is third all-time with 4672 strikeouts, and ninth in wins at 354.

For all of his on-field brilliance, Clemens is held back by a variety of other factors that have cast a dark cloud over his legacy.  His personal temperament and character have been called into question in a variety of contexts.  On the baseball side specifically, the court of public opinion has pretty clearly judged him guilty of steroid use during his career as well.   

Each new round of Hall of Fame balloting has the potential to provide new information for how the public perception of his career may, or may not, be changing.  Clemens climbed to 57.3% of the ballot in 2018.  With four years remaining, it is unclear whether or not he will be able to make up the precious ground needed to get him to the 75% mark required for enshrinement in Cooperstown.

As the baseball world continues to try to sort through the mess left in the aftermath of the Steroid Era, Clemens’s legacy remains in limbo.  Regardless of one’s personal opinion on how to judge these players, Roger Clemens is one of the most accomplished pitchers in big league history.  However you choose to remember him, he will be remembered.  In the end, that may be all that’s left for the Rocket.

1. Barry Bonds

JAWS: 117.8 (53.5 Average HOF LF)

Barry Bonds was born into Major League Baseball. The son of All Star outfielder Bobby Bonds, Barry was a second round pick of the San Francisco Giants out of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo in 1982. When the Bonds family and the Giants ended up $5,000 apart in the negotiations for his signing bonus, Barry enrolled at Arizona State. After an excellent career for the Sun Devils, Barry was drafted sixth overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1985. Bonds began the 1986 season in Triple-A, but was in the big leagues by June.

Bonds immediately established himself as one of the best all around players in the game. His broad base of tools and skills allowed him to average 124 OPS+ and 5.9 bWAR from 1986-1989. Although the Pirates turned in just one winning season in his first four, Bonds emerged as the center piece of a young, talented roster that would dominate the N.L. East in the early 90s.

1990 marked the first of three straight N.L. East championships for the Pirates. Each time they were defeated in the NLCS, first by the Cincinnati Reds, then by the Atlanta Braves in back-to-back seasons. Bonds won his first MVP award in 1990 when he led the league in slugging (.565) and OPS+ (170) while hitting 33 homers and stealing 52 bases. In 1991, he followed it up with league leading marks in OBP (.410) and OPS+ (160) en route to a second place MVP finish. In 1992, he won his second MVP after leading the league in runs (109), walks (127), OBP (.456), slugging (.624), and OPS+ (204).

San Francisco

When Barry Bonds hit free agency after the 1992 season, he was unquestionably the best player available. Entering his age-28 season, he was still young, but his personality, and asking price, limited the number of teams willing to pursue him. The new ownership group in San Francisco signed Bonds to the largest contract in baseball at $43 million over six years.

In San Francisco, Bonds remained one of the most transcendent players in the game. Over the life of his initial contract from 1993-1998, Bonds averaged .307/.445/.617, 182 OPS+, 39 homers, and 32 stolen bases. He was an All Star each season, and won his third MVP in 1993. Despite his brilliant performance, the Giants reached the playoffs just once, a division championship followed by first round defeat in 1997.

Following the 1998 home run craze, baseball had clearly undergone a paradigm shift. The high tide of offensive explosion experienced league wide during the previous decade swept the nation, including Barry Bonds.

By 2000, Bonds, now 35, was poised to take his game to another level. From 2000-2004, Bonds averaged .339/.535/.781, 241 OPS+, 52 homers, 174 walks, and 10.2 bWAR. It was the most utterly dominant stretch of offensive play in baseball history. He won the MVP each year from 2001-2004. The Giants made the playoffs in 2000, 2002, and 2003, peaking with an N.L. pennant in 2002.

Old age and injuries slowed Bonds into his 40s. Although no longer the otherworldly force he had been earlier in the decade, he was still among the best hitters in the game. In his final three seasons, from 2005-2007, Bonds averaged .274/.464/.561, 163 OPS+, but just 90 games. After he broke Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record in late 2007, his career came to an ignominious end. With mounting legal troubles presenting an ever-present cloud over his play, Bonds was not offered a contract to play in 2008. Despite coming off a season in which he led the league in walks (132), and OBP (.480), Barry Bonds never played again.

Hall of Fame?

Barry Bonds is arguably the best player to ever play Major League Baseball. His 162.8 bWAR is fourth best in history, and the highest of any player since integration. His seven MVP awards are the most in history (no other player has more than three). He is baseball’s all-time leader in home runs (762), and walks (2,558). He ranks in the top five in a host of other categories.

Like Clemens, the entirety of the argument around Bonds’s place in baseball history is centered on his steroid use during his peak seasons.

Bonds and Clemens are both trending fairly well in the ballots that have been made publicly available so far. Unfortunately, they have not gained much support from returning voters, a metric which pretty clearly indicates that many are not changing their opinions on the candidacies of two of the game’s greatest players.

The symmetry of their careers and candidacies is remarkable. Each player has a claim to the title of best player in history on his respective side of the ball. Each player dominated the game on a level that may never be matched. In the end, their fates are inextricably tied together. They have trended almost identically in the Hall of Fame balloting, and it’s not hard to see that this is a neither, or both, proposition with respect to Cooperstown.

For Hall of Fame junkies, there is perhaps no more important issue to monitor over the coming years.

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot (3-5)

Hall of Fame election season is upon us!  As members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America begin to publicize their ballots, we will gain a clearer understanding of this winter’s landscape leading into a January announcement of the class of 2019.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has become the closest thing to an accepted standard by which we can compare current candidates to players who have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.    

Today we continue our break down of the top-25 players on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Check out the previous installments in the series: 

Players 6-8 by JAWS. Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, and Edgar Martinez

Players 9-10 by JAWS. Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones

Players 11-15 by JAWS. Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, and Lance Berkman.

Players 16-20 by JAWS. Jeff Kent, Roy Oswalt, Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, and Miguel Tejada

Players 21-25 by JAWS. Placido Polanco, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lowe, and Freddy Garcia

5. Larry Walker

JAWS: 58.7 (56.8 Average HOF RF)

Larry Walker signed with the Montreal Expos as an amateur free agent out of British Columbia in November, 1984.

Walker made his big league debut with the Expos. Over six seasons in Montreal, he produced a .281/.353/.483 line, 128 OPS+, and 21.1 bWAR.

Heading into 1995, Walker signed a free agent contract with the Colorado Rockies. In 10 seasons with Colorado, he produced a .334/.426/.618 line, 147 OPS+, and 48.3 bWAR. He was one of the best all around players in the game during his time with the Rockies.

Walker spent the final two seasons of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. He remained an excellent hitter when healthy, posting a 134 OPS+ in 2004-2005. Walker helped the Cardinals reach the playoffs in both years.

I have already posted a detailed recap of Larry Walker’s career as part of the Rockies Mount RushWAR.

Hall of Fame?

In his 17-year career, Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.565, 141 OPS+. A true five-tool talent, Walker contributed in every facet of the game. He was a five-time All Star who won seven Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, and three batting titles. He received MVP votes eight times, winning the award in 1997.

Walker ranks as the 10th best right fielder in history by JAWS. He is above the average of Hall of Fame right fielders, giving serious weight to his candidacy. Every right fielder with a higher JAWS score than Walker is already enshrined in Cooperstown.

2019 is Walker’s ninth year on the ballot. His candidacy seems to have suffered from a combination of the Coors Field effect, and the number of his seasons that were cut short by injuries. 

He did experience a surge last year, jumping from 21.9% of the vote in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018.  With two years remaining, he has significant ground to cover. It appears that he will make substantial gains this year, but it’s unclear if he will be able to close the gap to the elusive 75% mark.

For those who saw him play, Larry Walker’s tremendous physical talent placed him among the game’s all-time great five-tool players.  Larry Walker was a Hall of Fame player.  Hopefully he receives the formal honors that go with it.

4. Mike Mussina

JAWS: 63.8 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Mike Mussina was born and raised in Central Pennsylvania. A 1987 graduate of Montoursville High School, Mussina was drafted in the 11th round by the Orioles that June. Rather than sign a professional contract, he enrolled at Stanford. In 1990, after his Junior season, Mussina was once again drafted by Baltimore, this time with the 20th overall pick.

As an advanced college arm, Mussina was sent directly to Double-A after signing, and reached Triple-A by the end of his draft year. Baseball America ranked him their #19 prospect heading into 1991. Mussina returned to Triple-A Rochester for some additional seasoning. After 19 minor league starts, he made his big league debut in August, 1991.

Mussina was immediately one of the best pitchers in the American League. After a strong showing in his rookie season, “Moose” made the All Star team for the first time in 1992. He would receive that honor four more times as a member of the Orioles.

In 1996-1997, Mussina led Baltimore’s pitching staff to back-to-back playoff appearances, first as a Wild Card, then to their first A.L. East title in 14 seasons. The Orioles were defeated in the ALDS both years.

Although the Orioles struggled during Mussina’s final three seasons in Baltimore, Moose remained one of the best pitchers in the American League.

In 10 seasons with the Orioles, Mussina went 147-81 with a 3.53 ERA, and 130 ERA+. After 2000, heading into his age-32 season, Mussina hit the free agent market as one of the most sought-after hurlers in the game. Much to the chagrin of Orioles fans, Mussina inked a massive six year, $87 million contract with their division rivals, the New York Yankees.

Mussina spent the last eight years of his career in the Bronx. In 2001, he made good on the first year of his new contract with a 17-11 record, and a league-leading 2.92 FIP. His 7.1 bWAR was tops on a team full of superstars that would go on to win the American League pennant.

The Yankees made the playoffs in each of Mussina’s first seven seasons with the club. When they made it back to the World Series in 2003, Mussina was again the best player on the roster at 6.6 bWAR.

In his late-30s, Mussina was more often an average pitcher than a star. From 2004-2008, he averaged 30 starts, 14 wins, 179 innings, and 107 ERA+. He retired after the 2008 season, despite coming off his first 20-win season, and finishing with his best ERA+ (131) since his first year in New York.

Hall of Fame?

Over the course of his 18-year career, Mike Mussina was one of the most consistently excellent, and durable starters in the game. He finished with a career record of 270-153, 3.68 ERA, and 123 ERA+.

Moose was a five-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, FIP, and walk rate once each during his career. Although he never won a Cy Young, he finished six, or better, nine times including a second place finish in 1999. He was also an excellent fielder, winning seven Gold Gloves.

JAWS ranks Mussina as the 29th best starting pitcher in history, above the average for Hall of Fame starters.

Although he never quite had the same stretch of dominance as the most legendary starters in history, Mike Mussina is a Hall of Famer. For 18 seasons he was one of the most reliably excellent pitchers in the game, all while working in the American League East during the peak of the steroid era.

Now in his sixth year on the ballot, Mussina appears nearly certain of eventual induction. After earning 63.5% of the vote in 2018, he is gaining additional support, and could be elected as soon as this year.

3. Curt Schilling

JAWS: 64.1 (61.8 Average HOF SP)

Curt Schilling was born in Anchorage, Alaska. Schilling’s father, a sergeant in the U.S. Army, relocated his family several time during Curt’s youth. As something of a late-bloomer, Schilling went undrafted out of Shadown Mountain High School in Phoenix. He enrolled at Yavapai College, north of Phoenix, and was picked by the Boston Red Sox in the January phase of the 1986 draft. He signed in May and began his pro career that summer.

In July, 1988 the Red Sox packaged Schilling with another future star, outfielder Brady Anderson, in a deal to land veteran pitcher Mike Boddicker from the Baltimore Orioles. Boddicker was instrumental in helping the Red Sox secure the A.L. East title, but Baltimore would win the trade in the long term.

Schilling made his big league debut with Baltimore in 1988, but failed to stick with the club until a successful stint in the bullpen during the second half of 1990. That off season, Schilling was packaged with fellow future All Stars Steve Finley, and Pete Harnisch, in a deal to acquire slugger Glenn Davis from the Houston Astros.

After one mostly unremarkable season working out of the Houston bullpen, the Astros traded Schilling to the Phillies for right-hander Jason Grimsley. Although he would have a solid 15-year career of his own, Grimsley spent the entire 1992 season in the minors before Houston released him the following spring. Curt Schilling would go on to star for the Phillies.

In 1992, Schilling spent his age-25 season split between the bullpen and the starting rotation. By the time the dust had settled, he had worked 226.1 innings at 150 ERA+ with a league-leading 0.99 WHIP. Although he struggled to replicate that dominance over the next three seasons, Schilling did help pitch the Phillies to the 1993 World Series.

For all of his tremendous talent, Schilling struggled to realize his potential. Heading into his age-29 season in 1996, Schilling had 805 big league innings under his belt at 109 ERA+. Unexpectedly, 1996 would be the season that charted a new course for the remaining 12 seasons of his career.

From 1996-1999, Schilling averaged 30 starts, 222 innings, 238 strikeouts, and 137 ERA+. He made his first All Star team during his age-30 season.

Despite having one of the best starters in the league heading up their staff, the Phillies floundered. They rattled off seven straight losing seasons after their N.L. championship in 1993. In 2000, they traded their 33-year-old ace to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In Arizona, Schilling was paired with Randy Johnson to establish one of the most dominant 1-2 punches the game has ever seen.

In 2001, Johnson won the Cy Young, and Schilling finished second. The Diamondbacks won the N.L. West, and cruised into the playoffs ready to roll out their pair of aces. Schilling made six starts during the post season, including three in the World Series. He finished 4-0, allowing just six runs over 48.1 innings to help the Diamondbacks win the World Series in just their fourth season in existence. Schilling was the World Series MVP.

In 2002, Johnson and Schilling headed up the Cy Young balloting for the second straight season. The D’Backs won the division again, but were swept in the first round by the Cardinals.

Schilling was strong again in 2003, but after Arizona failed to make the playoffs, the club decided to go another direction. They agreed to deal Schilling to the Boston Red Sox. There, the 37-year-old ace was expected to form the same kind of dominant playoff duo that had brought a championship to the desert with another Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.

Schilling lived up to his end of the bargain, leading the A.L. with 21 wins, and a 5.80 K/BB ratio. The Red Sox made the playoffs as the Wild Card team. Schilling won three of his four playoff starts. The most famous of which was the legendary “Bloody Sock” Game Six of the ALCS as the Red Sox improbably won their third straight game to even the series with the Yankees. He also beat the Cardinals in Game Two of the World Series, putting a final stamp on his legacy as one of the most important players on the team that ended the Curse of the Bambino.

Schilling’s final season was 2007. At age 40, he made 24 regular season starts– enough to help Boston win the A.L. East title. He then went 3-0 in four playoff starts as the Red Sox won their second World Series in four years.

Hall of Fame?

Curt Schilling’s 20-year career was truly unique. Schilling compiled 79% of his career bWAR after the age of 30. His career arc defied logic making him an unlikely Hall of Fame candidate. He finished with a record of 216-146, 3.46 ERA, and 127 ERA+.

Schilling was a six-time All Star. He led the league in wins, innings, strikeouts, and WHIP twice each during his career. He finished fourth, or better, in the Cy Young voting four times, including three second-place finishes in a four year stretch from 2001-2004.

JAWS ranks Schilling as the 27th best starter in history, two spots ahead of Mussina. Despite his unique career path, Schilling is 15th all-time in strikeouts (3116). His 4.383 K/BB ratio is fifth best in history.

Now in his 7th year on the ballot, Schilling still has some ground to cover. After finishing with just 51.2% of the vote a year ago, his induction is not a foregone conclusion. His relative lack of support appears to be a combination of his low win total, a crowded ballot, and a series of controversial statements he has made since his retirement.

For whatever holes you might poke in Schilling’s resume, he is clearly a Hall of Famer based on merit alone. His late ascent to dominance should be easily counterbalanced by the extent of that dominance once he achieved it. Beyond that, his postseason resume, which includes World Series appearances with three different franchises, and a central role in winning three championships complete with signature moments, should remove any lingering doubt.